● Trump-Musk Feud: Billionaire Brawl
Global Economic Outlook: Musk vs. Trump Conflict, Events Shaping the Economic Landscape from Financial Crisis to AI War
① May – Tax Cut Bill Announcement and Musk’s Fury
Republican tax cut bill is announced.
Electric vehicle tax credit period is shortened, impacting Musk’s business.
Musk’s anger reaches its peak as the role of eco-friendly subsidies in the solar and electric vehicle industries has been significant.
Concerns arise about the impact of this incident on Tesla and the broader U.S. economy.
② Late May ~ Early June – Musk’s ‘Black Eye’ Incident and Escalation of Conflict with Trump
News surfaces that Elon Musk has a black eye.
Musk explains that his son was playing around, but the conflict with Trump escalates at that timing.
The ‘Black Eye Club’ gains attention among conspiracy theories in the U.S., and the actions of key figures in politics, business, and religion begin to be questioned.
The situation becomes more complex as Musk reveals conflicts in the collision between past favors from Trump and reality.
③ Mid-June – Trump and Musk’s Public Clash, Epstein Card
Musk expresses anger, mentioning the political background he received support from Trump.
Trump strongly opposes Musk’s remarks and warns of subsidy cuts.
Musk’s statement hinting at the Epstein case and mentioning Trump’s list is akin to playing a risky card just before impeachment.
Both sides’ statements act as a significant turning point that can affect not only emotional confrontation but also politics and the overall economy.
④ Late June ~ July – China’s Trade Negotiations and Internal Conflicts, Financial Crisis
China eases external stress by proposing trade negotiations amidst rising tensions in the U.S.
Within the U.S., the personalities and conflicts of various figures in the Trump administration, as well as concerns about financial bankruptcy, are simultaneously highlighted.
Federal debt, interest rate hikes, and financial crises are likely to negatively impact future technology competition structures, such as the AI war.
Musk’s role is further emphasized in the cost-effectiveness competition of energy infrastructure, including solar power.
⑤ Changes in High-Tech and the Global Economy Resulting from the Conflict
The conflict between Musk and Trump has the potential to spread sequentially beyond a simple personal dispute to U.S. financial issues, trade wars, and even the AI war.
Without Musk, the U.S.’s high-tech competitiveness may be significantly impacted by China’s low-cost strategy.
China is eyeing an opportunity to dominate the global market with its cheap prices and overwhelming market share.
This situation can be a critical inflection point for both the U.S. and China, and it will greatly impact the global economic outlook.
⑥ Future Outlook – Impact on Politics, Economy, and Technology Overall
All of these events can be directly linked to political turmoil and global trade and financial crises in the U.S.
The Trump administration’s unstable financial management and changes in Musk’s role will bring uncertainty to the overall economy.
In the competitive landscape of key industries such as AI, space, electric vehicles, and solar power, keywords such as ‘Global Economic Outlook,’ ‘Financial Crisis,’ ‘Trade War,’ ‘Interest Rate Hike,’ and ‘AI War’ will become even more important in the future.
It is essential to meticulously analyze the causes and consequences of each event, as well as the repercussions that will unfold.
< Summary >
Events from the announcement of the May tax cut bill to Musk’s black eye and clash with Trump unfold sequentially.
Political strife intensifies through the Epstein card, and the possibility of a financial crisis, interest rate hikes, and trade wars within the U.S. looms.
China attempts to gain an edge in technological competition with the U.S. through trade negotiations and price competitiveness in this situation.
In the future global economy, the AI war, financial crisis, and trade war are expected to act as key variables.
[Related Articles…] Musk Conflict Situation Summary | China Trade Advance Summary
*YouTube Source: [Jun’s economy lab]
– 트럼프와 머스크의 갈등 배후를 생각해봤습니다
● Recession Risk, Markets Weigh In
2025 Economic Event Predictions and International Economic Outlook Through Polymarket
Polymarket Overview and Platform Features
Polymarket, a future prediction platform created by Shayne Coplan in 2020.
The platform is a market where investors directly bet money on future events such as economy, interest rates, and asset prices.
The important point here is that since real money is involved, prediction reliability and collective intelligence are reflected.
Probability data created by people around the world is gathered and used as an economic signal.
US Economic Outlook and Recession Prediction
Currently, Polymarket assesses the probability of a US recession at 28%.
In the past, it was close to 70% due to concerns about tariffs, but the prediction has significantly decreased after the situation stabilized.
In other words, investors today see the US economy as relatively robust.
Fed Interest Rate Policy Outlook
At the June meeting, 96% of participants bet on a freeze in interest rates.
The probability of freezing interest rates at the July meeting was 79%, and the possibility of a rate cut was 19%.
At the September meeting, the probability of freezing interest rates was 57%, but betting on a rate cut increased to 39%.
It is impressive that it shows a difference from the FedWatch prediction.
Overall, the possibility that the Fed will attempt to change interest rates within this year is predicted to be somewhat low (currently Yes 71%).
Long-Term Interest Rate and GDP Outlook
In the question regarding the US 10-year Treasury yield, the probability of progressing above 5% is assessed at 4%.
Concerns about short-term price increases and long-term interest rate increases due to tariff issues were mentioned, but a stable appearance is expected rather than extreme changes.
Meanwhile, in terms of economic growth, 75% of market participants’ confidence is focused on the prediction that the US GDP growth rate will be above 2%.
This can be seen as a positive signal for investment strategies that view the US economy as strong and interest rate outlook.
Gold Price Outlook
In Polymarket, the price of gold on December 31, 2025, is overwhelmingly predicted to be above $3,200.
As such, the proportion of investors who trust gold as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty is steadily increasing.
This information can be an important asset allocation point when establishing investment strategies.
2025 Economic Event Analysis Summary
Based on the international economic outlook that economic experts are talking about and the data that investors directly bet money on and predicted in Polymarket, the US economy, Fed interest rate policy, long-term interest rates, GDP, and gold price outlook are organized in chronological order.
The market’s collective intelligence on the possibility of a recession in the US economy, betting on interest rate freezes/cuts at Fed meetings, and long-term asset prices are detailed at each point in time.
The data organized in this way includes keywords optimized for SEO such as international economic outlook, Polymarket, interest rate outlook, economic signals, and investment strategies, and helps readers get direct investment ideas.
Summary: Regarding the prediction of economic events in 2025, the possibility of a recession in the US economy is assessed as low at 28% in Polymarket.
Most of the Fed’s June and July meetings bet on a freeze in interest rates, and some forecasts of a rate cut also appear in September, but a freeze is still dominant.
Regarding US 10-year Treasury yields and GDP growth, stability is expected rather than extreme changes, and the price of gold is predicted to be above $3,200, which acts as an important economic signal for investment strategies.
[Related Articles…]
Latest Trends in Polymarket Analysis
Fed Interest Rate Outlook and Economic Signals
*YouTube Source: [Maeil Business Newspaper]
– 2025 경기침체 과연 올까? 폴리마켓이 보여주는 시장의 분위기 | 불앤베어 포커스
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