AI Theft Economic Tsunami

● Semiconductor Spring- Buy Samsung, SK Hynix?

Global Economic Outlook: Bottom-Fishing Strategy and the Future of Semiconductor and Memory Semiconductor Market

[1] Validity of Bottom-Fishing Strategy and Stock Price Trends

Recently, stock prices have halved since July of last year, and the bottom-fishing strategy is considered effective at this time.

However, rather than a sharp rise in stock prices, a gradual buying investment strategy is recommended when prices move below the midpoint within a certain range.

This strategy is effective for the current economic uncertainty and supply and demand issues.

[2] Semiconductor Market Trends and Detailed Analysis

The main issues in the semiconductor industry are changes in demand by each group, such as smartphones, PCs, and servers, and inventory management issues.

· In the smartphone sector, Chinese smartphone companies have accumulated inventory after reducing semiconductor orders last year, and government subsidies are having a positive impact on the sales of mid-to-low-priced phones.

· In the PC sector, an increase in shipments due to the Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) effect in January and February and pre-emptive purchases before the imposition of US tariffs have been observed.

· In the server sector, concerns about a slowdown in AI investment and adjustments in capex guidance by Big Tech companies are making supply prospects uncertain.

[3] Production Volume vs. Sales Volume: Samsung Electronics vs. Hynix and Micron

Samsung Electronics is increasing its HBM production by 120% compared to last year, but sales volume has decreased significantly, raising concerns about inventory accumulation.

Hynix and Micron are expected to maintain solid HBM market conditions until the end of this year, as their sales volume decrease has been relatively smaller.

At the same time, if production facilities are idle, the possibility of expanding production of legacy DDR (DDR4, etc.) exists, which could act as a factor in price decline if there is no additional rebound in demand.

[4] DDR5·DDR4 Spot Prices and Supply-Demand Relationship

DDR5 supply seems to maintain an upward trend in spot prices due to tight supply and demand conditions and tariff imposition in the short term.

On the other hand, DDR4 already has excessive inventory in distribution channels, and although prices have risen somewhat due to speculative demand, it is unlikely to be sustained without fundamental changes.

This phenomenon affects the overall memory semiconductor market and is expected to act as an important variable in the economic outlook.

[5] Future Outlook: Economic Slowdown, AI Investment, and US Policy Impact

Concerns about a global economic slowdown, along with the US government’s fiscal burden and interest rate cut policies, are likely to act as major variables in the semiconductor market in the future.

In particular, in relation to the slowdown in AI investment, the investment growth rate of Big Tech companies may decrease sharply, and there is a risk that demand for servers, DRAM, and HBM will slow down accordingly.

The analysis is that it is still appropriate to buy at low points when entering the market, but it is necessary to carefully monitor whether semiconductor stock prices will continue to follow the historical pattern of preceding the economic leading indicator by about 6 months.

Recently, stock prices have fallen since July of last year, making the bottom-fishing strategy effective. In the semiconductor and memory semiconductor market, smartphone inventory accumulation, PC shipment increases, AI investment slowdown, and DDR5 supply tightness are major issues. Samsung Electronics has significantly increased HBM production but may face difficulties due to decreased sales and inventory accumulation, while Hynix and Micron are expected to show relative strength. Along with macroeconomic variables such as economic slowdown and changes in US policy, the market is showing a stock price fluctuation pattern that precedes by 6 months. It is necessary to closely monitor future market volatility, focusing on key keywords such as bottom-fishing, semiconductors, memory semiconductors, DDR5, and AI investment.

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*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

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● AI-Driven Transformation

Analysis of the Latest AI Technology Theft Dispute and Economic Impact

1. Cases of Technology Theft and Internal Use

AI technology, which had been discussed within OpenAI and Google for the past decade, has been utilized extensively in the last two years.
In particular, as cases of copying technology from external sources increase, conflicts among internal engineers are intensifying.
OpenAI takes the position that it is natural for their technology to be stolen from external sources,
and acknowledges that technology has already been shared within the company in a similar manner.
This phenomenon can also be interpreted as the impact of AI technology and deep learning-based artificial intelligence utilization on the global economy.

2. Economic Implications of the Internal Situations of OpenAI and Google

Both OpenAI and Google have been developing artificial intelligence technology for a long time,
and this technology is affecting the overall economy in the process of being used internally and externally.
The issue of technology theft is not simply ending as a legal dispute,
but is emerging as an important factor directly related to economic prospects and corporate competitiveness.
As seen in cases where technology is adopted by paying costs,
the analysis of economic costs and benefits is emerging as the core issue in this dispute.

3. DeepSeek Case and Future Litigation Possibilities

The DeepSeek case is an incident of massive technology copying,
and it is pointed out as a major problem that the party who stole the technology systematically profited from external sources.
For example, the situation of using technology by paying costs is linked to a kind of ‘fair use’ issue.
In addition, similar to cases where people learn and use technology from colleagues or neighbors,
even in the phenomenon where the sharing and utilization of technology is taken for granted,
the legal interpretation of who to sue is becoming difficult.
As high costs and profit exchanges follow, it has a significant impact on the direction of the global economy and artificial intelligence innovation.

4. Economic Outlook and Global Impact

This technology theft dispute goes beyond a simple legal dispute,
and shows the ripple effects of deep learning, AI technology, and artificial intelligence utilization on the overall economy.
In the global economic market, technological competitiveness is an important factor that determines the future value of a company.
The current technology theft issue is a representative example that gauges the future competitiveness between companies,
economic prospects, and the direction of the speed of technological innovation.
In particular, through major SEO keywords such as economic outlook, global economy, artificial intelligence, and deep learning,
industry experts see the seriousness of this issue and
believe that strategic consideration is needed on how companies should respond.

Key Contents:
– The utilization and sharing of AI technology that began within OpenAI and Google 10 years ago has recently emerged as a problem.
– Cases of technology theft are affecting economic prospects and global economic competitiveness.
– The mass theft problem caused by the DeepSeek case and the legal ambiguity of litigation are major issues.
– How artificial intelligence and deep learning technology are impacting the overall economy,
it is necessary to reinterpret from the perspective of cost and profit exchange.

*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

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