● Fisher Dumps US Stocks, Buys This.

2025 Global Stock Market Outlook: A Complete Analysis of Camp Fisher & David Tepper’s Investment Strategies

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the investment strategy shifts of leading figures in global finance, Ken Fisher and David Tepper, for the first quarter of 2025. It covers their reasons for selling Big Tech and insights into recent interest rates and political turmoil. It also includes information about European stocks and U.S. value stocks.
We will explore how Camp Fisher suggests that political turmoil has historically provided the best investment opportunities, why U.S. stocks still have potential, and David Tepper's bold moves, including his short strategies for Chinese and climate ETFs.
We will explain investment rotation based on economic conditions, why Europe may be more advantageous than the U.S., and analyze investment performance during historical political and policy shocks.

Ken Fisher’s Buy & Sell Strategies for Q1 2025

– This quarter, Camp Fisher has been selling off the most U.S. large-cap growth stocks (Big Tech) and heavily betting on leading European value stocks.
– This shift is interpreted as the arrival of a rotation from ‘growth’ stock rallies in the early stages of a bull market to value stocks, suggesting that “the resolution of economic uncertainty → a shift to psychological optimism → the rediscovery of undervalued value stocks” is in effect.
– There are two reasons why Europe is seen as a bigger opportunity than the U.S.:
1) The European stock market structure itself is centered around finance and industry (value stocks).
2) Investment sentiment towards the European economy is excessively pessimistic compared to reality, meaning that even slight positive variables could trigger strong stock price rebounds.

Comparison of U.S. and European Economies, Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates, and Investment Environment

– The U.S. S&P 500 has a high proportion of IT and advanced growth stocks, while the MSCI Europe is dominated by financial and industrial value sectors.
– Major European countries have seen a clear reversal (normalization) of the short-term and long-term interest rate difference since early to mid-last year → Low short-term interest rates vs. high long-term interest rates drive bank lending and stimulate the real economy.
– Nevertheless, investment sentiment severely undervalues Europe, anticipating a ‘surprise’ effect compared to the past.

Historical Basis That Political/Policy Turmoil Is the ‘Greatest Opportunity’ for Investment

– Camp Fisher argues that over the past 50 years, political turmoil, policy mistakes, and economic uncertainty have all resulted in ‘strong buying zones’ for the stock market.
– Examples include the 1998 Russian/LTCM crisis + Clinton impeachment shock, and the 1974 Nixon Watergate/stagflation, all periods of economic shock + political scandal that were followed by rapid rebounds and the start of bull markets.
– In fact, many of Camp Fisher’s European portfolio stocks this year are significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s return (1.3%) (with some exceptions like BP).

David Tepper’s Strategy for Q1 2025: Selling China/Green ETFs, Shorting Large IT

– Tepper, who had previously made bold bets on Chinese stocks, has recently been rapidly reducing his exposure to China, including Alibaba/Pinduoduo.
– Instead, he is implementing a short strategy on the S&P 500 clean energy ETF (SPYX) and put options on Apple.
– The development of AI is leading to a surge in energy demand → doubts about the feasibility of green alternatives, shorting theme stocks with excessive valuations.
– Tepper also views U.S. stocks (especially Big Tech) as overvalued, similar to the period just before the dot-com bubble, and is taking a cautious, wait-and-see approach with both ‘long’ and ‘short’ positions despite the strong economy.

Conclusion: Political Turmoil and Fear Ultimately ‘Opportunity for Investors’

– Both Ken Fisher and Tepper emphasize that the extreme fear in the market, political scandals/policy mistakes, and economic uncertainty ultimately lead to an ‘overshoot discount’ in stock prices, creating the best buying opportunity for investors.
– They highlight undervalued value stocks centered in Europe, as well as the potential for a rapid recovery in the U.S. stock market after an overshooting decline.
– This period offers unmissable financial insights, including economic cycles, psychology, asset allocation, and global portfolio strategies.

< Summary >
Ken Fisher: This is a period when stock prices are falling due to political turmoil, but historically, such times have presented the best investment opportunities. Focusing on buying European value stocks instead of U.S. growth stocks. The European stock market is undervalued, and considering the normalization of short-term and long-term interest rates, there is plenty of room for further upside.
David Tepper: Partially liquidating Chinese stocks and pursuing a short strategy on green themes and large U.S. tech stocks. Diagnosing a cautious perspective, indicating entry into an overheated zone similar to the dot-com era.
Key Strategy: When political and policy turmoil is excessively reflected in stock prices, it is seen as a time to actively rebalance the portfolio.

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