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< Trump's Tariff War: Key Points and Impact Summary >

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Header 1: Key Points of President Trump's Tariff Imposition

• President Trump announced tariffs on the United States' three major trading partners (Mexico, Canada, and China) effective from 12:01 AM on February 4th.
• Tariffs of 25% will be imposed on goods from Canada and 255% on goods from Mexico. An additional 10% tariff will be added to existing tariffs on goods from China.
• However, the tariff rate for Canadian energy resources such as electricity and oil will be limited to 10%.
• The justification for imposing tariffs is the war on drugs and solving illegal immigration issues, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

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Header 2: Key Background of This Tariff Implementation

1. Justification for Protecting the US Economy and Imposing Tariffs

   • Mexico: Cited for cooperation with drug cartels and the problem of illegal drug manufacturing.
   • Canada: Mentioned for its association with the expansion of Mexican drug organizations.
   • Immigration Issues: The need for tariffs was argued based on the pretext of identifying illegal immigrants and preventing human trafficking.

2. Political and Economic Strategy

   • Tariffs are used not only as measures but also as tools for negotiation.
   • It is specified that if retaliatory tariffs from other countries are expected, the US will respond with additional tariffs.

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Header 3: Global Reactions to the Imposition of Tariffs

1. Immediate Reactions from Canada and Mexico

   • Canada: Announced a 25% retaliatory tariff on US products (beer, wine, food, etc.).
   • Mexico: Declared that it would directly target Trump's support base states through precise targeting tariff measures.

2. Reactions from Other Major Trading Nations

   • China: Has reacted quietly so far, mentioning a WTO appeal.
   • Europe: Creating tension by mentioning the possibility of additional tariffs.

3. Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Outlook

• Optimistic View: There is a possibility that tariffs could be used as a negotiating card to secure terms favorable to the United States.
• Pessimistic View: Economic and stock market shocks to neighboring countries and disruption of global supply chains.

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Header 4: Economic Impact and Stock Market Aftermath of Tariff Imposition

1. Affected Sectors (Related Industries)

   • Manufacturing: Increased costs of imported raw materials, expected cost shock.
   • Construction: Concerns over rising prices of major construction materials, such as Canadian lumber.
   • Energy: If Canadian crude oil imports decrease, refiners' refining margins will decline.
   • Semiconductors: Possibility of additional damage due to strengthened export controls to China.

2. Beneficiary Stocks (Industries with Relatively Less Impact)

   • Advertisers: Software-focused companies such as Meta, Alphabet (Google), and Spotify.
   • AI/Software Technology Stocks: Fields with little tariff impact, such as Palantir and Crowdstrike.
   • Finance and Domestic Stocks: Stable investment targets free from tariff shocks.

3. Stock Market Outlook

• High volatility is expected in the short term.
• In the mid-to-long term, stability is likely to recover after tariff adjustments.

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Header 5: Negotiation and Long-Term Outlook

1. Past Examples: Trump's Negotiation Style

   • 2018 US-China Tariff War: Used tariffs as a tool for negotiation to strengthen cooperation.
   • Colombia Case: Negotiation success in 9 hours with high tariffs and sanctions.

2. Current Negotiation Possibility

   • Although Trump has not mentioned the possibility of negotiation, he left room until the implementation on Tuesday.
   • The time allowance can be interpreted as a strategic card.

3. America First Policy

• Trump seeks to restore trade policies centered on tariffs from the 1900s.
• A major change in the global trading environment is anticipated.

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Header 6: Stock Market Investment Strategy

1. Damaged and Risk Factors

   • Sensitive Industries (Manufacturing, Energy, Semiconductors): Possibility of short-term declines.
   • Need to manage industry groups with high dependence on the global supply chain.

2. Investment Alternatives and Beneficiary Stocks

   • Software, AI-related stocks with little tariff impact (Palantir, Meta, Netflix, etc.).
   • Creating a more favorable environment for online-based products (advertising, cloud, etc.) than the real economy.
   • It is possible to use a buy-on-dips strategy, considering the annual stock market trend.

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< Summary >

President Trump announced tariffs on the United States’ three major trading partners, emphasizing the response to drugs and illegal immigrants.

Manufacturing, energy, and semiconductors are listed as damaged sectors, while advertising and software companies are listed as beneficiary sectors.

It is time to be wary of the possibility of a short-term stock market correction and to consider the opportunity to buy undervalued stocks in the mid-to-long term within the America First policy.

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[More…]

1. Trump Effect: What is the Global Impact?
2. 2024 Trade War Expected Scenarios

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