Urgent Population Meltdown South Korea SOS

● SOUTH KOREA IS COLLAPSING

◆ The Start and Numerical Status of South Korea’s Population Crisis
South Korea has been facing population problems for decades.
In the 1950s, the average was 6 children per family, while it fell below 2 in the 1980s.
In 2023, South Korea recorded a fertility rate of 0.72 children per woman.
In large cities such as Seoul, this figure is even lower, at around 0.55.

◆ 2060 Outlook – A Rapid Change in the Population Pyramid
If the current trend continues, 100 South Korea citizens will be reduced to just 5 across four generations.
The current population pyramid shows a stark difference between the ratio of the 1st generation and the 50th generation.
By 2060, the total population will decrease by 30%, with approximately 16 million people disappearing, and the entire country will transition into a super-aged society.
The population aged 65 and over will reach 50%, while the population under 25 is expected to be less than 10%.

◆ Economic Collapse – Decreased Labor Force and Pension Crisis
Currently, South Korea’s working-age population is approximately 37 million, and the GDP is around $1.7 trillion.
However, by 2060, the labor force is expected to decrease by more than half, to around 17 million.
The pension system requires at least 2 to 3 workers to support one elderly person, but in the future, this ratio will fall below 1:1.
Along with this, the national tax revenue will also decrease, making it very difficult to maintain essential services such as medical care and social welfare.

◆ Social and Cultural Collapse – Loneliness, Family Disconnection, and Cultural Decline
Currently, about 20% of Koreans live alone or have no close family.
By 2060, the majority of the elderly will live without family, and the younger generation will become extremely small in number.
Educational institutions such as schools, kindergartens, and universities are at risk of closing due to population decline or lack of human resources.
Cultural trends such as K-pop, K-dramas, and K-food from the 2000s will face difficulties in transmission due to the decline in the younger generation.
Additionally, South Korea’s military burden is expected to increase.
Currently, about 5% of the population serves in the military, but in 2060, at least 15% will be needed, making it difficult to maintain military strength.

◆ Irreversible Path – Why is Change Difficult?
Once a population decline trend has begun, it is like an irreversible ‘demographic freight train’.
Even if the birth rate suddenly rises to 2.1, it is difficult to avoid the already-in-progress shrinking labor force and bottlenecks in the social structure.
The economy, society, and culture are all on the verge of fundamental change.

◆ Possibility of Recovery and Necessary Changes
Even if there are seeds of hope, a drastic change in society as a whole is needed for recovery.
There has been a 3% recovery in the fertility rate in 2024 compared to the previous year, but this is difficult to sustain without fundamental institutional improvements and cultural changes.
Support for families, efficient childcare and education policies, and an equal culture of household chores must be accompanied.

◆ Conclusion
South Korea’s population collapse is not just a numbers problem, but a threat to survival across the economy, society, and culture.
If we do not face this crisis now and promote urgent institutional and social changes, the future ahead will only become darker.
It is time for all of us to recognize this crisis and work together for change.

< Summary >

South Korea’s Population Collapse and the Resulting Comprehensive Economic and Social Crisis

Current Situation

South Korea is experiencing extremely low birth rates of 0.72 children per person in 2023, moving away from the 6-child trend of the 1950s.

2060 Outlook

The population will decrease by 30% within 35 years and become a super-aged society, placing an enormous burden on the economy and society as a whole.

Economic Impact

A slowdown in GDP growth and economic recession is inevitable due to the shrinking labor force and the collapse of the pension system.

Society and Culture

Family disconnection, the spread of loneliness, and the threat to cultural transmission of the younger generation raise concerns about changes in the social structure.

Future Measures

Institutional improvements and cultural innovation must be rapidly promoted to address economic prospects, population decline, South Korea, aging, and social change.

*Source : [Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell] SOUTH KOREA IS OVER

● Urgent Market Warning Don’t Ignore

Starting from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008, this is a chronological summary of the stock market’s dramatic fluctuations to date.
In particular, it highlights the impact of Powell and Trump’s remarks, the movements of the MIX index and VIX futures index, and events from the global financial crisis amid the Fed’s lack of intervention to COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine situation on the stock market at a glance.
Below is a detailed summary of the major events, their impact on the stock market, and future prospects for each period.

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2008 – Global Financial Crisis
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• Lehman Brothers bankruptcy occurs

The collapse of Lehman, one of America’s leading investment banks, sent shockwaves through the global financial system.
It led to a credit market crunch, AIG bailout, MMF redemption suspension, and CDS market turmoil.
• VIX futures index spikes
The VIX futures, a fear gauge, soared to around 70 at the time.
• Stock market shock
As the stock market MIX index plummeted, major U.S. indices fell from 2,000 points to the 1,000-point range.

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2010 – Greek Fiscal Crisis and Flash Crash
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• Greek fiscal crisis spreads

Anxiety within the Eurozone leads investors to fear the possibility of a Eurozone collapse.
• Flash Crash occurs
An event occurs where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted nearly 1,000 points and then recovered in just a few minutes.
• VIX futures index
At that time, the VIX index also exceeded 30, reflecting market fear.
• The U.S. situation was relatively stable, so the stock market itself recovered quickly.

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2011 – U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade
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• U.S. national credit rating downgrade (AAA → AA+)

Global stock markets plummet simultaneously due to evaluations by credit rating agencies such as SNB.
Increased concerns about additional fiscal crises, such as soaring Italian and Spanish government bond yields in Europe.
• VIX futures index rebound
As fear peaked, the index jumped back above 30.

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2020 – COVID-19 Crisis and Fed Intervention
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• COVID-19 pandemic occurs

The U.S. and global stock markets plummet rapidly, triggering circuit breakers three times.
• Large-scale intervention by the Fed
The stock market shows a V-shaped rebound due to announcements of policies such as unlimited liquidity supply and interest rate cuts.
• VIX futures index
Fear levels spiked, but the Fed’s strong response maintained the stock market’s recovery.

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2022 – Russia-Ukraine Invasion and Jackson Hole Remarks
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• Intensified geopolitical instability

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting spread of global economic instability.
• Jackson Hole Remarks
Warned that households and businesses could suffer to curb inflation, causing a stock market crash.
• VIX futures index
Once again, fear levels exceeded 30.
• Market Reaction and Outlook
Concerns about recession and stagflation emerge amid Trump’s tariff bombs and the Fed’s lack of intervention.
Commodity prices plummet overnight (crude oil, natural gas, coffee, cocoa, etc.), deepening the possibility of a recession.
The stock market rebound will likely depend on the Fed’s intervention.

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Current and Future Outlook
─────────────────────────────
• Powell vs. Trump

Powell: “We are not in a position to lower interest rates at this time” and insists on the need to observe the data.
Trump: Continues to enforce tariff policies, with no signs of backing down, perpetuating economic uncertainty.
• The Role of the Fed
The Fed plays a key role in the stock market recovery.
Unlike in the past, it is interpreted that the Fed’s immediate intervention is currently difficult.
• Future Market Direction
If Trump’s policies fail, there is a possibility of emergency intervention by the Fed.
Conversely, without large-scale intervention, there is a possibility of stagflation or a larger economic recession.
The sharp decline in commodity prices and the surge in recession concern indices in polymarkets are noteworthy.

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< Summary >
─────────────────────────────
From the financial crisis that began with Lehman’s bankruptcy in 2008,
To the Greek crisis in 2010, the U.S. credit rating downgrade in 2011,
The COVID-19 crisis and Fed intervention in 2020, and the Russia-Ukraine invasion in 2022,
This is a chronological summary of the major events the stock market has experienced.
Market fear could be confirmed with the VIX futures index and MIX index,
Currently, concerns about economic recession and stagflation are growing amid Trump’s tariff policies and the Fed’s lack of intervention.
As the economic development is uncertain, the stock market recovery depends on the Fed’s policy intervention.

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Overall Summary

Key Items of the Article

Summary of stock market dips and rebounds from the 2008 financial crisis, the 2010 Greek crisis, the 2011 U.S. credit rating downgrade, the 2020 COVID-19 crisis, and the 2022 geopolitical crisis.

Stock Market & Fed & Interest Rates & Tariffs & Recession

The stock market is showing danger signals with the rise in the VIX futures index, a fear gauge, and fluctuations in the MIX index.
The Fed’s past intervention cases, Trump’s current tariff policies, and future concerns about interest rates and recession are key.
The future recovery of the stock market is expected to heavily depend on Fed policies.

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