● GPU Gold Rush, Nvidia Korea Coup, Jobless Tsunami

Is It an AI Bubble or the Real Beginning: The Paradigm Shift of Physical AI and Digital Twin and Korea’s ‘HBM-Manufacturing-Platform’ Perfect Combo

This article contains three key points.

• Why agent and physical AI herald a “10× GPU era” and how semiconductor, power, and data center CAPEX will change.
• The real reason NVIDIA chose Korea: a virtuous cycle created by HBM, manufacturing lines, and digital twin platforms.
• The abrupt transformation of the job market: replacing juniors first, educating the AI-native generation, and a practical checklist for solopreneurs and startup strategies.

News Briefing: Key Issues at a Glance

• Key Point 1 | AI Bubble vs. AI Potential, the conclusion is “It’s just the beginning.”
  Expanding from generative AI to agent and physical AI, token usage in the inference phase surges by 10 to 100 times.
  This increases the full-stack data center demand for HBM, GPUs, networking, and storage.
  From an economic outlook, the correlation between semiconductor facility investment cycles and the global economy is strengthened.

• Key Point 2 | The background of NVIDIA partnering with Korea.
  A strong value chain is built with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading HBM supply, manufacturing testbeds (automotive, electronics, home appliances), and communication and cloud capabilities.
  Korea is best positioned to rapidly implement physical AI demonstrations based on digital twin/world models.

• Key Point 3 | The reality of labor market shock.
  AI will replace the tasks of juniors before those of seniors.
  Tasks such as consulting and research assistance, draft documentation and reports, coding boilerplates, simple design synthesis, basic video editing, and call center/kiosk operations can be quickly substituted with AI and robots.
  For mid-career individuals who can upskill or reskill, opportunities arise, while job seekers may face gaps in career development.

• Key Point 4 | Education and organizational guidelines.
  AI should be designed to be used in three stages: as a reference book → a debater → a colleague.
  For the AI-native generation, human thinking, writing, and discussion skills—as well as ethics and meta-cognition—are more important than technology.

• Key Point 5 | The transition in revenue models.
  Chat-based AI is evolving into a ‘super app’ that incorporates payment, commerce, and app stores.
  It diversifies revenue streams through advertising, commerce, and payment commissions, and with deeper inference (such as chain-of-thought), structural GPU expenditure increases.

Beyond the AI Bubble: Why ‘Physical AI’ Is Expanding the Field

• From text to action.
  AI now goes beyond merely “writing text”; team-based agents perform planning, exploration, and validation, while robots actually move.
  On-site demos and demo data are quickly created by capturing human movement, and are scaled up tens to hundreds of times through generation and augmentation.
  This process massively increases tokens, frames, and sensor data, making high-bandwidth HBM and ultra-low latency networking essential.

• A structure where inference becomes more expensive.
  When training data is depleted, the model compensates by “thinking longer” during inference to improve performance.
  Chain-of-thought reasoning, planning, and tool calls slow response times but improve quality, thereby increasing GPU time, power, and cooling budgets.
  This leads to a semiconductor supercycle and renewed expansion of data center CAPEX.

NVIDIA × Korea: The Virtuous Cycle Mechanism of HBM-Manufacturing-Platform

• HBM is the bottleneck.
  To maximize GPU performance, HBM bandwidth must increase correspondingly.
  Korean semiconductors, which have strong HBM supply capabilities, become the core pillar of global AI infrastructure.
  Variables such as semiconductors, inflation, interest rates, and the global economy determine investment and expansion timing.

• Accelerating on-site adoption speed with digital twins.
  Factories are replicated as digital twins, simulating problems in virtual space before reflecting them on the actual production line.
  Korea, with its numerous manufacturing sites in automotive, electronics, home appliances, and logistics, can immediately test and validate, shortening the training-deployment cycle.

• Platform strategy.
  NVIDIA plans to let “other companies” manufacture robots and vehicles while it dominates the standard with world models, digital twin, and development toolchains.
  Korean companies can bundle HBM, manufacturing, and platforms to convert a ‘physical AI factory’ into real revenue.

Job Market Shock: Who Is Affected First and How It Changes

• Areas hit first.
  Research assistance, drafting documents and reports, coding boilerplates, simple design synthesis, basic video editing, and call center/kiosk operations.
  AI cuts off the “experience accumulation path” for juniors before affecting seniors.

• However, upskilled seniors become even stronger.
  Those who understand business context can leverage AI to deliver higher quality and faster output.
  Leaders with decision-making, confirmation, and review capabilities can use AI as a leverage to exponentially boost team productivity.

• Guidelines for education and organizational management.
  Juniors: AI = reference book. Train to not simply copy answers but to compare, provide evidence, and verify sources.
  Mid-level/team leaders: AI = debater. Pose opposing hypotheses and explore counterexamples and risks together.
  Seniors/experts: AI = colleague. Broaden decision-making by incorporating new perspectives.
  AI natives: Prioritize human skills such as writing, discussion, ethics, and meta-cognition over technology, with practices in note-taking and verbal explanation.

Government and Corporate Checklist: Power, Infrastructure, and Regulations

• Focus first on power and cooling.
  Expanding GPUs means expanding power supply.
  Sufficient capacity in power transmission and distribution, a mix of renewable energy and nuclear power, high-density cooling (immersion or liquid), and PUE improvements are prerequisites.

• Simultaneous expansion of storage and networking.
  As long-term memory (LTM) and personalization become active, the demand for SSDs/flash expands alongside.
  InfiniBand/NVLink, high-performance Ethernet, and DPU/smart NICs are used to alleviate latency and throughput bottlenecks.

• Regulations and safety.
  Robots, autonomous driving, and smart factories must operate with regulations on safety, responsibility, and data governance.
  Design a pipeline within regulatory sandboxes that goes from on-site validation → standardization → proliferation.

Shift in Revenue Models: ‘Chat Super App’ and Commerce/Payments

• Incorporating commerce.
  Structures that allow for product recommendations to payment within chat-based AI are expanding.
  Advertising, affiliate commissions, and payment fees are being monetized.

• App Store model.
  Travel, reservations, and business tools operate within the AI app without external links.
  An ecosystem of plugins/mini-apps attracts developers and partners, increasing lifetime value.

• Monitoring bubble signals.
  A gap between profits and stock prices, long-term power and component bottlenecks, and prolonged model performance stagnation will trigger a value re-adjustment.
  However, the physical AI adoption curve is likely to support performance through manufacturing, logistics, and office automation.

Korean Corporate Strategy: Bundle from Semiconductors to Factories ‘End-to-End’

• Semiconductors.
  The timing and mix (HBM3E/next-generation) of HBM expansion, along with yield and packaging competitiveness, are key.
  Optimize CAPEX in line with changes in semiconductor prices, inflation, and interest rates.

• Manufacturing/Robotics.
  Define one task per production line as a digital twin, and calculate GPU input based on KPIs.
  Repeat the cycle of human demonstration → augmentation → simulation → implementation on the real line every 2–4 weeks for training and deployment.

• Communications/Cloud.
  Design an edge + private cloud pattern, addressing data locality, latency, and security simultaneously.
  Standardize industry-specific preset workflows (automotive, home appliances, logistics, retail) as solution products.

A Practical Roadmap for Job Seekers and Professionals

• Career strategy.
  To fill gaps in career development, it is realistic to build a 2–3-year track record as a solopreneur/micro-startup.
  Drill down on one micro-function in a global niche and immediately deploy it in multiple languages using LLMs.

• Execution checklist.
  Define the problem in one sentence → create a landing page → connect payment → automate consultations to launch an MVP within 2 weeks.
  First design the margin structure between the cost (LLM API/GPU time) and the selling price.
  Gather feedback from 10 customers → iterate improvements → accumulate references → pilot B2B projects → scale to standardized products.

Key Points Not Often Mentioned in Other YouTube or News Outlets

• A structural increase in inference costs creates the “next cycle.”
  After data depletion, performance improvements are achieved not through training but through “deeper inference,” prolonging GPU time, HBM, and power demand.

• Long-term memory (LTM) and personalization boost storage demand.
  The longer AI can remember user context, the more investments are made in SSDs/flash, data governance, and security.

• Korea is a powerhouse for testing with “small factories and diverse, low-volume” production lines.
  Not only major corporate lines but also numerous small and medium manufacturing lines are ideal for iterative physical AI training.
  The high on-site variability in Korea strengthens the world model through uniquely Korean challenges.

• Institutional design needs to be premised on the hollowing out of junior roles.
  As the ladder for career development disappears, public organizations and large corporations must enable pilots, residencies, and project-based internships to build track records.

Bubble Checks and Risk Management

• Monitor whether model performance stagnation is reflected in quarterly and annual results.
• Prepare expansion risk scenarios when power, HBM, and networking bottlenecks are not resolved.
• List sectors where deployment may be delayed due to licensing, copyright, and safety regulations.
• Check pathways for CAPEX and value adjustments if interest rates and inflation reaccelerate.

One-Line Conclusion

AI is still in its infancy rather than a bubble, and real demand comes from ‘Physical AI × Digital Twin.’
Korea is a rare hub that possesses HBM, manufacturing, and platforms all in one.
Jobs for juniors change rapidly, making education, upskilling, and solopreneur strategies a critical juncture for survival.

Execution Summary: What to Do Today

• Corporations: Launch one digital twin pilot and budget for power, networking, and storage specifications concurrently.
• Team Leaders: Create templates to use AI as a “debater” and standardize validation, counterexample, and risk questioning.
• Individuals: Launch one marketable micro MVP within 2 weeks, complete with multilingual pages and payment integration.
• Students/Job Seekers: Train in writing, discussion, and basic data ethics, and secure references through project-based portfolios.

The expansion of physical AI and digital twin technologies structurally increases demand for GPUs, HBM, and power. NVIDIA accelerates demonstration and adoption through Korea’s HBM, manufacturing, and platform ecosystem. Jobs are affected starting from juniors, and education must be designed in the threefold manner of reference book → debater → colleague. Chat-based AI evolves into a super app absorbing commerce and payments, and revenue models are diversifying. Strategies such as simultaneously budgeting for digital twin pilots and infrastructure for companies, and addressing career gaps with solopreneur-type MVPs for individuals, are effective. From an economic standpoint, it is essential to consider interactions between semiconductor cycles, the global economy, inflation, and interest rates.

[Related Posts…]

• HBM Supercycle and the Restructuring of Korean Semiconductors
• Digital Twin Opens Up a Revolution in Physical AI Factories

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [풀버전] “이제 진짜 시작된다” AI 시대, 누가 살아남는가? 일자리 절벽까지 내몰리는 상황 올 수 있다 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 김덕진 소장

---

● Japan Weaponizes Photoresists, Korea’s Chips Under Siege

Japanese Power Diplomacy Targets Semiconductors, Can It Hit Korea? 2025–2029 Supply Chain War and Investment Checklist

This article precisely addresses three points.

First, the direct impact route through photoresists, HBM, and advanced packaging where Japan’s “power diplomacy” may hit Korean semiconductors.

Second, the repercussions on the 2026 industry cycle, exchange rates, and profit cycles from China’s catch-up speed and price undercutting scenarios.

Third, how the global economic outlook for 2025–2029 and shifts in interest rates and exchange rates might change semiconductor and artificial intelligence demand and investment timing.

Additionally, it reveals geopolitical leverage seldom discussed in other news—namely, “Japan’s material/packaging bottleneck” and the linkage to “the Arctic sea route, Dokdo, and submarine cables.”

News Briefing: What’s Happening Now

• Following its remarks on Taiwan, the Japanese Cabinet is aggressively deploying export control cards with a stance of accepting possible Chinese retaliation.

• Japan, leveraging its high market share in core materials such as photoresists and EUV pellicles, is stepping up export license scrutiny on China, with movements indicating real supply restrictions.

• Amid U.S. sanctions, China is accelerating its self-reliance by advancing SMIC’s 7nm process, expanding domestic design firms (e.g., Cambricon) for AI accelerator production, and upgrading YMTC 3D NAND, while also gearing up for a price war (chicken game).

• Japan is bolstering its “memory + logic + packaging” trifecta through Micron HBM (in Hiroshima), TSMC’s Kumamoto (Japan) fab, and the roadmap for Rapidus 2nm.

• Korea is structurally exposed by facing both Japan’s material bottleneck and China’s price undercutting, potentially overlapping risks in the 2026 profit cycle and exchange rate.

Japanese Power Diplomacy: Strategic Realignment Centered on Semiconductors

Japan has truly embarked on leveraging “export controls” as a diplomatic tool.

The key lies in its control over bottlenecks in semiconductor materials and equipment.

• Photoresists (especially ArF and EUV): Firms like JSR, TOK, and Shin-Etsu dominate the market with very high global shares.

• EUV pellicles, photo mask blanks, fluorinated specialty chemicals, and ultra-high purity gases: Numerous Japanese companies such as Mitsui, AGC, Stella Chemifa, and Kanto hold the bottleneck.

• Etching and deposition equipment centered around Tokyo Electron (TEL) also determine process throughput.

The policy follows a two-track approach.

One is to check China, and the other is to expand domestic production in Japan.

• Against China: It is likely to follow the method of reducing actual availability of essential materials and equipment for advanced processes by intensifying license scrutiny.

• Domestic expansion: Relaxing regulations to convert farmland into factory sites and pushing Micron HBM, TSMC Japan, and Rapidus 2nm simultaneously with large-scale subsidies.

As a result, Japan can employ a “sandwich strategy” that delays China’s advancement while increasing Korea’s dependence on bottleneck materials, thereby boosting its negotiating leverage.

China’s Catch-Up: Closing the Technology Gap and the Risk of Price Undercutting

Despite U.S. sanctions, China is employing the classic strategy of “technological self-reliance + volume assault.”

• Logic: Efforts such as SMIC’s 7nm production and the expansion plans of domestic design firms like Cambricon for AI accelerators target both domestic replacement and the accumulation of learning effects.

• Memory: By advancing YMTC 3D NAND density and upgrading DRAM lines with CXMT/ChangXin and CXMT2, China is gradually closing the 1–3 year gap.

• Price strategy: As the technology gap reaches a critical point, it is highly likely that a chicken game will ensue with “subsidies + low prices” aimed at capturing global market share.

In this scenario, even if the Korean memory profit benefits from a dollar surge and won depreciation, a sharp downturn is possible in 2026.

Even if AI demand remains robust, if China’s price undercutting shakes the ASP (average selling price) of NAND and some DRAM, the overall margin mix across the value chain could shift.

US and Taiwan: At the Center of Supply Chain Restructuring

The United States, as a complementary measure to restraining China, favors expanding the roles of Japan and Taiwan.

TSMC’s Japanese fab, domestic scholarships and talent pipelines in Japan, and strengthened technology safeguards are all components of a strategy to secure both production and talent simultaneously.

Rapidus is driving forward as a national project with a goal for mass production of 2nm in 2027 based on its collaboration with IBM.

TSMC Japan, which started with image sensors and mature processes, has left room for expansion into 6/7nm and packaging.

Global Economic Outlook 2025–2026: The Triple Variables of Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and AI Demand

Three factors will determine the semiconductor cycle in the global economic outlook.

• Interest Rates: After the peak of global tightening, there is a high possibility of entering a gradual easing cycle, although the pace will depend on price stickiness and improvements in productivity (especially driven by AI investment).

• Exchange Rates: The Japanese yen will be influenced by the speed of policy normalization, while the Korean won will be highly volatile depending on the external balance/IT export recovery and risk appetite.

• AI Demand: Bottlenecks in HBM, high-bandwidth packaging, and advanced substrate (ABF) are likely to remain tight through 2025–2026.

Under the baseline scenario, while the memory cycle might improve from the second half of 2025 to 2026, if China’s price undercutting becomes fully-fledged, volatility may first heighten in the NAND segment.

In terms of exchange rates, if a strong dollar reappears, Korean exports benefit from price competitiveness; however, increased import costs for raw materials and equipment as well as higher foreign currency debt expenses could offset these benefits.

Realistic Risk Scenarios for Korea

Consider a “policy package” that Japan might deploy against Korea.

• Rallying domestic support with symbolic issues (territorial/historical) → leads to trade and export controls.

• Enhanced licensing scrutiny on photoresists, EUV pellicles, and specialty gases → increased risks of variations in the operating rate and yield of Korea’s advanced production lines.

• Expansion of HBM and advanced packaging capacities (produced in Japan) → potential shift of global customers toward Japan due to multi-sourcing.

If China’s price undercutting coincides with this, Korea could face a combined assault of “material bottlenecks (from Japan) + price pressure (from China).”

Response Strategies: A Checklist for Governments, Companies, and Investors

Government/Industry Policy

• Redesign the “selection and concentration” strategy for domestic material and part production: Invest budgets and manpower fully into super bottlenecks such as EUV resist, pellicles, ultra-high purity HF, and photo mask blanks.

• Buffer licensing risks with joint procurement and mutual certification systems between Korea and the US/the EU.

• Establish clusters for advanced packaging (2.5D/3D, CoW/WoW) and support last-mile equipment/software (EDA and package design).

Corporate Execution

• Institutionalize dual or triple sourcing of materials/equipment and maintain constant safety stocks.

• Maintain leadership in HBM: Secure capabilities for TSV yield, thermal management, optical interconnect readiness, and domestic alternatives for CoWoS.

• Manage CAPEX flexibility and expand long-term customer contracts (LTA) for scenarios of Chinese-origin or Chinese-directed price shocks.

From an Investment Perspective (for Information Purposes)

• Focus on domestic material production: Evaluate the distributed value chain including Dongjin Semichem (resist), SolBrain/Hoosung (hydrofluoric acid, gases), Hansol Chemical (TMAH, hydrogen peroxide), S&S Tech (photo masks), and Simtech/Daeduck (substrates).

• Advanced packaging/equipment: Check the technological positioning of companies such as Nephus and Hanmicron (packaging) as well as Hanmi Semiconductor, SFA, and Joo Sung Engineering (bonding, etching, deposition, and backend processes).

• Keep an eye on the different strategies in the three-pronged HBM memory approach: monitor quarterly trends in yield and cost among SK hynix (maintaining leadership), Samsung Electronics (accelerating transition), and Micron (stabilizing production in Japan).

Top 10 Supply Chain Bottlenecks: Japan’s Leverage and Korea’s Gaps

• EUV/ArF Photoresist.

• EUV Pellicles and Photo Mask Blanks.

• Fluorinated specialty chemicals and ultra-high purity HF.

• Specialty gases (Ne/Ar/Kr, NF3, etc.) and gas purification.

• Precision cleaning/developing chemicals (such as TMAH).

• High-precision etching and deposition equipment (e.g., TEL).

• ABF substrates (Ajinomoto) and core layers.

• Ultra-precision polishing/device dicing (e.g., Disco).

• High-purity quartz and ceramic parts.

• Advanced packaging process software/testing.

Since 2019, Korea has made progress in domestic production; however, super bottlenecks such as EUV resist and pellicles remain vulnerable.

The Overlooked Key: How Dokdo, the Arctic Sea Route, and Submarine Cables Connect to Semiconductors

The securitization of maritime routes and data lines is underway.

• The commercialization of the Arctic sea route increases the strategic value of the East Sea and reinforces Japan’s incentive to expand its influence in the area.

• Submarine cables are the “digital oil pipelines” of the AI era.

• Control over cable laying/repair rights in the East Sea jurisdiction and adjacent waters can have a tangible impact on data latency and reliability.

In other words, territory, maritime routes, and data are now moving together as a “national competitiveness bundle” akin to the semiconductor supply chain.

Timeline (Observations) and Checkpoints

• 2025: Possibility of extended HBM shortages, visibility of HBM/packaging capacity expansion in Japan, and monitoring the accelerated shipment of Chinese accelerators.

• 2026: Whether the memory super-cycle persists will be determined by the offset between China’s price undercutting and the resilience of U.S. demand.

• 2027: Check for the target date of mass production of Rapidus 2nm and whether TSMC Japan will expand its second phase and packaging capacities.

• 2028–2029: The realism of the 1.x nm roadmap, as well as the standardization of optical interconnects/chiplets, could be decisive variables in the battle for supremacy.

Recommendations for Policy Makers and Corporations

• Government: Establish a joint response system for strategic materials licensing (Korea-US/Korea-EU) and elevate the top 5 super bottlenecks (resist, pellicles, HF, mask blanks, ABF alternatives) to national missions.

• Companies: Document alternative portfolios for each production line reliant on Japanese materials (including lead times, pricing, and yield impacts) and mandate quarterly BCP rehearsals.

• Industry: Build a “Packaging Megacampus” that brings together advanced packaging, software, and testing into one cluster.

Conclusion: 2026 Will Be Defined by “Bottleneck Management” and “Preparation for Price Wars”

While the broader global economic outlook—with easing interest rates and strong AI demand—appears favorable, Japan’s power diplomacy and China’s price war will disrupt bottlenecks and margins.

Korea’s solution lies not simply in capacity expansion but in resolving bottlenecks, localizing advanced packaging, and diversifying its sourcing and BCP strategies.

This battle is comprehensive—encompassing technology as well as diplomacy, maritime routes, and data.

One-Page Checklist for Investors

• Macroeconomics: Monitor the pace of interest rate cuts, the dollar index, and quarterly trends in the won, yen, and yuan exchange rates.

• Demand: Keep an eye on HBM order backlogs, CoWoS/packaging lead times, and AI server shipment guidance.

• Supply: Track Japanese material license issues, the pace of Chinese memory/logic capacity expansions, and Korean CAPEX guidance.

• Margins: Monitor DRAM/NAND ASPs, operating rates, and scrap/yield metrics.

• Policy: Follow Korea-US/Korea-EU semiconductor collaboration news and any changes in Japan’s export control items.

Addendum: Interpretation of Reports that Suggest a “De Facto Halt” in Photoresist Exports to China

Absolute bans and heightened licensing scrutiny have different market impacts.

The prevailing view of recent trends is that “enhanced license review → reduction in actual supply” is more accurate.

Investors should consider delays in approvals by item, customer redesigns, and the evaluation period for alternative materials as variables affecting stock prices.

< Summary >

Japan is strengthening its power diplomacy by controlling semiconductor bottlenecks through export controls and expanding domestic production.

China is narrowing the technology gap while increasing the likelihood of a price war around 2026.

Although easing interest rates and robust AI demand create favorable conditions in the global economic outlook, bottlenecks, exchange rates, and price wars determine profits.

Korea’s solution lies in domestic production of super bottlenecks such as EUV resists and pellicles, localizing advanced packaging, and institutionalizing multi-sourcing and BCP practices.

Investment points include HBM leadership, diversification in packaging/materials supply chains, and the gap between Japanese licensing risks and Chinese capacity expansions.

[Related Articles…]

• Japanese Export Controls and Korea’s Semiconductor Response Strategies
• Analysis of TSMC’s Japanese Fab and the Rapidus 2nm Roadmap

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 힘의 외교를 시작한 일본, 한국 반도체를 노릴 수 있습니다

---

● REAL ID Crackdown, Address Is Identity, Voice Is Vulnerable

Upcoming Full Implementation of the U.S. REAL ID: ‘National ID’ Standardization, Address=Identity, Norms That Favor the Microphone Over Lenses Pave the Way for Transformations in Travel, Fintech, and AI

This article provides an overview of the REAL ID timeline as of May 7, changes in airport security, the current status of discussions regarding TSA’s $45 fee, the administrative infrastructure in the U.S. where ‘address=identity,’ the impact of camera legality and audio sensitivity norms on AI trends, and insights on stock markets, digital transformation, and fintech regulations (US KYC/AML) all in one place.
It also includes the essence of the “risk-cost-data flow” that is rarely discussed elsewhere, as well as a checklist needed by companies, investors, and individuals.

[Breaking News Key Summary] Today’s U.S. Identity, Security, and AI Issues, That’s All You Need

• REAL ID is a “quasi-national identification” standard issued by state governments that complies with federal standards.
  The star (★) on the upper-right corner of the driver’s license is the mark, and it applies to domestic flights and access to federal facilities.
• The DHS’s official schedule stated that it would be implemented on May 7, 2025, but due to varying state preparedness and budgets, on-site confusion is possible, so it is essential to check before departure.
  Passports remain valid as an alternative form of identification.
• There have been reports that TSA may impose a fee (reportedly $45) for substitute identity verification procedures for domestic passengers without REAL ID or a passport, but confirmation is needed regarding its formalization and final announcement.
  Currently, the officially confirmed fee system under federal regulations is limited.
• The practical neural network of U.S. administration is the USPS (postal service) and physical addresses.
  Without an address, access to financial services, taxes, healthcare, voting, and welfare can be blocked, making one prone to being “outside the system.”
• While video recording in public spaces is broadly legal, audio recording of private conversations is strongly protected.
  In the AI era, ‘voice’ becomes more sensitive data than ‘face.’
• In the context of accelerated global digital transformation and an environment of high interest rates and inflation, investments in airport security, fintech, and cybersecurity are structurally increasing.
  Costs created by regulations reduce risk and can lead to specific sector re-rating in the stock market.

1) REAL ID: What is Changing

Definition: REAL ID is a federal standard for identification based on the law enacted in 2005, and if state-issued driver’s licenses or state IDs meet this standard, they are recognized for federal purposes.
Mark: The star on the upper-right side of the driver’s license (with each state having its own design) indicates compliance with REAL ID.
Usage: It is required for domestic flights and access to federal government buildings and military facilities.
Implementation: According to DHS notices, it was scheduled for full implementation on May 7, 2025.
On-Site Note: Some states may face delays in issuance, paperwork rejections, or lack of identity/address evidence, so it is important to make reservations in advance.
Alternative: Valid passports, passport cards, military IDs, etc., will continue to be accepted.

2) TSA $45 Fee Proposal: What are the Facts

Report Overview: There have been reports discussing the imposition of a fee (about $45) for substitute identity verification procedures for domestic passengers without REAL ID or a passport during security screening.
Current Status: Whether the system is institutionalized, the fee amount, and its scope require separate confirmation.
Checkpoint: Be sure to check TSA/DHS official notices and airport-specific guidelines before departure.
Practical Tip: To mitigate risks in case of loss or non-possession, keep both a mobile boarding pass and a wallet-sized ID, and consider carrying a valid passport as a backup to reduce cost and delay risks.

3) Airport and Travel Security: Reformation with Biometric Authentication and AI

Equipment Changes: Airports are expanding CAT-2 equipment (for ID verification and facial matching), which, when combined with programs like PreCheck and Global Entry, reduces waiting times.
AI Trends: Facial authentication is focusing on liveliness detection and the advancement of anti-spoofing models, while counterfeit ID detection is being driven by computer vision and AI for document authentication and tampering detection.
Fairness Issues: To minimize biases in matching rates due to factors such as race, age, or lighting conditions, incorporating a “human verification (explicit opt-out)” loop in the design is crucial.
Data Governance: While security video footage is relatively widely used, the collection and storage of audio data carry significant legal risks.
Normative Points: The idea that “the microphone weighs more than the lens” becomes the starting point for corporate design.

4) America’s ‘Address=Identity’: The Administrative and Financial Infrastructure Supported by USPS

Decentralized Structure: In the U.S., there is no centralized resident registration system; identity, voting, property, and taxes are managed at the state, county, and municipal levels.
Key Rail: The USPS covers all addresses nationwide with uniform postage, ensuring the final delivery of administrative and financial documents.
KYC/AML: Physical address verification (bank statements, utility bills, USPS address confirmation, etc.) plays an anchoring role in customer verification for banks and fintech companies.
Digital Divide: Without an address, access to benefits, account opening, healthcare, and employment can be blocked, leaving one “outside the system.”
Practical Solutions: The first step in supporting the homeless is the creation of a “temporary address,” and registering a shelter address helps in accessing welfare, healthcare, and reemployment opportunities.
Business Insights: Companies entering the U.S. market must design their systems with address validation (USPS CASS/NCOA) and fraud prevention (address history matching) essential in delivery, billing, and KYC processes.

5) Camera Legality and Audio Sensitivity: The Privacy Rift in the AI Era

Public Space Recording: In accordance with freedom of expression, video recording in public spaces is broadly permitted.
Commercial Use: Issues arise not from the act of recording itself, but from its commercial utilization where conflicts with publicity rights and trademark rights occur.
Confidential Conversations: Under federal and state laws (one-party/two-party consent states), audio recording is strongly protected.
AI Implications: With an increase in voice cloning and AI call bot fraud, regulatory sensitivity towards audio is rising.
Practical Guidelines: For apps, IoT devices, and store CCTV systems, retain video data only as long as necessary, avoid collecting audio data by principle, and if unavoidable, apply explicit notices, consent, encryption, and short-term retention.

6) Economic and Market Impact: Costs Increase, Risks Decrease, and Opportunities Grow

Global Economic Context: Amid a persistent high interest rate environment near its peak and ongoing inflation, security budgets with a public or infrastructure nature are less sensitive to economic cycles.
Digital Transformation: The digitalization of IDs, airport automation, and KYC automation are becoming fixed investment items, offering dual benefits of reduced operating costs and enhanced security levels.
Winning Sectors: Sectors such as airport security equipment, AI for document authenticity and facial recognition, address verification and fraud detection, data governance and privacy solutions, and postal/logistics optimization are structurally benefiting.
Cost Pass-Through: The airline and travel sectors have an incentive to shift the costs of identity verification failures to fees and additional charges.
Stock Market Points: Regulation beneficiaries depend on the order backlog and the proportion of recurring revenue, with short-term deployment issues potentially causing fluctuations in earnings.

7) The Most Important Point Often Overlooked by Other Media

• REAL ID is not a ‘national ID’ but a ‘minimum federal standard.’
  The essence lies in the standardization of state-issued IDs to meet higher federal standards rather than a centrally issued ID by the nation itself.
• The true rail for identity verification is not the “ID card” but “address+postal service+data brokers.”
  After all, a mailable address is the key to access financial, tax, judicial, and healthcare services.
• In the AI era, the focus of risk is on the voice rather than the face.
  While voice fraud is subject to increasingly stringent regulations, the use of video remains relatively broad, prompting companies to allocate more compliance budgets to audio management.
• The core of the fee introduction discussion is the shift from “socialization of cost” to “user-borne cost.”
  Security costs will ultimately be redistributed as tariff structures and additional services.

8) Checklist for Practitioners and Companies

Individuals (Travelers/Residents):
– Make a reservation and prepare documents proving birth, citizenship, legal residency, and address at your state DMV for REAL ID.
– Carry a passport as a backup ID to reduce risks of delays or fees at the airport.
– Enrolling in TSA PreCheck/Global Entry can practically shorten security waiting times.

Companies (Airlines, Fintech, Retail):
– Incorporate address verification (USPS CASS, NCOA), document authenticity, liveliness detection, and legally compliant audio handling policies into your KYC flow.
– Operate policies on minimal data collection, purpose limitation, reduced retention periods, and a matrix of state-specific audio consent requirements.
– Clearly notify and guide consumers regarding video retention policies and non-collection principles for audio in airports and physical stores, along with their rights related to biometrics.

9) Timeline and Regulatory Fact-Check

Legal History: Discussions began after 9/11 in 2001, the REAL ID Act was enacted in 2005, and subsequent delays occurred due to state preparedness, costs, and privacy controversies.
Implementation Date: According to DHS notices, it was scheduled for implementation on May 7, 2025, but it is necessary to check the latest notice before departure.
TSA Fee: Although there have been reports, the final announcement regarding fee amount, scope, and confirmation can only be verified through official documentation.
Alternative IDs: Passports (booklet/card), military IDs, etc., are recognized for federal purposes.

10) A Glimpse at AI Trend Applications

Travel/Airlines: Enhancements in facial matching accuracy, light condition adjustments, strengthened liveliness verification, and a standard that simultaneously incorporates a human loop will become the norm.
Fintech: Commercialization of synthetic ID detection models, risk scoring based on address history, and a chain of document OCR+vision trust will become commonplace.
Privacy: Detecting voice cloning, audio watermarking, and automation of state-specific consent logging will be central to compliance.

< Summary >

REAL ID is a “quasi-national ID” that standardizes state-issued IDs to meet federal criteria, serving as a key for domestic flights and access to federal facilities.
The $45 TSA fee proposal has been reported, but its final regulatory status requires separate confirmation.
The U.S. identity infrastructure relies more on “address+USPS” than on ID cards, as a lack of an address hinders access to financial services and welfare.
While video recording in public spaces is widely legal, audio is strongly protected by law, making voice risk management key in the AI era.
Amid the global digital transformation, investments and regulations in airport security, fintech KYC, privacy, and cybersecurity are being strengthened simultaneously.

[Related Articles…]

• Accelerated Airport Biometric Authentication and Changes in Airline Revenue Models Due to REAL ID Implementation
• How USPS Address Infrastructure is Transforming Fintech KYC and Fraud Prevention Strategies

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 미국 9.11 테러 이후 20년만, 드디어 시행되는 ‘국가 신분증’ | 홍키자의 美쿡 | 홍성용 특파원

---