New Trends in the Global Asset Market Seen Through Bitcoin Pizza Day

Bitcoin Pizza Day 2024, an event where two actual pizzas became worth ₩1.5 trillion.
On the same day, US stocks, bonds, and the dollar recorded declines, while the price of Bitcoin alone renewed record highs.
The trend of the rapid rise of global economic uncertainty, inflation hedge, and digital assets (Bitcoin) is becoming clear.
For future asset allocation, it is recommended to include some virtual currency, taking volatility into account.
Major economic keywords such as financial market crisis, weakening dollar confidence, digital asset investment, inflation defense, and portfolio diversification must be checked.

[Related Articles…]

• Bitcoin Investment Strategy and Risk Management
• US Dollar Weakness and Global Economic Impact

Bitcoin Investment Strategy and Risk Management
US Dollar Weakness and Global Economic Impact

*YouTube Source: [이효석아카데미]

● Stocks – Bull Run Continues

Reasons to Focus on Policy and Growth Stocks in the 2024 Global and Korean Stock Markets

Key Takeaways from This Article

– Explore how recent policy changes have triggered a surge in securities, dividend, and low PBR stocks.
– Analyze why changes in dividend income separate taxation and treasury stock cancellation systems are important.
– Understand the connection between aging, fiscal burden, and the stock market structure.
– Examine emerging trends in sectors such as construction and secondary battery stocks.
– Assess the impact of U.S. policies (especially Trump and Cent) on the global stock market.
– Summarize the outlook for policy stocks after the presidential election and highlight promising sectors like AI and technology stocks in the second half of the year.

1. Market Direction: Policy Changes Drive Movement

– Recent stock market activity shows short-term surges in previously undervalued stocks due to changes in dividend-related policies.
– Anticipation of separate taxation for dividend income and re-evaluation of low PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio) companies.
– Securities, financial, and construction stocks show alternating strength due to restructuring and expectations of policy benefits.
– Growth stock rebounds remain limited, necessitating a check of government support and global policy variables.

2. Tax and System Changes: From Dividend Income Tax to Treasury Stock Cancellation

Separate Taxation of Dividend Income
– Under the existing comprehensive taxation system, the burden of real taxes + health insurance premiums is very high.
– If policy changes increase separate taxation, dividend stocks become more popular, and dividend policies are expected to expand.

Discussions on Mandatory Treasury Stock Cancellation

• If treasury stocks are purchased and actually canceled, the per-share value increases.
• Currently, in Korea, treasury stock cancellation does not guarantee a reduction in the number of shares, and there are issues with indirect equity.
• Changes in commercial and tax laws are needed, and significant changes in shareholder value are expected when they become visible.

3. Understanding the Connection Between Aging, National Finance, and the Stock Market

– Entering the world’s first hyper-aged society, government spending (medical care, pensions, etc.) is rapidly increasing.
– Policy conflicts arise between the burden of tax revenue reduction (dividend tax system, corporate tax cuts, etc.) and the cost of aging.
– The government’s inability to actively execute finances is also very important in predicting changes in the stock market and policies.

4. Sector-Specific Trends: Industries and Stocks to Watch

Securities Stocks, Dividend Stocks, and Low PBR Stocks
– Short-term rally as beneficiaries of policy expectations.
– Investment momentum may vary depending on the realization of tax and system changes.

Construction Stocks

• Expected reorganization after restructuring.
• Potential benefits from real estate supply expansion and national project policies.
• Market reorganization is expected to center around branded companies.

Secondary Battery Stocks

• Recently, national strategic industries such as semiconductors and secondary batteries have been weak due to the economic slowdown.
• The importance of the global supply chain and the need for government support continue to be highlighted.
• A rebound centered on surviving companies is expected to have significant momentum.

Others: Cosmetics, Medical Devices, etc.

• Even if the economy slows down, industries with cost-effectiveness and K-brand capabilities are expected to be strong.
• Missha and other low-price + cost-effective Korean brands are emerging as factors in the U.S.

5. Global Policy Variables: U.S. Presidential Election, Deregulation, and AI

Trump/Cent Policies
– Focus on deregulation (especially AI, autonomous driving) if Trump shows signs of regaining power.
– The U.S. itself cannot bear an economic recession, so the possibility of inducing an artificial recession is low.
– Expansion of the role of aides such as Bresent, and refinement of policies are expected.
– Uncertainty is expected to be resolved in the second half of the year, leading to a high possibility of companies resuming investment.

AI and Technology Stocks

• Global fund movements: Expect medium- to long-term growth in innovative sectors such as AI amid the U.S.-China hegemony.
• In the second half of the year, the environment for technology and growth stocks will improve due to the effect of reducing policy uncertainty.

6. Are Policy Stocks Still Valid After the Presidential Election?

– The presidential election is a policy tool to lead future food and industry changes.
– Unlike the general election, the impact of actual budget and policy execution is significant.
– It is necessary to pay constant attention to policies and industries commonly mentioned in the market.
– Several candidates commonly emphasize AI, technology stocks, green industries, and national strategic industries.
– The rise of policy stocks is often a long-term trend, not a short-term one.

7. Investment Strategy for the Second Half of the Year: Need to Check Comprehensive Market Environment Changes

– Expect resolution of policy uncertainty and mitigation of global economic slowdown in the second half of the year.
– Investment environment for growth stocks is still improving (U.S.-China hegemony, AI innovation, etc.).
– When finding stocks, it is necessary to balance policy changes, global trends, and system change points.
– Do not think of stocks as difficult, but get stock ideas from changes in the world and common sense.

– Policy changes trigger rallies in dividend stocks, low PBR stocks, etc.
– System changes such as tax and treasury stock cancellation are positive for shareholder value.
– Interaction between aging, fiscal burden, and policy changes.
– Pay attention to policy and target industries such as construction, securities, secondary batteries, and AI.
– U.S. presidential election, possibility of growth stock rebound due to global deregulation.
– Investment direction for the second half of the year: It is important to balance policy, system changes, and global trends.

[Related Articles…]

• Are Real Changes Coming to Korean Stock Dividend Policies?
• Policy Stock Weather Map After the General Election: Perfect Analysis of Key Industries

*YouTube Source: [와이스트릿 – 지식과 자산의 복리효과]

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