Putin’s Truce U-Turn: Russia’s Financial War

● Russia’s Desperate U-Turn

2024 Global Nuclear War Risk and Economic Outlook: Comprehensive Analysis of China-India Conflict, Ukraine-Russia War Situation, and Defense Industry Issues

Why You Must Read This Article to the End

This year, a key variable shaking the global financial markets and economy is the security risk that can erupt at any time.
This article includes:
– The escalating emotional conflict and actual possibility of nuclear war between ‘nuclear-armed states’ such as India, China, and the United States.
– The true state of the Ukraine-Russia war and the reality of combat troop attrition.
– The military-industrial structure centered on the US-China-Russia axis and the impact of war on the economy.
– Changes in the vast global economic landscape and market signals.
These three complexly intertwined issues are comprehensively summarized in a top-down manner.
Important content is listed chronologically so that the overall context is visible at a glance, and even insights that actually make money are extracted.

2024 Nuclear War Risk Issues by Group

US-China-India Triangular Structure

India and China are leading powers with nuclear weapons.
In particular, if one side suffers an ‘irreversible humiliation’ due to military operations or political mistakes recently, emotions can instantly erupt into explosive conflict.
If Prime Minister Modi is under political and military diplomatic pressure at the brink, or if China’s economy and security rapidly deteriorate, small incidents could escalate into full-scale conflict.
With public sentiment at its extreme, the ‘psychological threshold’ at which the nuclear button is actually used is approaching, as political will clashes with public opinion.

The Actual Structure of the Russia-Ukraine War

Many analyses say ‘Russian elite troops are still there’ and ‘weapons are unlimited’, but that is not true.
In the actual battlefield, the input of high-priced advanced weapons is rapidly decreasing.
The consumption of ammunition/weapons/troops is so great in the long war that it is difficult to input new weapons every day, and even the possessed nuclear/conventional weapons cannot be used unlimitedly.
Both Ukraine and Russia are reaching the limits of their regular army strength and industrial base.
Like the expression ‘Zelensky and Putin both want to cry’, a balanced ceasefire is not easy.

Industrial Infrastructure and the ‘Money-Only-Flowing’ Defense Market

Modern warfare is impossible for long-term attrition itself without industrial infrastructure.
Weapons are not produced indefinitely just by releasing capital (money) without sufficient production facilities (factories, etc.).
Eventually, money only erodes the supply chain, and the actual weapons and supplies are clearly limited.
This is directly related to global investment points such as the stock prices of each country’s defense industry, resource/commodity prices, and defense technology stocks.

2024 War and Global Economic Key Issues

Impact on Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inflation

In the event of an escalation of war risk, a strong dollar + risk aversion + a surge in volatility in treasury yields are predicted.
Military inflation, soaring raw material and energy prices, and additional stimulus packages by each government are occurring simultaneously in two flows: short-term stimulus and medium- to long-term fiscal instability.

Real Economy and Investment Strategy

Deepening global supply chain instability, strengthening the resilience of emerging economies.
Short-term surge potential for defense, energy, and resource-related stocks.
However, if an actual full-scale war or nuclear clash materializes, a ‘black swan’ may appear in the financial markets.

Chronological Summary – Big Picture at a Glance

Emotional infighting among nuclear-armed countries intensifies, approaching the threshold of actual nuclear war
Russia-Ukraine long-term war, exposing the realistic limits of war resources
Lack of industrial infrastructure in the war of attrition of weapons and resources, limited effect of influx of defense funds
Global financial markets, expanding uncertainty in interest rates/exchange rates/inflation
Investment strategy: Need to pay attention to defense/energy/raw material themes, essential to prepare for black swan in extreme cases

Key Words

Global economy, nuclear war, defense industry, inflation, investment strategy

< Summary >
The global economy in 2024 is seeing the realization of all-round risks, from emotional conflict between nuclear-armed countries such as India and China, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, and the reduced effectiveness of the defense industry due to the limitations of industrial infrastructure.
From security crisis → financial market shock → supply chain disruption → deterioration of the investment environment, it is essential to establish an investment strategy centered on defense/energy/raw materials and to have a means of defending against uncertainty.

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● CBDC Race- Libra Sparked Financial War

CBDC and Stablecoins: Who Will Dominate the Digital Currency Era?

From now on, we will systematically organize the current status of CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) development, specific strategies of major global banks, differences from stablecoins, safety measures in each country, cases of big tech’s market participation, and how all these changes will affect the global economy in the future. Complex and scattered news, you can grasp the essence with just this article!

CBDC Adoption Status: Why Are Countries Rushing Like This?

Recently, central banks around the world have begun to seriously consider adopting CBDCs. The core of this trend is not just adding another means of payment, but a strong economic strategy to secure global financial hegemony and financial stability.

General-purpose CBDC is being designed so that ordinary people can use it directly. The European Central Bank (ECB) is discussing limiting the holding limit of ‘digital euros’ to 3,000 euros, and the UK is considering a digital pound limit of 10,000 to 20,000 pounds.
The reason for setting a holding limit like this is because of the risk of deposit outflow from existing banks. If all citizens move their assets to CBDC, commercial banks’ deposits will decrease, and the entire financial system could be threatened.
On the other hand, wholesale CBDC is for transactions between large financial institutions, and here, more focus is placed on technical innovations such as system interoperability and programming functions (conditional payments, etc.) without limits.

The Rise of Stablecoins and Their Impact

The accelerated development of CBDC is largely due to the rapid growth of a new digital asset category called stablecoins. Major stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USDC are linked 1:1 to real assets such as the dollar and US Treasury bonds, and are rapidly expanding their market share in global payments and remittances.
Stablecoins are divided into asset-backed (linked to real assets such as the dollar) and algorithm-based (automatically adjusting market supply and demand), but due to volatility issues such as the Terra incident, most are currently focused on asset-backed.
From the US perspective, the spread of stablecoins is also noteworthy for its economic effects, such as increasing demand for Treasury bonds and strengthening the dollar’s status as a key currency.

CBDC/Stablecoin Regulation and Global Competition

In 2019, when Facebook announced that it would create its own stablecoin called ‘Libra’ (later DM), the G7 and G20 began discussing digital currency regulations in earnest.
The decisive trigger that made central banks in each country accelerate CBDC development was when a big tech company with 2.9 billion users was about to print money directly.
Although the Libra project was eventually suspended, the opening of the digital currency era has become an irreversible trend.

On-Site Application and Lifestyle Changes

Stablecoin payments have already become a reality in some commercial districts in Korea, such as Dongdaemun Market, and overseas.
As anyone can trade with digital assets even without a bank account, a paradigm shift is occurring in which the roles of existing banks and payment infrastructure are fundamentally changing.
The distribution of CBDC increases financial inclusion and transparency, and on the other hand, it is a strategic dimension for each country to not lose financial leadership in the global market.

Future Prospects and Implications

Accelerated adoption of CBDC is practically a signal of a “digital currency hegemony competition”
Full-scale power struggle between strengthening central bank power vs. private financial innovation
Stablecoins are also an important axis of digital currency, but require stricter regulation and management
There is a very high possibility that CBDCs will actually appear in everyday life within the next 2-3 years

< Summary >

CBDC is not just digital money, but a core asset in each country’s financial sovereignty and global hegemony competition
Parallel strategy to prevent bank deposit outflows through holding limit policies, etc.
The spread of stablecoins and the entry of big tech have provided a full-fledged spark for CBDC development in each country
Digital currency payment is already being applied in real life
Actual CBDC is expected to be fully introduced within the next 2-3 years, and it is essential to pay attention to market volatility and financial order reorganization