● Mexico Succumbs to China’s Money
Key Economic Issues at a Glance – From Trump’s Remarks to GDP Forecasts
1. Impact of Tariff Disputes and Trump's Messages
While the news of PC product releases was hot,
President Trump's initial message and his expressed intention to resume tariff disputes significantly impacted the market.
The four major indices remained flat during the day, and Bitcoin experienced a slight decline.
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield showed a downward trend,
Reminiscent of past concerns about tariffs leading to price increases and a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, providing a sigh of relief.
Currently, the tariff rate is maintained with a 90-day grace period,
Suggesting there is no immediate pressure for a sharp increase.
This encapsulates key issues such as global economic outlook, tariff disputes, and Trump.
2. Market Patterns and Trump's Weekend Actions
The pattern of President Trump raising tensions on Fridays
but then easing them over the weekend through messages, leading to a fresh start for the market on Mondays, has often been repeated.
Especially as discussions with China progress,
Momentum for resolving tariff concerns is at play.
Market participants are analyzing these patterns,
Confirming they are not significantly swayed by unnecessary fear.
3. GDP Forecast and GDP Now Atlanta Simulator Analysis
According to recent figures,
The U.S. GDP recorded negative growth in the first quarter, but
the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now simulator
forecasts that the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.8%.
The key fluctuating factor is net exports,
With the previously negative net exports turning significantly positive,
Contributing approximately 2.1 points positively to GDP.
Meanwhile, the outlook for real personal consumption and private domestic gross investment growth rates has slightly declined,
Indicating adverse effects due to uncertainties such as reduced corporate investment are also emerging.
4. Investment and Consumption Slump, and Trump's Economic Logic
Trump
strongly opposes the low 10-year average growth rate of 1.8% and
emphasizes the effects of his fiscal policies and tax cuts.
He argues that the U.S. economy can grow three, four, or even five times.
However, real-world data, apart from the rebound in net exports,
shows sluggish real consumption expenditure and private investment,
Suggesting the impact of uncertainty on the economy.
Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the balance between short-term overheating and long-term side effects.
5. Musk, Dogecoin, and Geopolitical Shifts in Latin America
Musk's farewell visit to the White House and
Trump's remark that "Doge is Musk's evil" are drawing attention.
The remarks from both sides are influencing digital assets such as the cryptocurrency Dogecoin,
While also causing a certain impact on investment sentiment.
Additionally, Latin America, especially Mexico and other Latin American countries,
are beginning to prioritize economic cooperation with China over the U.S.
This is interpreted as a side effect of the U.S.'s protectionist trade policies,
And is expected to act as an important variable in future diplomatic and trade strategies.
Summary
Global economic outlook, tariff disputes, Trump's remarks, GDP Now simulator analysis, economic cooperation between China and Latin America, etc.
- Analyzes market volatility due to tariff disputes and Trump's messages
- Introduces Trump's pattern of behavior on Fridays and weekends and momentum for resolving tariff concerns
- Explains the background for the increase in the 2nd quarter GDP growth forecast to 3.8% through the GDP Now Atlanta simulator
- Mentions economic uncertainty due to sluggish real consumption, investment, and side effects
- Analyzes the controversy surrounding Musk and Dogecoin and the changing sentiment of Latin America favoring China
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*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]
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