Samsung’s Semiconductor Apocalypse?

Samsung Electronics' Stock Position and Considerations

It is necessary to consider whether Samsung Electronics is currently in a declining, stable, or rising phase.
The overall stock investment strategy may vary depending on Samsung Electronics' market trends.
Recently, Samsung Electronics' stock price has repeatedly confirmed the bottom and attempted rebounds.
The company's stock price is likely to rise when the performance decline is mitigated, and this pattern has been repeated in past cycles.
The expansion of AI and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is likely to positively impact Samsung Electronics' stock price in the mid- to long-term.

Nvidia (GPU): This company has recorded significant growth due to the AI boom, but some investors are raising concerns about the possibility of a slowdown in the rate of stock price increase.
Broadcom (ASIC): Performance growth is expected, centered on ASIC solutions, and the growth slope is expected to be relatively steep.
Comparison of Nvidia and Broadcom: Nvidia already has market leadership, but Broadcom's ASIC growth potential is increasing its investment appeal.

ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) is rapidly expanding as it receives demand for customized solutions from global IT companies.
Although GPUs currently occupy a majority of the market, ASIC semiconductors are expected to expand into more specialized areas, and there is a high possibility that a balance adjustment will be made in the long term.

China is significantly expanding its independent manufacturing capabilities in the DDR4 memory semiconductor field.
Conversely, global leading semiconductor companies are focusing on DDR5 and HBM, maintaining their technological advantage.

SK Hynix currently has an advantage in the HBM market, and Samsung Electronics needs strategic improvement in this area.
HBM is required not only for GPUs but also for ASICs and other AI chips, which will enable negotiation power with various customer bases in the future.
Samsung Electronics needs to narrow the technological gap with SK Hynix through next-generation technologies such as HBM 4.

We are seeking to monetize within the subscription economy model through cooperation with global IT companies.
Ex: Samsung Electronics needs to adapt to new business models through cooperation with Google and strengthen its role as a data-based platform.

Stocks of domestic semiconductor companies, including Samsung Electronics, are becoming more stable in the short term, and the decline is likely to be limited.
Partnerships with big tech companies that invest in the global AI monetization process (e.g., ChatGPT, AI assistants, etc.) are important.
In particular, entering the high value-added market through differentiated memory semiconductor technology such as HBM will be a key task.

< Summary >

Samsung Electronics stock is currently entering a stable zone and implies the possibility of a rebound.
The GPU and ASIC markets continue to expand in line with global AI growth. Nvidia and Broadcom are emerging as major competitive companies.
HBM-related technologies and AI-based monetization models are likely to act as growth axes for domestic semiconductor companies.
Increased competition in the Chinese semiconductor market, but domestic companies still have an advantage in HBM and high-end product technology.

[More…]

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– 아직 희망이 남아 있을지도 모릅니다! 삼성전자를 기다리는 봄날ㅣ최도연 SK증권 센터장 [2부]

Key Components of AI:
1. Computing Power: Hardware capabilities based on semiconductor technology are essential.
2. Algorithm Power: Technical skills to optimize and improve software.
3. Data Power: Strengthening AI model learning by securing vast amounts of data.
China has a competitive advantage in Data Power due to data accessibility and strong government control, and is also significantly advanced in algorithm development.
China is evading strong U.S. sanctions by focusing on software through the development of AI algorithms, and is particularly well-positioned in AI performance based on its native language.
However, the systemic constraints of the Chinese government may create credibility issues in the global market, which could hinder consumer acceptance. On the other hand, this leaves open the possibility that actual AI utilization performance may be even better if government sanctions are eased or measures are relaxed.

The United States generally has clear strengths in semiconductor design and software technology, dominating over 70% of the global market with this technology and maintaining a strong hegemony.
China is promoting semiconductor supply chain construction and internalization internally, rapidly growing its foundry capabilities in its own market. In particular, the growth of SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation) is challenging existing powerhouses such as the United States and Taiwan.
Semiconductor Import Issues:
Currently, China is the world's largest semiconductor importer, importing approximately 500 trillion won worth of semiconductors annually.
This is a huge burden on the Chinese economy, and the country is promoting semiconductor independence by reducing costs and ensuring stability through localization.

U.S. Strategy:
- Technology sanctions and equipment supply restrictions.
- Strengthening cooperation with South Korea and Taiwan to block technical paths.
China's Response:
- Strengthening internalization through government investment and its own technology development.
- Focusing on narrowing the global technology gap.
Long-Term Scenario Prediction:

The outcome of the U.S.-China hegemony competition may vary depending on the economic strategies and technological convergence of the two countries.
If China compensates for its weaknesses in the AI and semiconductor war and continues to pursue, the global market landscape may be reorganized.

China has strengths in data and algorithms in AI development.
China's semiconductor ecosystem is growing through internalization and will be a key factor in the U.S.-China technology hegemony war.
The United States maintains its advantage in semiconductor manufacturing and software and sanctions China, but China is responding by expanding its budget and developing its own technology.