Tesla Stock and Earnings Analysis: Volatility and Key Issues

📈 Tesla Stock Status

Current Stock Price: 400.2, up 2.87% in one day.
Key Stock Volatility:
- 1 Week: -2.93%
- 1 Month: -7.27%
- 6 Months: +79.8%
- Since January 2025: -0.88%
Percentage Increase Needed to Recover Previous High: Approximately 22.05% additional increase needed to reach $488.

Tesla's stock price fluctuations have shown an extreme roller coaster, with positive and negative interpretations related to earnings announcements directly impacting Wall Street's investment sentiment.

🚗 Tesla's Key Earnings Highlights

1. Tesla's New Models and Pricing Strategy

New Vehicle Launch Plans:
- Launch of a new car 'Model 2' at a reasonable price (under $35,000) planned for the first half of 2025.
- The new car will be produced using a mix of existing and next-generation platforms, utilizing the same production line.
Model 2 Features:
- Expected to be a low-cost compact model.
- Possibly a scaled-down version of Model 3 and Model Y.
- Cost savings through use of the same parts and lines.
Production Volume Goals:
Goal of 60% production growth in 2024.
Continuous growth is expected beyond 2025, but doubts are raised about its feasibility.

2. Robotics and Autonomous Driving

Robotaxi Launch Scheduled for June:
- A significant indicator aimed at the implementation of Full Self-Driving (FSD).
- Demonstrates the ongoing development of AI-based autonomous driving systems to date.
FSD Technology Test Results:
- Vehicles can leave the factory in full autonomous mode and move to a designated location.
- Expansion of automation technology for Tesla vehicle production and FSD initial setup.

🔍 Wall Street's View: Positive vs. Negative

1. Negative Opinions

Margin Decline Issues:
- Automotive sector margins continue to decline at 13.6%.
- Need to adjust production volume due to weak demand.
Skepticism about FSD and Technology:
- Judgment that the commercialization of autonomous driving technology will take longer.
- Point out that more focus should be on traditional EV sales.
Conservative Stock Outlook:
Possibility that autonomous driving technology may only serve as a stock manipulation tool, such as advertising.
Assessment that "there will be no major changes until 2026".

2. Positive Opinions

Emphasis on Long-Term Perspective:
- View FSD and robotics as the core drivers of Tesla's new growth.
- Potential for robotaxi launch and new model announcement in June to be catalysts for stock price increases.
Advancement of FSD Technology:
- Implementation of technology that allows vehicles to move themselves to a loading location.
- Remarkable progress in AI-based autonomous driving software up to version 13.
Raised Target Stock Price:
Reflecting the possibility of stock price reaching $540 by 2026, and long-term growth potential by 2030.

✋ Key Issues

Robotaxi and Model 2 Launch Potential:
- Specific schedules and performance are expected to directly impact the stock price.
- Attention will be paid to whether Tesla can gain trust amid Wall Street's skepticism.
Evaluation Based on FSD Technology Completion:
- Currently, the level of autonomous driving is continuously being improved from a 'driver assistance function' level.
- However, the prevailing view is that commercialization of full autonomous driving in the short term is difficult.
Balance of Production Volume and Demand:

Concerns about "cannibalization," where the production of Model 3, Model Y, and new models will erode sales of existing vehicles.

< Summary >

Tesla's stock price shows high volatility. Current key issues are new model launches, commercialization of autonomous driving technology (FSD), production efficiency, and Wall Street's evaluations.
Positive opinions focus on long-term growth potential, while negative evaluations focus on short-term weak demand and margin declines.
The robotaxi launch in June and the announcement of Model 2 are expected to be important turning points.

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The Dawn of AI Growth: Analysis of DeepSeek's Impact and Investment Strategies

The Emergence of DeepSeek and Volatility in Major Tech Stocks Including NVIDIA

DeepSeek Provides AI Innovation and Creative Solutions

DeepSeek presents creative methodologies for cost reduction in AI.
Implementation of smart models that can replace or complement high-performance chips like NVIDIA.
However, there are concerns about the potential decline in the profit margin of the high-performance chip market and the spread of alternative technologies.

International AI Competition and the Demand Outlook for NVIDIA Chips

As countries worldwide begin to invest in AI, chip demand is expected to increase.
The need for high-performance chips is increasing, especially in advanced technology fields such as autonomous driving and robotics.
The US government and corporations are aggressively expanding investments in AI, comparable to the space race.

Comparison of DeepSeek's Model Efficiency and Limitations

Model Innovation: Greater Efficiency with Fewer Resources

DeepSeek reduces costs and capacity by deleting unnecessary parts of existing models and using selective processing.
The strategy of "calling an expert only when needed" maximizes memory usage and efficiency.

Risk Factors: DeepSeek and AI Privacy and Security Issues

DeepSeek's data collection policy and secure storage issues in China are expected to cause conflict with the US.
Claims of technology infringement by OpenAI raise the possibility of legal disputes.
The potential for escalating conflicts between AI-leading countries regarding intellectual property rights and privacy issues.

Investment Strategy: Setting the Direction of Investments Centered on AI

Necessary Approaches for Investors During the Growth Phase of AI

Need to strengthen investments in software and hardware AI companies (e.g., NVIDIA, Palantir).
Continued interest in industrial, financial, and telecommunication service sectors, focusing on IT.
Growth investment using ETFs: Recommended investment in new AI technology ETFs and sector-specific investments.

Global Investment: Focus on the US and Japan, Avoid China

Pay attention to US AI-based technology stocks and strengthened strategic government investments.
Growth potential in Japan due to the spread of AI and technology.
China's low-cost-based tactics are becoming less attractive, and long-term risks are increasing.

Comparison of the Past Internet Era and the AI Growth Era

Examples from the 90s Internet Era

Just as the growth of the internet increased productivity and profitability, similar patterns are expected with AI.
Potential for high-speed growth centered on Nasdaq, led by the software and hardware industries.

Explosive Economic Growth Brought by AI Expansion

AI is expected to expand market reach through cost reduction and accelerate overall economic growth.
Confidence in the synergy between the protection of intellectual property rights and the strengthening of technological leadership in the US.

Conclusion: Rebalancing Stock, Bond, and Alternative Asset Portfolios

Maintain a basic principle of 80% stocks and 20% bonds.
Consider adding 10% in alternative assets (gold, Bitcoin, etc.).
Minimize risk and maximize growth returns by adjusting the portfolio focusing on the US.

< Summary >

As DeepSeek's AI innovative technology contributes to cost reduction, signaling a change in demand for chips like NVIDIA, investments in software and hardware companies based on AI technology are becoming increasingly important. Understanding investment trends focused on developed countries such as the US and Japan is a priority, and it is necessary to adjust portfolios between stocks, bonds, and alternative assets at a time when the long-term growth potential of AI is high.

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Analysis of the Emergence of Chinese AI 'DipSik' and the Decline in Big Tech Stocks

1. Nasdaq Futures Decline and Plunge in Big Tech Stocks

Nasdaq Futures Change: Nasdaq futures are down nearly 3% even before the market opens.
Impact on Big Tech Stocks: Major big tech companies' stocks are down 5% before the market opens.
The reason is the market shock due to the development of AI technology in China, especially the emergence of 'DipSik'.

2. Background of the Emergence of 'DipSik' in China

U.S. Regulations:
- The U.S. government, under the Biden administration, is regulating the export of NVIDIA's high-performance chips (e.g., H100) to China.
- China found an alternative with the downgraded model, NVIDIA 'H800'.
China's Challenge: Despite limited technological resources, China developed AI and announced a model at the 'DipSik' level.

3. Key Features of 'DipSik'

Efficient Learning Costs:
- China's 'DipSik' mentions Meta's Llama 3 learning cost (approximately 800 billion KRW), and provides performance similar to ChatGPT at a low cost.
- A major advantage is that it is very affordable compared to OpenAI's ChatGPT.
Performance Comparison:
- Costs are minimized, and the performance is evaluated to be not much different from ChatGPT.
- It has emerged as a strong competitor threatening the U.S. AI leadership.

4. Disadvantages and Controversies of DipSik

Censorship Issues:
- As is typical of the Chinese government, AI operates within a strong censorship system.
- Free conversational responses are difficult, and there is a high possibility that creative questions will be limited.
Practicality:
- If we exclude censorship issues, it is more attractive than existing paid AI models (approximately 30,000 KRW for the ChatGPT 3 plan) in terms of cost savings and free provision.

5. Challenges and Tasks for U.S. AI

Increased Big Tech Uncertainty:
- To maintain its continued lead in the AI market, the U.S. needs not only technological development but also policy innovation.
- Due to the competition from Chinese AI, investors' confidence in the growth potential of U.S. stocks is wavering.
Future Competitive Environment:
- It appears that the U.S. AI will gain an advantage if it maximizes cost efficiency and presents more distinct performance differentiation in the AI market.