AI Revolution: Everything is Changing! Stocks Defy Gravity Here’s Why?

● Inflation Shockwave Consumer Sentiment Crumbles But Stocks Defy Gravity Here’s Why

Intensive Analysis of Today’s Stock Market Volatility

1. Market Status and Stock Market up Momentum

There’s news that the stock market rose significantly today.
Looking at the stocks that have risen everywhere like a lawn, it feels like the entire industry is evenly covered.
However, remember that we are currently in a highly volatile situation.
It is important to note that expectations for a short-term rebound are at play in an uncertain environment.

2. Analysis of Toply’s Bullish View and Tariff Issues

Toply predicts that the tariff issue will be resolved within three weeks,
citing as a key reason that countries other than the United States are performing well despite the current tariff issues.
In other words, the expectation of resolving tariff issues is already reflected in the market, and the stock markets of countries other than the United States are showing a leading trend.
He also emphasizes the possibility of overcoming the crisis by citing the market recovery case during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.

3. Impact of Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Indicators

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and expected inflation figures both showed mixed results, with sharp declines and increases.
Consumer sentiment has weakened through preliminary figures, but at the same time, bargain hunting is taking place in the market to find the bottom.
As consumer sentiment and inflation outlooks are extremely divided depending on political tendencies,
Distortions closer to political data than pure economic data are also observed.

4. Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy

Technical analysts, including Mark Minervini, pointed to oversold conditions and predicted the possibility of a rebound rally.
They reduced short positions last Tuesday, but warned that risks still exist.
This reflects a cautious stance that the possibility of additional short-term declines cannot be ruled out.
In the long term, it is necessary to increase the proportion of cash holdings and carefully monitor sell signals if the index retreats.

5. Policy Issues and Market Reaction

Amid concerns over a shutdown, the stock market rebounded temporarily due to remarks by the Democratic Senate Majority Leader.
This can be interpreted as a sentiment to take advantage of bargain hunting even without special good news.
In other words, the market is looking for opportunities to buy at a low point even amid basic anxiety.

This article focuses on SEO keywords related to the best economic outlook, global economy, stock market, economic analysis, and market outlook.
We will continue to help you make investment decisions through the latest issues and in-depth analysis.

< Summary >

The stock market rose sharply today, but volatility remains.
According to Toply’s analysis, the tariff issue is expected to be resolved quickly, and a rebound is possible as in the Cuban crisis in 1962.
Consumer sentiment and expected inflation indicators show extreme fluctuations, but interpretations differ depending on political tendencies.
Technical analysts are taking a cautious stance on trading strategies.

*Source : [Maeil Business Newspaper] [홍장원의 불앤베어] 기대인플레 급등, 소비심리 최악! 그런데도 증시 강하게 반등한 진짜 이유

● Trump Apologizes End of American Exceptionalism

U.S. Economic Recession and Analysis of Tariffs and Trump Policies Based on Wall Street Forecasts

[1] Wall Street Recession Forecast and Current Economic Situation

Wall Street is increasingly concerned about the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into recession.
Some research and analysis from firms like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan mention a 20-40% probability of recession, but overall, the official scenario does not consider recession as the base case.
Currently, the U.S. economy is largely expected to grow by at least 1.5%, but negative policies such as President Trump’s tariffs and immigration controls imply the possibility of an economic slowdown.

[2] Trump’s Tariff Policy and Its Impact

Trump’s aggressive imposition of tariffs is shocking the market.
The continuous imposition of tariffs and the ‘will he or won’t he’ attitude is spreading anxiety in the financial markets.
Internally, there is persistent concern that tariff policies will ultimately have a negative impact on U.S. economic growth.
Additionally, the issue of weakening export competitiveness due to the strong dollar is also being pointed out.

[3] Policy Shifts and Outlook for the Second Half

Wall Street experts initially worry about a recession due to Trump’s tariff policy, but,
They believe that if tax cuts and deregulation are fully implemented in the second half of the year, the market may rebound.
There is a consensus that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are solid.
Optimism coexists with the belief that the economy will normalize after a temporary contraction caused by tariffs.

[4] Historical Perspective and the Impact of Republican Rule

Historically, economic recessions have frequently occurred during Republican administrations.
There were recessions during the presidencies of Republican presidents such as Herbert Hoover, Eisenhower, Nixon, and Bush.
In comparison, economic stability has often been more apparent during Democratic administrations.
It is worth noting whether the current Trump administration’s fiscal austerity and tariff policies will lead to similar results as in the past.

[5] Financial Market Reaction and Investment Sentiment

Volatility in the financial markets due to Trump’s policies is increasing.
Adjustments in the S&P 500 index and fluctuations in option prices (e.g., Bank of America put options) are appearing.
Institutional and individual investors are taking a cautious approach, considering further declines and rebound timings.
There are also signs that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and global funds are being dispersed to China, Europe, and other regions.

[6] Problems with the Internal Economic Team and Policy Implementation

Within Trump’s economic team, there are doubts and divisions regarding expertise.
In particular, Scaramucci plays a key role, but his practical abilities related to trade are limited.
Internal disputes over the “Trump put” issue, tax cuts, and regulations are recurring.
Uncertainty about future policy shifts is increasing.

[7] Comprehensive Conclusion and Response Strategy

The U.S. economy and financial markets are unstable due to the shock of Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.
Some expect a rebound due to tax cuts and deregulation in the second half of the year, but,
Uncertainties such as historical precedents and internal conflicts cannot be ignored.
Investors need to strike a psychological balance between buying on dips and selling on rallies.
Additional analysis and cautious responses are required, focusing on the key keywords: U.S. economy, Wall Street, tariffs, Trump, and recession.

Summary

Despite forecasts of growth above 1.5%, the U.S. economy faces growing concerns about a recession due to Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.
Wall Street’s official recession forecasts are low, but in light of conflicts within the internal economic team and past recession cases during Republican rule,
The possibility of a rebound is also being sought amidst expectations of tax cuts and deregulation in the second half of the year.
Financial market reactions show adjustments in the S&P 500 and changes in asset allocation by global investors.
A cautious response is needed, focusing on the key keywords: U.S. economy, Wall Street, tariffs, Trump, and recession.

[Related Articles…]

*Source : [한경 글로벌마켓] 트럼프 “미안하게 됐다”…미국 예외주의는 이제 끝일까 | 월가백브리핑

● AI Arms Race.

GPT 4.5 and Future AI Economic Innovation: Key Takeaways You Need to Read Now!

1. GPT 4.5 – Smarter AI Beyond Scale

GPT 4.5 is not just about increasing the size of the brain; it’s an efficiently advanced AI technology that transcends economic and technological limitations.
Compared to previous GPT 3.5 or GPT 4, the amount and cost of learning data have surged, but instead of simply expanding the size, it has shifted to a method of systematically learning and contemplating more data to derive answers.
In this process, the Chain of Thought method plays a key role. It is a structure that answers questions by linking chains of thought step by step, and it is a technology that logically solves complex problems that are difficult to solve at once.

2. Artificial Intelligence Learning Process – From Pre-Training to Post-Training

First, in the pre-training scaling stage, an unsupervised learning method is used to allow AI to ‘just study everything’ with a huge amount of data.
Afterward, in the post-training scaling stage, human corrections and answer guides are used to filter out dangerous questions or inaccurate answers, and finely adjust to enable emotional and friendly responses.
This technology is designed to maximize the effect compared to economic costs and reflect the latest information, going beyond simple cost increases.

3. Deep Speech and Chain of Thought – Adding Depth to Thinking

Deep Speech and Chain of Thought allow artificial intelligence to go through multiple stages of thinking and re-verification, not just simple arithmetic.
For example, the process of deriving answers by considering various conditions in complex situations, as well as simple calculation problems, shows the appearance of ‘deep thinking’ like a person.
This process requires a lot of high-performance resources such as GPUs and requires new innovative approaches in terms of time and cost.

4. Agent AI and Collaboration Models – Future Changes

Defining GPT 4.5 as the last large model, in the future, instead of one huge AI, the model will shift to an agent AI model in which small AI optimized for each field cooperate.
This structure is more effective in various industries such as healthcare, customer service, and robotics, and is expected to have a positive impact on the ‘economic outlook’ across the industry.
Collaborative AI improves cost efficiency and response accuracy through role division in each specialized area, and at the same time, supports the reflection of the latest information.

5. Problems and Solutions of Artificial Intelligence – Economic Challenges and Technological Evolution

Various technical approaches such as GPT 4.5 and Deep Speech are used in parallel to solve problems such as hallucinations, insufficient reflection of the latest information, security issues, and high costs that existing AIs have experienced.
First, instead of a larger model, a method of reducing hallucinations and reflecting the latest information through ‘scaling’ and ‘post-training’ is introduced.
Second, security is enhanced through on-device AI or on-premises solutions to protect sensitive information of governments and companies.
Finally, by applying a method in which small AI have expertise and collaborate, such as the MOE (Mixture of Experts) model, overall cost efficiency is maximized at the same time.

6. AI Technology Innovation from an Economic Perspective

The evolution of AI technology is not simply about improving technical specifications, but is an innovative element that has a great impact on the overall global economy.
When high-performance AI is introduced, core economic keywords such as ‘big data’, ‘artificial intelligence’, ‘economic outlook’, ‘global economy’, and ‘technological innovation’ can be realized in related industries.
These changes require new business opportunities and management strategies for companies, governments, and individual investors.

< Summary >

GPT 4.5 is not a simple expansion of scale, but is a more advanced technology in which artificial intelligence applies the chain of thought through pre-training and post-training.
Thanks to economic efficiency and the reflection of the latest information through Deep Speech and collaborative AI models, innovative changes are expected in various industries such as healthcare, customer service, and robotics.
In addition, it is expected to overcome the limitations of existing AI such as hallucinations, security issues, and cost problems, and have a positive impact on the global economy and technological innovation.

*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

– “AI 판도 뒤집어졌다” 딥시크가 만든 AI 춘추전국시대, 돈은 이 쪽으로 몰릴 겁니다 / 이경일 대표 (풀버전)