Can SK Hynix Catch Up with Samsung Electronics? Changes in the Semiconductor Market

Comparison of Market Capitalization between SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics

SK Hynix's market cap has risen to half the level of Samsung Electronics.
There is discussion in the semiconductor industry that the industry rankings could change within 1-2 years.
At the inflection point where the second-place company catches up with the first, there is enormous upside potential.
Similar trend expected when Apple overtook Nokia and Motorola to become No. 1.
In the past, Intel had a market cap 20 times larger than NVIDIA, but now it is reversed to about 1/12th.

Semiconductor Market Status and Outlook

1. Semiconductor Stock Trends

It is currently the time to actively invest in semiconductor stocks.
High probability of rising until March-April or the first half of the year.
The second half is uncertain, but there is an investment opportunity in the first half.

2. Strengths of SK Hynix

Leading HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) supply.
Explosive increase in HBM demand with the expansion of the AI market.
Among HBM-related companies, Hynix's technology is in a super-gap situation.
More than 1 year technical difference compared to Samsung Electronics and Micron.
Hynix's HBM 3.5x expansion plan (currently 100,000 sheets per month, target of 170,000 sheets this year).
Major customers: NVIDIA, Broadcom, Marvel, AWS, OpenAI, etc.

Continuous increase in semiconductor demand due to AI development.
Increased need for high-performance semiconductors, including HBM.
Key related companies: SK Hynix, TSMC, NVIDIA, Broadcom, ARM, Qualcomm.

4. Problems of Samsung Electronics

Behind SK Hynix and Micron in HBM technology.
Samsung Electronics' HBM3 mass production failure, and the original DRAM development schedule is also delayed.
Competitiveness weakening in the semiconductor market.
The outcome of the foundry (semiconductor consignment production) market is important.
Samsung Electronics' non-semiconductor businesses (smartphones, home appliances, etc.) are not receiving much attention in the market.

US Semiconductor Market and the Impact of the Trump Administration

1. Trump Administration's AI and Semiconductor Policies

Announced the 'Stargate Project' to build AI infrastructure.
Total investment plan of $500 billion (allocated $100 billion annually).
Major semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC, and SK Hynix are expected to benefit.
Goal of strengthening US semiconductor self-sufficiency and AI leadership.

2. Cooperation between OpenAI and the Trump Government

OpenAI plays a leading role in the Stargate project.
Potential changes in the relationship between Microsoft (MS) and OpenAI.
OpenAI is establishing itself as a key AI company, increasing its investment value.

3. Competition between Elon Musk vs OpenAI

Elon Musk criticizes OpenAI, and competition is expected to intensify.
Need to observe the impact of Tesla's AI and self-driving technology development on the semiconductor market.

< Summary >

SK Hynix's market cap has risen to half the level of Samsung Electronics, and the gap is likely to narrow within 1-2 years.
HBM demand is explosively increasing in the semiconductor market, and SK Hynix is playing a leading role.
Samsung Electronics is lagging behind Hynix and Micron in HBM technology, raising concerns about reduced competitiveness.
Growth of related companies is expected due to the Trump administration's semiconductor and AI industry promotion policy (Stargate Project).
OpenAI is emerging as a key company in the Trump government's AI policy, and the relationship with MS may change.
Major semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, TSMC, SK Hynix, and ARM are expected to benefit from increased AI and semiconductor investment.

[More…]

"SK Hynix HBM Market Share and Outlook"
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=HBM
"Analysis of the Causes of Samsung Electronics' Semiconductor Competitiveness Weakness"
👉 https://nextgeninsight.net/?s=%EC%82%BC%EC%84%B1%EC%A0%84%EC%9E%90

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

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Bitcoin 1 Billion KRW Outlook and Cycle Analysis

Rationale for Bitcoin's 1 Billion KRW Outlook

The claim that Bitcoin could reach 1 billion KRW is not just a prediction but a scenario derived from various economic and technological factors. The main reasons supporting this are as follows:

1. Limited Supply of Bitcoin

The total issuance of Bitcoin is limited to 21 million.
Unlike existing currencies, additional supply is not possible, increasing scarcity over time.
Scarcity is a fundamental factor driving price increases.

2. Increasing Demand for Bitcoin

Demand for Bitcoin has been consistently increasing since its emergence in 2008.
The influx of institutional investors highlights its value as an asset in traditional financial markets.
Institutional demand is rapidly increasing due to the introduction of ETFs starting in 2023.
Official interest from political circles, including former US President Trump, is recognizing it as a strategic asset.

Controversy Over the Use Value of Bitcoin

Bitcoin initially served as a P2P payment system but is now mainly used as a digital asset and store of value.
Some argue that Bitcoin inherently has low 'use value,' potentially leading to a value of 0 KRW.
However, this should be interpreted in the same way as gold. Scarce assets like gold maintain their prices by being recognized for their specific economic value.
Similarly, currency is valued through social consensus. Therefore, as long as demand exists, the likelihood of Bitcoin's price reaching 0 is low.

Bitcoin Price Cycle

Bitcoin repeats price fluctuations in a regular cycle. This fluctuation cycle is called the "Halving Cycle."

1. What is Halving?

Bitcoin undergoes a halving event approximately every 4 years, where mining rewards are halved.
The reduced supply of new Bitcoins naturally creates upward pressure on prices.
Bitcoin's market price has repeatedly surged through three past halving events.

2. Price Increase Patterns After Past Halvings

After the 2012 Halving: $12 → $1,200 (100x increase)
After the 2016 Halving: $600 → $20,000 (approximately 30x increase)
After the 2020 Halving: $9,000 → $65,000 (approximately 7x increase)
Although the rate of increase gradually decreases, it still records a significant rise.

3. 2024 Halving and Future Outlook

At the time of the April 2024 halving, the Bitcoin price was approximately $65,000 (approximately 95 million KRW).
Based on past prices after halving, there is a high probability of increasing at least 2 to 5 times within the next 1 to 1.5 years.
This is equivalent to a minimum of 190 million KRW to a maximum of 475 million KRW.
If additional increases occur depending on market conditions, predictions suggest that breaking through 1 billion KRW may be possible after the next two cycles.

Macroeconomic and Liquidity Impact

In addition to halving, the overall financial market environment significantly impacts the price of Bitcoin.

1. Relationship Between Interest Rates and Liquidity

The bull markets of 2012 and 2020 were coupled with low-interest rates and quantitative easing policies.
In 2016, it still recorded an increase despite a period of interest rate hikes.
Currently, in 2024, interest rate cuts are expected, which could create a favorable environment for Bitcoin price increases due to increased liquidity.

2. Expansion of ETFs and Institutional Investors

Since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in 2023, institutional investors have been actively entering the market.
The influx of large-scale funds from institutional investors is expected to increase the stability of Bitcoin and drive price increases.

3. Policy and Regulatory Changes

The movement to recognize Bitcoin as an official asset is growing in the United States and major countries.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin is likely to be further utilized within the institutional framework.

Precautions When Investing in Bitcoin

It is important to understand the cycle and invest accordingly.
A cautious approach is necessary as there may be short-term price adjustments.
Macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and ETF trends should be comprehensively considered.
It is important to approach it from a long-term perspective as bear markets often follow bull markets.

< Summary >

Bitcoin has a limited supply (limited to 21 million), and scarcity increases over time, making price increases highly probable.
Demand is continuously increasing, with many positive factors such as the introduction of ETFs, expansion of institutional investment, and political attention.
Bitcoin's halving (4-year cycle) event acts as a major catalyst for price increases.
Based on the rate of increase after past halvings, there is a high probability of increasing at least 2 to 5 times by 2025.
In the long term, there is the possibility of breaking through 1 billion KRW after two cycles.
Interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion can further promote Bitcoin price increases.
Thorough risk management is essential when investing due to high short-term volatility.