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● Tariff Delay Relief

Global Economic Outlook – Analysis of the Impact of the Tariff War

1. Announcement of Emergency Tariff Measures and Basic Scenario

Breaking news: The U.S. will impose reciprocal tariffs on China starting April 9.
Tensions are rising as the announcement is made that tariff imposition will be suspended for 90 days for countries other than China.
These announcements are emerging as major issues that will have significant repercussions for the U.S., China, and the global economy.
Key economic terms such as tariffs, trade wars, and retaliatory tariffs are prominent in this matter.

2. Negative Scenario – Chain Effect of Reciprocal Tariffs and Retaliation

There are concerns that China will announce 34% retaliatory tariffs in response to the U.S. reciprocal tariff measures and take additional retaliatory measures.
This increases the possibility of further stock price adjustments, and both the U.S. and Korean stock markets are already showing a downward trend.
If the price of Chinese products rises due to tariffs, this could disrupt the global supply chain, intensify the trade war, and adversely affect the overall economy.

3. Positive Scenario – Selective Tariff Suspension and Negotiation Possibilities

There is a strategy to not impose tariffs on countries other than China and to induce negotiations with the U.S.
In this case, countries that have cooperated with the U.S. are exempt from tariff burdens, which could give them a competitive advantage in exports.
In other words, if the U.S. takes exceptional measures through active negotiations, it could positively impact the stock market and the global economy.

4. Political Undercurrent – Trump’s Policies and Midterm Election Strategy

The tariff war is not just an economic issue; political calculations are at play.
The Trump administration is strongly motivated to secure a favorable position in the midterm elections through tariff measures.
Excessive tariffs could lead to political turmoil, as evidenced by 600,000 protesters gathering in the U.S. to voice their opposition.
In addition, diplomatic strategies are being observed, such as major countries in Europe and China seeking to isolate the U.S. through retaliatory measures and joint responses.

5. Impact on the Global Supply Chain and the Korean Economy

Policy changes in the U.S. are expected to lead to higher prices for Chinese products and instability in the global trade environment.
While opportunities are expanding for products from alternative exporting countries, Korean SMEs that rely on the supply chain may face difficulties.
Many suppliers, including those in the auto parts sector, are bound to react sensitively to this issue.
Therefore, the Korean economy needs to respond cautiously amidst the repercussions of the trade war and retaliatory tariffs between the U.S. and China.

< Summary >

Focusing on the issues of tariffs, trade wars, China, the global economy, and retaliatory tariffs, breaking news has emerged that the U.S. will impose reciprocal tariffs on China starting April 9, while suspending them for 90 days for other countries.
In the negative scenario, there are major concerns about stock market declines and disruptions to the global supply chain due to China’s retaliatory tariffs and chain measures. In the positive scenario, the possibility of exceptional measures through inducing negotiations is presented.
Furthermore, the Trump administration’s tariff policies are based on midterm election strategies and political calculations, and it is analyzed that they could cause political backlash both inside and outside the U.S., as well as adversely affecting the global economy, including Korea.

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*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

– [속보] 가짜뉴스 입니다. “중국을 제외한 모든 국가들에 관세 발효 90일 유예 고려 – 미국 백악관” [즉시분석]