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Major Points Summary

1. Warren Buffett and the Possibility of a US Stock Market Crash in 2025

• Warren Buffett's Cash Holdings: Berkshire Hathaway recorded its highest cash holding ratio in 34 years (approximately ₩470 trillion / $325 billion).
• Meaning of Apple Stock Disposal: Buffett liquidated some major assets, including Apple stock, but Apple's share price continued to rise. This could be interpreted as a failure in decision-making.
• "Buffett Indicator" and Bubble Concerns: The ratio of US market capitalization to GDP is at 209%, which is not easily categorized as a bubble.
• Investment in Future Value: Companies like Tesla are presenting the highest level of future value, and the concentration of investments in US companies continues.

2. Global Energy and the Need for Power Grids

• Power Grid Infrastructure Issues: Even with energy production, it often cannot be delivered to consumers due to insufficient power grids. Especially, renewable energies like solar and wind power have supply instability.
• Increased Power Demand due to AI: The proliferation of AI, including the expansion of data centers, is causing a surge in electricity consumption, increasing the need for power grid infrastructure.
• Core of Opportunity: Investment potential lies in power grid construction, and companies related to transmission and distribution infrastructure. Focus on technology and companies related to power transmission and distribution.

3. Military Tensions and the Expansion of the Defense Industry

• Russia-Ukraine War and Defense Industry Expansion: Military tensions are likely to continue even after the war ends. Increased defense spending by each country is expanding the defense market.
• Competitiveness of the South Korean Defense Industry: Stable growth is projected due to increased defense exports, mainly to European countries like Poland.
• Deglobalization and Increased Defense Spending: The pursuit of self-reliant defense and increased defense budgets are continuously expanding the size of the defense industry.

4. 25-Year Industry Map for Listed Companies

• Top-Down Investment Approach: Setting investment directions based on industry trends and overall value chain structure rather than specific companies.
• Focus on Energy and Defense Sectors: Searching for valuable sectors and companies that will benefit from the energy transition and military tensions.

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< Summary >

• Warren Buffett's highest cash holdings in 34 years is not necessarily an indication of an impending stock market crash. There have been cases where decisions failing to recognize future value have led to failures.
• The construction of energy and power grid infrastructure is a must in the renewable energy era, driving up demand. There are opportunities in power grid and transmission/distribution companies.
• The defense industry is expected to grow continuously due to the Russia-Ukraine war and global military tensions. Expectations are rising for the South Korean defense industry, starting with Poland.
• It is advisable to make investment decisions with a 'top-down' strategy that understands the overall flow and structure of the industry.

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• Crafted by Billy Yang
  [Related Articles at Next-Korea.com]

1. Buffett Indicator: How Much of a Bubble Is It?
2. 2025 Semiconductor and AI Industry Outlook

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

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