---

---

● Temu’s Tariff Shock, Below 5% – A Breather

U.S. and Japanese Treasury Yield Declines, Global Stock Markets, and EU Tariff/Negotiation Issues: Real-Time Contextual Summary

1. Recent Treasury Yield Movements, Background, and Global Impact

– U.S. 30-year and Japanese government bond yields decline simultaneously.
– U.S. Treasury yields once fell to 4.95%, below the 5% mark, currently fluctuating near 4.97%.
– Japanese Ministry of Finance hinted at reducing long-term government bond issuance → Japanese government bond yields plunged.
– Expectations of reduced long-term bond supply lead to increased prices ↑ and decreased yields ↓, with a corresponding increase in U.S. Treasury purchases.
– The virtuous cycle improves investment sentiment in global risk assets and drives stock market gains.
– Despite recent concerns about U.S. Treasury yields breaking through 5%, short-term supply pressure eases, acting as a positive factor for the stock market.
– Adjustment of Japanese government bond issuance promotes relief rally in global bond markets and U.S. stock market.

2. EU Tariff Exemption Negotiations, Market Impact, and Future Uncertainty

– U.S.-EU tariff issues temporarily suspended. On the surface, intense confrontation without progress → creating an appearance of easing tensions.
– Trump, after announcing 20% tariffs, pressured to raise them to 50% → EU economy warns of declines in actual and next year’s growth rates (UBS analysis, etc.).
– Tariff conflict raises concerns about a second consecutive quarter of recession in the Eurozone, with a possible 8% adjustment in the STOXX600 index (Citigroup).
– Temporary suspension has a positive effect on Q2 economic indicators, but ultimately risks adverse effects in the second half of the year, such as decreased exports and inventory burden.
– U.S. strongly demands EU to reform consumption tax and abolish Big Tech regulations / EU insists on significant tariff reductions by the U.S. / Stalemate.
– Actual key negotiation points are ‘parallel,’ with observations that a settlement will be difficult for the time being (New York Times, etc.).
– EU proceeds with additional negotiations with China → Securing ‘leverage’ and developing a complex equation structure.
– U.S.-Europe-China tariff war, potential for re-ignition/resolution uncertainty maximized until early July.
– Tariff exemption provides temporary market relief, but structural risks remain unresolved, with uncertainty persisting.

3. U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Changes in Market Outlook

– Market expects a 97.9% probability of a rate freeze at the June FOMC meeting.
– July freeze is also projected at 75.6%, with some expectation of a rate cut in September (47%).
– Interest rate decision timing likely to be pushed back further depending on tariff negotiations and policy uncertainty.
– Fed officials also state “need to sufficiently confirm data and policy environment,” cannot definitively cut rates without clarity (comments from Neel Kashkari, etc.).
– Goldman Sachs and others are expanding their conservative view that interest rate cuts may be difficult within the year.
– Additional concerns about U.S. fiscal soundness (Trump administration tax cuts, etc.) and Moody’s credit rating downgrade pose potential risks to interest rate volatility.

4. Latest Economic Indicators/Corporate Issues: Durable Goods Orders, Temu, MicroStrategy

– U.S. Durable Goods Orders: Better than expected when excluding large fluctuations such as aircraft, positively impacting the stock market.
– Temu Operating PDD Performance Shock: Significant declines in net profit, EPS, and revenue, leading to a sharp drop in stock price.
– Partial repeal of U.S. ‘de minimis’ tariffs (non-tariffs below $800) expected, impacting simultaneous consumption contraction and performance in China and the U.S.
– Expansion of logistics networks within the U.S. aims to incorporate tariff costs, but short-term sacrifice in performance is unavoidable.
– On the other hand, MicroStrategy: Additional large-scale purchases of Bitcoin, reaching a market valuation return of 56%, driving a stock rally.
– In Bitcoin yield indicators, shareholder equity dilution is non-existent, even increasing → investment-friendly.
– JPMorgan and other traditional asset management companies also expect to increase the proportion of digital assets, signaling institutionalization and policy support.
– Securities firms are raising target stock prices, a positive trend amidst equity issuance issues.

5. Key Outlook and Investment Strategy Implications

– U.S. interest rates and bonds show short-term improvement due to Japanese issuance reduction hints, but the fundamental crisis remains ‘unresolved.’
– Tariff exemption provides a ‘short-term relief’ effect, but structural war is in stalemate… Pay attention to the ‘comprehensive judgment’ of negotiations before July.
– Interest rate cut expectations are lukewarm for both the market and the Fed… Uncertainty about implementation within the year ↑
– Digital assets (Bitcoin, etc.), institutional investment inflow and changes in investment portfolio strategy are becoming more widespread.
– Continuous monitoring of global policy variables and geopolitical tension index is essential.
– Prepare for ‘long-term perspective rebalancing’ during market short-term rebound periods… Volatility ↑ rapidly if issues arise.

< Summary >
Declining U.S./Japanese Treasury yields are short-term positive for stock market gains, but structurally, tariff conflicts between the U.S.-Europe-China, U.S. fiscal deterioration, and uncertainty about Fed interest rate policy remain fundamental risks to the market. Durable goods orders are better than expected, consumer platforms like Temu are impacted by simultaneous U.S.-China pressure, while Bitcoin continues to strengthen due to institutionalization expectations + institutional buying. The upcoming progress in tariff negotiations in July and the U.S. interest rate decision timeline are expected to be critical turning points.

[Related Articles…]

• When Will the U.S. Cut Interest Rates? In-depth Analysis of the Impact on the Market
• Global Tariff War Status and Investment Strategy Guide

*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]

– [美개장포인트] 30년물 다시 5% 아래로 훈풍ㅣ관세직격 테무 실적발표 충격ㅣ오찬종의 매일뉴욕