● September Market Outlook Index Sideways, Stocks Rotate Amidst Rate-AI-Geopolitics Risks

September Market Start: ‘Index in a Box Range, Stocks in Rotation’ — Practical Response Roadmap Amidst Interest Rates, AI, and Geopolitical Risks

Here’s the starting sentence:The core of this article (5 decisive points not often found in other news):1) The “Investment Dual Structure” where the index itself barely moves, but leading stocks (like Nvidia) experience 10%+ fluctuations.2) More important than superficial negative news is the re-acceleration of money supply and money velocity (Fed data) — the quality of liquidity is changing.3) Japanese and European (France, UK) interest rate and political issues are likely to act as “localized absorption of capital flows,” increasing volatility in September-October.4) China’s AI and semiconductor self-reliance news is likely to remain effective only as a “psychological/pumping” factor for the time being, due to slow conversion to the real economy.5) Practical trading method: ‘Dollar-cost averaging + stock selection (underperforming big tech and cyclical stocks) + maintaining cash position’ is the optimal strategy.

Below is an analysis and practical checklist organized chronologically (recent → short-term schedule → second half outlook).Key keywords such as US stock market, interest rate cuts, AI stocks, Nvidia, and September correction are reflected throughout the text.

1) Key Market Trends Recently (August ~ Present) — What Has Already Happened

Discrepancy Between Index and LeadersThe S&P 500 index has remained almost in a box range (±1-2%) on a weekly basis.However, AI infrastructure (Nvidia), crypto-related stocks, and some high-growth stocks have seen corrections of over 10% from their highs.In essence, an investment dual structure has been formed where ‘the index is stable → leaders are experiencing increased volatility.’

AI and Nvidia-Related PhenomenaSince the ‘DeepSeek (Chinese Generative AI) Shock’ in January, AI infrastructure stocks like Nvidia have experienced significant corrections when momentum fades or negative news emerges.Since August, due to announcements like Alibaba’s development of its own chips, the ‘China self-reliance’ narrative has gained traction, leading to some global capital reallocation.While Nvidia’s fundamentals (earnings) remain strong, short-term corrections are rational due to expectations of slowing growth and “high expectations.”

Cryptocurrency and Related StocksCrypto-related stocks have also seen a concurrent correction.This is a typical pattern where overheated sectors correct first in a situation of limited liquidity.

Sector RotationMeanwhile, underperforming sectors like cyclical stocks, commodities, and defense have been rising in a “rotation” of funds.This signals that as long as aggressive interest rate cuts are not implemented, a “limited capital → rotation” phase will continue.

2) September Risks Through Historical Examples (Why is September Sensitive?)

Seasonal PatternsHistorically, September and October are months of high volatility.The tendency for the first half (e.g., April) and the second half (e.g., September) to fluctuate due to economic indicators and political events has been a recurring pattern.

Global Interest Rate and Political Events (Short-Term Calendar)France: Re-election vote on September 8th (potential impact on government stability, national debt, interest rates, and stocks).Japan: Uncertainty surrounding the BOJ and the bond market (potential absorption of global liquidity through interest rate differentials).UK: Fiscal and interest rate issues are being re-emphasized.US: Fed-related indicators (employment, inflation) even after Labor Day can serve as short-term catalysts.

Conclusion: In September, there is a high probability of short-term volatility expansion due to exogenous variables (European and Japanese political/interest rate issues), rather than a “prolonged adjustment.”

3) Most Important Points Not Well Discussed Elsewhere (Exclusive Perspective)

Meaning of Re-accelerated Money Supply and Money VelocityRecent Fed announcements on monetary statistics show that the “speed of money distribution” has accelerated again (monthly statistics show an increase).This signifies not just “excess liquidity,” but a change in the “quality (speed and distribution) of liquidity.”Therefore, even without immediate interest rate cuts, it first impacts specific sectors (leverage, energy, cyclicals, etc.).This point is a crucial variable that most reports overlook by focusing solely on “interest rate outlooks.”

Localized Absorption of Capital (Interplay of National Interest Rates)The rebound in interest rates in Japan and Europe can temporarily absorb global surplus funds.In particular, the normalization of Japanese interest rates can trigger yen-related capital flows instead of dollar liquidity, weakening the “US stock market liquidity buffer.”In other words, volatility can increase solely due to “capital movements” even without domestic US negative news.

Reasons for a Strong Index but Weak “Individual Leaders”Institutions, for portfolio risk management, maintain large ETFs and indices while reducing leveraged and single-leader positions.Consequently, this “structural investment phenomenon” continues, where the index is maintained but leading stocks are shaken.

4) Checkpoints by Timeline (Short-term → Medium-term)

Short-term (This Week ~ Mid-September)Monitor news related to the French re-election vote (9/8) and Japanese bonds.Broadcom earnings (expected catalyst for re-evaluation of technology/AI infrastructure).Apple new product announcement (9/9) — can determine the direction of rotation within big tech.

Medium-term (Late September ~ After FOMC)Fed indicators (employment, CPI) will influence the interest rate cut schedule.If the Fed’s easing signals are further delayed, “small/mid-cap and high-growth stocks may experience additional corrections.”

Long-term (Year-end)Once the interest rate cut cycle begins in earnest, there’s a possibility of a year-end rally due to liquidity recovery.However, until then, “corrections are likely to be opportunities” — though timing is unpredictable.

5) Practical Positioning by Sector and Stock (Specific Recommended Actions)

Direction: ‘Maintain the Index, Strengthen Risk Management’Maintain Cash Position: Secure 10-20% of average positions in cash.Dollar-Cost Averaging (Preparing for September Correction): Recommended for leading stocks (DCA) — 3-5 months of dollar-cost averaging.

AI Infrastructure (Nvidia, etc.)Attractive from a long-term holding perspective.Short-term: High volatility in a phase where earnings momentum has ended; avoid excessive leverage.Maintain Nvidia as a core position, but for new entries, use dollar-cost averaging.

Big Tech (Alphabet, Apple, etc.)Alphabet has potential for re-evaluation through new technologies like NanoVPN.Apple: Strategic approach around the new product event (sustained demand driven by product expectations).

Cyclical, Commodities, DefenseEffective as defensive alternative positions during a rotation phase.Defense and commodities, in particular, react quickly to geopolitical events and demand recovery.

Chinese Tech (Alibaba, etc.)High potential for short-term pumping, but risks (policy, listing, accounting) exist.Consider “thematic exposure” through ETFs rather than long-term investment (essential risk management).

ETF UtilizationCan diversify risk through ETFs such as Chinese Tech ETFs, Cloud/AI ETFs, and Commodity ETFs.

6) Risk Management Checklist — Practical Rules

Position Sizing: Recommended 3-7% of the portfolio for individual stocks.Stop-Loss: Rule-based rather than psychological (e.g., partial liquidation at 8-12% loss).Cash Envelope: Secure 10-20% cash for additional purchases during September corrections.Leverage Limitation: Leverage products are recommended for 1) short-term trading only, 2) less than 5% of the total portfolio.News Filtering: Differentiate between ‘policy-related PR (e.g., China chip development)’ and ‘real-economy conversion (supply/demand)’ — prioritize the latter.

7) Trading Signals (Entry, Exit, Retirement) — Specific Quantitative Criteria

Buy SignalFor leading stocks experiencing corrections: Consider dollar-cost averaging if down 15% or more from the high.For aggressive buying: Consider if the index falls 5% or more and money velocity indicators slow down.

Sell/Reduce SignalWhen news confirms ‘deterioration in earnings/demand’ (e.g., downward revision of earnings guidance).Rapid interest rate hikes (shock of 50bp or more in a short period) or rapid absorption of liquidity.

Retire (Stop-Loss) SignalImmediate exit upon discovery of structural fundamental collapse (e.g., delisting risk, accounting fraud).

8) Finally — Investor Mindset and Opportunity Recognition

While the index may only fluctuate slightly, the “swings in leaders” create good buying opportunities for investors.September’s volatility can be a cause for fear, but it also holds the potential to be a good buying period for a year-end rally.Therefore, ‘holding cash + a dollar-cost averaging plan + understanding sector rotation’ are key.Specifically, by closely watching money supply, money velocity, and the interest rate dynamics between countries (Japan, Europe), one can capture opportunities with a different perspective.

< Summary >

The market is in a “dual investment structure” where the index is in a box range, but leaders are significantly fluctuating.The re-acceleration of money supply (money velocity) and interest rate/political issues in Japan and Europe are key factors increasing September volatility.The long-term story for AI stocks like Nvidia remains valid, but short-term corrections are likely, so dollar-cost averaging and maintaining cash are recommended.China’s AI and chip news has a high potential for psychological pumping, so the conversion to the real economy must be strictly evaluated.Practical rules: Manage position size, dollar-cost average, minimize leverage, and adhere to clear stop-loss rules.

[Related Articles…]US Stock Market in September: Summary of Correction Possibilities and Year-End Rally Preparation StrategyWhen Interest Rate Cut Signals Appear: Positioning and Recommended ETFs Summary

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– The season has begun, vulnerable to negative news. Could this be a golden opportunity for the US …

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● Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signals conditional rate cuts, but Fed independence concerns risk dollar’s global role, potentially restructuring reserve assets.

Powell’s Final Jackson Hole Speech: Shockwaves on Fed Independence, Signals for Rate Cuts, and the Shifting Status of the Dollar — 5 Key Takeaways from This Article

This article delves into the Federal Reserve’s shift in risk balance (inflation to employment), the substance of Powell’s “conditional rate cut” signals, the structural impact of a weakened Fed independence on the dollar and safe-haven demand, hidden risks overlooked by the market (stablecoins, multilateral settlements, corporate finance changes), and investment/policy directives and path-dependent scenarios.

We provide a particularly deep analysis of “how the erosion of Fed independence alters the structure of private and national reserve assets (resilience),” which is often overlooked by other YouTube channels and news outlets.

Centering on key SEO keywords like Fed, rate cuts, dollar, monetary policy, and inflation, we organize the content based on observable indicators and time series (short-term, medium-term, long-term).

1. Now (Immediately After Jackson Hole) — Key Messages and Immediate Impact of Powell’s Speech

Powell clearly conveyed the message at Jackson Hole that “the balance of risks has shifted from prices to employment.”This signals that the Fed has begun to prioritize employment shocks over inflation.Powell emphasized “conditional flexibility” multiple times, rather than simple optimism.This means the baseline view is that short-term increases in core goods prices (tariffs, supply factors) are temporary, but if employment deteriorates nonetheless, rate cuts will be considered.The Fed’s target neutral rate was still presented as around 3%, indicating a remaining journey to that level from the current federal funds rate (e.g., ~4.5%).The immediate market reaction was “rising expectations for rate cuts → weaker dollar, increased volatility in US Treasuries → preference for risk assets.”However, Powell simultaneously kept the possibility of flexibility in average inflation targeting open, warning that an immediate shift to tightening could occur if inflation re-ignites.

2. Monetary Policy Mechanism (Basics) — The Phillips Curve and the “Two Rabbits” Rule

Monetary policy fundamentally manages the trade-off between inflation and employment (unemployment rate).Interest rate hikes suppress demand, lowering inflation but potentially worsening employment.Conversely, rate cuts stimulate investment, improving employment but potentially fueling inflationary pressures.Powell’s speech formalized the judgment that “employment risks are greater now,” justifying a pivot towards rate cuts.However, it clearly stipulated that this pivot is “data-dependent,” meaning continuous confirmation of employment indicators (e.g., non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, participation rate) and core inflation (core PCE, core CPI) is required.

3. Erosion of Fed Independence — The Ripple Effect of Political Risk and its Impact on the Dollar (Key Insight Often Unspoken Elsewhere)

Recent pressures for changes in Fed leadership and attempts at dismissal are not mere political bickering.Such actions risk diminishing the predictability of central bank policy, consequently undermining confidence in dollar-denominated assets (including US Treasuries) structurally.When confidence weakens, two simultaneous flows can occur.First, a realignment of safe-haven preferences: Some central banks and asset managers may accelerate strategies to reduce their reliance on dollars and US Treasuries.Second, increased demand for reserve assets (cash, stablecoins, multi-currency portfolios) in the private sector: Companies and financial institutions may increase alternative settlement and hedging instruments to diversify dollar risk.This point is missed by many media outlets; the erosion of central bank independence can trigger not just increased market volatility but a “structural transformation of the reserve asset ecosystem.”While the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency will not disappear immediately, sustained declines in confidence could significantly reduce its premium in the long term.

4. Chain Reactions in Markets, Finance, and the Real Economy — Detailed Scenarios by Short-Term and Medium-Term Paths

Short-term (Weeks to Months)

• Key Variables: Magnitude of the rise in the unemployment rate, momentum of core PCE, persistence of tariffs and supply shocks.
• Possible Path: If employment deterioration is confirmed, the Fed will strongly signal rate cuts.
• Market Reaction: Weaker dollar, unstable US Treasury demand (increased fluctuations), temporary rally in risk assets (stocks, EM bonds).Medium-term (6-18 Months)
• Key Variables: Timing and pace of the Fed’s rate cut initiation, changes in inflation expectations, policy synchronization among global central banks.
• Possible Path A (Smooth Pivot): If the Fed gradually implements rate cuts conditionally, economic recovery (employment) will follow, risk appetite will broaden, and the dollar will weaken further.
• Possible Path B (Data Reversal): If core inflation re-ignites after rate cuts, the Fed may resume tightening, the market will experience a “rate tantrum,” and the dollar and US Treasuries could regain their safe-haven roles.Long-term (2+ Years)
• Key Variables: Whether Fed independence is restored, the spread of global alternative settlement infrastructure (digital payments, stablecoins), changes in US-China trade policy.
• Possible Path: If the decline in Fed credibility persists, demand for the dollar’s ultra-premium status will decrease → acceleration of a multi-reserve currency system → changes in hedging patterns for emerging markets and corporations.

5. Data and Indicator Checklist — Quantitative Signals to Anticipate Fed Actions

Rising Trend in Unemployment Rate (UE): If a rise of 0.3-0.5 percentage points or more is confirmed in the short term, the possibility of rate cuts increases.Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) 3-Month Average Change: A sustained monthly average increase below 100,000 signals weakening employment.Core PCE Momentum: If the annualized rate exceeds 2.5% for three consecutive months, it warns of re-igniting inflation.Wage Growth (Average Hourly Earnings): If there are signs of a wage-price spiral, the Fed may revert to tightening.Persistence of Tariff and Energy Shocks: If import prices (PPI) continue to rise, the “temporary” assessment may be reversed.Political Risk Indicators: If attempts to dismiss Fed governors or legal disputes persist, dollar confidence may be subject to sustained weakening.

6. Dollar, Bonds, Gold, Stablecoins — Portfolio Perspective and Practical Strategies (Actionable Guidance Often Unspoken Elsewhere)

Dollar Position

• Defensive Strategy: To prepare for dollar depreciation risk, corporations and institutions should increase foreign currency-denominated assets and local currency returns, and manage short-term cash positions flexibly.US Treasuries (UST)
• Strategy: While long-term bonds may become more attractive with rising rate cut expectations, it is essential to manage maturity diversification and duration, considering the possibility of backlash volatility due to weakened Fed credibility.Gold
• Strategy: If a decline in Fed credibility is accompanied by dollar weakness, gold is likely to rise as a hedge against physical assets and trust.Stablecoins and Digital Assets
• Strategy (Corporate Finance Teams): In the medium to long term, test and consider adopting stablecoins and digital currency payments for settlement and cash management.Hedging Instruments
• Strategy (Import/Export Companies): For currency risk management, apply a mixed strategy of multi-currency and options instead of single-currency hedging.

7. Practical Impact and Recommendations for South Korea and Asia

Export Companies

• Impact: As dollar weakness can reduce foreign currency translation gains, it is necessary to redesign revenue structures by currency and consider extending currency hedging.Financial and Capital Markets
• Impact: Potential for increased interest rate volatility due to changes in foreign investor sentiment towards bonds. Banks should strengthen liquidity stress tests.Policymakers
• Recommendations: Consider diversifying foreign exchange reserve composition, strengthening swap lines and regional currency cooperation, and preparing digital payment infrastructure.Investors
• Recommendations: Approach sectors (financial, export, commodities) cyclically based on interest rate and dollar signals, and manage macroeconomic political risks with portfolio insurance (options, etc.).

8. The Most Crucial “Unspoken” Insight: Structural Transformation of Reserve Assets

The erosion of Fed independence can alter the structure of the cross-border reserve asset system (cash and settlement reserves for countries, financial institutions, and large corporations) beyond short-term market volatility.Specifically, central banks and corporations will reduce their reliance on dollars and US Treasuries and build “resilience portfolios” combining multi-currency assets, physical assets (gold), stablecoins, and regional payment networks.This could gradually lower the dollar’s premium as a global reserve currency, with these changes becoming visible over several years (2-5 years).Therefore, financial institutions and corporate finance managers must redesign existing hedging policies and rapidly test digital and multilateral settlement initiatives.

9. Risk Management Checkpoints — Action Guidelines by Trigger

Trigger A: If the unemployment rate spikes from 4.5% to 5.0%

• Action: Consider accelerated Fed rate cuts, explore increasing exposure to risk assets, and consider reducing dollar hedging.Trigger B: If core PCE momentum rises for three consecutive months (exceeding an annualized 2.5%)
• Action: Consider the possibility of the Fed resuming tightening, reduce short-term positions and increase cash holdings, and implement downside protection through options.Trigger C: If political pressure and forceful dismissal attempts on Fed governors/chair continue
• Action: Expect continued erosion of dollar confidence, gradually increase exposure to alternative reserve assets (gold, EUR, CNY, stablecoins).

10. Conclusion — How to Prepare (Practical Summary)

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech announced a “conditional pivot,” but this is a signal of flexibility, not a definitive policy shift.The erosion of Fed independence can potentially damage the dollar’s credibility, which could trigger structural changes in reserve assets and settlement infrastructure.While a rally in risk assets is possible in the short term due to rate cut expectations, volatile markets may reappear if inflation re-accelerates.Practically, real-time monitoring of employment and core inflation indicators, along with resilience portfolios including multi-currency and digital assets, and proactive hedging strategies are key.

At Jackson Hole, Powell declared a “shift in the balance of risks from inflation to employment,” signaling conditional rate cuts.However, the erosion of Fed independence can potentially damage the dollar’s credibility, triggering structural shifts in reserve assets and the payment ecosystem.While short-term expectations of rate cuts and dollar weakness may emerge, significant volatility could occur if core inflation re-ignites and the Fed reverts to tightening.Practically, real-time monitoring of employment and core inflation indicators, along with a resilience portfolio including multi-currency and digital assets, and aggressive hedging strategies are necessary.

[Related Articles…]

• The Future of the US Dollar and Exchange Rate Strategy — 2026 Outlook (Summary)
• Global Interest Rate Pivots and Investment Strategies — Latest Analysis (Summary)

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– The Fed’s Independence Undermined and the Dollar’s Changing Role: Powell’s Final Jackson Hole Spe…

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● Dollar’s Demise- Stablecoins Unleash Central Bank Obsolescence- Real Mechanisms- Ignored Risks- On-Chain Signals- Action Plans

“Even Central Banks Become Useless.” The Scenario of Won Depreciation and the Irreversible Transition Triggered by Stablecoins — Key Takeaways from This Article: The Real Mechanism Threatening Dollar Hegemony, Critical Risks Missed by Central Banks and the Banking Sector, On-chain Signals (Real-time Checklist), Action Plans for Individuals, Businesses, and Governments to Prepare Right Now.

1) Background — Why Bring Up This Discussion Again Now (Past → Present Flow)

The emergence of Bitcoin and stablecoins is not merely an asset substitution.Since 2008, the monetary and financial order centered around central banks has become increasingly vulnerable to digitally transformed capital mobility.The dollar-centric international payment system and hegemony have been maintained by controlling financial infrastructure (payments, settlements, identity).However, as stablecoins and blockchain-based payment infrastructure mature, value storage and transfer outside the dollar-centric network become possible in real-time.This shift fundamentally impacts central banks’ monetary policy and exchange rate management, as well as banks’ deposit and lending structures.

2) Observable Signals Now (Indicators Verifiable Immediately)

• Increase in Stablecoin Issuance and Circulation: Trends in on-chain holdings and total ERC-20 token issuance.
• Moves Towards Institutional ETF Approvals: News of ETF approvals/applications/approvals in the US signals institutional capital inflows.
• Declarations and Reclassifications of Reserve Assets: Moves by some asset managers and countries to consider non-traditional assets as ‘reserve assets.’
• Widening FX Futures and Swap Premiums: Widening FX swap and forward rate differentials for the Won indicate a surge in dollar demand.
• On-chain Liquidity Outflow: Increase in outflow of foreign stablecoins from domestic exchanges.

Among these, a particularly critical signal missed by the market is: “The speed of stablecoin on/off-ramps and their linkage to fiat currency.” — If this improves rapidly, capital bypassing the regulated financial system could explode.

3) Imminent Developments (Short-term: Weeks to Months / Medium-term: 1-2 Years)

• Short-term (Weeks to Months)
• News of ETF approvals in the US/Europe or declarations of stablecoin holdings by major asset managers will accelerate the movement to safe assets.
• Surge in foreign exchange demand for the Won → Potential for a sharp depreciation that is difficult to control with conventional foreign exchange intervention.
• Medium-term (1-2 Years)
• If major global institutions formalize stablecoins as part of their reserve assets or integrate them into payment systems, dollar dependency and central banks’ monetary sovereignty will be shaken.
• The competition for CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) and regulatory responses in various countries will fully materialize, leading to a restructuring of financial infrastructure.

4) Critical Mechanisms Not Discussed by Other Media — Why ‘Central Banks Become Useless’

• Erosion of Seigniorage (Profits from Issuing Currency)
• If stablecoins partially replace fiat currency, central banks’ interest and revenue structure from currency issuance will decrease.
• Neutralization of Capital Controls
• Stablecoins provide a function to circumvent capital controls (e.g., remittance restrictions, foreign exchange regulations) through global routing.
• If on-chain KYC/AML is bypassed, or decentralized exchanges (DEXs) and P2P transactions become active, traditional regulatory tools will recede.
• Reduction in Bank Intermediation Function
• If companies and institutions directly hold and transfer funds using stablecoins, deposit outflows (disflow) will occur, impacting banks’ lending capacity.
• Redistribution of Trust
• If trust shifts from ‘currency guaranteed by the state’ to ‘currency guaranteed by the network,’ the effectiveness of monetary policy will decline.

This point is crucial and often missed by economic news: when technological accessibility (fast on/off-ramps) combines with institutional acceptance (ETFs, reserve classification), existing control mechanisms can be neutralized instantly.

5) Analysis of Scenarios — Organized by Won, Interest Rates, and Banking Sector

• Scenario A: Gradual Transition (Regulatory Adjustments, CBDC Parallelism)
• Won: Mild depreciation, increased volatility.
• Central Bank: Adjustment of monetary policy tools (development of digital market stabilization measures).
• Banks: Expansion of digital asset custody and tokenized products.
• Scenario B: Rapid Capital Outflow (Surge in Stablecoin On-ramps + Triggered by ETF Approval)
• Won: Sharp depreciation in a short period (potential for “melting Won” levels).
• Central Bank: Emergency intervention due to depletion of foreign exchange reserves, potential reintroduction of capital controls.
• Banks: Liquidity crisis, need for deposit protection, credit crunch.
• Scenario C: Regulatory and Financial Blockade (Strong Regulation → Stablecoin Decentralization)
• Won: Short-term defense success, but long-term trust issues remain.
• Global decentralized networks will go underground, increasing supervision difficulty.

6) Practical Checklist — ‘Real-time’ Signals to Observe Immediately

• Daily: On-chain stablecoin net inflows/outflows, domestic exchange → foreign addresses (Stablecoin outflow).
• Weekly: Changes in FX swap/futures premiums, foreign exchange reserve fluctuations and frequency of central bank intervention.
• Monthly: Institutional ETF fund flows, changes in major banks’ external deposits (foreign currency denominated).
• Policy Signals: Government/financial authorities’ stablecoin regulation announcements, speed of legislative changes in overseas regulations (US, EU).
• Market Sentiment: Short-term volatility of the Won (VIX-like), changes in risk premiums between bonds and stocks.

7) Action Plan from Investor, Corporate, and Policy Perspectives

• Individual Investors
• Defensive Diversification: Reduce cash (Won) holdings, maintain some exposure to USD, stablecoins, and physical assets.
• Acquire On-chain Fundamentals: Understand on/off-ramp procedures, select reliable custody providers.
• Short-term Hedging: Manage currency risk with FX futures/options.
• Corporations (Corporate Finance, Treasury)
• Financial Risk Mapping: Monitor foreign and domestic currency positions in real-time.
• Test Alternative Payment Networks: Pilot stablecoin payments, multi-currency fund management.
• Establish Liquidity Contingency Plans: Secure non-bank liquidity sources.
• Policy Recommendations (Government, Central Bank)
• Build On-chain Monitoring Infrastructure: Real-time capital flow surveillance system.
• Technical Refinement of Regulations: Regulate arbitrage between OTC, DEX, and CEX; strengthen KYC/AML while allowing stable testnets.
• Enhance International Cooperation: Coordinate changes in dollar hegemony-based infrastructure within a multilateral framework.

8) Risks and Counter-Scenarios — Caution Against Overestimation

• Regulatory Risks: Strong regulations and legal sanctions can derail the spread of stablecoins.
• Liquidity/Collateral Risks: If the quality of stablecoin collateral deteriorates, panic can be induced (similar to the “Tether incident”).
• Technological and Operational Risks: Payment settlement risks exposed during off-ramping (fiat currency ↔ stablecoin).
• In conclusion, stablecoins may not immediately replace all currency hegemony, but if combined triggers act simultaneously, they can create a rapid inflection point.

< Summary >

• When the improvement of stablecoin on/off-ramps is combined with acceptance by US/global institutions (ETFs, reserve asset recognition), large-scale capital movements outside the dollar-centric payment network become possible.
• In such a case, traditional monetary control by central banks weakens, and the Won faces the risk of sharp depreciation (potential for “melting”) in a short period.
• Signals to observe immediately: on-chain stablecoin flows, FX swap premiums, ETF fund inflows, frequency of central bank intervention.
• Individuals and businesses must quickly prepare for diversification into USD, stablecoins, and cash, on-chain custody readiness, and FX hedging strategies.
• For policy, real-time monitoring infrastructure, sophisticated regulations, and international cooperation are essential.

[Related Articles…]The Future of the Dollar and the Role of StablecoinsStrategies for Responding to Korean Won Exchange Rate Volatility

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– “Even the central bank is becoming useless.” The won will eventually melt away. The unimaginable …

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● South Korea-US Summit Fallout US-China Tariff War – A Comprehensive Analysis of Tariff Negotiations, Supply Chains, and Korea’s Breakthrough Strategy

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The Aftermath of the South Korea-US Summit: Where is the US-China Tariff War Headed? — A Comprehensive Overview of Tariff Negotiations, Supply Chains, and South Korea’s Breakthrough Strategy

We provide a clear overview of the biggest variables remaining after the South Korea-US summit, particularly the progress of US-China tariff negotiations and their ripple effects.The key content included in this article is as follows:The next steps and realistic effects of US tariffs and industry-specific sanctions.The reality of China’s internally prepared “non-response strategy” (rare earth elements, energy/food stockpiling, technology self-sufficiency plans).The structural impact of the Taiwan issue and technological hegemony on tariff negotiations.Practical foreign policy and industrial strategies for South Korea to become a “country needed by both sides.”Hidden risks and priority responses that are rarely covered in news or on YouTube.

1) Background in Chronological Order (Pre- → Summit → Aftermath)

Pre-Summit (Months Ago)The US heightened pressure by simultaneously considering tariffs, technology sanctions, and industry-specific regulations (potentially targeting semiconductors, telecommunications, and rare earth elements).China had been internally preparing response scenarios, including restrictions on high-level business travel.China’s goal was to have a strategy to withstand decoupling.

During the Summit (Late August)The actual South Korea-US summit focused on security agenda items, with limited publicly announced economic and trade agreements.Regarding tariffs, the possibility of “partial negotiations” remained, but it was confirmed that a complete agreement was not reached.

Post-Summit (Present ~ Short-Term)China immediately expressed displeasure and began deploying economic cards (pressuring China, trade, and diplomatic incentives).The US is likely to continue its pressure by mentioning the possibility of industry-specific (semiconductors, steel, etc.) and secondary sanctions, in addition to the mutual tariff agreement.As a result, even with a tariff “truce,” an unstable state is likely to continue.

2) China’s Key Cards and Their Reality

Enduring with the Domestic Market (1.4 Billion Consumers)China is accelerating policies to absorb export shocks by shifting to domestic consumption.However, relying solely on domestic demand makes it difficult to completely resolve dependence on advanced technologies and raw materials.

Energy and Food Stockpiling and Supply Line DiversificationImport sources have recently been redirected to Russia and Brazil, repositioning energy, soybean, and corn supply chains.According to official and unofficial reports, there are claims of securing strategic reserves for 1-2 years.

Rare Earth Elements and Raw Material CardsThe card of rare earth element export restrictions has already been deployed without notice, which can immediately impact global supply chains.This card serves as a powerful negotiation tool for the US and its allies.

Technological Hegemony and Self-Sufficiency (Preparing for the 15th Five-Year Plan)China has set “technological self-sufficiency” as a key goal and is accelerating the establishment of its own ecosystem in core areas like semiconductors.However, achieving complete self-sufficiency in cutting-edge processes (e.g., 7nm or lower) will require time in terms of technology, equipment, and materials.

Political and Security Cards (Taiwan, Military Demonstrations)Following the summit, China may seek to enhance its negotiation leverage by strengthening diplomatic and military signals (e.g., Victory Day parades, military displays).

3) The US’s Next Steps — Beyond Tariffs

Industry-Specific Customized SanctionsBeyond the mutual tariff agreement, it is highly probable that separate regulations will be imposed on specific industries such as semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, and batteries.This has a deeper supply chain disruption effect than simple tariffs.

Financial and Secondary SanctionsThe US can expand its pressure on China through the financial track.However, the effectiveness may be limited due to the “partial separation” of China’s financial system.

Strengthening Technology Export Controls and Export ManagementIt is highly likely that export controls on advanced equipment and software will be more precisely strengthened.This will further hinder China’s self-sufficiency in advanced chips and equipment.

Policy TimelineShort-term: Attempt mutual tariff negotiations (partial agreement).Mid-term: Pursue strengthened industry-specific regulations and export management.Long-term: Deepen competitive technological hegemony and geopolitical separation.

4) Supply Chain Realignment and South Korea’s Exposure Points

Supply Chain Realignment (Reshoring and Pro-Alliance Block Formation)If US-led bloc formation accelerates, China-centric supply chains will become fragmented.South Korean companies will face simultaneously expanding competitive pressure and opportunities between China and the US.

South Korea’s Weak Link: Dependence on Intermediate Goods and MaterialsThe impact will vary depending on whether South Korea’s reliance is more on China or the US, particularly for rare metals, high-end materials, and certain equipment.Areas where South Korean companies lose competitiveness will require swift securing of alternative sources.

Opportunities: Advanced Contract Manufacturing and Specific Material Supply HubsSouth Korea can expand its role as a “country needed by both sides” in areas such as semiconductor back-end processing and packaging, and battery cathode materials and recycling.

5) South Korea’s Practical Foreign Policy and Industrial Strategy (Priorities and Action Plans)

Strategic GoalTo secure strategic items that are “indispensable” to both sides.

Policy Action 1 — Securing Key Technologies and MaterialsImmediately implement enhanced national-level investment to secure supply of rare earth element alternatives, high-purity chemicals, and specialty gases.Accelerate localization and overseas diversification of semiconductor equipment and materials.

Policy Action 2 — Diversifying Diplomatic and Trade CardsMaintain “economic incentives” from China through possibilities like the Korea-China FTA and Korea-Japan-China cooperation.Simultaneously maintain security trust through the Korea-US alliance while strengthening economic independence.

Policy Action 3 — Strategic Stockpiling and Risk HedgingExpand stockpiling of strategic goods (energy, food, key materials) and diversify supply sources.Support short-term shock absorption through financial and insurance support for companies.

Policy Action 4 — Public-Private Partnership Negotiation StrategyThe government should identify “what is needed” first and present customized negotiation packages (technology, investment, infrastructure) for each industry.Companies should respond by transitioning to high value-added production and strengthening supply chain flexibility.

6) Scenario-Based Outlook and Expected Timeline

Best-Case Scenario (Low Probability)Mutual tariff agreement + partial resumption of technological cooperation.Effect: Mild economic recovery after short-term instability.

Intermediate Scenario (Medium Probability)Partial agreement on mutual tariffs + continued industry-specific tensions.Effect: Accelerated supply chain realignment, with securing and diversifying strategic materials being key for South Korea.

Worst-Case Scenario (Not High Probability)Widespread industry-specific sanctions and heightened military tensions.Effect: Accelerated global fragmentation, with long-term cost increases and investment reallocation.

7) Most Important Points Rarely Covered in the News (Exclusive Insights)

China’s internal preparations, such as “suspension of high-level business travel,” signify actual policy preparation steps, not mere propaganda.The rare earth element card is on the verge of practical deployment, and the timing of its activation depends on China’s strategic judgment.Even if only “mutual tariffs” are resolved in tariff negotiations, industry-specific and technology-specific sanctions are likely to continue, meaning a tariff agreement does not equate to problem resolution.China’s technological self-sufficiency declaration (15th Five-Year Plan) will begin in earnest from next year chronologically, and short-term and long-term outcomes differ.The “most realistic advantage” South Korea can pursue is positioning itself to satisfy the dependencies of both sides in specific key inputs and intermediate goods.

< Summary >

The South Korea-US summit was security-centric, and US-China tariff negotiations remain an unstable variable.China has laid the groundwork to withstand a tariff war through rare earth elements, energy and food stockpiling, and preparations for technological self-sufficiency.The US is likely to employ industry-specific regulations, technology export controls, and financial measures in addition to mutual tariffs.South Korea’s core strategy is to become a “country needed by both sides” to secure negotiation leverage, and to this end, it must prioritize the localization of materials, components, and equipment, diversification of supply sources, and strategic stockpiling.

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*Source: [ 경제한방 ]

– 한미 정상회담 후폭풍, 미·중 관세 전쟁 어디로? / 이철 박사

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