● Fed, Smart Money Plot 2026 Crash, Zero Reserves Panic, AI IPO Dump
The story I’m covering today isn’t just at the level of reading the news.I will sharply uncover what ‘major crash scenario’ Chairman Powell and huge capital (smart money) are preparing starting from 2026 while the market is cheering right now, the secret of bank reserves that we must never be fooled by, and the hidden intentions behind the IPO rush of AI companies.If you read this article to the end, you will open your eyes to quietly protecting your assets and seizing opportunities while others get excited shouting, “It’s the AI era!”
The 2026 Stock Market Crash Scenario, the Fed’s Secret Moves, and the Truth of the AI Bubble
1. A Financial System Smiling on the Outside but Hollow on the Inside: The Fear of 0% Reserves
The US economy looks better than ever if you just look at the news, right?Since 3rd quarter GDP growth hit 4.4%, employment is solid, and AI investment continues.However, to properly forecast the US stock market outlook, you must look at the ‘invisible flow of money’.
The most shocking thing right now is that the reserve ratio of US banks is effectively 0%.Under the ‘fractional reserve banking system’, which is called the flower of capitalism, banks are originally supposed to pile up a certain amount of money to prepare for emergencies (like bank runs).However, the Fed loosened this regulation starting in 2020. In other words, they essentially encouraged them, saying, “Don’t pile up money, lend it out and buy stocks or bonds.”
Consequently, while it looks fine on the outside, internally, banks are suffering from a cash shortage.Have you heard the news that credit card delinquency rates and mortgage delinquency rates are rising recently?That is exactly the signal. You must remember that the reason the Fed is quietly injecting funds (supplying liquidity) into the banking system from behind right now is to stop this ‘detonator right before it explodes’.
2. Why Specifically 2026? The IPO Rush of Giant Companies and Exit Strategies
Countless giant tech companies, including SpaceX, are aiming for a listing in 2026 as if they promised it.Is this really a coincidence? Or is it because they want to share profits with retail investors like us? Absolutely not.
Founders and early investors of companies are people who thoroughly pursue profit.It is highly likely a strategy to list when the Fed supplies liquidity and the AI trend is at its peak, pump up the stock price, sell expensively, and leave (Exit).Remember what happened to the countless related stocks that listed when the EV theme blew up in 2020-2021.
Especially, 2026 is a time when the 6-month lock-up (ban on selling) release after large IPOs, the US midterm elections, and geopolitical risks all coincide.Smart money might be viewing this time as ‘the time the party ends’.While the rally might continue through the first half of the year due to the power of liquidity, you must keep in mind that ‘passing the bomb’ awaits at the end.
3. Inflation is Not Over: The Detonator That Trump Also Knows
What is the decisive reason Biden failed re-election? It’s because he couldn’t control prices.He made economic indicators look good by printing money, but he failed at the inflation response that ordinary people actually feel.Trump also knows this fact better than anyone. He knows that no matter how much stocks rise, maintaining the regime is difficult if prices aren’t controlled.
But now, ominous signs are appearing again.Upward pressure on prices is erupting again throughout the real economy, such as electricity rate hikes and toll hikes.This is the reason why the Fed is fingering the interest rate cut card but cannot easily play it, and why they are playing ‘word games’ by supplying money in the back while making hawkish statements in the front.
4. The Key Takeaway Indicators Others Don’t Mention: Decoupling of Gold, Silver, and the Dollar
There is a point I consider really important here. It is the rise in gold and silver prices.Usually, gold is a safe asset that rises when the stock market is bad, but right now it’s rising together with the stock market, right?This isn’t simple investment, but has a strong character of hedging against currency devaluation.
The most dangerous scenario is the moment the stock market and gold become ‘decoupled’.In other words, if a situation comes where the stock market falls but gold and silver soar like crazy, that is the starting point of the ‘real crisis’ where funds move en masse from risk assets (stocks) to safe assets.You must check every day if the Dollar Index breaks through the bottom of the box range and if gold prices soar. This isn’t just raw material investment; it is a leading indicator of market collapse.
5. Response Strategies by Major Stock (Summary of Technical Analysis)
I will summarize the core lines of the stocks to watch in the current market. Write this down.
- Tesla: It confirmed support at $430, but bad patterns remain on the chart. To go into a certain uptrend, it must break through and settle above $470.
- Broadcom: The flow weakened as the $330 support broke. Upon further decline, it is open down to $289, so do not hastily pick it up and just observe.
- AST SpaceMobile & Micron: They have already achieved the target prices presented. Now is the realm of holders rather than chase buying.
- Gold & Silver: For GLD, $480-$500, and for silver-related stocks (SLV), whether they break the $34 resistance is the core point. Additional shooting is possible if it aligns with a weak dollar.
< Summary >
- The Flip Side of the Financial System: US bank reserves are effectively 0%. The Fed is injecting liquidity from behind to prevent bank runs, and this is growing the stock market bubble.
- The Trap of 2026: The IPOs of AI and giant companies could be a ‘design’ aiming for 2026 lock-up expirations and exits. Enjoy the first-half bull market, but be careful not to become the target of the bomb passing.
- Inflation Reignited: Prices have not been tamed, and this is a potential bad factor that can offset future interest rate cut effects and shock the market.
- Warning from Safe Assets: The rise of gold/silver is proof of currency devaluation. If a stock market decline + gold rise (decoupling) occurs, immediate risk management is needed.
- Investment Mindset: No ‘blind’ investing. Maintain an appropriate cash ratio, and it is a time requiring ‘confirmation trading’ where you enter after checking certain technical signals like Tesla breaking $470.
[Related Posts…]
- 2026 Stock Market Crash Scenario and Response Methods
- AI Trends and the Listing Secrets of Giant Tech Companies
*Source: 미국주식은 훌륭하다-미국주식대장
