● Tesla: $200 or $800 Cliffhanger
Tesla Stock Outlook and Key Changes in the Global Economy
This section thoroughly examines why Tesla's stock price is lower than expected, analyzes the value of each business segment (automotive and energy), discusses electric vehicle sales trends, concerns about the commoditization of FSD and autonomous driving software, and the impact of China's deflationary pressures on the global economy. It details how Tesla's $500 stock price target was structured, actual sales changes, the effects of the upcoming new Model Y release, and perspectives on the FSD controversy and AI technology competition, all in chronological order.
Past Predictions and Business Segment Value Analysis (Morgan Stanley Report)
Morgan Stanley report suggested a Tesla stock price target of $500.
The company estimated the value of each business segment, including automotive, energy, and software (FSD and robo-taxis).
Automotive sector valuation: approximately $150.
Energy sector valuation: expectations of high growth, around $60.
Software and future robo-taxi value: an additional expectation of about $300.
These combined values led to the projection that a $500 valuation could be reached.
Electric Vehicle Sales Trends and 2030 Outlook
2020 Tesla electric vehicle sales: recorded approximately 500,000 units.
2023 sales surged from 500,000 to 1.8 million units in three years.
A projection of 9 million units by 2030 has been questioned for its feasibility.
Sales could stagnate around 1.8 to 2 million units in 2024 and 2025.
Given that the Model Y accounts for 60-70% of total sales, attention needs to be paid to sales recovery after the release of the new model.
FSD and Concerns About Software Commoditization and China’s Deflationary Pressures
Recent discussions about offering FSD for free have raised concerns about intensifying price competition in the software sector.
Just as Chinese manufacturing exerts strong deflationary pressure on hardware, the same pressure could apply to the software sector.
Advances in AI technology, such as DeepSeek, are leading to an overall decline in technology prices due to deflationary pressures.
Consequently, doubts are growing about Tesla's strategy to sell FSD at a high price, and concerns are rising about increased consumer burden.
Expectations for Humanoids and Supervised Autonomous Driving
Investors are increasingly interested in humanoid robots and fully autonomous driving (supervised autonomous driving).
Tesla's acclaimed autonomous driving technology is still at a stage where it requires human supervision, but there is anticipation for large-scale value creation through future technological advancements.
While the technological gap between Tesla and competitors like BYD is clear, consumers are hesitant about additional choices due to cost burdens.
The autonomous driving event scheduled for June is likely to be a critical turning point for stock price recovery.
Final Outlook and Investment Strategy
The automotive and energy sectors alone can generate a value of $180-$200, and if future technology expectations are reflected in the stock price, further increases are possible.
However, the stock is unlikely to gain momentum until the release of short-term performance results, given the recent poor sales in January and February.
Investors should prepare for short-term volatility and focus on the realization of future growth engines such as FSD, autonomous driving, and humanoids from a medium- to long-term perspective.
In conclusion, Tesla's stock price is likely to reach a bottom line and is expected to show a sideways or gradual upward trend rather than a sharp increase.
Summary
Key takeaways regarding Tesla's stock outlook.
- Morgan Stanley report suggests a target of $500 by combining the value of the automotive, energy, and software sectors.
- Electric vehicle sales surged from 500,000 units in 2020 to 1.8 million units in 2023, but the assumption of 9 million units by 2030 appears difficult.
- Price competition is expected to intensify due to concerns about the commoditization of FSD and autonomous driving software, and China's deflationary pressures.
- Future expectations for humanoid robots and supervised autonomous driving, along with the June event, are expected to act as investment variables.
- Despite short-term sales declines, Tesla stock, the global economy, autonomous driving, and deflation-related issues are expected to become key keywords in the medium to long term.
Tesla, Stocks, Global Economy, Deflation, Autonomous Driving
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