Trump Shock Economic Mayhem

● Trump Shock Warning

Challenges and Response Strategies of the Global Economy in Light of Changes in US Tariffs and Supply Chain Decoupling

[1] Changes in US Tariff Policy and Its Impact

As the US requires Korean manufacturers in industries such as batteries and solar panels to comply with US regulations, the standards for imposing tariffs are increasing.
With tariff rates rising to an average of 20%, companies are facing increased cost burdens, including changes in parts sourcing and expansion of new production lines.
There are cases where customs clearance, which used to take 30 days, has been shortened to one week due to document preparation and submission of US regulatory compliance documents.
These changes are related to the IMF’s forecast that global economic growth may decrease, with a potential drop of about 0.8% to 8%.

[2] Price Increases and Supply Chain Restructuring Due to Tariff Increases

Price increases for products are inevitable due to tariff increases, especially with larger price increases for smaller orders compared to large volume orders.
Companies such as Dollar Tree and Daiso are trying to offset some of the impact through exchange rates, parts changes, and adjustments to production methods, but there are limitations.
In the process of supply chain restructuring, companies must actively respond to tariff policies and non-tariff barriers of major economic powers such as the US and China.
Increased logistics costs and work delays occur due to non-tariff barriers and customs clearance delays, which are likely to be reflected in final consumer prices.

[3] Background and Political Motivation of US Economic Policy

President Trump is evaluated by the stability of the stock market and has a will to prevent a recession despite the overseas relocation of manufacturing.
The strategy of fostering manufacturing in the US while enduring economic pain is expected to lead to short-term economic downturns and long-term global competitiveness.
Despite flexible measures such as government tariff waivers and 90-day delays, additional sanctions are expected, including increased non-tariff barriers and strengthened customs clearance, in addition to tariff increases.

[4] Supply Chain Decoupling and US-China Economic Confrontation

Global supply chain decoupling is more than just tariff imposition; it is accelerating as economic and political confrontation between the US and China intensifies.
The Trump administration is pursuing a strategy to reduce dependence on overseas by reorganizing the supply chain and inducing production in the US to revitalize domestic manufacturing.
At the same time, when overseas companies enter the US, they warn of additional economic burdens such as increased customs clearance costs beyond tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

[5] Response Strategies for Companies and Investors

Companies are thoroughly complying with US regulations by establishing US sanctions and export control compliance programs.
Strategies to minimize the adverse effects of tariffs and price increases through supply chain diversification, establishment of domestic production lines, and external risk management are needed.
Investors should prepare for uncertain economic conditions and the possibility of economic recession by reviewing portfolio construction and risk diversification strategies that are resilient to short-term volatility.
Continuous market analysis and policy monitoring are required, focusing on top SEO keywords such as US tariffs, global economy, supply chain decoupling, economic recession, and manufacturing.

[6] Future Prospects and Conclusions

US tariff policy is expected to be adjusted depending on political and economic conditions rather than being completely resolved in the short term.
Supply chain decoupling and manufacturing internalization may increase global market competitiveness in the long term, but short-term corporate burden and price increases are inevitable.
In the end, cooperation between companies and governments to flexibly respond to US regulations and tariff adjustments is emerging as a key task in future global economic strategies.

US tariff increases, supply chain decoupling, and strengthened non-tariff barriers are affecting manufacturing and prices worldwide.
The economic policies and political motivations of the Trump administration aim to revive manufacturing in the US while weakening the economy in the short term, and accordingly, companies are accelerating the establishment of US regulatory compliance and export control programs.
With US tariffs, global economy, supply chain decoupling, economic recession, and manufacturing keywords as the focus, companies and investors must prepare for short-term instability and develop long-term strategies.

*YouTube Source: [Jun’s economy lab]

– 이번에는 다릅니다, 트럼프 쇼크 조심하세요(ft. 조의준 대표 2부)

● Recession Alarm Bells?

Global Economy, Financial Crisis, Policy Outlook, U.S. Economy, International Trade – Key Issues Summary

[1] Q2·Q3 Transition and Chicken Game Structure

The Trump administration starts to move actively from the second quarter.
From the third quarter, conflicts are likely to intensify like a chicken game.
In the process of policy development, if one side reaches its limit, someone will come forward to mediate and rescue.

[2] Tariff Increase and Tax Cut Strategy

Tariff increases are putting pressure on consumer prices.
It is used as a tariff policy tool in the trade conflict with China.
Trump is pursuing a strategy to promote corporate tax cuts and investment with tariff revenue.
The corporate tax rate is expected to drop from the existing 25% to 19%.

[3] Financial System Crisis and Leverage Risk

Concerns about interest rate fluctuations and leverage liquidation are growing in the U.S. Treasury market.
The financial system is at risk due to the concentration of leverage products.
The expansion of U.S. spreads in the international bond market acts as a warning sign.

[4] Deregulation of Banks and Use of Excess Reserves

Banks already have excess reserves.
There is a possibility that Trump Put, that is, deregulation of banks and promotion of lending, will be promoted.
This is expected to increase bank liquidity supply and money supply.
In this process, the Fed’s stimulus package, called Powell Put, is also expected to be implemented in parallel.

[5] U.S. Government Debt and Fiscal Soundness

Government debt before COVID-19 was $22 trillion, but it has now increased to $35 trillion.
The Biden administration’s large-scale fiscal spending has resulted in exceeding the debt limit.
Trump will try to secure fiscal soundness through tariffs and foreign policies in the face of huge debts.
The timing of policy changes related to the increase in government debt should be closely monitored.

[6] Overall Economic Outlook and Future Response

U.S. policy decisions have a direct impact on the global economy and international trade.
Tariffs, tax cuts, and bank lending are likely to be promoted simultaneously.
Policy changes may cause short-term confusion, but the worst financial crisis is expected to be avoided.
Even in the midst of various uncertainties, the market will respond in a probability game manner.

Currently, the Trump administration is actively acting from the second quarter, and signs of full-scale conflict are seen from the third quarter.
It is attempting to resolve leverage risks in the financial system through tariff increases and tax cut strategies, and deregulation of banks (Trump Put·Powell Put).
U.S. government debt surged before and after COVID, and various policy changes are expected to be promoted to secure fiscal soundness.
It is expected that the impact on the U.S. economy, the global economy, and international trade will increase simultaneously with the policy change.

[Related Articles…]
Trump policy change analysis
Powell’s financial stability outlook

*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

– “미국 경기침체 온다?” 트럼프와 파월의 파격적인 선택, 3가지 뉴스를 주목해야 합니다 / 김태홍 대표 (3부)

● Kim Jong-un’s-Death-Report, Penultimate-Dose

Analysis of Recent Political Turmoil and Global Economic Instability

The Beginning of Political Events and Social Unrest

Recent events related to Jang Sung-taek and the issue of persecution against Kim Kyung-hee have been vehemently reported.
As these events unfold, public anxiety is growing across society.
Attempts to disparage past leaders and emphasize self-aggrandizement are further stimulating public sentiment.
The process of undermining respect for historical figures and public trust is revealed.
Investors are paying attention to uncertainty, along with the potential impact of political turmoil on global financial markets.
Analyze the impact of political instability on the overall economic system, along with economic, global, investment, financial, and securities-related issues.

Health Problem Analogy and Crisis Response System

Metaphorically, after the outbreak of the incident, complications such as hyperlipidemia, diabetes, and hypertension can be seen in the economic system.
Stress and chaos throughout society imply a crisis situation like a stroke.
As there are crisis response measures that are likened to the last resort, the government and financial authorities need to focus on preparing emergency response measures for the crisis situation.
This process also affects global stock markets and financial investment markets, and investors should pay attention to risk management.

The Role of International Politics and Intelligence Agencies

Reports have emerged that China’s Ministry of State Security has prepared a report on Kim Jong-un’s surgery and life expectancy.
Along with this, domestic intelligence agencies such as the National Intelligence Service are also identifying incidents related to Kim Jong-un in connection with overseas political situations.
As overseas and domestic information are cross-verified, financial market instability factors linked to international political risks are highlighted.
Political instability and global economic instability interact, and at this time, volatility in investment, finance, and securities markets is greatly amplified.
These changes in the international situation are variables that must be paid attention to when establishing economic and global investment strategies.

< Summary >

Political events and social unrest are rapidly increasing, and attempts to disparage past political leaders and emphasize self-aggrandizement are having the opposite effect.
Metaphorically, crisis situations such as health problems (hyperlipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, etc.) are appearing, and it is urgent to prepare the last resort.
Based on data from China’s Ministry of State Security and domestic intelligence agencies, the impact of international political risks on global financial and investment markets is increasing.
It is necessary to establish strategies to prepare for market instability based on key economic, global, investment, financial, and securities-related issues.

[Related Articles…]

*YouTube Source: [달란트투자]

– “최후의 약 먹고 있다” 사망보고서 나온 김정은. 곧 한반도 전역이 발칵 뒤집힌다⎢강철환 대표 3부