Analysis of the DeepSeek Situation and Big Tech's AI Investment Outlook

1. What is the DeepSeek Situation?

The DeepSeek situation is a significant event that marks a major shift in the AI industry. It is seen as a catalyst that has sent ripples through the global AI sector due to substantial performance improvements from new AI technologies and optimization methods in China.

The DeepSeek phenomenon has prompted companies to reassess how they allocate resources, as it has lowered AI computing costs and increased efficiency.

2. AI Investment Trends Observed Through Big Tech Earnings Calls and Performance Reports

NVIDIA and AI Infrastructure Stocks

Meta: It was expected that long-term AI investments would be maintained, as they expressed their intention to continually increase capital expenditures (CapEx). However, a slight reservation was noted in their statement that "different conclusions could be reached depending on the situation."
Microsoft: They appeared to have somewhat cooled their investment enthusiasm, stating that "it might be difficult to generate demand if operating costs become excessively high" and that "they will not purchase large quantities of resources all at once."
Tesla: Capital expenditures for 2025 are expected to remain the same as the previous year, and significant investment expansion is not anticipated. Instead, they emphasized future visions for autonomous driving technology and their robot project (Optimus).

Overall Tone Down Among Big Tech CEOs

There has been a decrease in enthusiasm for AI investments, from an initial 100 points to around 85 points.
While AI remains a key investment area, a more cautious approach is being taken, rather than reacting drastically to DeepSeek.

3. Long-Term Impact of DeepSeek and AI Technology

DeepSeek Technology Viewed as a Natural Phenomenon

Big tech companies regard DeepSeek technology as "part of innovation and natural technological progress."
They are taking a long-term view that the industry is "learning and adapting to new innovations" rather than focusing on short-term disruptions or overvaluations.

Impact of DeepSeek on the Future Direction of AI Investment

There is a maintained positive outlook that AI utilization will increase as "improved technological efficiency" and "reduced computing costs" are expected.
However, rather than drastically changing existing investment strategies, big tech companies are taking a gradual investment approach after careful review.

4. Stock Prices and Market Reaction

NVIDIA: Following big tech's earnings announcements, its stock price fell by -0.61%, indicating that there was no strong positive signal to resolve the DeepSeek situation.
Meta: Currently up 2.78% after its earnings announcement.
Tesla: Saw an approximate 4% increase due to its future vision announcements.
Microsoft: Down by 4% due to lowered performance and guidance.

< Summary >

The DeepSeek situation is considered a natural part of AI technological advancement, with big tech companies expected to learn and adapt to innovation.
Big tech companies such as Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla are continuing to invest in AI but are displaying a more cautious attitude than before.
With this earnings announcement, it's anticipated that the recovery of DeepSeek-related stocks will take longer, with no short-term solutions in sight.

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Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Semiconductor Development and Mass Production Competition

1. Samsung Electronics' DRAM Development and Mass Production Schedule Delays

Samsung Electronics is facing a situation where it needs to redesign the One(B) DRAM that it has been mass-producing for a year.
This signifies that structural issues have emerged in the 12nm-based One(B) DRAM.
The development and mass production schedule for One(C) DRAM has also been delayed until June of this year, shifting the mass production target to within the year.
This has resulted in a continued incompatibility with protocols of major customers such as NVIDIA.

2. SK Hynix's Competitive Advantage

SK Hynix completed the development of One(C) DRAM in October of last year and began mass production in February of this year.
In the early stages of One(C) DRAM mass production, they recorded a high yield of 70%.
SK Hynix holds a dominant position in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) technology, being the first among its competitors.

3. Samsung Electronics in the Foundry Market

Expanding gap in foundry market share with TSMC: Samsung 13-14%, TSMC 65%.
Despite introducing new technology (GAA: Gate-All-Around), they failed to overtake TSMC.
Targeting approximately 3,000 Chinese pure fabless companies, strengthening sales.
Added two DSP (Design Solution Partner) companies, expanding the supply chain and ecosystem in China.

Threats and Environment of Chinese Semiconductor Technology

1. CXMT and YTMC's Leap Forward

CXMT has manufactured DRAM samples equivalent to HBM2 level.
YMTC is moving to take the lead in the NAND flash sector with next-generation hybrid bonding technology.
Rapid technological advancements are also underway by Chinese companies in the latest products like DDR5.

2. Impact of US Regulations

Sanctions policies from the US Department of Defense, aiming to blacklist CXMT.
Restrictions on supplies to China from TSMC and US companies leading to an expansion of China's own production capacity.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics' Glass Substrate Strategy Change

1. Change in Internal Production Strategy Due to Technical and Environmental Issues

Samsung Electro-Mechanics intends to outsource some production in the TGV process to external companies.
Environmental pollution issues and cost burdens in the glass processing industry are the main reasons.

2. Competition from SKC Solmics

SKC is already a leader in glass processing. Chairman Chey Tae-won directly secured supply agreements with global companies.
The potential of small and medium-sized outsourcing companies, especially companies like Camtronics, is highlighted.

< Summary >
Samsung Electronics is facing challenges such as delays and redesign issues in DRAM development, and a decrease in foundry market share. On the other hand, SK Hynix is gaining an advantage with its HBM and One(C) DRAM technology. The technological advancement of Chinese companies and US regulations are having a significant impact on the market. Samsung Electro-Mechanics' change in its glass substrate strategy is providing new opportunities for outsourcing companies.

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