Trump’s 2025 Currency War

● Currency War Looming, Trump’s Exchange Rate Strategy.

Mid-2025 Exchange Rate and the Possibility of a Second Plaza Accord Analysis

1. Mid-2025: The Beginning of Exchange Rate Volatility

As the dollar flow continues, exchange rates begin to fluctuate in mid-2025.
The currency values of each country are moving dynamically according to the weak dollar flow in the United States.
China shows little change in exchange rates, while Japan and Korea show different patterns.
Although the government and the media say that there is no strong exchange rate war or pressure to appreciate the won,
In reality, the exchange rate is highly volatile due to various variables.

2. U.S. Debt and Treasury Bond Issues: Inherent Constraints

The U.S. has $36 trillion in treasury debt and a growing deficit.
The deficit is expected to nearly double from about $1.8 trillion in 2024 to 2030.
In this situation, a strategy to respond through the sale and purchase of treasury bonds is emerging as an important topic.
Treasury bonds and exchange rates are closely linked, with changes in treasury bond rates affecting the value of the dollar.
In other words, the United States is expected to try to induce a weak dollar through strategies related to treasury bonds.

3. Second Plaza Accord and New Exchange Rate War Strategy

It seems difficult to use the same method as the Plaza Accord in 1985.
Instead, the United States is likely to employ a package strategy such as buying treasury bonds and easing tariffs this time.
For example, it is an approach to stabilize exchange rates and treasury bonds by simultaneously resolving treasury bond purchases and tariff issues in negotiations with the UK.
This strategy is expected to proceed in a different way from the traditional exchange rate war.
Therefore, a series of movements called the Second Plaza Accord may appear in the second half of 2025.

4. Power Game between Countries and Response Strategies

The United States plans to lead inter-state negotiations by using exchange rates, treasury bonds, tariffs, and security at the same time.
Interestingly, the United States may not disclose the exchange rate war, but proceed with requests for treasury bond purchases or negotiations under the surface.
Each country needs to reorganize its diplomatic and economic strategies in response to these moves by the United States.
The UK is already responding to tariff adjustments and treasury bond purchases, and Japan, Korea, Taiwan, etc. are also preparing in their own way.
China will be able to endure relatively independently, but other countries may have to share security and financial burdens.

5. Market Reaction and Future Prospects

In the market, exchange rates are difficult to predict due to many variables, but
Dynamic movements between U.S. policy changes and treasury bonds and dollar weakness will continue.
The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by credit rating agencies is also contributing to this instability.
Experts emphasize the U.S. treasury bond strategy and diplomatic moves rather than strong pressure in the short term.
They say that attention should be paid to future market unrest and the international exchange rate war.

Key Economic Keywords: Exchange rate, treasury bonds, Plaza Accord, U.S. debt, weak dollar

< Summary >
Exchange rates began to fluctuate in mid-2025. As U.S. debt and treasury bond problems grow, an exchange rate war different from the 1985 Plaza Accord may unfold.
The United States is trying to induce a weak dollar by using treasury bond purchases and tariff adjustments, and each country must adjust its economic and diplomatic strategies accordingly.
In the future, the market will move dynamically depending on various variables, and international power games and the U.S. treasury bond strategy are expected to be the main variables.
</ Summary>

*YouTube Source: [경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV)]

– 2025 하반기 환율 전쟁 시나리오, 트럼프의 ‘환율 게임 전략’이 보인다 | 심층토론 – 김대호,노영우 4편

● Fujian’s West Sea Incursion, Korea’s Concerns

Chinese Fujian Ship Navigates the West Sea: Electrification and Strategic Shifts

1. China’s Final Stages of Electrification and Operation of the Fujian Ship

As China enters the final stages of electrification, the Fujian ship has reportedly entered trial navigation in the Korea-China Provisional Measures Water.
The Fujian ship holds more than just simple training significance; it is an aircraft carrier equipped with the latest electromagnetic catapults and advanced carrier-based aircraft operation systems.
This demonstrates significantly superior technology compared to the existing Ning Ship and Shandong Ship, and it is expected to dramatically improve the combat sustainability of the Chinese Navy.
Chinese military authorities are paying close attention to this and it is interpreted as having secured an electrification base.

2. Maritime Training Conducted in the West Sea PMG Area

China designated a portion of the West Sea PMG area as a navigation prohibited zone from May 22nd to 27th and conducted maritime training mobilizing the Fujian ship.
Through this, China is expanding the scope of the aircraft carrier’s activities to the high seas near the Korea-China median line, revealing its intention to deliver a military message.
In particular, the possibility of a next-generation stealth aircraft J35 ejection test at the Yangtze River estuary on May 21st, just before the training, is being raised, and it is interpreted as a signal to enter the final stage of electrification.
Along with this, China has already secured the Fujian ship following the Liaoning ship and Shandong ship, solidifying its steps towards the goal of nurturing an ocean-going navy.

3. Strategic Intent and Reorganization of Maritime Security

The Fujian ship plays a pivotal role in maritime strategic concepts such as blocking the Taiwan Strait, blocking the U.S. Navy’s reinforcement forces, and pressuring Japan and U.S. military bases, going beyond its role as a simple aircraft carrier.
This heralds strategic changes related to the global economic outlook in that it could bring a significant inflection point to the maritime security landscape including the East China Sea and the West Sea.
The operation of the Fujian ship as a strategic, technological, security, and political symbol is directly linked to the best economic prospects, and it is expected to cause significant repercussions in electrification, maritime security, and international affairs.
China’s expansion of naval power is a global issue intertwining economy and military strategy, and it is expected to serve as an important variable in the future international economic outlook.

< Summary >
The fact that the Fujian ship is entering the final stage of electrification through maritime training in the Korea-China Provisional Measures Water.

China's expansion of the scope of aircraft carrier operations reveals its intention to reorganize military messages and maritime security.

Strategic plans such as the possibility of a next-generation stealth aircraft J35 ejection test and blocking the Taiwan Strait and U.S. Navy reinforcement forces are emphasized.

These changes indicate that China's electrification, maritime security, and aircraft carrier strategy are key variables in the global economic outlook.

</ Summary >

Chinese Fujian Ship Navigates the West Sea: Electrification and Strategic Shifts

Electrification Entry

China’s Fujian ship is entering the final stage of electrification through trial navigation in the Korea-China waters.
Equipped with the latest electromagnetic catapults, the intention to strengthen technology as an aircraft carrier and reorganize maritime security is revealed.

Maritime Training and Strategic Message

Expanding the scope of the aircraft carrier’s activities and delivering military messages through maritime training conducted in the West Sea PMG area.
Attention is focused on the impact of global economic prospects and changes in China’s aircraft carrier strategy on maritime security.

Symbol of Strategy, Technology, and Security

The Fujian ship is not just a military force but a key axis for carrying out various strategic tasks such as blocking the Taiwan Strait and blocking U.S. Navy reinforcement forces.
China’s expansion of naval power is an important variable in global strategic leaps and economic prospects.

Reorganization of Maritime Security and Global Economic Outlook

*YouTube Source: [서울경제TV]

– 중국 ‘푸젠함’, 드디어 서해로… 韓 앞바다에서 뭘 노렸나?

● Cash Handout?, Japan Politics

Japanese Ruling Party Considers Cash Support for All Citizens Ahead of Upper House Election – Comprehensive Summary

1. Background of Cash Support Policy and Election Strategy

Recently, the Japanese government and the ruling party are considering providing direct cash support to citizens ahead of the Upper House election.
This is interpreted as an election strategy aimed at alleviating the burden on people’s livelihoods due to high prices and seeking short-term populist effects.
While the opposition party has advocated for a consumption tax cut, the ruling party intends to win public sentiment through support for all citizens, regardless of income.

2. Concretization of Support Scale and Target

The Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito are considering cash support ranging from 20,000 yen to a maximum of 50,000 yen per person.
The recipients are likely to be set as all citizens, regardless of income.
There are internal conflicts regarding the amount of support, inclusion of high-income earners, and speed of administrative processing in policy implementation.

3. Budget and Funding Procurement Plan

The funds for cash support are expected to be secured from the surplus in tax revenue, which is larger than expected last year.
The expected surplus in tax revenue is in the trillions of yen, and can be adjusted depending on the economic situation and policy implementation.
Along with this, internal coordination within the executive branch regarding funding procurement necessary for policy implementation is important.

4. Debate on Long-Term Economic Goals and Policy Effects

Within the Liberal Democratic Party, cash support is seen as an easy card to compensate for the absence of representative pledges.
Meanwhile, Governor 20shi-Kei presented a mid- to long-term economic vision to increase Japan’s nominal GDP to over one quadrillion yen and the national average income by more than 50% by 2040.
As there was a precedent where a similar support plan in April was scrapped due to controversy over populism and opposition from the opposition party, concerns are also being raised about the effectiveness and sustainability of this policy.

5. Future Prospects and Key Issues

The effectiveness of the policy depends on the method of cash support implementation, discussions on expanding the scope of support, and how quickly administrative processing is carried out.
Before the Upper House election, the public’s reaction will determine whether this policy will act as a political gamble or remain a short-term populist policy.
Economic outlook experts analyze that continuous interest is needed focusing on key SEO keywords such as the Japanese economy, cash support, public welfare measures, policy analysis, and tax revenue issues.

< Summary >
The Japanese ruling party is focusing on reviewing a cash payment plan of 20,000 yen to 50,000 yen per person to citizens ahead of the Upper House election.
While the opposition party advocates for a consumption tax cut, there is a high possibility that support for all citizens will be promoted with the goal of overcoming high prices and winning public sentiment.
The funds will be prepared from the surplus in tax revenue, which is larger than expected last year, and there remain questions about the effectiveness of the policy as previous similar policies were scrapped due to controversy over populism.
In addition, the Liberal Democratic Party is paying attention to the sustainability of policies and economic growth by presenting a mid- to long-term plan with the goal of increasing Japan's nominal GDP and national average income by 2040.

*YouTube Source: [서울경제TV]

– “일본 정치 동향 분석 전국민 대상 현금 지원?” #일본 #정치 #전국민 #현금 #지원