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● U.S. Economy: Negative Growth, but Rebound!

Today’s US Economic Indicators, Trump’s Remarks, and the Current State of the Global Trade War

[1] US GDP and Stock Market Volatility

The US GDP figures released early this morning came out significantly lower than expected, causing an initial shock to the stock market.
Initially, the Nasdaq fell by -2~3%, but it has recovered over time and is currently at -0.97%.
The main factor behind the GDP decline was poor net exports.
The US is conducting large-scale imports, resulting in negative net exports.
This increase in imports is related to gold-related issues and Trump's tariff policy announcement in April.

[2] Consumption Indicators and the Fed’s Interest Rate Policy Outlook

The March Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a growth rate of 0.0%, similar to the previous month,
indicating the most stable results in the past year.
This indicator is an important statistic for the Fed when making interest rate policy decisions,
creating some expectations for an interest rate cut due to the flat situation.

[3] Q2 GDP Expectations and Hopes for Economic Recovery

The Atlanta Fed's Q2 GDP forecast is projected to rise from 2.4% to 4%.
Although it is early data for the second quarter,
the increase in GDP forecast serves as a factor to somewhat alleviate concerns about an economic recession.
Amidst mixed pressures of inflation and sluggish employment,
some expectations for a recovery in economic indicators are emerging, slightly easing market volatility.

[4] Global Trade War and News from China and Canada

China's export indicators are also at their lowest levels since the pandemic,
generally amplifying concerns about a global trade war.
Trucking disruptions were once an issue in China,
but recently, the situation has shown signs of a slight recovery.
In addition, direct dialogue is taking place with China regarding tariff negotiation issues with the United States.
Meanwhile, there is potential for more trade issues to arise between the US and its neighboring countries, such as Trump proposing a deal through a phone call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

[5] Trump’s Remarks and Political Pressure

Trump recently criticized the poor stock market and GDP figures, referring to it as "Biden's stock market" with his own words.
Interestingly, the fact that he already mentioned "Trump's stock market" a year ago is being revisited.
Furthermore, with Trump's approval rating showing the worst start compared to previous presidents,
political pressure is being directly conveyed.
These circumstances could lead to market uncertainty and political risks in the future.

< Summary >

The US GDP figures fell significantly below expectations, causing a sharp decline in the stock market,
but hopes for an economic recovery are being formed due to the stability of the core consumption expenditure index and the improvement in the Q2 GDP forecast.
Meanwhile, poor net exports, the global trade war, economic issues with China and Canada,
and Trump’s remarks and political pressure are adding to market uncertainty.
All of these analyses are summarized by comprehensively viewing major economic cases such as the global economy, GDP, stock market, interest rates, and trade war.

[Related articles… Analysis of Causes of GDP Decline , The Truth Behind Trump's Remarks]

*YouTube Source: [내일은 투자왕 – 김단테]

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