U.S. Protectionist Policies and the Impact on the Global Economy

U.S. Tariff Policies and Major Target Countries

The United States is strengthening protectionism by imposing tariffs on major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China.

China: An additional 10% tariff is imposed on the existing 25% tariff, totaling 35%.
Canada, Mexico: There were no tariffs previously, but a 25% tariff is now imposed.

These measures are based on the U.S. National Economic Emergency Powers Act. In particular, tariffs on Canada and Mexico are justified by the influx of drugs. However, in reality, it is closer to a strategy that prioritizes the economic interests of the United States.

Differences in Foreign Policy Between the Republican and Democratic Parties

Democratic Party (Biden Administration): Strengthens checks on China in cooperation with allies.
Republican Party (Trump Administration): Prioritizes national interests (America First), adjusts economic policies through tariffs.

While the Democratic Party outwardly emphasizes global alliances, the essence of "America First" is the same as the Republican Party. The Trump administration more explicitly uses tariffs and economic pressure as major weapons.

Economic Impact of Tariff Policies

1. Increased Burden on U.S. Businesses and Consumers

U.S. companies have to bear high production costs, and consumers have to pay high prices.
→ Result: Reduced real consumption, slowed economic growth

2. Changes in the World Trade Order

If the United States unilaterally imposes tariffs, other countries will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products.
→ Result: Increased global trading costs, contraction of trade

3. Difficulties in Restructuring Supply Chains

The global economy has developed based on the division of labor in supply chains for the past several decades.
Suddenly solving all production within the United States is unrealistic.
→ Result: Increased production costs for U.S. companies due to high labor costs

4. Possibility of Stagnation in U.S. Innovation

The United States has grown into the world's leading innovative country through open policies from the past.
However, if protectionist and closed policies continue, the influx of foreign talent will decrease, and technological innovation will also slow down.
→ Result: Weakening of U.S. global leadership

Long-Term Decline in U.S. Global Influence

If the United States continues its protectionist policies, other countries are likely to reduce their dependence on the United States and form their own economic blocs. For example:

Canada, Mexico, China, the EU, etc. may cooperate separately to establish a trade system that excludes the United States.
The proportion of the U.S. in the global financial market may decrease, and dependence on the dollar may decrease.

Currently, the United States still has overwhelming economic and military power, but over time, it may become isolated in the global market.

< Summary >

Due to the U.S. protectionist policies, tariffs are increasing, which is negatively impacting the global economy.

Strengthening of tariff imposition on Canada, Mexico, and China
Increased domestic production costs → rising prices → decreased consumption
Contraction of world trade → disruption of global supply chains
Weakening of U.S. innovation competitiveness → long-term decline in global influence

Ultimately, in the short term, there is a high possibility of a global economic slowdown, and in the long term, the economic leadership of the United States will weaken.

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Amazon: The Success Secrets and Investment Outlook of the World's Largest E-Commerce Company

1. Amazon's Growth Equation

Jeff Bezos's Initial Vision: "Lower the cost structure through growth and offer prices that satisfy customers."
Virtuous Cycle of Growth:
- Growth → Lower Costs → Lower Prices → Increased Customer Satisfaction → Increased Traffic → Increased Sellers → More Diverse Options → Increased Customer Satisfaction.

Key Strategies

Low-Cost Structure
Customer Lock-in Strategy
Building a platform that prevents customers from leaving once they have entered.

2. Revenue Growth and Structural Changes

<2015>

Total Revenue: $10.7 Billion
E-commerce Revenue: $7.7 Billion (72% Share)

<2023>

Total Revenue: $57 Billion (5.4x Growth)
E-commerce Revenue: $23 Billion (40% Share)

<Q4 2024 (Estimated)>

Total Revenue: $63 Billion (10% Growth Rate)

E-commerce and Third-Party

Third-Party Platform Revenue:
- 2015: $1.6 Billion → 2023: $14 Billion (9x Growth)
- Attracting sellers through platform provision and logistics support.
- Strategy to satisfy both sellers and customers.

AWS Cloud Division

2015 Revenue: $0.78 Billion → 2023: $9 Billion (12x Growth)
Expanding market share by leveraging AI innovation (AWS DeepSeek).
Major Competitors: Microsoft, Google.

Advertising and Subscription

2015: $0.44 Billion → 2023: $8.6 Billion (20x Growth).
Advertising Business:
- Advertising targeting customers with high purchase intent.
- Growing rapidly based on high ROI.
Subscription Services:
- Diversified services such as Amazon Prime and OTT.

3. Investment Points and Outlook

AWS

AI Cloud: High expectations with DeepSeek technology utilization.
Customer Composition: Many IT-centric companies, potential for continuous growth.
Maintaining High Growth Rate: 21% or more.

Advertising

Maximize Advertising Effectiveness: Advertising in locations with a high probability of purchase conversion.
50% Margin Forecast: Ensures high profitability.

Logistics

Possesses the most powerful logistics infrastructure.
Expected to be in a more monopolistic position due to regulations on Chinese competitors.
Expanding market dominance through contract renegotiation with UPS.

4. Stock Price and Market Capitalization Outlook

Current Situation

Apple ($3.5T), Microsoft ($3T), and NVIDIA ($2.9T) are in the top tier.
Amazon and Google are each at approximately $2.5 Trillion.

Outlook

Amazon: Potential to surpass $3 Trillion with profit growth and market share increase.
Growth Factors:
- AWS DeepSeek Effect.
- Increased Profitability of Advertising and Subscriptions.
- Global Logistics Monopoly.

< Summary >

Amazon has achieved significant growth in e-commerce, AWS cloud, and advertising & subscription sectors.

A 5.4-fold increase in total revenue and the expansion of AWS utilizing AI DeepSeek technology strengthens the company's future growth potential.

Based on the high ROI of advertising and logistics monopoly, it solidifies its dominance within the U.S. market, with expectations of achieving a $3 trillion market capitalization in the future.

AWS and the advertising sector are the main growth engines for Amazon, and Chinese e-commerce regulations and expansion of AI applications are acting as additional opportunities.

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