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● Trade War Escalates

Tariff Crisis and Global Economic Crisis: Discussion of Interest Rates and Trade Uncertainty

Market’s First Momentum: NVIDIA and ASML Shock

In the market, tariff issues are evolving beyond simple matters into a tangible crisis for the overall global economy.
This morning, NASDAQ showed a significant drop of nearly 4%, which can be attributed to major events such as the earnings announcements of NVIDIA and ASML.
In the case of NVIDIA, concerns over a $5.5 billion loss due to Chinese semiconductor export restrictions have led to an additional 10% drop in its stock price.
In particular, the halt of H20 chip exports, which NVIDIA previously utilized, due to the Trump administration’s semiconductor shipment regulations, has heightened market anxiety.

ASML has also been severely affected.
As a key player in no-equipment manufacturing, ASML's order intake for Q1 2025 was significantly lower than expected, leading to a drop of over 5%. This shows signs of semiconductor investment uncertainty being practically reflected in performance.
As customer investment sentiment has weakened, a restrained atmosphere regarding semiconductor capacity expansion has spread, negatively impacting related companies.

Fed Chair Powell’s Remarks and Market Reaction

Fed Chair Powell’s speech at 2:30 AM this morning caused a major shock to the market.
Powell mentioned inflation pressure from trade wars and tariffs, stating firmly that the central bank does not need to cut interest rates immediately.
He pointed out that the dual goals of price stability and maximum employment could conflict, and indicated an attitude of closely monitoring the situation before adjusting policy stances.
In particular, Powell saw a high possibility that tariffs could cause a temporary rise in inflation, which amplified anxiety throughout the stock market.
During the Q&A session, his response of “premature” to concerns about stagflation and a bond market crash disappointed the market by not providing specific countermeasures.

Development and Outlook of the U.S.-China Trade Conflict

As trade war issues resurfaced, discussions regarding tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China have emerged.
The White House announced the application of tariffs up to 245% on China, detailing the structure of mutual tariffs.
The Chinese side mentioned its willingness to engage in dialogue and the designation of personnel with practical negotiation authority, signaling a positive intention to keep the door open for dialogue.
However, as the situation can change rapidly with a single SNS statement from the U.S. Trump administration, uncertainty in trade policy is expected to continue.

Key Points Summary

· The cases of NVIDIA and ASML show that tariffs are directly impacting corporate performance and global investment sentiment.
· Fed Chair Powell’s speech did not raise expectations for interest rate cuts and exacerbated market anxiety due to the inflation-first policy.
· The uncertainty of the U.S.-China trade war and tariff policies is negatively impacting technology stocks and the financial market as a whole.
· In the long term, tariff issues, interest rate policies, and trade conflicts are highly likely to put the world economy at a crossroads of crisis.
· In this situation, issues related to international trade, semiconductors, economic crisis, interest rates, and tariffs are expected to act as important variables in investment and policy decisions.

Explains the phenomenon of the global economic crisis deepening due to various factors such as tariffs and trade uncertainty.
Starting with the poor performance of NVIDIA and ASML, Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on interest rates and inflation greatly shocked the market.
The U.S.-China trade conflict and tariff application are weakening global investment sentiment, and stagflation and bond market volatility are also a concern.
Reinterprets future economic prospects, focusing on key SEO keywords such as international trade, semiconductors, economic crisis, interest rates, and tariffs.

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