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● Tesla: Crisis or Opportunity?

JP Morgan’s Tesla Stock Price Forecast and Analysis of Future Growth Engines

For those considering Tesla as an investment, JP Morgan’s $115 target price may be shocking.
This article comprehensively analyzes why such a conservative outlook is emerging and what opportunities are hidden within Tesla’s true potential (electric vehicles, full self-driving, robots, AI innovation, etc.).
Additionally, we will chronologically trace the global economic trends surrounding Tesla and the changes in future market value.

Short-Term Outlook: Limitations of Electric Vehicle Popularization and Market Concerns

– Recently, global investment banks such as JP Morgan have significantly lowered their target prices for Tesla by evaluating it solely as an electric vehicle (EV) company.
– As the growth in electric vehicle sales, which was the core of Tesla’s performance, slows down, global economic uncertainty and intensifying EV competition are simultaneously highlighted.
– In particular, since 2024, increased price competition with major automobile brands such as BYD and Volkswagen in China and Europe, and reduced subsidies have weakened the momentum for revenue growth.

Mid-Term Engine: Accelerating Global Expansion of FSD (Full Self-Driving)

– The key point in Tesla’s growth story is FSD (Fully Self-Driving) technology.
– FSD beta testing is underway in France and Australia in 2024. If this is successfully expanded, expectations for expansion into European and Asian markets beyond the United States will increase.
– Self-driving technology changes the paradigm of the automotive market itself, providing Tesla with a foundation to grow from a simple finished vehicle manufacturer to an ‘AI-based mobility platform’ company.

Opportunity for a Leap in 2025: Commercialization of Robotaxi

– According to Tesla’s recent announcement, Robotaxi service is scheduled to begin in Austin, Texas in June 2025.
– Robotaxi is a new ‘service economy’ model that can generate added value beyond traditional car sales.
– It has the potential to reshape the market, leading to subscription-based, ride-sharing links, and data-based AI businesses.
– From this point (second half of 2025), it is possible to move away from the existing automobile stock valuation and converge to the stock price of a global AI/robot platform.

Long-Term Strategy: Potential of Optimus and AI Robots

– Tesla’s focus from the mid to late 2020s is on ‘humanoid robots (Optimus)’, which are currently in the early stages based on R&D, but demonstration services and on-site applications are expected to expand.
– Humanoid robots have the potential to be the protagonist of transforming the ‘job structure’ itself, beyond simple manufacturing to logistics, medical care, and services.
– If Tesla becomes a leading company in the fields of AI and robotics, it will have a completely different structural growth scenario from existing automobile manufacturers.

Conclusion: Will Tesla Seize Opportunity in Crisis, Like Apple in 2008?

– Tesla’s stock price is likely to be under downward pressure in the short term due to the EV market stagnation issue.
– However, it can enter a new ‘valuation level’ at each commercialization point of new businesses such as FSD, Robotaxi, and AI robots.
Just as Apple led the smartphone revolution with the iPhone 3G in 2008, there is a possibility that it will become a game-changer in the industry.
– Investors need a ‘market perspective’ that balances mid- to long-term growth engines rather than focusing solely on current short-term negatives.

Summary
JP Morgan's conservative outlook on Tesla's stock price reflects the sluggish electric vehicle market.
However, Tesla's full self-driving (FSD), Robotaxi service in 2025, and humanoid robot Optimus have growth potential beyond a simple automotive company.
The possibility of becoming a global market leader in the future AI, robotics, and mobility innovation is not over yet.

[Related Articles…]

• Tesla’s 2024 Stock Price Rebound Clue?
• How Far Have Global Companies Come in the AI·Robot Market Innovation?

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