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Nasdaq Soars: Analyzing Trump’s Tariff Policies and U.S. Economic Risks

[1] Nasdaq Surge and Market Reaction

The Nasdaq index surged by 8.6% today.
Even though the final results are uncertain as it’s before the market close, the price movement indicates a significant rise.
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 also show strength.
The entire U.S. stock market is bustling, giving investors a dopamine rush.
Understanding the background of this positive reaction across the stock market is crucial.

[2] Trump’s Tariff Policy Announcement and Its Message

Trump announced a 90-day postponement of all tariffs.
However, the announcement included a 125% tariff notice to China and a general 10% tariff for other countries.
This maximizes the impact of the U.S. government’s policies on the market.
While the tariff postponement sends a positive signal, the tension between the U.S. and China remains.
The impact of this policy decision on the U.S. economy and global bond market is worth noting.

[3] The Evolution and Historical Context of the U.S.-China Tariff War

The tariff war began when the U.S. imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on China.
China retaliated with a 34% tariff, followed by the U.S. increasing tariffs from 50% to 104%.
China strongly responded with an 84% retaliatory tariff on the U.S.
Recently, Trump complicated the situation by foreshadowing a 125% tariff.
It appears that China is attempting to use this to induce inflation and instability in the U.S. economy.

[4] Public Sentiment and Political Atmosphere in the U.S.

Support for Trump is declining.
A recent 65-part survey showed that 51% opposed Trump.
The 5-point increase in opposition immediately following Trump’s tariff policy announcement serves as a major warning.
Especially with the midterm elections approaching, there is significant pressure to present clear achievements.

[5] Bond Market Crisis and Financial Market Instability

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen sharply from 3.9% to 4.4%.
This level of volatility is the largest since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a collapse in bond prices.
Institutional investors leveraging investments using slaries and basis trades have faced massive liquidations.
This instability in the bond market significantly impacts the overall U.S. economy, especially the credibility of bonds, which were considered safe assets.

[6] Long-Term U.S. Economic and Investment Environment Outlook

The U.S. economy is highly dependent on foreign countries, making it sensitive to inflation and economic instability.
The volatility in the financial market alongside Trump’s tariff policy can impose a long-term burden on the U.S. economy.
China is using this situation as an opportunity to highlight the weaknesses of the U.S. economy.
As confidence in U.S. assets declines in the global financial market, developed markets may be re-evaluated as risky as emerging markets.

[7] Investor Sentiment and Individual Stress Factors

Increased financial market volatility is amplifying investors’ psychological anxiety.
Like the ‘mental tax on government actions’ mentioned by Morgan Housel, stress is accumulating among investors.
Due to the instability in the stock and bond markets, individual investors are also feeling a great burden, hoping for a market reversal.

< Summary >

The U.S. stock market showed a strong rise along with today’s Nasdaq surge.
Trump announced a postponement of all tariffs, but tension between the U.S. and China remains as he foreshadowed a 125% tariff on China.
The history of past tariff wars and the recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields have increased instability in the bond market.
In a U.S. opinion poll, opposition to Trump increased to 51%, increasing political pressure, and concerns about the U.S. economy’s foreign dependence and inflation are increasing.
All of these factors are expected to have a significant impact on the global financial market, the U.S. economy, and the bond market.
In addition, as investors’ psychological stress increases, it is urgent to create a stable investment environment.

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