Recession Apocalypse Alert

● Recession Looms.

Bank of Korea’s Q1 GDP Flash Estimate Analysis and Outlook – Thoroughly Analyzing Key Indicators to the Impact of Future Trade Wars

1. Announcement Time and Basic Indicators

The Bank of Korea has announced the flash estimate for the first quarter’s real gross domestic product (GDP).
The announcement time was 8:01 AM, a moment when interest in real-time economic indicators is heightened.
In reality, the first quarter’s GDP decreased by -0.2% compared to the previous quarter, and also showed a decline compared to the same period last year.
In addition, the gross domestic income (GDI) decreased by -0.4% compared to the previous quarter, increasing anxiety throughout the economy.
As such, top-level issues such as the global economic outlook, GDP analysis, overall trends in the Korean economy, market instability, and trade wars are captured at a glance.

2. GDP Calculation Process and Interpretation

GDP is announced as a flash estimate approximately 25 days after the end of the relevant quarter.
After about a month, a provisional figure is released, and then a final figure is released after another month; currently, we are at the flash estimate stage.
By using the quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year figures, short-term and long-term trends in the economy can be identified.
In this announcement, all items, including private consumption, government spending, construction and equipment investment, and exports and imports, recorded negative figures, raising concerns about overall negative growth.

3. Detailed Analysis by Economic Sector

◆ Domestic Demand Sector
– Both private consumption and government spending decreased compared to the previous quarter.
– Construction investment and equipment investment also recorded negative figures.
– In terms of domestic demand, wholesale, accommodation, and restaurant industries are already showing signs of a slowdown.

◆ External Demand Sector

Both exports and imports decreased significantly.
Imports decreased dramatically by -2.0%, which may make net exports appear positive, but overall, the weakness in external demand is severe.

◆ Industry-Specific Analysis

Manufacturing recorded a significant drop of -0.8%, and construction recorded -1.5%.
Most service industries, including accommodation, restaurants, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation, showed sluggish performance.
This imbalance negatively affects both domestic and external demand, foreshadowing a slowdown in future economic growth.

4. Future Outlook and Policy Issues

◆ Short-Term Outlook
– With the large decrease in the first quarter’s GDP, there is a high possibility that both domestic and external demand will remain sluggish in the second quarter.
– In particular, global trade conflicts such as the Trump-initiated tariff war and the U.S.-China trade war are expected to have a negative impact on external demand.

◆ Policy and Political Uncertainty

The government's insufficient economic stimulus policies, along with political uncertainties, are negatively affecting the economy.
The outcome of the upcoming tariff negotiations between the ministers of the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury could determine the recovery of the economy.

◆ Mid- to Long-Term Outlook

The Bank of Korea's existing growth forecast of 1.5% is expected to be challenged.
The IMF report also predicts that achieving a growth rate in the 1% range will be difficult, requiring policymakers to take swift action.

5. Summary Information

Real gross domestic product decreased by -0.2% compared to the previous quarter, and gross domestic income decreased by -0.4%.
In the domestic demand sector, private consumption, government spending, and construction and equipment investment all showed a downward trend.
Due to weak external demand and the impact of trade wars, both exports and imports decreased, and related industries, including manufacturing, construction, and services, showed an overall recession.
Short-term uncertainty, global trade conflicts, and political risks are expected to cause difficulties in the second quarter as well.
Based on all these key points, it is necessary to pay attention to issues related to future economic policies, the global economic outlook, GDP analysis, the Korean economy, market instability, and trade wars.

Summary

Both real GDP and gross domestic income recorded significant declines compared to the previous quarter.
Negative growth was observed in both the domestic and external demand sectors, with major industries such as manufacturing, construction, and services experiencing difficulties.
In particular, global trade conflicts, tariff wars, and internal political uncertainties are negatively affecting the overall economy, challenging short- and mid-term growth prospects.
Policy responses and the outcome of tariff negotiations are expected to be important variables in the future.

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

– [속보] -0.2% 역성장, 한국경제… 경기침체 시작인가? [즉시분석]

● **Mimic Millionaires’ Moves – Tony Robbins’ Wealth Blueprint**

Key Point: Small Fund Investments and Copying the Portfolios of the Wealthy Through Systematic Investing!

1. Getting Started with Small Fund Investments

Fund investment is not exclusive to wealthy individuals.
You can start with systematic investments of as little as ₩100,000, making it accessible to anyone.
By starting small and investing consistently, you can see results over time.

2. What is a Fund of Funds (FOF)?

Fund of Funds are actually included in the portfolios of the wealthy.
They refer to Fund No. 3, which is invested in by large asset holders such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
Simply put, the appeal is that we can copy the portfolios of the wealthy with small amounts.
Most of them are focused on domestic listed stocks but reflect investment strategies that consider the movements of foreign capital.

3. How to Access Through Public Funds

They are sold in the form of public funds, allowing small investors to participate.
Fund No. 3, where high-net-worth individuals invest like private equity funds, is operated in a public fund format.
This allows you to invest ₩100,000 at a time through systematic investing.
This is a good opportunity for investors interested in economic outlooks and fund investments.

4. Signing Up for a Fund Using a Brokerage App (MTS)

You can easily sign up through the brokerage app or MTS you are using.
Within the app, if you search for “Fund No. 3 FOF” or “Fund of Funds” in the fund search bar, related funds will appear.
You can select that fund and invest systematically in units of ₩100,000.
This process is not complicated, and it is a good way for us to copy the investment strategies of the wealthy.

5. Summary and Key Points

Fund investment, systematic investment, Fund of Funds, public funds, brokerage apps, etc.
All are easily accessible investment methods.
Providing an opportunity to start with a small amount and copy the portfolios of the wealthy.
Many funds are composed mainly of domestic listed stocks but also reflect foreign capital flows.
You can easily get started with investing by simply searching and signing up in MTS.
By approaching it this way through systematic investing, you can expect consistent investment effects every month.

< Summary >
Small fund investments allow you to participate in the wealthy's Fund No. 3 FOF with systematic investments of ₩100,000.
Fund of Funds are funds invested in by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds and are operated as public funds, making them accessible to everyone.
You can easily start investing by searching for "Fund No. 3 FOF" or "Fund of Funds" in the brokerage app (MTS) and signing up.
This article is centered around key economic keywords such as fund investment, systematic investment, Fund of Funds, public funds, and brokerages.

*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

– 거액의 자산가들과 똑같이 투자하는 방법 / 토니 로빈스 ‘부의 완성’ / 야식잡썰 EP.215

● Auto-Tariff Relief, Oil Price Dip

Latest Global Economic Outlook: Tariffs, Trade Negotiations, Trump’s Moves, and Energy Trends

Tariffs and Trade Negotiation Trends

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are tense.
Secretary Basset warned that high tariffs exceeding 100% are abnormal and lead to trade disruptions.
Both sides stated that trade negotiations could begin only if tariffs are mutually lowered.
Reports indicated that the Trump administration would reduce high tariffs imposed on Chinese products, but Secretary Basset denied this.
Ultimately, the U.S. is making subtle adjustments to meet the conditions for starting negotiations while maintaining the initiative.

Market Reactions to Fed Chair and Trump’s Moves

President Trump has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction and spoken about firing Fed Chair Powell.
Secretary Basset mentioned that the media created rumors about reviewing the possibility of dismissal.
These remarks eroded the early gains in the stock market and affected long-term interest rates and the dollar index.
In particular, investors’ sentiment seems to be contracting due to uncertain policy changes by Trump.

Meme Coin and Crypto Market Trends

News related to meme coins named after Trump is attracting significant attention.
After an explosive initial surge, it temporarily declined due to Trump’s remarks disassociating himself from it.
Subsequently, the news of a special dinner inviting the top 220 holders of the meme coin caused the price to soar again.
Meme coin-related events cause confusion in the market and clearly demonstrate Trump’s influence.

International Oil Prices and Energy Policy Changes

International oil prices fluctuate greatly due to geopolitical variables.
Oil prices are declining as Kazakhstan prioritizes its own interests over those of OPEC+.
Global conglomerates are involved in Kazakhstan’s oil production, and the role of U.S. capital is growing.
As a result, efforts to push energy prices upward are limited, and uncertainty in the global energy market is increasing.

Automobile Tariffs and Other Policy Movements

According to an FT exclusive report, the Trump administration is considering a plan to exempt some tariffs for automobile manufacturers.
Tariffs are used not as a simple objective but as a means to maximize U.S. interests.
Such a combination of cards may perpetuate uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook and trade negotiations.

< Summary >
Recently, trade negotiations and tariff policies have tightened due to Secretary Basset's remarks and Trump's actions.
Fine-tuning is needed between the conditions for tariff reductions and the conditions for starting negotiations, which affects major assets such as the stock market, dollar, and interest rates.
Trump's meme coin-related events and remarks are also causing ripples in the crypto market.
Meanwhile, various uncertainties, such as changes in Kazakhstan's energy policy and the U.S. automobile tariff exemption plan, are affecting the U.S. economy and international economic outlook.
Attention should continue to be paid to key news related to the economic outlook, trade negotiations, tariffs, Trump, and the U.S. economy.

[Related Articles…]
Latest Trump News
Latest Tariff Trends

*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]

– [홍장원의 불앤베어] 자동차 관세 추가 면제 가능성 열렸다. 국제 유가 하락 이유는.