Tesla Q4 Earnings and Outlook: Why It Matters?

1. Overview of Tesla's Q4 Earnings

Tesla's Q4 earnings are likely to be stable.
While automotive sales are key, the energy business is also growing.
Earnings announcements impact short-term stock prices, but long-term value should be considered.

2. Sales Structure Analysis

2-1. Automotive Sales

Over 80% of Tesla's revenue is concentrated in its automotive business.
The average selling price of vehicles has recently declined slightly but still contributes strongly to revenue.
Vehicle sales in Q4 are estimated at approximately $21 billion.

2-2. Energy Sales

The energy sector is experiencing rapid revenue growth along with increased installations.
Revenue for this quarter is expected to be $3.5 billion.
The gross profit margin for the energy sector is around 30%, reflecting high margins.

2-3. Other Service Revenue

Service and other revenues are steadily increasing and remain at a stable level.

3. Profit Structure Analysis

3-1. Vehicle Sales Gross Profit

Vehicle sales generate a profit of $4.1 billion, with a conservative gross profit margin of approximately 19.67%.

3-2. Gross Profit from Energy and Other Sectors

A conservative profit margin of approximately 27% is applied to the gross profit from the energy sector.
The gross profit margins from service and other sectors are not large and do not constitute a significant portion of overall performance.

4. Net Profit and Corporate Growth Direction

4-1. Estimated Short-Term Net Profit

According to the analyzed figures, Tesla's Q4 net profit is estimated at approximately $2.4 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be around $0.68.
If revenue recognition related to FSD (Full Self-Driving) is included, EPS could potentially rise to $0.81.

4-2. Bitcoin Accounting Treatment Possibility

Revaluing Tesla's Bitcoin holdings at current market prices could potentially reflect an additional $1 billion in profit. However, this is a one-time change unrelated to the actual business.

4-3. Inflection Point from 2025

Tesla plans to transition from a hardware-centric to a software-centric company (expanding AI and FSD sales).
The high profit margin (over 70%) of software sales is expected to significantly change Tesla's business structure.

5. Investment Perspective and Long-Term Strategy

Short-term stock price fluctuations after earnings announcements are temporary.
Tesla's strong long-term value is based on the growth potential of its AI, software, and energy businesses.
The focus should be on the core business structure transformation, rather than short-term stock price movement.

< Summary >

Tesla's Q4 earnings are likely to be stable and record positive figures.
While automotive sales are key, growth in energy and other sales is notable.
Net profit is expected to be approximately $2.4 billion, and EPS could potentially reach $0.81.
The essence of investment success is the 2025 transition to a software-centric company.
Focus on long-term core business strategy rather than short-term stock price fluctuations.

Crafted by Billy Yang

[Related articles at Next-Korea.com]

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Japan's Additional Interest Rate Hike: Causes and Market Impact

1. Timeline of Japan's Interest Rate Hikes

Since 2016, Japan has maintained a long period of negative interest rates (-0.1%), utilizing extreme monetary policy.
In March 2024, Japan moved away from negative interest rates, transitioning to positive interest rates (+0.1%), marking the first rate hike.
In July 2024, an additional interest rate hike was implemented, raising the rate to +0.25%.
In January 2025, Japan raised interest rates for the third time, reaching +0.5%. This marks the highest level of interest rates in Japan in 30 years.

2. Background of the Interest Rate Hike

(1) High Inflation Rate

Japan's inflation rate significantly exceeded the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s target of 2%, reaching 3.6% by the end of 2024, which prompted the interest rate hikes.
The core inflation rate (excluding food and energy) also rose above 3%, making a stable monetary policy difficult.

(2) Benchmark Interest Rate Target

Japan's target neutral interest rate is estimated to be around +0.7%. This is an attempt to normalize the economy from the negative effects of low interest rates.
Low interest rates led to a weak yen and capital outflows, necessitating interest rate hikes to correct these issues.

(3) Economic Recovery and Stability

The Japanese economy declined due to the pandemic but is currently slowly recovering.
The 2024 economic growth rate was rather low at 0.4%, but growth of more than 1% is expected in 2025.
However, interest rates must still be raised cautiously, as concerns about an economic slowdown remain.

3. Impact of the Interest Rate Hike

(1) Potential Liquidation of Yen Carry Trades

A yen carry trade involves borrowing funds at Japan's low interest rates and investing in higher-interest-rate countries (e.g., the U.S.) to profit from the difference.
Japan's interest rate hikes could reduce yen carry trades and induce a liquidation of carry trades, causing capital to return to Japan.
However, given that Japanese interest rates remain low at 0.5%, a gradual liquidation is more likely than a sudden one.

(2) Exchange Rate

Japan's interest rate hikes carry the potential for a stronger yen, which may cause the yen-dollar exchange rate to gradually decrease (trend of JPY appreciation).
However, U.S. interest rates remain high, so the allure of yen carry trades has not completely vanished.

(3) Impact on Global Financial Markets

If the liquidation of yen carry trades accelerates, there is a possibility of capital outflow from the U.S. and global stock markets.
The market shock is expected to be limited, and in the long term, both the Japanese and global economies are likely to stabilize.

4. Significance of Japan's Interest Rate Hike and Future Outlook

(1) Historical Importance

Japan has reached its highest interest rate level in 30 years. This signals a pivot in Japan's monetary policy.
It can be seen as a move to recover from the past negative interest rate stance and align with global standards.

(2) Outlook for 2025 and Beyond

Japan aims to raise interest rates to 0.7%, balancing stable economic growth with price control.
This contrasts with major global countries gradually lowering interest rates, suggesting Japan's financial market is likely to continue its independent trajectory.

< Summary >

Japan is shifting its interest rate policy by raising interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level in 30 years.

Driven by high inflation rates (3.6%) and a neutral interest rate target (0.7%), Japan has implemented the rate hike despite concerns over an economic slowdown.

This rate hike is expected to induce a gradual liquidation of yen carry trades and stabilize the value of the yen.

However, the impact may be limited due to the still large interest rate gap with the U.S., and the Japanese economy is expected to move in line with more specific growth projections from 2025.

Investors should closely monitor global market volatility resulting from changes in Japan’s interest rates.

Crafted by Billy Yang

[Related Articles at Next-Korea.com]

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– [속보] 일본의 3번째 금리인상. 17년만의 높은 금리시대 진입. 엔캐리 청산과 블랙먼데이 재현될까? [즉시분석]

Tesla Model Y: New Release and Key Information

1. New Model Y Launch in the US and Canada

Tesla has announced the new Model Y in the United States and Canada.
Purchases are available on the official Tesla website, and new information regarding design changes and performance has been added.

Key Pricing Information
The new Model Y is priced at $59,990 in the US.
There is still a possibility of applying the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. When applied, the actual purchase price is around $52,490.
Improved Range
The new Model Y offers a range of 320 miles, which is 9 miles more than the previous model.
Delivery Schedule

Deliveries in the US are scheduled to begin in March 2024.

2. Design Improvements and New Features

Welcome Screen Animation
A new welcome screen animation has been added. It has been updated with more flamboyant and eye-catching visuals.
Exterior Design
The design of the headlights and taillights has been changed, and the 19-inch wheel covers have also adopted a new star-shaped, shiny design.
Improved Trunk Function

The new trunk allows you to adjust the angle of the rear seats with the push of a button. This is considered to maximize user convenience.

3. Tesla Global News

Model Y "Juniper" Unveiled in China
In China, demonstrations of the new Model Y have begun in showrooms. Consumer reviews of the new design and features are actively underway.
FSD (Full Self-Driving) Technology Updates
Tesla is in discussions with various automakers about FSD licensing. There are also high expectations that additional information regarding FSD technology's release schedule and technological changes may be revealed during the earnings call.

4. Tesla's Robot "Optimus" Development Status

Interest in Tesla's robot "Optimus" is also growing.

Mass Production Expected in 2026
Tesla is aiming to start producing robots for internal use by 2025 and mass-produce robots for external use by 2026.
Production Scale
The plan is to produce about 600 robots per week, which is expected to result in the production of approximately 31,200 robots in 2025.

5. Political Activities and Attacks on Tesla in Germany

Political activists in Germany attacked the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin by projecting the phrase "Heil Tesla" with a projector. This action is seen as an attempt to associate Tesla with the Nazis and inflict economic damage.

In response, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defended Elon Musk and Tesla, strongly opposing such attacks.

< Summary >

Tesla has released the new Model Y, announcing improvements in driving range, design, and price. In addition to product exhibitions in China and the US, the development of the robot "Optimus" is also underway. Amid increasing attacks on Tesla in Germany, the Israeli Prime Minister has taken a position to defend Musk, and various international incidents are also ongoing.

Crafted by Billy Yang

[Related Articles at Next-Korea.com]

Tesla Model Y Juniper Analysis
https://Next-Korea.com?s=테슬라
Optimus Robot Mass Production Rumors
https://Next-Korea.com?s=로봇

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2024 Model Y Lineup Addition and Price Changes

Tesla has launched a new "Model Y" lineup.
In the US, it's priced at $52,900 with slightly improved mileage over the "Long Range" version. This price includes the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit.
The new option boasts a "320-mile" range, an increase of approximately 9 miles compared to the previous model.

Notably, there are also changes in the graphic details of this Model Y, such as the animated welcome screen.

Germany, Netherlands Key Activities and Giga Berlin Issues

Political groups are projecting specific messages using beam projectors at Tesla's German factory. It's speculated that this is an attempt to associate Tesla with Nazi imagery.
Similar protests have occurred in the Netherlands, bringing attention to the competitive landscape among German automakers.
Notably, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly defended Elon Musk regarding these events in Germany. This seems to be due to Musk's history of strongly opposing anti-Semitism.

Tesla Model Y Exhibition and Design Changes in China

Model Y exhibitions have commenced in China.
Through broadcasts and major reviews, newly modified designs and features (such as 19-inch wheel covers and light details) are being unveiled.
Changes in the interior and exterior light designs, as well as the rear trunk and its operation, are anticipated. The star-shaped wheel covers, in particular, are generating new interest.

Expected Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Announcement

Much attention is currently focused on Tesla's earnings announcement and the subsequent Q&A session with Elon Musk.
Key questions include:
- Full Self-Driving (FSD): When is it expected to launch in Texas and California?
- FSD Licensing Collaborations with Other Companies: Potential disclosure of related details.
- Optimus Robot: Expected external sales launch timeline in 2026 and its price.
As a rumor, Tesla internally shared a plan to produce approximately 30,000 robots in 2025.

< Summary >

Tesla Model Y new lineup announcement: Increased range and design updates.
Political group protests in Germany and resulting key issues.
Model Y exhibition in China and unveiling of a new design.
Major questions and expectations for FSD, robot plans, etc., following the Q4 earnings announcement.