● US Dominance Challenged
U.S. Economy: How to Solve the Debt Explosion and Trade Deficit?
1. Problems of Fiscal Deficit and Debt Ceiling
The U.S. government's fiscal deficit has become enormous.
Deposits in the TGA account have decreased by $480 billion.
This raises concerns about the possibility of raising the debt ceiling or defaulting due to the number of Treasury bonds issued.
As a result, there is uncertainty about whether investors will respond when the government borrows money.
2. Simultaneous Progress of Treasury Bond Issuance and Quantitative Tightening
The increase in Treasury bond supply and the Fed's quantitative tightening are proceeding simultaneously.
Due to quantitative tightening, the Fed has to release more Treasury bonds when Treasury bonds mature,
This may cause Treasury bond yields to soar.
If the interest burden increases, it will eventually have a negative ripple effect on the U.S. economy.
In particular, adjusting the 10-year Treasury yield is a key variable for U.S. economic stability.
3. Foreign Central Banks and Tariff Strategies
Foreign central banks are not continuing to buy U.S. Treasury bonds.
Major buyers such as China and Russia are not properly investing.
In response, the United States is trying to induce other countries to buy its goods through strong measures such as tariff pressure.
However, an ironic situation arises where other countries have less ability to buy expensive U.S. goods if they become economically difficult (concerns about trade deficit resolution and simultaneous stagnation of other countries).
4. Trump's Policies and American Economic Exceptionalism
The Trump administration seeks to reduce its trade deficit and pursue sustainable growth by shaking everyone up in order to make America great.
To reduce the trade deficit, other countries must buy U.S. products, but a strong dollar policy and tariffs
It is a contradictory state that even hinders the growth of other countries.
This situation is shaking the logic of American economic exceptionalism.
5. Interest Rate Adjustment Strategy and Historical Lessons
The Treasury Secretary is pursuing a strategy to control Treasury bond yields to curb rising interest rates and inflationary pressures.
It appears that they are proceeding with quantitative tightening slowly and adjusting liquidity supply as needed.
There are historical examples such as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff in 1929 and the Plaza Agreement in the past, but in the modern economic structure, the market has no choice but to react differently.
In the end, the United States is trying to find a balance between the trade deficit and the debt burden by appropriately controlling Treasury bond yields and exchange rates.
< Summary >
The U.S. economy faces the risk of default and debt ceiling problems due to the fiscal deficit and decrease in TGA account deposits. At the same time, concerns are growing about rising Treasury bond yields due to increased Treasury bond issuance and the implementation of quantitative tightening. Foreign central banks' sluggish purchases of Treasury bonds and tariff pressure strategies aim to resolve the trade deficit, but could ultimately lead to economic recession in other countries. It is important to pay close attention to how the Trump administration's strong dollar and exceptionalism policies and the Treasury Secretary's interest rate adjustment strategies will impact U.S. economic growth and trade relations.
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● Resilience-Boost, Aging-Well
The Correlation Between Life’s Relationships, Self-Care, and Economic Choices: Relationship Reconstruction and Global Economic Outlook
1. The Complex Trajectory of Life and Relationships
Humans exist in relationships from the moment they are born.
From the first encounters with parents in childhood to deep bonds with friends, colleagues, and family, our lives are filled with diverse relationships.
In the recent culture of "cutting ties" and the spread of online networks, human relationships have become more complex, and the resulting emotional conflicts have increased.
2. Resetting the Relationship with Oneself and Self-Investment
As we age, the first thing to check is the 'relationship with oneself'.
Taking care of ourselves and our health ultimately facilitates relationships with others and provides a solid foundation for economic stability.
The message that it is important for working people to invest 1-2% of their income in themselves implies that
self-care, health management, and appropriate retirement preparation should be considered together with economic choices.
3. Various Layers of Human Relationships and the Culture of 'Cutting Ties'
The expression 'cutting ties,' borrowed from stock market terminology, is used to end negative relationships, but
in reality, it reflects our choices to live by leveraging the remaining precious connections and emotions.
It contains the message of creating a life where you are the main character through the reconstruction of long-term relationships and new encounters.
4. Distinguishing Between Loneliness and Solitude, and Managing Emotions
The loneliness that everyone experiences is clearly different from the solitude chosen by oneself.
Loneliness can be pain caused by the absence of social connections, but solitude can be a valuable time for inner growth.
Objectively analyzing one's emotions and preparing emotional supplements through counseling or reading
is a strategy to protect oneself even in economic crises, along with long-term emotional management.
5. Family and Object Relations, and Intergenerational Influence
Family relationships are the most basic network given from birth.
Early relationships with parents influence the overall life afterward, but
as we grow, we can choose and reconstruct new relationship patterns ourselves.
This experience is linked to individual economic success, such as the inheritance of poverty or the transfer of wealth.
It acts as an important variable in the overall 'economic policy' and 'market analysis' of society.
6. The Link Between Relationship Reconstruction and Economic Choices
The 'resetting' and 'investment' that we learn from human relationships are very similar to the global economic outlook.
Individual health, self-care, and the optimization of human relationships are ultimately reflected in economic choices and strategies.
It is not only 'economic forecasting' or 'economic growth' that is important, but
the stability of human relationships and emotional networks is also necessary to withstand market uncertainties.
In this way, 'market analysis', 'economic policy', and the improvement of the quality of individual life
are closely intertwined, so everyone must take care of themselves first for sustainable development.
Humans grow up with various relationships from birth.
We need to reset the relationship with ourselves and balance life through self-care and health management.
It is necessary to maintain valuable relationships in the culture of cutting ties, distinguish between loneliness and solitude, and manage them appropriately.
Family and early object relations have an intergenerational impact, but we have the power to choose new relationship patterns ourselves.
All of these factors are linked to economic choices important for the sustainable development of individuals and society, such as 'global economic outlook', 'economic forecasting', 'economic growth', 'market analysis', and 'economic policy'.
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