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● Trade War Endgame, Trump’s Strategy Revealed

In-depth Analysis of Global Economic Outlook and Tariff War

Recent Stock Market Plunge and Historical Comparison

Recently, the SP500 experienced a drop of over 10% in just two days.
This is a rare plunge since 1950, ranking as the fifth-largest on record.
Comparing cases like the 1987 Black Monday, which saw a 35% crash within a month followed by recovery in two years,
The 2020 COVID-19 crisis, which saw a 35% drop in one month followed by recovery within a year, and
The 2008 financial crisis, which saw about a 50% drop over 18 months followed by recovery over four years,
We examine the severity of the current situation and the possibility of market recovery.
Thus, the stock market significantly influences the global economy, financial crises, and economic prospects.

Analysis of Treasury Secretary Scott Cent Interview

Treasury Secretary Scott Cent appeared on the Tucker Carlson Show for an interview lasting approximately one and a half hours.
He is a former hedge fund manager who worked with George Soros, Jim Rogers, and others,
And has experience teaching economic history at Yale University.
The interview addressed issues beyond simple tariffs, such as the Deep State situation and the weakening of America’s AI competitiveness,
Emphasizing America’s structural vulnerabilities and support policies for the lower asset class.
This suggests that the tariff war is not just a numbers game but a factor of instability across the entire American economy.

Trump Administration’s Tariff Policy and Economic Outlook

The Trump administration’s strong commitment to tariff policies was evident throughout the Treasury Secretary’s interview.
Although there are concerns about price increases due to tariff hikes, these will be partially offset by tax cuts.
In particular, the focus is on supporting the bottom 50% of asset holders, as opposed to stock ownership led by the wealthiest Americans.
Also, the US is seen as having a favorable position in the global supply chain, rather than facing retaliatory tariffs from China.
In this process, concerns are growing about the impact of the tariff war on the global economy and economic prospects.

JP Morgan Economic Outlook and Interest Rate Cut Forecast

JP Morgan has lowered its forecast for the US real GDP from a 1.3% increase this year to a 0.3% decrease.
Instead of unemployment, they suggest the possibility of stagflation, with rising inflation and a core PC inflation rate of 4.4%.
As a result, interest rate cuts are expected to begin in June, with the benchmark interest rate falling to the 3% range by January next year.
These forecasts reflect global financial crises, stock market trends, and global economic uncertainties.

US Tech Companies and Tariff Burden

If tariff policies are implemented, US tech companies will face enormous cost burdens due to the relocation of production bases and restructuring of supply chains.
This will defer capital expenditures and may adversely affect technological innovation and global competitiveness in the long term.
In other words, US tech companies may risk falling behind by about 10 years due to the tariff war.
On the other hand, the possibility of Chinese tech companies taking advantage of this gap is increasing, foreshadowing significant changes in the global economic landscape.

Concerns About Financial Crisis and Hedge Fund Risk

In a scenario where hedge funds borrow money using stocks as collateral, the risk of margin calls increases significantly during a stock market crash.
The sharp decline even in gold, which was considered a traditional safe asset, places a significant burden on hedge funds and banks,
Potentially leading to instability in the financial system itself.
This contains structural risks similar to those of the 2008 financial crisis, raising concerns about seriously impacting the global economy and stock market.

Market Fear Index and Buying Opportunity

The current fear index is 45.3, indicating extreme market anxiety.
Looking at past data, there have been numerous cases where buying when the fear index is extremely high has resulted in stable returns after one, three, and five years.
Therefore, short-term crashes can serve as opportunities for long-term investors,
And it is necessary to utilize market fear situations with cautious investment strategies.

Summary

Starting with the recent example of the SP500 falling by more than 10% in two days, we compare it with historical crash examples such as Black Monday in 1987, the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, and the financial crisis in 2008.
Through Treasury Secretary Scott Cent’s interview, we point out that tariff policies reflect support for the lower asset class and the structural vulnerabilities of the US economy.
We analyze concerns about stagflation, global supply chain restructuring, and the decline in US tech companies’ competitiveness through the Trump administration’s tariff policies, JP Morgan’s economic outlook, and interest rate cut forecasts.
We also cover the possibility of financial crises, such as the risk of margin calls for hedge funds, and buying opportunities using the fear index.
All of this content is intertwined with key SEO keywords such as economic outlook, tariff war, financial crisis, stock market, and global economy, providing an in-depth analysis.

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