FMC Meeting Results and Key Points

1. Key Details of Interest Rate Decision

● Interest Rate Decision: Unanimous

The interest rate decision at this FMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting was unanimous.

● Changes in Labor Market Language

The phrase "labor market conditions have eased" has been removed from the previous statement.
Instead, it has been changed to "the unemployment rate is stabilizing at low levels, and the labor market remains solid."

2. Statement Wording Changes and Interpretations

● Deletion of "2% Inflation Target" Phrase

Specific language related to the Fed's target of 2% inflation was omitted from this statement.
This can be interpreted as an indication that there may be a change in the price stability target, raising various questions in the market.

● Chairman Powell's Position

Chairman Powell said, "Do not give great significance to the changes in the statement language," but skepticism remains in the market.
This could be seen as leaving the possibility open to raise the future inflation target from 2% (e.g., to 3%).

3. Internal Fed Stance and Influence of the Trump Administration

● Fed and Independence

While the Fed has stated that "policy decisions move based on inflation targets and employment conditions," the market suspects that it is strongly influenced by former President Trump.

● Inflation Debate

Political interpretations are being added to the inflation outlook, and it has been pointed out that inflation expectations among Republican and Democrat supporters are contradictory.

● Withdrawal from NGFS (Network for Greening the Financial System)

The Fed recently withdrew from NGFS, and Chairman Powell explained the reason for the withdrawal, saying, "Price and employment stability are the main tasks of the Fed."
However, the market interprets this as being related to former President Trump's climate policies.

● Shift in Stance on Cryptocurrencies

Chairman Powell showed a more progressive stance than before, stating, "If bank risk management is possible, cryptocurrencies are not a problem."
This has been interpreted as a positive signal for the cryptocurrency industry.

● Statements from the Czech Central Bank

The Governor of the Czech Central Bank announced that they are considering investing 5% of their foreign exchange reserves in Bitcoin.

6. Market Reaction

● Stock Prices

The stock market showed temporary volatility due to the meeting results, but overall it maintained a stable trend.

● Interest Rates

Interest rates fluctuated due to statements about deep-sk, but there were no significant changes.

● Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices rose after Chairman Powell's remarks on cryptocurrencies.

< Summary >

The Fed's interest rate decision was unanimous, and the removal of the 2% inflation target phrase from the statement caused controversy.
Chairman Powell said that the language change is not significant, but the market is suspicious of a possible change in the inflation target.
The Fed is distancing itself from climate-related policies by withdrawing from the NGFS and has shown a more progressive stance toward cryptocurrencies.
The stock and interest rate markets were stable, and Bitcoin showed an upward trend.

[More…]

Factors and Outlook for Bitcoin's Rise: https://Next-Korea.com?s=Bitcoin
Analysis of the Fed's Policies and Economic Outlook: https://Next-Korea.com?s=TheFed

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– [속보효] FOMC 리뷰입니다. 그런데 파월이 트럼프에게 충성을 맹세한 것 같아요

US Federal Reserve January FOMC Meeting Results Summary and Analysis

1. Interest Rate Freeze (4.5%)

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to freeze the benchmark interest rate at 4.5% in this FOMC meeting.

The market had already anticipated the Fed's rate freeze, so there was no significant shock.
More attention is focused on the future changes in monetary policy stance rather than the rate freeze itself.

2. Key Points of the Statement

Recent key phrases related to the labor market and inflation have been changed.

A. Employment Situation

The labor market remains robust with the unemployment rate maintained at low levels.
However, since employment stability is maintained, interest rate adjustments will be made more cautiously.

B. Inflation and Price Policy

The phrase "progress towards the 2% target" from the previous announcement has been removed this time.
Currently, prices are still maintained at higher levels than the Fed's target.
A strong hawkish signal was left in the statement: "Excluding intentions to cut interest rates for the time being."

3. Summary of Chairman Powell's Press Conference

Chairman Powell maintained a cautious attitude regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

A. Economic Growth and Employment

Re-emphasized that both price stability and maximum employment will be achieved simultaneously.
If the labor market weakens, additional interest rate cuts could be considered, but there is currently little need for it.

B. Inflation Expectations

The U.S. economy is evaluated that the current benchmark interest rate level is sufficiently tight.
It was mentioned that "timely rate adjustments" are necessary to prevent a rise in inflation expectations.

C. Mention of Trump's Pressure to Cut Rates

Emphasized that his past "demand for immediate rate cuts" from former President Trump at the Davos forum was irrelevant to "political pressure."
Clearly stated that the Fed's independence will be maintained.

D. Cash and Bond Purchase Strategy (QT, Quantitative Tightening)

Maintaining continuous observation rather than hasty changes.
There is no plan to immediately end quantitative tightening (QT).

4. Impact on the US Economy and Global Markets

Summarizing the changes the FOMC meeting and related remarks have had on the market.

A. Treasury Bond Yields

Immediately after the announcement, treasury bond yields temporarily rose due to the hawkish tone of the statement.
Afterwards, treasury bond yields stabilized due to Powell's moderate press conference.

B. Dollar Index

Slightly rose after the rate freeze and then stabilized.

C. Stock Market

The market had already reflected the rate freeze, so there were no major changes, but the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices temporarily rose.

5. Future Interest Rate Outlook

The Fed's estimated neutral interest rate range is 3%-4%, and the current rate is evaluated to be near the upper end.
The market is considering the possibility of additional rate cuts in June and October this year, but under current conditions, the likelihood of a rate cut is low.

6. Key Economic Indicators

Key U.S. economic indicators to be released in the future are important.

PC Price and GDP (scheduled for release on January 30): Key data needed to read the direction of the Fed's policy.
Employment Report (maintained at 4.1%): Reaffirms that the labor market is robust as of now.

< Summary >

The Fed froze the interest rate at 4.5%, which was already an expected result in the market.
The statement contained a hawkish tone, expressing concern over still high prices.
Chairman Powell emphasized remarks that seemed to transparently exclude the possibility of additional rate cuts.
Confirmation of rising inflation expectations, policy changes will be decided after monitoring key indicators.
There were no major fluctuations in the financial markets, and the situation is getting closer to the neutral rate level.

[More…]

✅ Related Article: Analysis of the U.S. Interest Rate Outlook and the Fed's Hawkish Stance
https://Next-Korea.com?s=interestrate

✅ Financial Market Response Strategy After the FOMC Meeting
https://Next-Korea.com?s=market

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

– [속보] 1월 FOMC 금리동결. 트럼프의 금리인하 압력에도 기준금리 인하 중단할까? [즉시분석]

Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings and Autonomous Driving Service Announcement

1. Tesla's Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Tesla missed Wall Street's expectations in its Q4 2024 earnings (underperforming on both EPS and revenue).
Actual EPS was lower than expected, and revenue also fell short of expectations at approximately $25.71 billion.
The stock price initially plunged by 8.8% due to the earnings miss announcement, but subsequently rebounded strongly to a 4% gain.
Model Y is expected to be the best-selling vehicle globally in 2024.
Earnings were lower due to infrastructure and AI investments, but this was explained as necessary for long-term growth.

2. Increased Investment in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

Tesla has installed approximately 50,000 GPU training clusters at its Texas Gigafactory.
The GPU clusters are used to improve the performance of Full Self Driving (FSD) technology.
Training data for FSD version 13 has increased by 4.2 times, with high-resolution video processing and latency significantly reduced.
Enhanced AI training computing power is accelerating the development of autonomous driving and Optimus (robot) technologies.

3. Autonomous Robot Taxi and 2025 Plans

Plans to launch an autonomous robot taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025 for a fee.
The robot taxi will be equipped with FSD technology that operates perfectly without human intervention.
Customers with Hardware 3.0 will have limited access to the latest autonomous driving updates. Customers who purchased FSD will receive free upgrades.
Elon Musk expressed strong confidence in the future outlook, stating, "It will be the most valuable company on Earth."

4. New Vehicles and Battery Business

Model Q: Scheduled for release in 2025. A new low-cost vehicle lineup under development.
Giga Nevada: Expected to be completed in 2025 for the exclusive production of Semi trucks.
4680 battery cells: Support for an annual production volume of 130,000 Cybertrucks. Expecting mass production of Cybertrucks.
Tesla's battery-related assets: Completed its own lithium refinery, expecting cost reductions through lithium refining technology.

5. Energy Business Growth

Shanghai Megapack factory begins operation (2025). Mass production of Megapack products is expected.
Revenue from the energy business is growing faster than the electric vehicle sector.
Energy storage revenue is expected to record a growth rate of over 50% by 2024.

6. Tesla's Global Market Situation

North America and Europe: Slight decrease in market share.
China: Model Y recorded the highest sales during Q4.
South Korea: Tesla is establishing itself as the fastest-growing brand.

7. Robots (Optimus) and New Business Models

Aiming to produce 10,000 Optimus robots in 2025, with a future target of 100 million units annually.
Robot sales price is set at under $20,000 per unit.
Tesla values the robot business higher than the automotive business, expecting long-term growth.

8. Autonomous Driving Licenses and Partnerships

Many automotive manufacturers are showing interest in Tesla's FSD licenses.
License provision will be limited to companies capable of large-scale production.

< Summary >

Tesla underperformed expectations in its Q4 2024 earnings, but anticipates long-term growth through AI, FSD, energy business, and new model launches.

In particular, it plans to commercialize unmanned robot taxis in Austin, Texas, in June 2025, introducing an innovative autonomous driving service.

With the expansion of battery and energy businesses, robot production plans, and targeting global markets, the future vision is being concretized.

[More…]

1. Tesla Autonomous Driving Technology Development
https://Next-Korea.com?s=autonomousdriving

2. The Future of Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage Technology
https://Next-Korea.com?s=energy

*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]

– 충격! 테슬라 어닝콜 발표 로보택시 올해 6월 시작한다! 모델2 2025년 출시 확정! 테슬라 시총 1위 된다 일론의 놀라운 세부 계획 발표 분석!