---

---

● Tesla’s Optimus: Real, Not CGI

2024 Global Economic Outlook: Macroeconomic Trends, Key Country Changes, and Investment Points

This article summarizes all the key points you shouldn't miss in the '2024 Global Economic Outlook'.
With this single article, you can see everything from global macroeconomic trends to major country issues such as the US, China, and Europe, financial market risks, and global investment strategies to watch this year.
I will personally summarize the key points of the world economic flow, which may seem complicated, neatly.

Trends up to the end of 2023 and Changes in the Global Environment

– The global economy is recovering from the pandemic shock, but rising interest rates and inflation remain.
– Major countries in the US and Europe are implementing austerity policies → reflected in the real economy, putting pressure on growth rates to slow down.
– Expansion of geopolitical risks (Ukraine-Russia, Middle East conflict) → increased volatility in the energy and raw material markets.

Key Trends in the 2024 Macroeconomy

1. Changes in Interest Rate Policy
– The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has almost exhausted its capacity for further interest rate hikes.
– Expectations of a base interest rate cut in the second half are spreading, signaling improved liquidity in the financial market.
– Whether major central banks switch monetary policy is expected to determine the direction of the global economy.

2. Inflation and the Real Economy

   • Inflation is gradually easing, but stable entry into the 2% range is not easy.
   • Whether the rate of increase in real wages recovers and whether consumption and corporate investment momentum reignite is important.
   • Major developed countries are expected to avoid a recession, but low growth is likely to continue.

3. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market

   • Signs of a shift to a weaker dollar, with some emerging market currencies recovering.
   • Amid global economic uncertainty, raw material prices such as crude oil and natural gas are expected to fluctuate repeatedly.

Economic Outlook by Major Country

1. United States
– Growth Engines: AI, renewable energy infrastructure, and solid consumption remain.
– Risks: Debt ceiling issues, local commercial real estate market crisis lurking.
– Important turning point for the Fed’s policy shift to cut base interest rates.

2. China

   • Real estate cold wave remains, government seeks large-scale stimulus packages.
   • Expected to pursue policies that combine export slowdown and domestic demand activation.
   • Need to pay attention to the value of the yuan and the status of the global supply chain.

3. Europe (Eurozone)

   • Energy price stabilization, inflation calming down.
   • Possibility of easing austerity, damage to the labor market remains.
   • Uncertainty between economic recovery and low growth is likely to continue.

4. Japan/Emerging Asia

   • Interest in Japan escaping deflation for the first time in 30 years.
   • Emerging Asian countries (Korea, India, Vietnam, etc.) are expected to maintain recovery and growth in major manufacturing industries.
   • Beneficiary of supply chain diversification amid US-China conflict.

2024 Investment Points and Risk Management

1. Growth Strategy
– Technology stocks (especially AI semiconductors, eco-friendly energy, etc.) are strategically valid from a buy-on-dip perspective.
– Selective approach to emerging markets is necessary (beware of policy/exchange rate risks).

2. Risk and Hedge

   • It is essential to maintain a certain level of cash holding in a volatile market.
   • Maximize defensive performance through diversification of asset allocation (overseas stocks, raw materials, REITs, etc.).

3. Awareness of Policy Changes

   • Flexible response is necessary by checking changes in base interest rates/fiscal policies of each country.
   • Real-time monitoring of domestic and foreign geopolitical/political risks is essential.

Keywords Penetrating the Entire Global Economy

– Possibility of recession, interest rate conversion, inflation, investment strategy, geopolitical risk

2024 Annual Time Series Schedule

– First Half (January to June): Expectations for interest rate cuts, financial market volatility after confirming the bottom of the real economy.
– Second Half (July to December): Major countries’ monetary policy shifts, emerging market growth rebound, and expectations for investment sentiment reversal.
– Constant management of geopolitical variables and inflation risks throughout the year is essential.

2024 Global Economic Outlook Key Summary

– Strong monetary policy → expected to ease, inflation eases but low growth persists.
– Variables are geopolitical risks and US-China hegemony competition.
– Need to pay attention to structural changes and policies in the US, China, Europe, and emerging Asia.
– Investment strategy: Technology/eco-friendly, diversification, policy-aware, and hedge volatility/exchange rate/interest rate risks.

< Summary >
In 2024, the global economy overlaps low growth and geopolitical risks amid the trend of monetary easing and inflation easing. Pay attention to policy shifts in major countries such as the US and China, and growth momentum in emerging Asian countries. Diversification, technology stocks, and maintaining a cash holding are essential as investment strategies. Uncertainty exists, and real-time policy and risk checks must be performed.

[Related Posts…]

• Korean Economic Impact and Response Strategies due to Global Interest Rate Fluctuations
• 2024 World Economic Risks and Economic Growth Rate Outlook

*YouTube Source: [오늘의 테슬라 뉴스]

– 테슬라 옵티머스, CG 아닙니다!