● SP500 7600 bet, China H200 frenzy, dollar slide won strain, Buffett exit shakes Big Tech
Late-2026 S&P 500 Target Range (7,300–7,600), “China-Led 2M H200 Order” Narrative, USD Weakness vs. Elevated KRW/USD Average, and the Core Drivers of Year-End Markets
This note covers four topics:1) Why the late-2026 S&P 500 consensus range of 7,300–7,600 is considered achievable (and where it could break)
2) The “2 million H200 units ordered by Chinese big tech” narrative and the three-variable shock: AI supply chain / regulation / pricing
3) Why KRW/USD stayed high despite a weaker USD (including monetary policy decoupling)
4) How the Warren Buffett retirement narrative, interacting with Alphabet, could reshape large-cap tech leadership into 2026
1) One-line market summary (news format)
U.S. equities traded broadly flat into year-end, with idiosyncratic catalysts (NVIDIA, Nike, labor data) driving short-term volatility rather than a clear risk-on or risk-off regime.
2) NVIDIA: Market impact of reports that “Chinese firms ordered 2 million H200s”
2-1. Reported facts (core points)
- Major Chinese technology companies (e.g., Alibaba, ByteDance) reportedly placed orders for more than 2 million H200 units for 2026 delivery.
- NVIDIA reportedly asked TSMC to expand output.
- NVIDIA has not officially confirmed the report; markets reacted immediately.
2-2. Why this matters: three key channels
1) AI semiconductor demand is increasingly framed as bloc-to-bloc competition, not only model-level competition
- If AI investment is driven by strategic competition, capital deployment may remain resilient even when near-term ROI appears uncertain, extending the infrastructure cycle through 2026.
2) Export controls, export taxes, and administrative actions become pricing and margin variables
- The key investor question shifts from “units sold” to how policy-related costs and constraints reshape pricing power and margins.
3) A TSMC capacity request reinforces foundry concentration risk in the AI supply chain
- Advanced-node capacity is difficult to substitute; renewed bottlenecks can refocus investor attention on TSMC capex and ramp timing.
3) Labor data: Implications of a sharp drop in initial jobless claims
3-1. Headline data (core points)
- Jobless claims typically rise seasonally into year-end; this week they declined, suggesting fewer layoffs.
3-2. Key interpretation
- The pattern is consistent with a “no-fire, no-hire” labor market: layoffs are limited, but hiring remains subdued.
- Continuing claims remain elevated versus pre-pandemic levels, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy calibration (cuts vs. hold) given mixed signals on labor tightness.
4) Warren Buffett “final day” narrative: market-relevant takeaway
4-1. Key news points
- Conclusion of a 60-year CEO tenure.
- Berkshire Hathaway delivered long-term annualized returns near ~20%, outperforming the S&P 500 over time.
4-2. Investor takeaway: “Time is an asset”
- In a 2025–2026 market shaped by rapid AI-driven repricing, sustained compounding and time horizon discipline may be increasingly differentiating as fundamentals, AI capex, and policy risks interact.
5) Late-2026 S&P 500 target range (7,300–7,600): focus on assumptions, not the number
5-1. Consensus ranges (as cited)
- Street consensus: 7,300–7,600 (approximately 5–10% upside versus the reference level)
- Bull case: 8,000–8,100
- Conservative/neutral: 7,000–7,200
5-2. Three core assumptions embedded in the target
1) AI infrastructure investment does not roll over through 2026
- Strategic competition could keep capex elevated, with adjustments in pace rather than a full stop.
2) Index leadership remains concentrated in mega-cap constituents
- With a high weight in a limited set of large firms, index outcomes depend disproportionately on those names’ earnings, multiples, and policy exposure.
3) Rate cuts (or the conviction that peak tightening is over) support valuation multiples
- Beyond the timing and magnitude of cuts, the perceived end of extreme tightening can stabilize or expand equity multiples.
6) USD weakness vs. elevated KRW/USD: why the exchange rate stayed high
6-1. Core observation
- The U.S. dollar declined materially on the year, while the KRW/USD average finished near peak levels.
6-2. Interpretation framework
1) The USD is a relative price
- KRW/USD can rise even when the broad dollar index falls if KRW weakens more than peers.
2) Monetary policy decoupling (U.S. vs. Japan/others)
- Diverging rate paths can disrupt expected FX relationships and re-route capital flows.
3) Domestic demand for USD driven by overseas equity purchases
- Sustained outbound retail flows can keep structural USD demand elevated, limiting KRW appreciation even in a weaker-USD environment.
7) Korean retail flow data: Alphabet leads net buying; Tesla leads holdings
7-1. Key observations
- Alphabet ranking first in net buying is consistent with sentiment linkage to prominent value-investor narratives.
- Tesla remaining the largest holding suggests persistent retail positioning even amid elevated volatility.
7-2. Investor checklist
- With U.S. equity allocations influencing FX dynamics and policy discussions, global capital flows may increasingly dominate headlines through 2026.
8) (Supplemental) Times Square ball drop: monetization insight
- The symbolic centerpiece carries no advertising, while monetization is concentrated in adjacent surfaces, hospitality, and broadcast rights.
- This mirrors platform economics in large-cap tech/AI: core products may be low-margin or brand-building, while monetization scales through the ecosystem (cloud, APIs, advertising, payments, marketplaces).
9) Underemphasized but critical points
1) The “China H200 order” narrative is less about a single supplier’s upside and more about AI capex being reinforced by policy and strategic competition, potentially extending the cycle into 2026.
2) A weaker USD does not guarantee KRW/USD stabilization; Korea-specific USD demand and relative currency attractiveness remain decisive.
3) For the S&P 500, the key variable is whether mega-cap concentration persists; index performance is driven more by high-weight constituents’ earnings, valuations, and policy risk than by the median firm.
4) The dominant drivers converge around five factors: AI, AI semiconductors, U.S. equities, FX outlook, and the rate-cut trajectory.
< Summary >
- The late-2026 S&P 500 range of 7,300–7,600 assumes sustained AI infrastructure spending, continued mega-cap concentration, and valuation support from an easing cycle or the perception that peak tightening has passed.
- Reports of Chinese demand for 2 million H200 units highlight the possibility that U.S.-China strategic competition extends the AI investment cycle, while regulation and supply-chain constraints shape pricing and margins.
- KRW/USD can remain elevated even during USD weakness if KRW underperforms; monetary policy decoupling and structural USD demand from overseas equity buying are key drivers.
- The Buffett retirement narrative reinforces the role of time horizon and compounding discipline in a higher-volatility, policy-sensitive market environment.
[Related Links…]
- S&P 500 outlook and 2026 U.S. equity scenarios: https://NextGenInsight.net?s=S%26P500
- KRW/USD outlook: why the exchange rate may not fall despite a weaker USD: https://NextGenInsight.net?s=FX
*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]
– 2026년 말 S&P500 예측 7,300~7,600ㅣ중국 기업들 엔비디아 H200칩 200만개 주문ㅣ달러 올해 역대급 하락, 원달러 환율 연평균 최고ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕
