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● Putin’s Desperate Plea – Ukraine War имminently Decisive

2024 Russia-Ukraine War Status and Complete Summary of Future Global Economic Impact

This article provides a detailed chronological and thematic overview of the major developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, Putin’s desired end-of-war timing and strategies, the positions of NATO and Western countries, the role of the United States (especially former President Trump), and the points of practical agreement regarding energy infrastructure, and the subsequent impact on the global economy.
It easily captures the direction of war diplomacy, which may seem complex, by linking it to actual international finance, global industry, resource markets, energy security, and international cooperation issues, so you should read to the end.

1. Putin’s War Termination Strategy and Objectives

• Putin wants to effectively end the war as his victory before May 9, 2024 (Russian Victory Day). He seeks to declare ‘Russia’s victory’ to the international community and strengthen his domestic political position.
• In the current situation, both NATO and Ukraine are experiencing accumulated war fatigue, and Putin intends to be satisfied with securing occupied territories and transition to a ceasefire phase by this point.
• Since the goal is to maintain occupied territories, he aims to maximize Russian national interests without further Western sanctions and military consumption.

2. NATO, Ukraine, and Europe’s Fatigue Accumulation and Transition to Ceasefire Mode

• Both NATO and Ukraine are facing increasing burdens from the prolonged war.
• The West cannot easily concede victory to Russia due to the issue of Russia’s war crimes and the lack of justification for the invasion.
• However, international public opinion, financial consumption, inflation and energy crises in Europe are gradually shifting the weight towards a ceasefire.

3. Trump and US Mediation, and a Situation of ‘Ambiguous Agreement’

• Former President Trump (or if he reappears in the 2024 presidential election) may attempt initial direct ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
• However, Putin’s demands (recognition of occupied territories) are not easily accepted by Trump, and NATO strongly opposes them.
• Eventually, it shifts from a direct ceasefire agreement to a kind of ceasefire-mediation-negotiation framework.
• The main keyword of the agreement is ‘energy infrastructure.’

4. Energy Infrastructure, Strategic Stalemate in the Global Economy

• Russia and the United States (West) make initial contact through an agreement on ‘energy infrastructure’ instead of a ceasefire or complete end to the war.
• The West links the normalization of energy supply and the restoration of Russian infrastructure as compensation for the ceasefire.
• Putin believes that if only infrastructure and energy negotiations are conducted, Russia will be practically advantageous afterward.
  • Europe has high energy dependence, and Russia secures negotiation power with the pretext of suspending supply.
  • There are concerns about global supply chain tensions and the recurrence of inflationary pressures.

5. Future Prospects and Global Economic Impact

• In the future, the war is likely to end with an ambiguous agreement on the three axes of ‘ceasefire + energy + infrastructure.’
• In the short term, volatility will increase in the European energy market and international financial markets.
• Energy supply instability will continue to burden Europe’s prices and growth rates.
• In the medium to long term, there will be significant follow-up repercussions on global industrial supply chains, commodity markets, and each country’s diplomatic issues.

Detailed Summary by Key Issue

• War Ceasefire: Controversy over the price of ‘recognition of Russian-occupied territories and infrastructure restoration’
• Energy Security: Constant concerns about how much Europe will be ‘tied’ to Russian energy
• Global Finance: Uncertainty, entrenched inflation, and Eurozone economic slowdown variables
• Diplomatic Negotiations: US-Russia deals, divisions within NATO, Ukraine’s subjective dissatisfaction
• Resource Market: Continuation or deepening of the new Cold War structure between Russia and the West, including natural gas and crude oil

Conclusion from an Impact Perspective

• Temporary ceasefire pattern in the Russia-Ukraine war → Structural changes in the European-centered economic landscape begin in earnest
• The worst-case scenario of prolonged global resource market, international finance, and policy uncertainty remains
• It is time to pay attention to fiscal expansion + price + exchange rate volatility, and diversification of investment and corporate strategy is essential

< Summary >

Putin wants to end the war with Russia’s victory before May 9.
NATO, the West, and Ukraine are all tired and leaning towards a ceasefire, but direct termination of the war is difficult due to territorial issues.
In the end, there is a high possibility of a ceasefire centered on ‘energy infrastructure’ negotiations,
This will lead to prolonged uncertainty in the global economy (energy security, international finance, prices, industry, diplomacy).
Investment and policy should both prepare for volatility.

[Related Articles…]

• European Energy Crisis and Its Aftermath: What Should We Prepare For?
• How to Respond to Uncertainty in the International Financial Market?

*YouTube Source: [달란트투자]

– 한 달 내 결판날 러우전쟁 푸틴은 휴전이 고프다 #조한범 #러우전쟁 #러시아 #푸틴