● Rate-Cut Hint.

Key Global Economic Issues at a Glance

[Tariff Controversy and Key Interview Points]

Secretary Bessent emphasized efforts to alleviate market concerns following President Trump’s recent remarks.
He conveyed a strong message regarding concerns about debt defaults, stating, “We will not fall into such a situation.”
Despite JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon’s warnings, he countered them based on the fact that Dimon’s predictions have never materialized in the past.
While acknowledging the concerns of bank practitioners, the Secretary emphasized their responsibility and expressed a clear stance on tariff issues.
These points cover the latest issues related to economic forecasts, trade, and tariffs.

[Trade Negotiations and U.S.-China Conflict]

Secretary Bessent and Commissioner Hesse expressed differing views on President Trump’s declaration of a 50% tariff increase on steel and legal risk issues within the U.S.
Both mentioned that existing tariffs remain in effect depending on the rulings of the Court of International Trade and the results of appeals.
There is anticipation that a phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will occur soon to resolve trade conflicts, leading to smooth negotiations.
China asserted its position of strong response, claiming the U.S. violated the agreement, and emphasized the need for mutual respect and equal negotiation.
In this process, keywords such as economic forecasts, trade, tariffs, and inflation play a crucial role.

[Fed and Tariff Impact Analysis]

Various tariff scenarios were analyzed through the statements of Chairman Powell and Christopher Waller, a candidate for the next Fed Chairman.
Under an average 25% tariff scenario, personal consumption expenditure and inflation may rise, while under a 10% tariff scenario, stability is expected without significant shocks.
Most committee members view the impact of tariffs as temporary, and it is explained that a tariff imposition of around 15% is ultimately expected.
Along with this, the possibility of a rate cut in the second half of the year is also mentioned, drawing attention to how economic forecasts, tariffs, and inflation will interact.

[Analysis of Company Performance and Trends]

Tesla is experiencing sales decline in some European markets due to increased steel-related tariffs and poor sales, but sales are soaring in Norway due to the delivery of the new Model Y.
Meta announced a plan to overhaul its AI-based advertising services, focusing on providing efficient advertising solutions for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Changes in the Android market are expected due to Google’s cooperation discussions with Samsung Electronics, which are putting short-term pressure on the stock price.
In the semiconductor sector, the U.S. is pursuing strong sanctions against Chinese companies, such as regulations on subsidiaries, which is expected to increase uncertainty related to semiconductors and trade.
Online sports betting companies such as DraftKings are negatively affected by the introduction of new tax bills, so caution is required.

[Other Major Issues and Future Outlook]

The impact of trade, tariffs, and expanded sanctions between the U.S. and China on the overall economy in the short term is being focused on.
According to the Fed’s tariff impact analysis, if tariffs act as a temporary factor, there is a possibility of a rate cut in the second half of the year, which may bring positive changes to the consumption and investment patterns of the overall economy.
It has also been suggested that additional measures are possible without tariff gaps based on various legal clauses (Trade Expansion Act Section 232, Trade Act Section 301, Tariff Act Section 338), requiring the establishment of response strategies according to policy changes.
The analysis of global economic flows centered on key keywords such as economic forecasts, trade, tariffs, inflation, and semiconductors is expected to have a significant impact on future investment and policy decisions.

Summary

Throughout the article, the remarks of Secretary Bessent and Commissioner Hesse, President Trump’s tariff increases and the resulting U.S.-China trade conflict, the Fed’s tariff impact analysis, and the performance trends of major companies such as Tesla, Meta, and Google are covered in detail.
It examines the short-term and mid- to long-term impact of tariffs and inflation on the economy, providing an in-depth analysis of the possibility of a rate cut in the second half of the year and global economic forecasts.
In addition, careful attention to policy and market changes is required through the challenges of specific industries such as semiconductors and online betting companies.

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Tariff Outlook Review
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*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]

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