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● Bull Run Begins?

U.S. Interest Rate Outlook and Global Investment Strategy Analysis

Current U.S. Economic Indicators and Market Trends

The U.S. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell indices have significantly declined year-to-date.
Recently, the S&P 500 has decreased by -4%, Nasdaq by -8%, and Russell 2000 by -8.5%.
The inversion of the yield curve has led to a 3.44% increase in the loan growth rate compared to the same period last year.
The capital adequacy ratios and fundamental indicators of U.S. banks remain healthy.
Despite concerns about economic recession, the U.S. holds 40% of the global consumer market, mitigating short-term risks.

Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cut Outlook and Liquidity Easing Effect

The Federal Reserve is considering interest rate cuts in response to concerns about economic contraction.
Currently, inflation figures are gradually stabilizing, with the super core inflation rate around 0.2%.
The Federal Reserve is considering a 0.5% rate cut by September and a total of 1.5% by the end of the year.
This rate cut is expected to release liquidity and positively impact the market.
A rate cut of 2.5% or more should be interpreted as a signal of economic recession risk and requires caution.

U.S. Corporate Fundamentals and Tech-Led Rally Outlook

U.S. corporate fundamentals are solid, with Q1 EPS expected to rise by 7.1% and revenue by 4.2%.
The S&P 500’s PER is formed at 20x and has the potential to expand to 23-25x within a year.
Reflecting analysts’ target prices, the S&P 500 could rise by 25% by the end of the year, and the Nasdaq 100 could rise by at least 30%.
In particular, technology stocks are expected to lead the market due to the IT industry and AI cycle, so investors need to focus on this.
In terms of investment strategy, the attractiveness of U.S. technology stocks and stocks related to semiconductors, cloud, and data centers is highlighted.

Global Portfolio and Investment Strategy Re-evaluation

Some suggest selling U.S. assets and buying overseas assets such as Chinese and Korean, but the U.S. fundamentals are superior in the long term.
Investment in Europe, China, and Korea can be used as a means of realizing profits, but the U.S. market remains the best investment target.
It is advantageous to consider major indices such as the U.S. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones, as well as the Japanese Nikkei and Russell 2000, etc. across the overall global market.
In terms of risk management, even conservative investors should increase their allocation to growth stocks related to AI and IT, along with stable sectors such as healthcare, financials, and consumer staples.

Summary

Currently, the U.S. market has seen declines in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell indices, but fundamentals remain sound.
The Federal Reserve is likely to pursue interest rate cuts as inflation stabilizes, which is expected to release liquidity.
U.S. corporate earnings and the AI cycle centered on technology stocks are strong, so the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are likely to rise sharply by the end of the year.
It is advisable to base investment on the U.S. while also considering European and Asian profit-taking strategies within a global portfolio.
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