AI, Big Tech, and Investment Strategies: Market Trends and Analysis

1. Stock Price and Valuation: What Determines Them?

Stock prices are greatly influenced not only by a company's profits but also by its valuation.
Valuations are formed based on investors' interest and expectations. Companies with a "wow factor" attract more attention, potentially leading to stock price increases.

2. Software vs. Hardware: AI-Centric Market Shift

The center of gravity in the AI market is shifting from hardware to software.
Due to DeepSec technology, the appeal of hardware compared to AI software is somewhat diminished.
The situation is clearly divided into winners and losers. The software industry has the potential to show higher upside.
Examples of existing hardware companies attempting to transition to software (e.g., Tesla).

3. Big Tech Analysis: Meta, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google

Meta: Optimizing advertising revenue with AI technology and preparing for the future through Reality Labs.
Amazon: Expecting cost reduction and sales growth through internal logistics efficiency and the implementation of AWS DeepSec.
Apple: Currently experiencing sluggish performance but possesses long-term appeal due to the anticipation of an innovative "wow factor."
Google: Relatively low expectations for a new breakthrough in AI.
Microsoft: Focused on improving data center performance through its partnership with OpenAI, but concerns about reduced relative competitiveness due to the emergence of DeepSec.

4. Semiconductor and Utility Sectors: Current Status and Future Outlook

Although semiconductors and utilities have undergone adjustments, their declines have been significant, and there is a possibility of recovery.
Products or solutions reflecting cost reductions due to the influence of DeepSec are key.
Software has a greater advantage in terms of upward momentum, but rather than an immediate shift to software, a gradual switching strategy is needed.

5. Opportunities in Shipbuilding and Defense Industries

Shipbuilding: Continuous upward trend expected due to increased global ship demand amid US-China relations and international conflicts.
Defense Industry: Positive outlook as increased military investment and defense spending become trends.

6. Employment Indicators and the Fed's Policy

The key point to watch in the Fed's interest rate policy is whether they will relax their inflation target.
If employment indicators are weaker than expected, the market may perceive it as "bad is good," increasing expectations for interest rate cuts.

7. Korean Market Perspective

While the software sector is showing an upward trend, traditional semiconductor, shipbuilding, and power equipment sectors still hold their positions as leading stocks.
Naver and Kakao have rebounded with expectations for the use of AI technology, but it is recommended to approach them from a trading perspective.

< Summary >

Valuations depend on interest (popularity), and the software sector, which is gaining attention with AI technology, has an advantage.
Meta and Amazon are showing tangible results by utilizing AI for advertising and logistics optimization.
Semiconductors and utilities have the possibility of recovery after the decline, but a gradual shift to software is needed.
The shipbuilding and defense industries are promising in the long term amid US-China tensions.
The Fed's interest rate policy has the potential to increase market transparency depending on employment indicators.

[More…]

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– [모라구효] 딥시크 수혜기업 대공개! 그냥 이 5가지만 외우시면 됩니다.

AI Technology's Real-Life Applications and Investment Opportunities: Focusing on Voice AI

1. Voice AI's Penetration into Real Life and Potential Applications

Voice AI is now rapidly being applied to real life, going beyond a simple technological concept.
Representative examples include AI learning a specific voice to generate similar voices, or converting input text into natural speech.
For example, voice AI that has learned the voice of a YouTube content creator can automatically read scripts and even dub into multiple languages based on the translated content.
It can lower the barrier to global content creation by adjusting the user's lip movements to match a specific language and providing video content.

2. Big Tech's Investment in and Development of AI Voice Technology

Microsoft acquired Nuance, the company that developed Apple's voice assistant "Siri," in 2021, preparing to enter the voice AI market.
Companies like NVIDIA are investing in AI startups or expanding partnerships to add advanced technology to voice-related technologies.
Recently, Tesla announced its own AI-based vehicle assistant, Locke, leading technological advancements to allow drivers to control vehicle systems through natural conversations.

3. Real-Time Emotion Filtering Technology

Japan's SoftBank has developed a patented technology that uses voice AI to remove customers' emotions from customer service calls.
This technology is for the purpose of protecting counselors, converting customers' heightened emotions into neutral expressions to help reduce stress on counselors.

4. Combining English Learning with Voice AI: The Speak App Case

"Speak" is an English speaking learning app that utilizes AI technology, providing an environment where users can practice real-life English conversations in various situations.
Key Features:
- Enables customized conversation practice by setting specific situations such as travel, business, and daily life.
- Provides AI conversation simulations centered around practical topics such as "immigration screening."
- Allows for real-time correction of users' insufficient expressions and incorrect sentences, facilitating repeated learning.
- Applies a review function based on past learning records and a motivational system.
The AI-based learning environment encourages users to repeatedly learn many sentences consistently, helping them naturally acquire English.

The expansion and growth potential of voice AI technology lead to investment opportunities.
Leading companies in AI voice recognition and analysis software:
- Palantir, Microsoft, Adobe, OpenAI, Tesla, etc.
Related ETFs:
- IGV ETF: Investment in technology companies focused on AI software.
- QQQ ETF: Investment strategy that encompasses the entire AI field with a portfolio centered on Big Tech.

Summary

Voice AI technology, which is rapidly being applied in real life, is bringing changes in areas such as content creation, global market expansion, and customer service improvement.

Tech companies are actively investing in voice AI-related technologies and are striving to secure market dominance.

AI-based English learning apps for consumers provide a personalized conversational environment and present a new paradigm for English learning.

Investors can have opportunities to benefit from AI innovation through related tech stocks and AI-focused ETFs.

[More…]

NVIDIA's Investment Strategy Leading the AI Era
https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%97%94%EB%B9%84%EB%94%94%EC%95%84
Big Tech and AI Technology: Opportunities in the Smart Software Market
https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%86%8C%ED%94%84%ED%8A%B8%EC%9B%A8%EC%96%B4

*YouTube Source: [소수몽키]

– “AI의 본격 실생활 침투시작됐다” 새로운 시대 변화의 수혜주들

NVIDIA and Trump's Emergency Meeting: The Hidden Story of Semiconductor Regulations and China's AI Strategy

1. Key Background

It has been reported that former US President Donald Trump and NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang held an emergency meeting. The core topic of the meeting was US semiconductor export regulations and preventing China's AI technology independence. Recently, China ridiculed the US in the field of AI technology by unveiling a new generative AI called "DeepSik," which is believed to be based on NVIDIA's GPUs.

China's AI development achievements have two implications:

It developed an AI similar to ChatGPT independently using Huawei chips.
Or, it illegally purchased and smuggled NVIDIA's high-performance GPU H100.

2. US Response: DeepSik and Strengthening AI Chip Export Regulations

DeepSik symbolically shows that China is effectively neutralizing US regulations. Accordingly, Trump discussed with the NVIDIA CEO how GPUs are flowing into China and investigated the matter.

Key Discussion Topics

NVIDIA's Semiconductor Distribution Process: NVIDIA sells GPUs not only directly but also through various distribution channels (e.g., dealers, data center suppliers). It is suspected that Chinese companies are using routes through Singapore and Malaysia to purchase and smuggle products in this process.
Financial Hubs and Smuggling Issues: Singapore has weak regulations and a well-developed financial system, making it a smuggling route and replacing the role of Hong Kong in the past.

US Response Plan

The Trump administration appears to have discussed strengthening GPU export regulations and introducing a tracking system for each stage of distribution to block these distribution networks. In addition, they plan to strongly sanction AI companies linked to China if they attempt to smuggle products from abroad.

3. Potential for Tariffs and Economic Pressure

Trump used a similar approach in the trade war with China, and there is a possibility that he will use a gradual tariff increase strategy this time as well.

Imposing an initial 10% tariff, and gradually increasing it to 20% and 30% if China does not meet it.
This approach aims to induce dissatisfaction within China and secure a favorable point in negotiations.

However, tariff increases are likely to cause a risk of rising inflation within the US. In particular, the side effects of these economic policies could begin to appear in earnest after 2024.

4. NVIDIA and Global Impact

NVIDIA generates revenue across several countries and regions, including the US, China, Taiwan, and Singapore.

Distribution: US (35%), China (22%), Taiwan (24%), and Singapore (15%).
Taiwan serves as a hub for finished product manufacturing and distribution, and there is also the possibility of smuggling from there to China.

The meeting between Trump and Jensen Huang likely involved discussions on how to adjust or strengthen this complex revenue distribution and distribution structure. However, the possibility that Jensen Huang was unable to offer a clear solution cannot be ruled out.

5. Uncertainty Implied by Trump's Past Remarks

Trump's statement after the meeting, "You never know what's going to happen," has often implied negative outcomes in the past.

There were no meaningful achievements after statements with similar nuances in the 2018 North Korea-US summit, the 2019 US-China tariff conflict, and the Hong Kong Human Rights Law controversy.
This suggests that a clear conclusion was not reached in this meeting as well.

6. Future Outlook

The US is likely to strengthen semiconductor regulations and AI chip export controls against China. This will negatively affect the revenue of semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA.

In addition, if tariff increases are implemented according to Trump's policy direction, a rise in inflation and increased consumer burden are expected within the US. Overall, uncertainty is expected to continue in the market.

< Summary >

The meeting between Trump and the NVIDIA CEO was to discuss China's DeepSik AI unveiling and the GPU smuggling issue.
China is attempting to neutralize US regulations by using Huawei chips and smuggled GPUs for AI development.
The US is attempting to pressure China by strengthening AI chip export regulations and gradually increasing tariffs.
However, these policies could lead to a decrease in NVIDIA's profits and rising inflation within the US.
The outcome of Trump's meeting is uncertain, and the diversified changes in regulatory and tariff policies are expected to be the key going forward.

[More…]
"NVIDIA's AI Chip Export Regulations: US Strategy Analysis"
https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B7%9C%EC%A0%9C

"Trump's Tariff Policy and Market Reaction: Long-Term Impact?"
https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B4%80%EC%84%B8

*YouTube Source: [Jun’s economy lab]

– Why Trump and Jensen Huang met so hastily(ft.Deepseek)