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FMC Announcement and Nasdaq Volatility: Key Highlights and Analysis
1. FMC Statement and Market Reaction
- The FMC kept interest rates unchanged, which was largely in line with market expectations.
- Negative Market Signal: The statement removed the phrase 'progress toward inflation goals.' Mention of a robust labor market suggests a possible "hawkish interpretation."
- Immediate Stock Drop: Nasdaq declined immediately after the statement was released.
2. Chairman Powell's Remarks and Nasdaq Recovery
- Chairman Powell attempted to stabilize the market with dovish comments on key questions.
- Example: "There has been no change in the inflation outlook."
- "Interest rate cuts do not necessarily have to occur after reaching the 2% inflation target" is a positive signal for the market.
- "There are no immediate changes to the balance sheet" also calmed market anxieties.
- Nasdaq partially recovered after Powell's press conference.
3. Factors Behind Nvidia's Stock Plunge
- Main Cause: Possible Strengthening of China's Semiconductor Export Regulations
- Increased market concern over the U.S. continuing to restrict the export of high-performance semiconductors to China.
- Nvidia is suspected of supplying semiconductors to Chinese companies through Singapore -> Concerns about a significant impact on its revenue structure.
- Controversy over the possibility of AI semiconductor technology theft due to the emergence of DeepSeek (DiSiq).
- Additional Market Burden:
- Debates over the training costs and efficiency of DeepSeek.
- Questions about the necessity of Nvidia GPUs and a drop in market confidence.
4. Hot Issues in the AI and Semiconductor Market
- DeepSeek Training Cost Controversy and Market Expansion
- Major investment costs are concentrated on related infrastructure rather than training.
- Reducing AI costs is interpreted as an opportunity for market expansion.
- ASML and Advantest Performance Increases
- Stock price increases reflect strong demand for semiconductor equipment and testing.
- However, the possibility of Chinese export regulations is a negative factor.
5. Other Discussed Matters
- Inflation Management and Timing of Interest Rate Cuts
- Importance of 12-month inflation data was mentioned.
- Emphasis on a more restrictive level than the neutral rate -> Leaving room for interest rate cuts.
- Remarks Regarding Cryptocurrency
- The possibility of continuing cryptocurrency services while maintaining bank risk management was mentioned.
6. Today's Key Events
- Major companies scheduled to announce earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla.
- Management comments on AI costs (including those related to DeepSeek) are expected to impact market volatility.
< Summary >
The Nasdaq fell immediately after the FMC statement was interpreted as hawkish, but it recovered due to Chairman Powell's dovish comments. Nvidia's stock plunged more than 5% due to semiconductor regulation issues between the U.S. and China, as well as controversies over the theft of AI semiconductor technology. In the AI and semiconductor markets, controversies over DeepSeek training costs and increased equipment demand and sales for companies like ASML remain major issues.
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*YouTube Source: [내일은 투자왕 – 김단테]
– 엔비디아 오늘도 대폭락. 계속되는 딥시크 폭락장과 FOMC
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