Samsung HBM Price Shock, 50 Percent Surge Sparks 200K Won Stock Frenzy

● Samsung HBM Price Shock, 50 Percent Surge Fuels 200K Stock Mania

Samsung Electronics’ Shocking 50% HBM Price Hike, and a Complete Analysis of the ‘200,000 Won Samsung’ Theory

The current semiconductor market situation, especially regarding AI semiconductors, is truly extraordinary.Today’s story digs deep into details that were merely skimmed over in other news reports.
To point out the key takeaway first for busy you, this covers the fact that HBM prices have shifted to absolute supplier dominance rather than a simple rise, why Samsung’s ‘turnkey’ strategy in the HBM4 technology competition is formidable, and the real reason why Nomura Securities called for a shocking figure of 133 trillion won for Samsung Electronics’ operating profit.
Just reading this one article will give you a clear picture in your head of how the upcoming semiconductor super-cycle will unfold.Let’s get started right away.

1. “Naming the Price” Background of the Surprise 50% HBM Price Hike

The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is literally in a situation where ‘products are selling out so fast they can’t keep up’.Recently, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix signed renewal contracts for HBM3 12-layer product supply with major customers, and they reportedly raised the price by a whopping 50%.
Previously, there was talk that it would rise by about 10-20%, but when the lid was opened, it jumped more than double that.To show how significant this is, the existing 12-layer product price was around 300 dollars, but now it has soared to the 500 dollar line, matching the next-generation product, HBM4.
Why on earth did it rise this much?The biggest reason is the ‘AI computing performance war’ among global big tech companies.As prominent AI companies like OpenAI’s GPT, Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic try to release smarter and faster models, they frantically need high-performance memory to handle this.
Plus, there is another interesting point.In conjunction with the recent moves by the Trump administration to ease regulations on Chinese AI chips, the price of HBM3E 8-layer used in Nvidia’s H200 is also skyrocketing.Since demand is exploding but only Samsung and SK Hynix can supply it, the Seller’s Market is bound to continue for the time being.

2. Next February, the Prelude to the HBM4 War and Samsung’s Hidden Card

Although price is important, the real battleground is the next-generation technology, HBM4.The timing has been moved up earlier than originally expected, so both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are racing with the goal of mass production next February.
The point to note here is the change in the competitive landscape.While Hynix has led the HBM market so far, analysis suggests that the table could completely turn starting with HBM4.Micron will only be able to mass produce by the second quarter of next year, so the two-way race between Korean companies will solidify, but Samsung has one very powerful weapon.
It is the point that ‘they can do both memory and foundry simultaneously’.Samsung is the only company that can independently create HBM4 by combining its 4nm foundry process and 10nm-class DRAM.This is called a ‘Turnkey Solution’, and from the perspective of customers like Nvidia or Google, it is inevitably attractive because they can finish everything at one place, Samsung, without having to entrust tasks here and there.
In particular, Nvidia reportedly requested HBM4 16-layer products by the fourth quarter of next year.16-layer is an unknown territory that has never been commercialized yet, requiring ultra-high-difficulty technology to shave wafers thinner than a sheet of paper.Samsung is evaluated to be in an advantageous position to solve this technical difficulty because it already has foundry know-how.Ultimately, when the generational shift comes in 2026-2027, the possibility of Samsung’s market share increasing explosively is very high.

3. The Basis for Nomura’s Shocking Forecast of “133 Trillion Won in Operating Profit Next Year”

Finally, let’s look at the money flow.Recently, Nomura Securities presented Samsung Electronics’ operating profit for next year at a whopping 133.4 trillion won.This is a figure 50 trillion won higher than the 85 trillion won expected by domestic securities firms.
What did Nomura see to issue such a rosy outlook?The core point is the ‘simultaneous rise in general-purpose memory prices’.It’s not just HBM selling well; general DRAM and NAND prices are also rising significantly starting from the fourth quarter.Nomura expects DRAM prices to rise by 68% and NAND by 73% next year, and predicted that general-purpose DRAM, in particular, could skyrocket by more than 80%.
This is a signal of a typical semiconductor super-cycle.Since production lines are concentrated on HBM due to AI servers, the structure causes general DRAM supply to decrease and prices to jump.Since this cycle is said to last until at least 2027, the possibility of Samsung Electronics’ performance making a literal ‘quantum jump’ is high.
In terms of stock price, Samsung Electronics’ current PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio) is at the 1.8x level, an undervalued state that is not even half that of SK Hynix or Micron.Earnings are exploding but the stock price is cheap? This is a very attractive signal from an investor’s perspective.This is exactly why the securities industry mentions a target price of 170,000 won and even ‘200,000 Won Samsung’.Although many investors are already seeing profits, considering the valuation appeal, the upside potential still seems sufficient.

< Summary >

HBM Price Explosion: Due to supply shortages and AI competition among big tech companies, HBM prices have increased by 50%, and the supplier-dominant market is expected to continue for the time being.
HBM4 Technology Hegemony: In the HBM4 market scheduled for mass production next February, Samsung Electronics is highly likely to take the lead with its turnkey solution combining foundry and memory and its 16-layer stacking technology.
Record-Breaking Earnings Outlook: Nomura Securities forecast Samsung Electronics’ operating profit for next year at 133 trillion won based on the memory super-cycle, and expectations for ‘200,000 Won Samsung’ are rising as the current stock price is undervalued compared to competitors.

*Source: 서울경제TV