● Tesla Goes Driverless in 3 Weeks, Fed Backstop Ignites Wild Moonshot

Musk Announces 3-Week Countdown for “Unsupervised” Driving, Fed Rate Cut, Trump’s Federal AI Regulation, and a One-Line Look at the 2026 World Cup

This article includes 1) the Fed’s rate cut and liquidity signals, 2) a three‐week countdown for Austin’s unsupervised robotaxi, 3) the possibility of unified federal AI regulations, 4) SpaceX IPO signals and Starlink strategy, and 5) a data-service run-up aimed at the 2026 World Cup in North and Central America.
“It clearly displays in one timeline the reason why Tesla is hurrying now.”
It separately summarizes practical points such as “liquidity backstop” and “operating hub infrastructure,” which are rarely covered in other YouTube videos or news reports.

The Fed: Rate Cut Executed, but Now “It’s Time for the Market to Prove It”

The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, reaffirming its easing stance.
The vote ended 9 to 3, highlighting the significant internal differences in perspective.
The dot plot suggests about one additional cut each in 2026 and 2027, with a long-term neutral rate around 3%.
While the headline appears dovish, the actual tone is mixed with a hawkish note of “caution and data review” in the rate cut.
Nevertheless, the stock market rose with relief that “a rate hike is far off,” and the plan to resume short-term treasury purchases, especially from a liquidity standpoint, caught attention.
This is interpreted as a signal that “while inflation is being monitored, the pace will slow, but drastic market swings will be prevented.”
In conclusion, the unilateral chase of growth stocks solely based on a rate cut is becoming difficult, and the premium is now determined by actual performance and data.

Expansion of the “Spatial Experience” with Supercharger: Boxabl Modular Lounge

Tesla has revealed a contract with Boxabl to install a modular rest lounge at an outlying supercharger hub.
The strategy is to turn the charging standby time into an “experience” by offering coffee, snacks, restrooms, game consoles, etc.
This reduces the inconvenience of stand-alone charging stations that are not attached to shopping malls or gas stations and serves to justify the geographical expansion of the charging infrastructure.
In the long term, it may be used as a base camp for operating infrastructure such as robotaxi hubs, remote support stations, and pickup/drop-off zones.
As charging evolves into a “spatial service,” Tesla’s ecosystem lock-in effect is strengthened.

SpaceX IPO Signal: Starlink and 2026

According to reports, SpaceX is internally reviewing a public listing in the latter half of 2026, with corporate valuation and public offering scale being discussed at record levels.
The company has already mentioned positive cash flow and regular share buybacks, indicating a focus on “maturing the business and solidifying its structure” rather than raising funds.
The key factor is Starlink, which makes up a significant portion of the revenue.
A turning point is expected around 2026 with the synergy between direct satellite-to-mobile connections, global spectrum acquisition, and Starship (large launch vehicle).
Musk’s mention of “ways for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX” remains an active card.
Although it is not confirmed that the IPO will actually take place, it presents a picture where investments in the convergence of big tech, space, and communications, with an “AI innovation” axis, become more solid.

Musk: “Unsupervised Autonomous Driving in 3 Weeks in Austin”

Musk stated that unsupervised autonomous driving is effectively solved, and within three weeks, it can operate in Austin without a safety attendant.
“Unsupervised” refers to the stage where vehicles operate on the road with actual passengers without safety personnel in the driver and co-pilot seats, suggesting a quality equivalent to commercial service.
Regulatory risks are significant.
As seen in the case of Cruise, even a single major accident could lead to permit suspension and business scaling back.
Therefore, initially, there is a high possibility of lowering the risk by managing conservative parameters such as geofencing, weather/nighttime restrictions, and remote support ratios.
Conversely, if the service is maintained for several months without a major accident, the market could shift its calculation from “story” to “cash flow.”
At that time, Tesla has a high chance of being revalued not just as an EV manufacturer but as an AI company with a robotaxi platform.

Possibility of Unified Federal AI Regulation: Unlocking “Expansion”

There are reports that President Trump has hinted at an executive order to unify the varying state regulations on AI and autonomous driving into a single federal rule.
If implemented, it would shorten the fragmented state approval process and open a regulatory pathway for robotaxis to expand across multiple cities at once.
However, the actual effects will depend greatly on the details of the provisions, the distribution of powers with state governments, and the assignment of liability in the event of accidents.
Clear regulations would lower capital costs and be positive for the infusion of liquidity needed for operating scale-ups.

2026 North and Central America World Cup: 6 Months of Real-World Data → A Global Showcase

If unsupervised robotaxis begin service by the end of this year, about 6 months of real-world data can be accumulated before the World Cup opening in June 2026.
Many of the 16 cities in the US, Canada, and Mexico already have Tesla vehicles and superchargers in place, making it possible to run pilot services tied to the event.
In routes with repeated demand, such as airport-to-downtown and stadium-to-shuttle hubs, the economic viability of robotaxis can be demonstrated at first.
If successful, it will serve as a decisive scene that shows a “functioning system” to global users, regulators, and investors.

5 Key Points Overlooked by Other YouTube Videos or News Outlets

1) The “liquidity backstop” is more important than the rate cut.
The Fed’s signal to resume short-term treasury purchases directly benefits areas with large capital, data, and operating requirements, much like in autonomous driving projects.
Beyond the discount rate effect, it provides a safety net to absorb shocks, which is significant for growth projects.

2) The Boxabl lounge serves as “operating hub” infrastructure.
While its purpose is for rest, in practice it becomes a focal point for remote support (tele-assist), boarding/disembarking zones, safety monitoring, charging, and maintenance.
It is an essential element to support on-site operations for unsupervised driving.

3) Insurance and liability structures are the limiting factors.
The transition to unsupervised operations is not only a technological issue but also requires adjustments in insurance underwriting, liability allocation in accidents, and structures covering own damage and bodily injury.
Changes in Tesla Insurance coverage and rates will serve as a leading indicator of progress.

4) The math of per-mile inference cost and profitability.
The ‘cost per mile’ combining the real-time inference cost of FSD, the hardware stack per vehicle, and the energy and data transfer costs needs to be lowered for the platform margins to open up.
Once this metric decreases, the unit cost competitiveness of robotaxis will be comparable to that of taxis and light-duty vehicles.

5) The 2026 timeline is also connected to satellites and communications.
Improvements in Starlink’s coverage and latency directly impact remote support rates and service availability.
If federal regulation is unified, there will be an added boost in cross-border standardization for communications, mapping, and payments.

90- and 180-Day Checklist: What to Watch For

• Announcements, safety reports, and operation permit details regarding autonomous driving operations by the city of Austin and Texas.
• Disclosure of parameters for the initial unsupervised service such as geofencing, time frames, weather restrictions, and remote support ratios.
• Timing for the transition to paid ride services, fare policies, app updates for ride requests, and protocols for passenger onboarding.
• Permits and actual opening speed for the installation of the Boxabl lounge (supercharger lounge).
• FCC spectrum, Starship test schedules by SpaceX, and updates on Starlink devices.
• The actual wording of the federal executive order, results of coordination with state governments, and the obligation system for accident reporting.

Summary of Market Impact by Scenario

• Bull: 3-6 months with no accidents, low remote support ratios, and expansion of paid services → multiple expansions for Tesla (platform value) → revaluation of the AI innovation/robotaxi theme.
• Base: Gradual expansion in limited zones, partial monetization, and data accumulation → acceleration of performance connection ahead of the 2026 event.
• Bear: Accidents, regulatory backlash, and issues with social acceptance → expansion halted, waiting for reapproval → delayed valuation adjustments.

One-Line Investment Perspective

Now is the threshold between “a field of expectation” and “a field of results.”
The rate cut and liquidity shield are in place, and the possibility of unified regulation is standing by as an expansion leverage.
Once initial safety indicators and the profitability math for unsupervised autonomous driving are verified, Tesla can be re-evaluated as a platform rather than just an EV manufacturer.

< Summary >The Fed executed a rate cut but emphasized a data-dependent approach, entering a phase of cautious speed, accompanied by liquidity management signals.
Tesla is expanding its operating hub infrastructure with Boxabl and supercharger lounges while Musk announces unsupervised autonomous driving in Austin within 3 weeks.
If federal AI regulation is unified, the pace of expansion will quicken, and the 2026 World Cup will serve as a global showcase to demonstrate 6 months of real-world data.
The key factors are initial safety indicators, insurance structures, and per-mile costs; if these are overcome, the premium of the robotaxi platform could translate into performance.

[Related Articles…]

• Rate Cut: Direction and Market Signals for 2025-2026
• The Economics of Robotaxis Opened by Unified Autonomous Driving Regulations

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 머스크 ‘무감독’ 선언, 3주 뒤 사람이 없는 테슬라가 달린다… 월드컵 전 던진 가장 위험한 승부수?

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● SpaceX IPO Shock, Tesla AI Chip Blitz, Robocar Goldrush

Summary of Tesla and SpaceX’s Big Moves: SpaceX IPO Indications, Tesla Long-Term Shareholder Rights, Space Data Centers, Inference Chips (AI5/AI6), and 2026 Robo-Taxi Economics

Today’s article covers everything from the indication of a SpaceX IPO and various valuation scenarios, Tesla’s long-term shareholder rights structure, the landscape of space data centers and the era of inference chips, the 2026 robo-taxi revenue model and cost per mile, to stock outlooks amid interest rate and inflation trends.
It consolidates key metrics and actual checkpoints that other media might have missed, all in one place.

Breaking News Check: Which Aspects of the SpaceX IPO Are Confirmed and Which Are Estimated

Elon Musk has sent a strong signal regarding a SpaceX IPO on X, which is today’s headline.
While the market is discussing a valuation of up to $1.5 trillion, there has been no formal S-1 filing or exchange announcement so far.
Thus, “the IPO pursuit signal has grown stronger” is the fact to date, and the final structure, timing, and valuation will be determined during the official disclosure phase.
The most likely use of IPO funds is for ‘space data centers and AI infrastructure.’
In the global economic environment, the interest rate level directly influences IPO valuations, so the interest rate trajectory and the pace of inflation moderation during 2025–2026 are key variables.

Tesla Long-Term Shareholder Rights: “Loyalty is Rewarded with Loyalty” Through a Practical Mechanism

Musk has repeatedly stated on X that “long-term shareholders will be given preferential treatment.”
There have been precedents such as exploring preference for long-term Tesla shareholders during a Starlink IPO and the early delivery requirement for the Cybertruck Foundation Series, thereby practically applying the “loyalty reward” philosophy.
However, the specific conditions for the potential SpaceX (or Starlink) IPO have not yet been determined, and there is no guarantee that past conditions will be replicated.
Possible scenarios include a priority allocation model based on holding period, number of shares held, country of residence, and compliance with regulatory requirements.
Investors should understand until the official disclosure that “the principles remain, but the details are open.”

Tesla×SpaceX Synergy: The Era of Inference Chips and the Link to Space Data Centers

Following Tesla’s FSD computer (HW4, also known as AI4), the roadmap for next-generation AI5 and AI6 is being discussed.
During the xAI hackathon conversation, Musk hinted that “AI5 will be greatly improved over AI4, overall by at least 10–11 times according to metrics.”
He also mentioned that “the next-generation model will incorporate longer chain-of-thought and interconnected reasoning,” indicating an improvement in decision-making quality in complex environments (such as underground parking lots and parking towers).
If SpaceX builds a ‘space data center’ integrated with its LEO (low Earth orbit) satellite network, Tesla’s inference chips may be used for space-side inference or caching, as well as global service orchestration.
In that case, Tesla could be re-evaluated not merely as an automaker but as a core player in the AI trend encompassing inference chips, software, and edge-space hybrid computing.

Space Data Centers: Possibilities, Physical Constraints, and a Realistic Initial Model

Advantages: secure access to solar power, enhanced physical security compared to ground infrastructures, and disaster risk diversification for specific regions.
Constraints: latency limitations, challenges with radiation, thermal management, maintenance costs, launch expenses, and return handling (resulting in high CAPEX/OPEX).
Realistic initial model:

• Training will be mostly ground-based (with superior power and cooling efficiency), while space is utilized for special-purpose inference/cache or backup roles.
• Starlink will facilitate global service distribution, consistency management, and serve as an edge update hub.
• Some critical workloads requiring high availability in finance, defense, and disaster communications might be migrated to space.
  In conclusion, rather than an “all-space data center” from the outset, starting with a ground-space hybrid approach that gradually expands is more realistic.

Tesla “Terrafab (tentative name)” and the Economics of In-House Semiconductor Production

The demand for AI chips is exponentially growing due to their applications in vehicle autonomy, humanoid robots, and space/edge inference.
If Tesla fully relies on external foundries (e.g., TSMC), repeated supply risks, cost fluctuations, and schedule delays could occur.
If Tesla contemplates a large-scale in-house fab (with terascale production capacity), it would imply an even larger CAPEX cycle than that seen during the 4680 challenge.
Initially, the market might discount due to uncertainty, but success could lead to an upward shift in the value chain and improved margin structures.
On the other hand, the learning curve for wafers, packaging, and advanced processes is not steep, so a gradual in-house production combined with strategic partnerships is realistic.

Robo-Taxi “The Fundamental Industry Metric”: Cost Per Mile and the Intervention-Free Driving Ratio

The most important metric is the cost per mile.
Factors such as the hardware BOM, the versatility of the software stack, vehicle durability and maintenance, insurance and regulatory costs, and dispatch and charging efficiency all influence this cost.
The second metric is the “Intervention-Free Ratio,” which measures how much vehicles can operate completely autonomously without requiring remote monitoring or a safety driver’s intervention.
Rather than whether there are human passengers inside, the profitability is directly connected to the minimal necessity for remote interventions.
Waymo is currently emphasizing its strength in terms of “miles driven without a safety driver,” while Tesla claims to have an advantage with its “versatility, scale, and cost structure.”
From 2026 onward, as urban coverage expands and model sizes increase, leading to enhanced safety, the differences in cost per mile and intervention-free ratios may become increasingly pronounced on a quarterly basis.

Timeline and Stock Price Outlook Scenarios: Macro (Interest Rates and Inflation) and Catalysts

For 2025–2026, the pace of inflation moderation and the path of interest rate cuts in the global economy are key.
As interest rates fall, it will favor AI infrastructure CAPEX, data centers, power infrastructure, and the revival of the IPO market.
The catalysts related to Tesla and SpaceX are as follows:

• 2025: Clarity on the SpaceX/Starlink IPO structure, major software updates for Tesla FSD, and visibility on the AI5 tape-out.
• 2026: Expansion of regions approved by regulators, full-scale commercialization of robo-taxis, improvements in the intervention-free ratio, and a reduction in cost per mile.
• 2027: Mass production of AI5, potential early unveiling of AI6, and expansion into humanoid and space inference.
  Ultimately, stock price prospects are tied to actual performance and cash flow; if robo-taxi monetization along with inference chip sales and licensing take off, there is a potential for a valuation re-rating.

The Most Important Point Addressed in This Article

More critical than whether an IPO occurs is “where the funds are allocated and how effectively they improve the cost per mile and intervention-free ratio.”
The first solution for the space data center is “a ground-space hybrid,” where initially the economic benefits will come from special-purpose inference/cache.
Tesla’s inference chip roadmap (from AI4 to AI5 to AI6) is a strategy that interlinks vehicles, robots, and space into one ‘inference network.’
Long-term shareholder rights are based on “firm principles, with flexible implementation,” with the actual allocation to be confirmed during the regulatory and disclosure stages.
Since the global interest rate trajectory directly affects IPO valuations and CAPEX execution, macro indicators like interest rates and inflation serve as real catalysts.

Checklist: Items to Immediately Verify

• Whether SpaceX/Starlink has submitted the S-1 and the structure of the IPO (parent company vs. subsidiary split, inclusion of dual-class shares).
• Tesla FSD’s intervention-free ratio, dependence on remote monitoring, and the pace of urban coverage expansion.
• The performance, power efficiency figures, tape-out details, and mass production timeline for AI5, along with the packaging and thermal management roadmap.
• The intended use, total cost of ownership (TCO), and integration architecture of the space data center pilot with Starlink as the backhaul.
• Trends in interest rates and inflation, CAPEX for power infrastructure, and data center power PPA contract developments.

Risks and Responses

Delays in regulatory approval and accident issues are the primary risks that could alter timelines.
In-house semiconductor production poses significant risks due to high CAPEX burdens and the gradual learning curve.
Space data centers face technological risks such as latency, maintenance, and radiation challenges, as well as uncertainties in TCO.
Appropriate responses include phased pilot projects, diversification of partnerships, region-specific regulatory strategies, and proactive establishment of insurance and legal frameworks.

One-Line Investment Perspective

Ultimately, the game is “how quickly, how deeply, and in how many cities the cost per mile can be reduced,” and the company that integrates inference chips, software, networks, and capital deployment is closest to winning.

< Summary >
The SpaceX IPO has strong indications, but its final structure and valuation will be confirmed during the disclosure phase.
Tesla’s long-term shareholder rights remain a principle, though the precise conditions are yet to be determined.
Space data centers are realistically expected to begin as a ground-space hybrid, with inference chips (AI5/AI6) acting as the connecting axis for vehicles, robots, and space.
The essence of robo-taxis is in the cost per mile and the intervention-free ratio, and from 2026 onward these differences are likely to become more pronounced on a quarterly basis.
Global economic trends in interest rates and inflation directly influence IPO valuations and CAPEX execution, so monitoring macro indicators is essential.

[Related Articles…]
Tesla Robo-Taxi Revenue Model and the 2026 Commercialization Roadmap Based on Cost Per Mile
SpaceX/Starlink IPO Scenarios and the Initial Economics of Space Data Centers

*Source: [ 허니잼의 테슬라와 일론 ]

– [테슬라] 1조 5천억 달러 상장 공식 확인!! 스페이스X 상장으로 장기투자자가 빛을 보는 시기가 다가옵니다. 다가오는 테슬라 & 스페이스X 협업 및 추론칩의 시대

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● Powell Cut, Stealth Liquidity, AI Mirage Sparks Oracle Panic

Behind Powell’s 25bp Cut: ‘Short-term Bond Purchases’ Signal, AI and Oracle Shock, Reorganizing the Dollar/Equity Market Liquidity Map

Key Points Covered in This Article

Summary of why the market reacted in a ‘hawkish’ manner despite the 0.25 percentage point rate cut.

An explanation of how the Fed’s hint at ‘short-term T-bill purchases’ essentially reads as liquidity injection (similar to QE).

An analysis of the illusion created by AI raising the global economic average versus the actual economy (employment and financial sector performance) gap.

A dissection of Oracle’s 11% plunge, revealing that the core issue is cash flow (FCF) and capital for investments rather than EPS.

A checklist for positioning in the dollar, bond yields, and equity sectors.

Today’s Market in a Nutshell: Key Briefing for the Session

The Fed announced a 25bp cut in the policy rate.

The dot plot and guidance suggest limited further cuts, which can be interpreted as a ‘hawkish cut.’

Simultaneously, the mention of short-term government bond purchases has left the market divided as a signal of liquidity injection.

While expressing confidence in the easing of inflation, concerns about employment were noted, heightening measures to manage recession risks.

Oracle experienced an 11% plunge despite a slight miss in revenue and an EPS surprise.

The immediate trigger was the increased additional funding demand from expanded AI infrastructure investments and concerns over potential equity issuance and debt expansion.

While adjustments in big tech are limited overall, there is evidence of a market shift as sectors sensitive to AI-related adverse news react more sharply.

Interpreting the Fed’s Decision: Why a ‘Hawkish Cut’

On the surface, it is a rate cut, but the guidance suggests a lower pace and fewer cuts in the future, indicating a preference for balancing inflation and financial stability over solely defending the economy.

While the easing of inflation is acknowledged, the message conveyed is that the gradual downward path of core inflation will not be compromised.

Attention was paid to qualitative signals of weakening in employment rather than headline figures, which can be understood as a preemptive cushion to mitigate recession risks.

In summary, while rates are lowered, the shadow of tightening remains, potentially accompanied by a stronger dollar and increased volatility in bond yields.

The Real Meaning of Short-term Bond Purchases: Even If It’s Not QE, Liquidity Is Still in Motion

Even though it is not labeled as QE, buying short-term government bonds changes the flow of bank reserves and money market fund assets, which can loosen real liquidity.

If funds move from the ON RRP (reverse repurchase agreements) to the reserve system, dollar liquidity within the banking system increases and credit spreads may ease.

Purchasing short-term securities can trigger a rebalancing of positions by affecting the yield curve, leading to a combination of lower yields in the short end and increased volatility in the long end.

The shift from QT to short-term bond purchases is a fine-tuning measure aimed at moderating the pace of balance sheet reduction and avoiding a reserve floor, effectively working as a stealth easing measure.

In segments where banks face heavy SLR and G-SIB burdens, incoming reserves may ease stress in the credit and repo markets, potentially reducing equity market risk premiums.

Beneath the Surface of the Economy: The AI Illusion and Financial Sector’s ‘Early Warning’

While AI-fueled growth supports the average S&P earnings, non-AI sectors are experiencing intensified polarization with declining sales and margins.

The historically low profit growth in the financial sector has often preceded a real economic slowdown by 6 to 9 months in past cycles.

Even though headline employment figures appear positive, qualitative deteriorations such as reduced average working hours, temporary jobs, and hiring rates (JOLTS) are accumulating.

In summary, the global economy is marked by a widening gap between the AI-boosted average and the tangible economic experience, increasing sensitivity to policy and liquidity conditions.

Dissecting Oracle’s 11% Plunge: It’s About Cash Flow and Capital, Not EPS

Despite a slight miss in revenue and a significant EPS beat, the stock price plummeted.

The core issue is the additional funding required from expanding AI infrastructure investments (estimated by the market to be over $15 billion) and the uncertainty surrounding capital procurement.

If FCF fails to follow EPS, the basis for valuation shifts from earnings to cash flow, leading to a compression of multiples.

Concerns over potential equity issuance, debt financing, the margin structure of large long-term supply contracts, and the lead times for GPU, power, and data center construction have driven the risk premium higher.

Companies with weaker balance sheets compared to mega-caps can experience increased volatility in the later stages of the AI investment cycle.

Market Impact and Positioning Guide

Bonds: Yields in the short end are sensitive to the Fed’s signal of short-term bond purchases, while the long end may sustain volatility due to concerns over supply and slower growth.

Equity Market: In big tech, a selective market based on earnings and cash flow is emerging, and while liquidity injection may buffer non-AI sectors, fundamentals must be verified.

Dollar: The combination of a hawkish cut and a slowdown in Europe and China may sustain the dollar’s relative strength, although the magnitude of its strength may be limited by the easing of liquidity.

Commodities/Gold: Defensive demand is maintained if easing signals add to the debate on the real rate peak, and gradually increasing portfolio weighting is effective.

Sectors/Factors: Prioritize high quality and cash flow generation, approach REITs and dividend stocks in a segmented manner after confirming the interest rate path, and be cautious with the financial sector due to net interest margin pressure and credit loss expenses.

Intentions Behind the Numbers: Why the Movement Occurred This Way

The Fed has set up a liquidity safety net before the risk of a significant economic downturn, without declaring inflation completely under control.

The swift pivot from QT to short-term bond purchases reveals a dual objective of “maintaining the functioning of the financial system” and “avoiding a hard landing.”

Wall Street is likely to amplify short-term volatility by choosing narratives that favor their positions from these dual signals.

The Most Important Detail Overlooked by Other YouTube/News Outlets

Short-term bond purchases work by absorbing holdings from RRP, thereby increasing bank reserves and improving real liquidity indicators (such as total reserves and financial solvency indices).

This creates an asymmetry where “nominal rate cuts are minimal, but effective financial conditions are more accommodative,” which can help defend high-growth stock multiples.

However, if reserves increase rapidly, the stabilization of short-term repo rates and a narrowing of credit spreads may be seen, though long-term supply pressures and demand at Treasury auctions could lead to a re-expansion of the yield curve spread.

If coinciding with the year-end G-SIB/SLR regulatory calendar, portfolio rebalancing for bank balance sheet capacity may accompany a supply-driven market, further intensifying the trend.

Ultimately, the scenario of “liquidity easing while rates remain moderately high” creates a selective rally driven by quality and cash flow, which is the key scenario.

Checklist: Charts and Data to Monitor Immediately

Weekly changes in the Fed’s total reserves and RRP balance (to check liquidity direction).

Monitor the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields and the spread (IG/HY spread) simultaneously.

Quality indicators of employment: average working hours, temporary employment, and trends in JOLTS job openings.

FCF margins, disclosures of stock issuance/debt increases, and data center CapEx guidance for major tech/AI stocks.

NIM guidance and credit loss expenses in the banking sector, and exposure to commercial real estate.

Investment Ideas Sketch (For Informational Purposes, Not a Buy/Sell Recommendation)

Bonds: Consider a segmented approach in the 2-3 year range to bet on the policy path, and use the 10-year bond for short-term trading to exploit volatility.

Equity Market: For core AI stocks, verify cash flow conversion speed and select companies in the supply chain (power, cooling, components) that convert orders into cash.

Conservative Defense: Increase the proportion of sectors with stable dividend payouts and cash flow, and exploit volatility around event risks (option expiries and large Treasury auctions).

Exchange Rates: Consider selective long positions in emerging market currencies when the dollar’s strength moderates, but prioritize managing exposure during periods of heightened global economic uncertainty.

Points of Interest for Korean Investors

The signal of U.S. liquidity easing is favorable for narrowing the valuation discount on the KOSPI, but selective beneficiaries such as semiconductors, secondary batteries, and power infrastructure can be expected.

Domestic financial stocks should be approached conservatively due to pressures on NIM and potential upward risks in credit losses.

The Korean won is sensitive to the dollar’s direction, so caution is required regarding potential volatility in the tug-of-war between the Fed’s hawkish stance and liquidity easing.

Risk Factors

If inflation re-accelerates (through rents and wages), the Fed’s easing signals could retreat sharply.

If Treasury supply pressures increase, a sharp rise in long-term rates and valuation pressures could reemerge.

If the AI infrastructure investment cycle drags on and erodes FCF, the equity market’s ‘cash flow premium’ might widen further.

One-line Conclusion

Rates have been slightly cut, liquidity is gradually easing, but the real economy remains uneven.

In this combination, ‘quality and cash flow’ are the decisive factors, and the liquidity path from short-term bond purchases will influence the style of the dollar, bond yields, and equity markets.

< Summary >

The Fed implemented a 25bp cut while hinting at short-term bond purchases, mixing a hawkish stance with underlying signals of eased liquidity.

Although AI lifts the average, non-AI sectors and the financial industry are slowing, with qualitative deterioration in employment accumulating.

Oracle’s sharp drop is fundamentally about FCF and capital procurement concerns rather than EPS.

The key scenario features strong short-end bonds, a resilient dollar, and an equity market likely to favor selective, cash flow–driven stocks.

The key checkpoints are reserves/RRP, the 2- and 10-year yields, credit spreads, and the cash conversion speed of AI CapEx.

SEO Keywords for Reference

Global economy, inflation, interest rates, dollar, equity market

[Related Articles…]

The True Impact of the Fed’s Short-term Bond Purchases on Liquidity

The AI Investment Cycle and Oracle’s Strategic Shift

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– 파월 뭔가 이상하지 않나?(ft.금리인하, 단기채매입, 오라클 급락)

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