Market Buzz: Buffett Out, Tech Up

● Buffett’s Retirement: No Netflix, Act Bold in Panic

2024 June Global Stock Market and Major Economic Issues Roundup: Tech Stock Rise, Tariff Relief Expectations, Interest Rate Issues, Trading Strategies, Warren Buffett Retirement, etc.

In today's post, we will systematically summarize the recent most important global economic key words and market sentiment, including:

U.S. stock market and tech stock short-term bullish trends,
U.S.-China tariff relief issues and changes in Wall Street investment sentiment,
Practical strategies from trading masters,
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman's remarks on interest rates and inflation,
Global interest rates and long-term bond yields,
Trump's cryptocurrency policy and behind-the-scenes efforts to attract Middle Eastern investment,
Warren Buffett's surprise retirement and succession structure.

Since the stock market never moves as expected, it is essential to understand the global macro perspective, expert trading, and policymakers' comments all at once. This article covers the necessary insights and practical keys, so it will be a great help to your stock/economic strategy.

1. U.S. Stock Market Status and Tech Stock Rebound

Leading tech companies such as Tesla, Google (Alphabet), and Nvidia are leading the stock price rally.
Wall Street’s investment sentiment is gradually recovering after the uncertainty of tariffs is eased.
In particular, the recent short-term rally (sudden rebound) is strongly characterized as a “relief rally after recognizing the bottom.”
It is still difficult to assess that the entire market has entered a full-fledged ‘bull market’.

2. Wall Street Strategists and Deutsche Bank Views

Deutsche Bank:
– The U.S. is a beneficiary of tariff cuts in the short term.
– Expect possible outperformance compared to the S&P500.
– However, maintains a cautious view that a fundamental rebound is difficult until the tariff issue is completely resolved.
– U.S. companies have a greater tariff burden than European companies, so substantial tariff cuts are needed in the long term.

Many Wall Street houses are increasingly betting positively on the U.S. stock market in the second half of this year.
However, after a short-term rebound, it is necessary to be wary of the possibility of a 'box range' and uncertainty.

3. Trading Expert Mark Minervini Strategy and Message

Mark Minervini (Wall Street’s leading trading master):
– This rally has limited profit-making opportunities as there are few good buying opportunities based on his strategy.
– Repeated entry and exit due to short-term volatility, similar to the traditional V-shaped rebound pattern.
– Similarly, in 2020, 2009, and 1995, there was a great sense of deprivation in the beginning, but explosive profits were realized throughout the year.
– Do not be disappointed if you do not make a profit in the early stages; rather, opportunities may continue to come.
– Point: Macro environment + market energy + quick trading centered on leading stocks, strict stop-loss and replacement are essential.

From Minervini's perspective, if you can catch the key leading stocks this year, the possibility of large profits in the second half of the year is still valid.

4. Fed Officials’ Remarks and Economic Outlook

Vice Chairman Jefferson:
– Trade policies and tariffs have worsened corporate sentiment, and some retailers are trying to raise prices.
– Inflation path is uncertain, and a short-term interest rate freeze is a prudent choice.
– Considering various factors such as economic conditions and supply chain conditions.

President Bullsby (Chicago Fed):

Companies/consumers are in cautious mode for investment and spending due to the impact of tariffs.
In the long term, the U.S. economy has solid fundamentals, and policies maintain consistency.
After the recent phase of tariff resolution, concerns about a recession within Wall Street have eased somewhat.

5. Global Interest Rate and Bond Market Trends

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%, and the 30-year yield approaches 5%.
– This has acted as a major global ‘economic outlook’ variable throughout the year.
– The market is buried in tariff issues and policy mentions, but it is possible that it will re-emerge as a risk at any time.

6. Trump’s Middle East Investment and Cryptocurrency Remarks

Trump visited Qatar and led economic news such as attracting investment.
In response to a question about cryptocurrencies, he mentioned, “The U.S. is actively pursuing it and must be ahead of China.”
He appears to be driving the cryptocurrency and AI industries as a dual engine of innovation.

7. Warren Buffett Retirement Interview and Greg Abel Succession Structure

Buffett, over 90 years old, formalized his retirement due to physical decline.
He highly praised his successor, Greg Abel, saying, “His energy level, decision-making, and management performance are all outstanding.”
Buffett emphasized the decisiveness and market responsiveness of investors.
“Stock prices always go up and down, but I’m not afraid. I just focus on the essence.”
He reaffirmed his basic investment philosophy by expressing his willingness to continue going to work in the future.

< Summary >

The U.S. stock market is slightly bullish, centered on tech stocks, and Wall Street sentiment is improving with expectations of tariff relief.
Experts say, "After a very short-term rebound, there is a possibility of a box range, and there will be greater opportunities in the second half of the year."
The Fed is cautiously freezing interest rates due to uncertainty about tariffs and inflation.
Rising long-term Treasury yields, risk variables remain.
Trump's cryptocurrency and AI strategy, Warren Buffett's retirement and succession stabilization are big news.

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