< Summary >

Causes and Impacts of Decreased Foreign Exchange Reserves
- The Bank of Korea’s foreign exchange reserves sharply decreased by $4.6 billion (approximately 6.7 trillion won) as of January.
- The reason is intervention in the foreign exchange market to defend against the high exchange rate (strong dollar).
- The declining trend has continued since 2020, with a faster rate of decrease compared to past financial crises and the IMF foreign exchange crisis.
- If the stability of the foreign exchange market deteriorates, there is a possibility of foreign exchange instability and capital outflow.
Background of Strong Dollar and Impact on KRW/USD Exchange Rate
- The reasons include the strength of the US economy, the possibility of a halt in interest rate cuts, and increased economic uncertainty in Korea.
- Due to the continuous strong dollar phenomenon, the value of the Korean won is falling, and upward pressure on prices continues.
- The rate of increase in import prices based on the Korean won has increased by 7%, and there is a high possibility of future consumer price increases.
Dilemma of Monetary Policy

Interest rate cuts are needed to boost domestic demand, but it is difficult to cut interest rates due to exchange rate and price burdens.
Major countries (UK, EU, Canada, etc.) are cutting interest rates, but the Bank of Korea is burdened with cutting interest rates.
Lowering interest rates may lead to further weakening of the Korean won and concerns about a decrease in foreign exchange reserves.

US Employment Indicators Announcement and Interpretation (as of February 7, 2025)
- Unemployment rate of 4.0% (lower than the expected 4.1% → signal of a strong US economy).
- Increase in non-farm payrolls of 143,000 (lower than the expected 170,000 → possibility of economic slowdown).
- Wage growth rate of 4.1% (higher than the expected 3.8% → reduces the possibility of interest rate cuts).
- Reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, high possibility of continued strong dollar.
Future Prospects and Challenges
- Need to strengthen the Bank of Korea’s foreign exchange reserve response strategy.
- Need for policy balance between price management and economic stimulus.
- Must keep in mind the possibility of increased burden on the Korean economy if the strong dollar continues.
- Need to continuously monitor the impact of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy on the financial market.

[More…]

Impact of Strong Dollar and Korean Economy → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B0%95%EB%8B%AC%EB%9F%AC
Prospects for the Bank of Korea’s Interest Rate Policy → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B8%88%EB%A6%AC

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

– [LIVE] (1)외환보유액 급감한 배경과 영향 / (2)미국 고용지표(실업률) 심층분석 [즉시분석]

U.S. Stock Market Analysis: Earnings Announcements and Stock Price Fluctuations

1. Key Trends in the U.S. Stock Market

The U.S. stock market closed mixed amidst corporate earnings announcements and easing concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.
Semiconductor and Big Tech companies’ earnings drove stock price volatility, and the trends of AI and cloud-related companies significantly impacted the market.

2. Semiconductor and Tech Companies’ Earnings and Stock Price Fluctuations

◼ Qualcomm

Despite exceeding market expectations for Q4 earnings, the stock fell by over 3% due to lower-than-expected licensing revenue growth forecasts.

◼ AMD

After announcing better-than-expected earnings, the stock fell by over 3% due to profit-taking.
Uncertainty in the market increased due to the withholding of artificial intelligence (AI) related revenue guidance.

◼ Nvidia and Broadcom

Nvidia’s stock price rose following Google’s announcement of increasing its AI-related investment budget to $75 billion this year.
Nvidia has been on a continuous rise for the past three days, reaching $128.
Broadcom is also expected to be positively affected as Big Tech companies develop their own AI chips.

3. Big Tech Companies’ Earnings and Market Reactions

◼ Amazon

Q4 Earnings:
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.86
- Revenue: $177.99 billion (higher than market expectations)
However, the stock fell by over 3% after the earnings announcement, as future revenue growth guidance fell short of market expectations.
Cloud service (AWS) revenue increased by 19%, recording $28.88 billion.
The growth rate of AWS increased from 13% to 19%, which is evaluated as a positive factor for the cloud sector’s growth.

◼ Tesla

Fell by over 1%, dropping to $374.
Main reasons: Decrease in new car sales and market share.
- 2023 California electric vehicle market share: 60% → 52.5% (-7%)
- Decline in sales in Germany and the United States
Musk’s political actions are affecting Tesla’s brand image.
Future robo-taxi and AI themes are expected to be major variables determining Tesla’s stock price movement.

4. Palantir Soars

After the earnings announcement, the stock surged by about 10%, surpassing $111 and maintaining above $100.
Q4 Earnings:
- Revenue: Increased by 36% year-over-year ($75.1 billion)
Increased defense and government contracts utilizing AI/data analysis technology.
Wall Street investment banks have raised target stock prices (BofA: $125, Wedbush: $120).
Maintaining a positive outlook in conjunction with Musk-led government innovation trends.
Short-term correction potential exists due to overbought indicators (RSI 80).

5. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market

Bitcoin volatility expands, falling below $100,000.
Reasons for volatility: Short-term correction period and weakening trust as “digital gold.”
Mentioned possibility of the Trump administration adopting Bitcoin as a national asset.
Having established itself as an institutional asset after the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, there is potential for long-term rise.

6. Other Major Companies’ Earnings Announcements and Stock Price Reactions

◼ Rising Stocks

Altus Power: Soared 27% on news of the acquisition of TPG’s business division.
Life Ro: Rose over 10% after announcing favorable earnings.
Peloton: Rose over 12% after announcing better-than-expected earnings.

◼ Falling Stocks

Ford: Fell 7% after announcing 2025 guidance.
Honeywell: Fell over 6% after announcing company split.
Skyworks: Plunged 25% after announcing CEO resignation.
Roblox: Plunged 11% due to underperforming earnings expectations.

< Summary >

U.S. stock market closed mixed amidst corporate earnings announcements and easing concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.
Qualcomm and AMD fell despite strong earnings, while Nvidia, Broadcom, and Palantir showed strength.
Amazon’s Q4 earnings exceeded market expectations but fell due to poor guidance.
Tesla maintains a downtrend due to declining new car sales and political risks.
Bitcoin is adjusting below $100,000, with potential for institutional entry in the long term.
Altus Power and Life Ro soared, while Skyworks, Ford, and Roblox plunged.

[More…]

U.S. Stock Market Outlook and Investment Strategies → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%AF%B8%EA%B5%AD%EC%A3%BC%EC%8B%9D
AI-related Investment and Big Tech Earnings Analysis → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=AI

*YouTube Source: [미국주식하는인갠]

– 테슬라 주가 충격! 엔비디아, 팔란티어 진짜 상승한 이유는?

Okay, here’s the English translation of the provided Korean text, with the specified changes:

Trump and Elon Musk’s Relationship: Potential Conflicts and Doge Activities

1. The Mutual Relationship Between Trump and Musk

– A Relationship Drawn Together by Mutual Need

Both Trump and Elon Musk are figures with strong leadership and capricious tendencies.
Musk has expressed certain patronage and support for Trump in the past, and Trump has discussed policy easing and support to help Musk’s businesses, such as Tesla and SpaceX, grow.

– Business Interests

Trump made regulatory easing one of his key pledges in his presidential campaign.
In particular, he promised to ease regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry and give greater freedom in the financial system, which could affect cryptocurrencies like Doge.
Musk has publicly mentioned Dogecoin several times, leading to a surge in the cryptocurrency’s value, which has led people to positively interpret Trump’s regulatory easing direction.

2. Potential for Cooperation Following Easing of Doge (DOGE) and Cryptocurrency Regulations

– Temporal Operational Nature of Dogecoin

Doge’s activities are scheduled to operate on a temporary basis until the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States (July 4, 2026).
If Trump returns to the presidency during this period, there is a high probability that cryptocurrency regulation easing measures will be implemented.
From Musk’s perspective, cooperating with Trump could be beneficial as it provides an opportunity for Doge and related businesses to grow stably.

– Continued Cooperation Depending on Trump’s Chances of Winning

If Trump is elected, he is likely to shift policies toward easing cryptocurrency regulations, which could lead to positive results in conjunction with Musk’s business.
However, if Trump loses the election or regulatory easing becomes difficult due to opposition from anti-cryptocurrency figures within the administration, the relationship with Musk could deteriorate.

3. Potential Conflicts Between Trump and Musk

– Low Probability of Conflict in the Short Term

Currently, there is a strong reason for Trump to cooperate with Musk, centered on Dogecoin activation and regulatory easing.
Therefore, in the short term, the possibility of Trump attacking or conflicting with Musk is low.
Rather, at this point, Trump’s policies seem likely to have a positive impact on Musk’s business.

– Potential for Long-Term Conflict Exists

Given that both are capricious and have strong personalities, there is a possibility that their interests may become entangled over time.
Trump may be dissatisfied if Musk does not express his support more clearly, and
Musk may show a tendency to check Trump if he becomes too involved in political issues.

Additionally, if Trump shifts to a negative stance on cryptocurrencies due to the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and changing regulatory policies, the possibility of conflict with Musk’s business increases.

4. Conclusion and Outlook

– Maintaining Close Cooperation So Far

There are currently no clear conflicting factors between Trump and Musk; rather, they share common interests such as easing cryptocurrency regulations.
In particular, Doge coin-related policies are likely to be positive factors for both Musk’s business and Trump’s campaign strategy.

– Possibility of Future Conflicts

However, if the policy direction changes after Trump is elected or if Musk withdraws his support for Trump, conflicts may arise.
Also, Trump may make capricious decisions for political gain, and Musk will try to protect his independence, so
It is uncertain whether long-term cooperation will continue.

< Summary >

Trump and Musk are currently cooperating under the common goal of easing cryptocurrency regulations.
Doge Coin will operate temporarily until the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States (July 4, 2026), and if Trump is re-elected, it could have a positive impact on the Doge and cryptocurrency market.
There are no major conflicting factors in the short term, but the relationship may not last indefinitely due to long-term policy changes or the possibility of mutual conflict.

[More…]

Trump and Cryptocurrency Regulatory Easing Policy
🔗 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%8A%B8%EB%9F%BC%ED%94%84

A Summary of Elon Musk’s Comments on Dogecoin
🔗 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%A8%B8%EC%8A%A4%ED%81%AC

*YouTube Source: [Jun’s economy lab]

– 트럼프와 일론 머스크 갈등??

Korean Real Estate Market Crisis and Commercial Real Estate Problems

1. Real Estate Market Status

– Apartment Market Crisis

The Korean real estate market is declining rapidly.
In particular, the severe decline in the real estate market is becoming a reality, with apartments in the Seoul metropolitan area, which were traded at ₩1.245 billion in 2021, now halved to ₩595 million.
The market slump continues as transaction volumes decrease and buyers psychologically leave the market.

– Government Policy and Interest Rate Impact

In the past, government policies had a significant impact on the real estate market, but they are not effective now.
As interest rates rise, mortgage interest increases, preventing actual demanders from actively buying homes, leading to a transaction cliff phenomenon.

2. Office and Commercial Real Estate Crisis

– Office Market Instability

Although the office markets in Gangnam, Yeouido, and other major areas appear stable, a practical oversupply is beginning, which could burst by the end of this year or next year.
In particular, the increased new supply in Yeouido and Gangnam areas is likely to cause vacancy problems in the existing office rental market.

– Increased Vacancy in Commercial Real Estate

Commercial districts are already severely affected.
Existing tenants are leaving due to the economic difficulties of the self-employed, and new rental demand is also decreasing.
As a result, the vacancy rate of commercial real estate is increasing, which is likely to lead to a major crisis in the long term.

3. Auction Market Surge

– Increase in Real Estate Seizures and Auctions

Currently, the real estate auction market is also rapidly increasing.
The number of auction cases exceeded 130,000 last year and is likely to exceed 140,000 this year.
This is reaching the level of the global financial crisis and is expected to be directly linked to the collapse of the housing market.

– Cases of Damage from ‘YGG’ (Investing with Borrowed Money) and Gap Investments

As the real estate market plummets, investors who entered the market excessively through gap investments in the past are suffering significant losses.
In particular, investors who purchased commercial real estate with housing as collateral are unable to repay their loans, leading to situations where their homes are also being auctioned off.

4. Similarities Between the Global Real Estate Crisis and Korea

– Comparison with the United States, China, and Japan

The United States is also experiencing a real estate market crisis.
In particular, the commercial real estate market is severely affected, and warning signs are being detected as local banks become insolvent.
In China, the Hengda crisis has caused a real estate crisis of $13 trillion, and Japan has not recovered for 30 years after the real estate decline.
There are concerns that Korea may follow a similar path to Japan.

– Vicious Cycle of Population Decline and the Real Estate Market

Korea is experiencing an oversupply of housing as the population declines.
Coupled with the slowdown in economic growth, real estate demand is decreasing, which is likely to lead to a long-term decline.

5. Conclusion

The Korean real estate market appears to have entered a structural downturn rather than a simple adjustment period.
In particular, serious problems are likely to occur in the commercial real estate market and the office market, which could expand into loan defaults and financial sector risks.
Government response and long-term market structure reforms are needed for this.

< Summary >

Apartment prices plummet to half the level of 2021
Transaction volume decreases due to government policy and interest rate hikes
Further decline is possible due to increased vacancy rates in the office market and commercial real estate
The real estate crisis deepens as the auction market surges
Possibility of real estate problems similar to those in the United States, China, and Japan
Entry into a long-term real estate downturn due to population decline and economic slowdown

[More…]

📌 Korean Real Estate Market Outlook 2024 → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%B6%80%EB%8F%99%EC%82%B0
📌 Analysis of Office and Commercial Real Estate Crisis → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%83%81%EC%97%85%EC%9A%A9

*YouTube Source: [머니인사이드]

– “현금 없으면 못 버틴다” 심각해진 한국 부동산 분위기 I 집값이 알고싶다🏠 (곽수종, 표영호, 한문도)

Loneliness in Young Men and the Incel Culture on the Internet: Problems and Solutions

1. The Emergence and Problems of the Incel Community

Incel (Involuntary Celibate) refers to men who want to have romantic or sexual relationships but cannot, and communities are forming online.
Some of these individuals hold extreme misogynistic views, become radicalized online, and fall into violent ideologies.

1-1. The Dangers of Extreme Incels

The British and American governments believe that men with extreme incel ideologies are likely to be classified as terrorism risks.
In 2023, reports of men showing extremist tendencies to the UK’s Prevent program surged.
In some incel communities, an aggressive mindset towards women and society is spreading, and some are actually committing violent crimes.

1-2. Psychological Characteristics of Incel Communities

Research shows that the mental health of incels is worse than that of typical young men, and many experience severe depression and suicidal thoughts.
20% of the incel respondents who participated in the study said they “contemplated suicide every day for the past two weeks.”
They are mainly lower-middle-class white young men, and most are unmarried and childless.

2. The Influence of Anti-Feminist Influencers Targeting Men on the Internet

Incel communities are being further radicalized by certain influencers.
These influencers spread misogynistic messages while selling ‘methods’ to achieve financial and personal success.

2-1. Messages from Key Influencers

Figures like Andrew Tate argue that “a man’s value is determined by his success,” setting the standards of success as “wealth, muscle, fame,” etc.
Members of the incel community are drawn to these messages, often agreeing with the logic that “to date women, you must first become rich and attractive.”

2-2. False Success Myths and Their Impact

The false logic that “you must have the best conditions to be loved by women” is rampant in the incel community.
The psychology of labeling those who have not succeeded in capitalist society as ‘losers’ is at play, leading to extreme thinking.
As extreme self-improvement ideologies spread, essential problems (social structural problems, wealth inequality, etc.) are often overlooked.

3. Alternatives to the Incel Problem: Building a New Masculinity and Restoring Community

The way to counter the misogynistic thinking and extremist attitudes spreading in incel communities is not just simple criticism, but to present more positive alternatives.

3-1. Redefining Healthy Masculinity

There is a need to change the definition of existing masculine ideals (success, charisma, power).
Even when emphasizing ‘self-improvement,’ it needs to be done in a way that promotes cooperation and growth, rather than trampling on others.
It is important to promote that emotional communication skills and community building are as important as physical and economic success.

3-2. Addressing the Root Causes of the Incel Problem

Resolving economic inequality: The economic situation, where it is difficult to afford dating costs, is fueling the dissatisfaction of young men.
Restoring community: As individualism intensifies in modern society, young men who lack bonds with others feel lonely.
Addressing mental health issues: Active counseling and support services are needed for the mental difficulties (depression, suicidal thoughts, etc.) experienced by members of the incel community.

3-3. Promoting Positive Role Models

Rather than criticizing anti-feminist influencers, a strategy is needed to highlight positive role models that demonstrate healthy masculinity.
By promoting examples of men who achieve romance and social success in a collaborative and respectful manner, an alternative that can appeal to the incel community can be presented.
Spread the message that “success does not necessarily come only through competition and conquering women.”

Lonely young men on the Internet are targeted by anti-feminist influencers, and misogynistic thinking and radicalization are taking place in incel communities.
Their mental health is severely poor, and some are likely to develop into violent extremism.
On the other hand, it is necessary to solve this problem not through simple criticism, but through a new masculinity and community recovery.
Approaches such as resolving economic inequality, promoting positive role models, and supporting mental health are needed.

[More…]

Redefining Masculinity: What is a Healthy Man in Modern Society?
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=masculinity
How Can We Solve the Loneliness of Young People?
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=loneliness

*YouTube Source: [Novara Media]

– How Can The Left Help Young Men?

2024 Q4 US Transportation Market Analysis: US Bank Freight Payment Index Key Insights

US Transportation Industry Status: Key Trends in Q4 2024

1. Decline in Shipments and Manufacturing Downturn

US transportation market shipments decreased by 4.7% QoQ and 15.9% YoY in Q4 2024.
This marks the tenth consecutive quarter of decline, reflecting a continued slowdown in the transportation market.
The main reasons are sluggish manufacturing production and decreased logistics demand.

2. Freight Rates Increase in Some Regions

Transportation costs increased in some regions, leading to increased transportation spending (Spend).
Signs of rising transportation demand were captured, especially in specific markets.
Accordingly, new data considering freight rates was added to the US Bank Freight Payment Index.

Analysis and Expert Opinions

1. Collaboration between US Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics

US Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics collaborate to provide more precise freight rate data.
By combining existing shipment and transportation spending data with DAT’s market analysis information, more accurate market movement predictions are possible.

2. Importance of Utilizing Supply Chain Data

Data-driven decision-making is essential rather than simple intuition in supply chain operations.
Traditionally, supply chain operations have relied on experience and intuition, but failure to utilize advanced data analytics can lead to falling behind in market competition.

3. Supply Chain Disruptions and Future Outlook

The weakness in the transportation market is a phenomenon that occurs during market normalization as the post-COVID-19 demand peak passes.
A more balanced market recovery is expected in 2025, with the possibility of some manufacturing sectors becoming active again.
Logistics technology and digital data utilization are establishing themselves as key factors in strengthening supply chain management.

< Summary >

In Q4 2024, the US transportation market saw a 4.7% decrease in shipments and a partial increase in transportation spending.
The manufacturing slowdown is a major factor, reflecting the overall market decline.
New freight rate data is included through collaboration between US Bank and DAT Freight & Analytics.
Data-driven decision-making is becoming increasingly important in supply chain operations, and logistics optimization is becoming a key challenge.

[More…]

Related Latest Blog Posts:

US Logistics Market Outlook 2025 → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EB%AC%BC%EB%A5%98
Data-Driven Supply Chain Management Strategy → https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EA%B3%B5%EA%B8%89%EB%A7%9D

*YouTube Source: [Supply Chain Now]

– Analysis of the U.S. Bank 2024 Q4 Freight Payment Index

Tesla Stock Decline and Ford’s Autonomous Driving Technology

Tesla Stock Trends

Tesla’s stock price has been continuously declining recently, with:
- A 1.02% decrease (as of today)
- Consecutive declines of -5%, -3%, -1.6% recently
- Volatility over one week: -6.49%
- Volatility over one month: -8.94%
- Rise over six months: 86.56%
- Volatility since January 1, 2025: -7.31%
It is currently in an adjustment phase after a recent surge, with investors seemingly regretting missing the selling opportunity.
A long-term investment strategy remains valid, and short-term stock price predictions are not easy.

Ford’s Q4 Performance and Electric Vehicle Business

Ford reported better-than-expected results in its Q4 earnings announcement.
- Both EPS & Revenue exceeded Wall Street’s expectations.
- The performance of the internal combustion engine business (Ford Blue) and the commercial vehicle division (Ford Pro) was strong.
However, Ford’s electric vehicle division recorded a significant loss.
- Q4 EV Margin: -98.1%
- Annual loss in the EV division for 2024: -131.8%
- Approximately $48,000 loss per electric vehicle
Losses are projected to continue in 2025, requiring a solution.

Ford’s Autonomous Driving Technology and Partnership Considerations

Ford is developing the autonomous driving system “BlueCruise.”
- Currently at Level 2 with limited functionality (operates only on specific roads).
- Usage fees apply ($65 per month, $650 per year).
- Unfavorable conditions compared to Tesla’s Autopilot (free).
Ford is considering the introduction of Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving technology, examining both in-house development vs. partnerships.
Official statement from Ford CEO:
Mentioned the possibility of adopting technology from other companies rather than developing it in-house.
Currently reviewing optimal partners, employing a realistic approach considering market conditions.

Ford’s Autonomous Driving Partner Candidates

Waymo
- Possesses LiDAR-based autonomous driving technology.
- However, vehicle prices exceeding $100,000 present a realistic limitation.
Tesla (Tesla FSD License)
- High potential for expansion with a non-LiDAR system.
- Ford has already adopted Tesla’s NACS charging standard.
- Adopting the FSD license could reduce costs and increase technology adoption possibilities.

Tesla’s FSD License Strategy

Elon Musk has stated that FSD licenses will only be provided to companies capable of mass production.
Full-scale license sales are likely to begin between the second half (June-December) of 2025.
After the launch of Tesla’s robotaxi around June 2025, the need for FSD in the automotive industry is expected to increase.

Conclusion

Ford is developing autonomous driving technology internally but is seeking partnerships to introduce Level 4 or higher technology.
It appears a partner will be determined between Waymo and Tesla, and considering cost and scalability, Tesla FSD is more likely.
After the launch of Tesla’s robotaxi in 2025, the possibility of expanding FSD license offerings is high.
The decision on Ford’s adoption of FSD in the second half of 2025 is expected to be a major issue.

< Summary >

Tesla’s stock price is showing a downward trend with increasing volatility.
Ford reported better-than-expected results in Q4, but experienced significant losses in the electric vehicle division.
Ford is considering partnerships to introduce Level 3-4 autonomous driving technology.
A decision between Waymo vs. Tesla FSD license is pending.
Tesla’s FSD license expansion is likely to begin in the second half of 2025.
The final decision by Ford could change the direction of the electric vehicle and autonomous driving markets.

[More…]

Tesla FSD License Outlook: https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=FSD
Analysis of Ford’s Electric Vehicle Business Crisis: https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%ED%8F%AC%EB%93%9C

*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]

– 테슬라 첫 FSD 라이센스, 포드와 계약하나? 포드 CEO FSD 결정이 임박했다! 테슬라 FSD 를 선택할수 밖에 없는 이유? 정확한 발표일자는 언제일까?

2024 KOSPI Outlook and Stock Investment Strategy

Pattern Analysis in KOSPI P/R Less Than 9x

When the KOSPI P/R falls below 9x, it has not lasted for more than an average of 4 months.
The longest period was in 2018 (8 months).
Recently, it has moved out after staying for about 4 months.

Investment Appeal of the Korean Market

From a global investor’s perspective, Korean stocks are undervalued.
There is a possibility of inflows of foreign investment funds due to economic recovery and interest rate cuts.

Correlation with the U.S. Market

Easing dollar strength possible with U.S. economic slowdown and interest rate cuts.
If the dollar turns weak, global funds are likely to flow into emerging markets (including Korea).

Stock Market Supply and Demand Trends

Need for recovery of net purchases by foreign investors.
Increasing preference for overseas stocks among domestic investors.
Opportunities may arise after adjusting the supply and demand imbalance in the domestic stock market.

Outlook for AI and Big Tech Companies

Market changes due to the emergence of DeepSeek AI technology.
Transition from GPU-centric AI to AI optimized for specific fields (expert systems).
Increased efficiency of AI models and increased AI utilization by companies due to cost reduction effects.

Potential slowdown in the growth rate of companies highly dependent on existing GPUs (e.g., NVIDIA).
AI service and software companies are more promising than AI infrastructure.
Companies with devices (smartphones, tablets, etc.) and software platforms are strong.

Leading Industries in the Korean Stock Market

Shipbuilding: China’s supply problems, increased global demand for LNG carriers
Defense: Increased global defense industry investment, expected pressure on defense budgets if Trump is elected
Power Infrastructure: Increased power usage for AI and semiconductor factories
Bio: Growth of biosimilars, new drug development, and CDMO (contract manufacturing) companies
AI Software: Cost reduction effect, spread of cloud-based AI technology
Entertainment: Concerts, album sales, expansion of global fandom

Investment Strategy Advice

U.S. Market Investment
- Long-term investment focused on AI and big tech
- Consider index investment such as S&P 500 ETF to respond to volatility
Domestic Market Investment
- Individual stock plays rather than the index (focus on software, bio, AI services)
- Trading strategies using short-term volatility
- Continued interest in the defense, shipbuilding, and power infrastructure sectors

< Summary >

KOSPI P/R below 9x rebounded after staying for 4-8 months in the past
Korean stock market is recognized as an undervalued market for global investors
Inflows of foreign funds are possible when the U.S. economy slows and interest rates are cut
Paradigm shift in the AI market due to the emergence of the DeepSeek AI model
Software and device-related stocks are more promising than AI infrastructure companies
In the domestic market, shipbuilding, defense, power infrastructure, bio, and entertainment industries are expected to be strong
Stable S&P 500 index investment in the U.S., strategic approach by stock is necessary in Korea

[More…]

1. Korean Stock Market Outlook (Second Half of 2024 Analysis)
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%BD%94%EC%8A%A4%ED%94%BC

2. AI and Global Market Changes (Deep Learning and AI Investment Strategies)
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=AI

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

– 외국인 투자자 입장에서 전혀 매력이 없는 국장, 이대로 국장은 저무는 것일까ㅣ김태홍 그로쓰힐자산운용 대표 [2부]

U.S. Monthly M2 Growth Rate and Its Impact

1. M2 Growth Rate Increase and Market Liquidity

In the U.S., the M2 growth rate is announced at the end of each month, which is a key economic indicator representing the amount of money circulating in the market.
The M2 growth rate recorded negative figures in 2022 and 2023, indicating a strong tightening stance, but has been rising rapidly recently.
It is increasing at the fastest rate in the past two years, which entails risks of economic stimulus and rising inflation.

2. Expectations for Trump’s Deregulation and Economic Impact

If former President Trump is re-elected, widespread financial deregulation is expected.
The anticipated policies are expected to promote corporate investment expansion and liquidity supply in the financial market.
The key point is that Trump has directly mentioned that the Treasury Department can ease regulations regardless of the Fed’s interest rate freeze.

3. Financial Market Reaction and Asset Price Increases

3-1. Strength of Inflation Hedge Assets

Prices of traditional inflation hedge assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin are rising.
Gold and silver are breaking new highs and showing continued strength.
Cryptocurrency-related ETFs are also on the rise after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

3-2. Strength of ETFs and Individual Stocks

Gold and silver-related ETFs and gold mining company stocks are rising.
AI and fintech companies, blockchain ETFs, and defense ETFs are showing strength.
In particular, fintech companies are accelerating their preparations for listing, reflecting expectations for deregulation.

4. Increase in New IPOs and Nasdaq CEO Outlook

According to the Nasdaq CEO, the number of companies waiting for IPOs is rapidly increasing, with more than 170 new listings expected by 2025.
In particular, IPO market activation is expected, centered on fintech, AI semiconductor, and big tech partners.
This means that the market is reflecting long-term expectations for the growth of financial and technology stocks.

5. Strength of Financial Stocks and Investment Opportunities

Financial deregulation is expected to improve the performance of lending-related companies.
Typically, financial stocks such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo are showing good performance.
Financial-related companies such as BlackRock and Robinhood are also expected to benefit.

6. Trade War and Relative Stability of Financial Stocks

As the Trump-led trade war intensifies, specific industries such as manufacturing and semiconductors are expected to be hit hard.
In comparison, financial stocks are attracting attention as relatively safe investments because they are not directly affected by tariffs.
Financial ETFs (such as XLF) are also expected to rise.

7. Future Market Volatility and Investment Strategies

High volatility is expected until mid-February to March.
Attention should be paid to trade wars, interest rate policies, and deregulation trends.
It is necessary to establish investment strategies through analysis of financial and fintech-related ETFs and individual companies.

< Summary >

Signals of a shift from tightening to easing are being detected as the U.S. M2 growth rate rises rapidly.
Expectations for Trump’s deregulation are increasing liquidity in the financial market.
Inflation hedge assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and financial stocks are showing strength.
The increase in new Nasdaq IPOs and the strength of financial stocks are combined, leading to a favorable outlook for the stock market.
Although short-term volatility is high due to the ongoing trade war, financial stocks are attracting attention as safe investments.
Attention is needed for fintech, blockchain companies, and financial stock ETFs.