Global Bond Panic – ADP Shock – Google AI Surge

● Global Bond Meltdown French Fiscal Fears-Immediate Analysis

[Immediate Analysis] Global Sovereign Bond Frenzy & French Fiscal Instability — What, When, and How They Impact

Key contents covered in this article: Temporal unfolding and mechanisms of the global ultra-long-term sovereign bond frenzy, immediate triggers and hidden risk factors in the UK (Gilt) and France (fiscal/political risks), crucial points often overlooked by other media (positioning of stablecoins, pension funds, hedge funds, credit rating agencies’ reassessment schedules), realistic scenarios and requirements for IMF applications, and the transmission channels to South Korea and Asian markets, including a checklist for investors (positioning).

1) Current (Immediate) Situation — What is Happening (Chronological Summary)

Global ultra-long-term (20-30 year) sovereign bond yields have surged in a short period.The rise in long-term yields in the UK and France has been particularly pronounced.Concurrently, short-term yields have fallen due to rate cut expectations, leading to a sharp widening of the yield curve (steepening).Volatility in the sovereign bond market has become so extreme that the term “frenzy” is being used.Key Triggers (Chronological Order): Central bank pivot signals (rate cut expectations) → Rising inflation expectations and term premiums → Rebound in long-term yields and steepening → Simultaneous fiscal/political issues in some countries (UK/France) → Amplification of credit risk concerns and portfolio vulnerabilities.

2) Core Mechanism — Why Are Long-Term Yields Rising Despite Rate Cut Expectations?

Expectations of policy rate cuts lower short-term yields.Lower short-term rates can stimulate consumption and investment, potentially boosting inflation expectations.Inflation expectations and future interest rate uncertainty increase the term premium (a “premium” for holding long-term bonds).A rising term premium pushes up long-term yields, causing steepening.Therefore, a combination of monetary policy pivots + expansionary fiscal policy (increased government bond issuance) further elevates long-term yields.Furthermore, if there are signals that monetary policy independence is being undermined to a “below-neutral” level, investors demand higher risk premiums.

3) In-Depth Country Analysis (Immediate Risk → Short-Term Trigger → Medium-Term Impact, Chronologically)

United Kingdom (Gilt)Immediate Risk: The surge in Gilt yields (UK 10-30 year bonds) is the most rapid.Short-Term Trigger: Government’s large long-term issuance plans and fiscal policy uncertainty, reduction in pension fund holdings and increase in foreign/hedge fund exposure.Medium-Term Impact: A holding structure dominated by foreign, private equity, and hedge funds can lead to rapid price distortions during sell-offs and liquidity stress.FranceImmediate Risk: A clear trend of rising public debt-to-GDP ratio and widening fiscal deficit.Short-Term Trigger: Political instability (e.g., confidence votes) and credit rating agency reassessments (a short-term trigger window from September to November) could prompt price repricing.Medium-Term Impact: The risk of credit rating downgrades could lead to higher premiums on French sovereign debt and ripple effects throughout European financial markets.United StatesImmediate Risk: Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal (revenue) policies, and the potential for large-scale Treasury issuance (legal/policy risks) exist.Short-Term Trigger: Tariff rulings (changes in projected tariff revenue) directly impact Treasury issuance plans.Medium-Term Impact: Changes in US Treasury demand/holding structures (e.g., China reducing holdings) are a source of instability in global yield discovery.Japan, EU, OthersJapan’s fiscal policy, tax cuts, and policy changes affect the global supply-demand balance.Fiscal expansion in major Eurozone countries creates funding pressure within the single market.

4) Crucial Points Often Overlooked by Other Media (Get Ahead by Knowing Here)

Changes in Holdings: A decrease in holdings by pension funds and central banks, and an increase by foreign entities, hedge funds, and private equity, creates a “liquidity vacuum” during rapid sell-offs.Role of Stablecoins and Short-Term Funds: Stablecoin issuers have suppressed short-term yields by purchasing short-term US Treasuries and short-term government bonds, but they have not met long-term demand, thus accelerating steepening.Credit Rating Agency Schedules (Short-Term Trigger Window): The reassessment schedules of major rating agencies (September-November) could, if aligned with real economic and political data, lead to immediate rating adjustments.Margin Call Risk for Pension Funds and Insurers: A sharp rise in ultra-long-term yields can shock the valuation of long-term liabilities, forcing insurers and pension funds to adjust their positions.Political Economy of Government-Central Bank Interaction: When fiscal expansion by the government and a pivot by the central bank occur simultaneously, concerns about weakened central bank independence grow, further eroding the confidence of foreign holders and pushing long-term yields higher.

5) France’s IMF Scenario — Realistic Conditions and Impact

The immediate possibility of an IMF request is “low to medium.”However, if political uncertainty (government collapse, policy confusion) and credit rating downgrades occur simultaneously, it could lead to a liquidity crisis, significantly increasing the likelihood of an IMF request.If the IMF intervenes, its demands will typically include austerity (spending cuts, revenue increases), structural reforms, and financial stability measures (bank capital reinforcement).While IMF intervention can contribute to short-term financial stability, fiscal austerity fundamentally exacerbates economic slowdown, creating a “short-term-medium-term trade-off.”Key Point: More dangerous than whether an IMF application is made is the path of “market (yield) pressure → credit crunch → real economic deterioration.”

6) Market and Economic Transmission Channels — Impact on South Korea and Asia (By Priority)

Direct Channel: Global long-term yield rise → Domestic long-term yield rise → Increased borrowing costs for businesses and households.Indirect Channel: Risk aversion → Dollar strength → Capital outflows from emerging markets/currency pressure.Financial Transmission Channel: Possible simultaneous adjustments in bonds and stocks due to portfolio rebalancing by pension funds and insurers.Real Economy Impact: Reduction in corporate and capital investment → Deepening downward pressure on growth rates.South Korean Investor Checklist: Maturity positioning (duration), foreign currency debt, export-oriented stocks (dollar sensitivity) and import prices (inflation), financial sector soundness.

7) Immediate Investor and Policy Response Checklist (Short-Term → Medium-Term)

Immediate Check (48-72 hours):Secure Short-Term Liquidity: Review maturity positions and assess cash and offshore dollar holdings.Key Monitoring Points: UK/French government bond auction (issuance) schedules, credit rating agency reassessment dates, major auction cover ratios.Hedging: Consider interest rate swaps and inflation-linked bonds (TIPS) to hedge against long-term yield increases (duration risk).Medium-Term Positioning (Weeks to Months):Track Country Credit Spreads: Widening spreads in France, the UK, and Italy indicate further increases in European risk premiums.Response Strategy: Reduce exposure to cyclical and highly leveraged companies, increase holdings in defensive stocks, dividend stocks, and cash-like assets.Portfolio Adjustment by Policy Scenario: If credit rating downgrades or an IMF scenario materializes, rapidly reduce European asset exposure.

8) Policy Scenarios and Probabilities (My Perspective)

Base Case (Most Likely): Increased short-term volatility → Partial intervention by central banks/governments through bond purchases and liquidity support → Gradual stabilization.Risk-Up Scenario: Credit rating downgrades + Political deadlock (France) → Increased need for ECB intervention → Tightening of European financial conditions.Black Swan (Low Probability): Simultaneous credit rating downgrades + Large-scale foreign sell-off → Liquidity crisis across financial markets (regional expansion).Potential Policy Responses: Direct purchases by BOE/ECB, political cooperation within the Eurozone, expansion of short-term liquidity facilities.

9) Conclusion — The Most Important Checkpoints Right Now (Often Unaddressed Elsewhere)

The most crucial factors are “changes in holdings structure” and “credit rating agency schedules.”The reduction in holdings by pension funds and central banks, coupled with the increase by foreign entities and hedge funds, amplifies market shocks during rapid events.The credit rating agencies’ reassessment schedules from September to November can act as immediate triggers when combined with real economic and political events.The role of non-traditional funds like stablecoins in distorting short-term bond demand and altering the spread structure is a key point often missing from many news reports.Therefore, the priority for both investors and policymakers to monitor simultaneously is “liquidity facilities and holdings structure.”

< Summary >The surge in global ultra-long-term sovereign bond yields is driven by rising term premiums combined with expectations of short-term rate cuts.The UK is vulnerable due to its holdings structure (reduced pension funds, increased foreign/hedge funds), while France faces short-term triggers from its fiscal deficit, political instability, and credit rating reassessment schedules.Key points often overlooked by others include the role of stablecoins/short-term funds and the potential for margin calls from pension funds and insurers.While an immediate IMF application is unlikely, it becomes a realistic scenario if political turmoil and credit rating downgrades occur simultaneously.Investors should prioritize monitoring duration, cash, inflation-linked assets, credit spreads, and key schedules (bond auctions, rating agency dates).

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [LIVE] (1)글로벌 국채발작 (2)프랑스 재정불안, IMF 구제금융 신청할까? [즉시분석]

● ADP Shock, Trump Crypto Surge, Gold at 5k- Goldman’s Bold Call, REITs to Shine- Key Takeaways

The core of this article: Clarifying the real meaning of the ADP shock, the trap of Fed rate cut probability, the ripple effect of Trump family’s virtual assets on market liquidity, the background of a structural rally in gold and safe-haven assets, and the ‘most important perspective’ that is often overlooked in other news – it’s all summarized here.

1) New York Market Summary (Early September: September 3rd → Morning of September 4th)The New York stock market closed mixed on the 3rd.Google (Alphabet)’s court news led to a surge in its stock price, supporting the Nasdaq.Long-term Treasury yields fell compared to the previous day, indicating a stabilization trend in interest rates.However, the ADP private employment report (August) released on the morning of the 4th fell significantly short of expectations (73,000) with 54,000 jobs, signaling a strong slowdown in the labor market.Subsequently, an increase in weekly jobless claims and descriptions of slowing consumption and wages in the Beige Book further fueled the narrative of “weakening employment data → expectations of interest rate cuts.”This trend elicits a short-term reaction in the U.S. stock market, but it’s crucial to closely examine the connection to the real economy (corporate earnings).

2) The Meaning of the ADP Shock — More Than Just a Number (The Most Important Point)The significant miss in ADP is not just statistical noise.When weakened private sector employment and increased jobless claims occur simultaneously, there is a significant downside risk for non-farm payrolls (NFP).The market has already priced in a 97% probability of a September rate cut (25bp).However, the most critical point is the uncertainty of whether ‘expectations of interest rate cuts’ will translate into actual improvement in corporate earnings.In other words, the era where interest rate cuts directly lead to a stock rally is coming to an end.Without accompanying corporate profit growth (revenue and earnings growth), the liquidity effect of interest rate cuts will be limited.This is a key point that is often understated in many news outlets and YouTube channels.

3) Fed, Beige Book, and the Market’s Changing Perception of Interest RatesThe Beige Book assessed that the economic trend has weakened further, citing stagnant wages and slowing consumption.As the ‘independence controversy’ surrounding the Fed and political pressure (e.g., Trump’s messages) increase, the market prices in the risk to the Fed’s policy credibility.If rate cuts are perceived as a ‘certain event,’ the initial reaction in bonds and stocks may be limited.The reason is: If rate cuts are interpreted as a mere policy easing signal (response to economic slowdown) rather than a signal of economic rebound, it will be difficult for corporate earnings to improve.

4) Trump Family’s Virtual Assets and Listings (e.g., American Bitcoin) — What’s Different?American Bitcoin, in which Trump’s second son is involved, experienced significant volatility on its first day of its direct listing after an initial surge.Virtual assets and tokens associated with the Trump family attract considerable market attention initially, but they can also experience rapid declines if long-term performance and business models are not validated.The most important perspective: Political influence (President’s messages, regulatory impact) can distort market liquidity and demand.This can cause a ‘FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) → Panic’ cycle where liquidity temporarily flows into and out of Bitcoin, virtual assets, and related listed stocks (advertising, platform, mining companies).In conclusion, individual investors must always be mindful of the risks of short-term event trading (political risk).

5) Goldman Sachs’ $5,000 Gold Scenario — Is it Realistic?Goldman Sachs presented an upward scenario for gold prices, mentioning the possibility of reaching a high of $5,000 by mid-2026.Key Drivers:

Expansion of gold holdings by major central banks (especially China).
Weakening dollar and global currency diversification (de-dollarization strategies by some countries).
Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the weakening credibility of the Fed.Market Perspective:Goldman’s extreme scenario is possible if ‘leverage, institutional, and national demand’ accelerate simultaneously.However, for individual investors, it is more realistic to approach gold as a hedge (relative weight of 5-9%) within their portfolios rather than blindly following Goldman’s scenario.

6) Rate Cut Beneficiary Stocks: Why ‘Self-Storage REITs’?Structural Strengths of Self-Storage REITs:

Demand for self-storage in the U.S. is stable regardless of the economic cycle (held by about 1 in 10 people).
Household demand for storing belongings, increased residential mobility, and trends in online retail and inventory management create sustained demand.Beneficial Factors in a Rate Cut Scenario:
Potential for increased moving demand, such as relocation, as mortgage and loan costs ease.
Increased capacity for dividend expansion and M&A (facility expansion) as REIT financing costs decline.Investment Considerations:
The risk of oversupply (new warehouse construction) and regional demand differences need to be checked.
Unlike recession-proof sectors, self-storage REITs are not entirely risk-free.

7) Quick Check on Companies and Sectors (Perspective on ADP’s Impact on Stock Prices)Big Tech (Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta): Sensitive to regulatory and litigation issues, but AI expectations provide momentum.IPO and High-Valuation Growth Stocks (e.g., Figma): High volatility if not supported by earnings.Energy (Oil Prices): Downward pressure on oil prices due to potential OPEC+ production increases, implying downside risk for the sector.Gold and Bitcoin: Increased volatility if the cross-flow between safe-haven and risk assets intensifies.Self-Storage REITs: Potential for structural benefits with rate cuts and demand recovery.

8) What’s Not Often Discussed in News and YouTube, But is Most ImportantExpectations of interest rate cuts have already been largely priced into the market.However, if ‘weakening of the real economy (slowing wages, consumption, and employment)’ persists, rate cuts may not guarantee an economic rebound.In other words, while the market reacts to ‘policy expectations,’ long-term stock price increases are ultimately determined by corporate earnings.In other words, meticulously examining corporate fundamentals and sector-specific benefits/risks is more important for long-term investment than short-term ‘interest rate event’ trading.This perspective is a key point that is often ‘overlooked’ in most broadcasts and short news segments.

9) Investment Practical Checklist (Action Guidelines)Short-term (Trading): Reduce leveraged positions to manage risks associated with ADP, jobless claims, and NFP releases.Mid-term (Portfolio Reallocation): When expectations for rate cuts are high, consider defensive assets such as gold, high-quality bonds, and selective REITs (like self-storage).Long-term (Asset Allocation): For stocks, approach based on sector and corporate earnings. AI and Big Tech should be re-evaluated based on ‘earnings growth potential.’Risk Management: For Trump-related coins and themes, due to high political event risk, implement phased buying and stop-loss rules.Monitoring Points: Central banks (especially China’s gold purchases), dollar exchange rate, jobless claims trend, corporate earnings guidance.

10) Conclusion — What Should Investors Remember Now?The slowdown in employment data like ADP has intensified expectations for Fed rate cuts.However, rate cuts themselves do not guarantee economic recovery.The listing of Trump family-related virtual assets is a short-term liquidity event, and time is needed to determine if it represents a structural investment opportunity.Goldman’s $5,000 gold scenario is a possible scenario, but for individual investors, a realistic approach is to consider it as a risk-hedging tool within their portfolios.Self-storage REITs are a representative sector expected to benefit structurally from rate cuts due to genuine demand.In summary: Do not be swayed by short-term events (ADP, Trump virtual assets); instead, review your portfolio focusing on corporate earnings and structurally benefiting industries.

< Summary >A significant miss in ADP private employment (54,000) signals a slowdown in the labor market.Fed rate cut probabilities have surged, but rate cuts do not necessarily mean economic and stock market recovery.The listing of Trump family-related virtual assets amplifies short-term liquidity and volatility, exacerbating political risks.Goldman’s $5,000 gold scenario could materialize if central bank buying, dollar weakness, and weakened Fed credibility align.Among sectors benefiting from rate cuts, self-storage REITs are noteworthy considering structural demand and interest rate sensitivity.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [美개장포인트] ADP 8월고용 대폭하회 “둔화 뚜렷”ㅣ골드만삭스 “금 5000달러 간다”ㅣ금리인하 수혜주 창고 리츠ㅣ 홍키자의 매일뉴욕

● Google Stock Surges Post-Antitrust Ruling – AI’s Hidden Impact

AI Revolution Reshapes Antitrust Verdict: The True Meaning of Google’s Stock Surge and Future Scenarios

The superficial reasons behind the surge in Google and Apple, and the Nasdaq’s rise, and the substantive impact hidden beneath.The significance of AI acting as a deciding factor in the court ruling.How data sharing measures will actually work—key checkpoints from a corporate and investor perspective.Google’s AI competitiveness (Gemini, Labs, etc.) and future product/revenue structure change scenarios.Market (analyst, valuation) reactions and short-term/medium-to-long-term investment risks and opportunities.An in-depth perspective on the verdict’s ‘data distribution channels’ and ‘practical limitations,’ which are rarely covered elsewhere.

1) Today’s Market Reaction — What the Numbers Tell Us

Google (Alphabet) stock surged by approximately 9%, and Apple rose by about 4%.The significant rise in these two companies, which led the entire Nasdaq (+1%), exemplifies a ‘hard carry’ phenomenon.Short-term interpretation: Immediate benefits stemmed from expectations of reduced antitrust risk.Keywords: AI, Google, Antitrust, Big Tech, Data.

2) Core Contents of the Verdict (Summary) — Points Not Emphasized by the Media

It appears the court did not order the immediate divestiture (separation) of Chrome and Android.However, the clauses regarding ‘data sharing’ and ‘mitigation of search monopolization’ lie at the core.The judge’s remark in this case, “Generative AI (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, etc.) has shifted the market’s fulcrum,” was decisive.While the media emphasizes only the ‘no divestiture’ aspect, the practical crux lies in what data, to whom, and how it will be provided.This means there’s a high probability of a gap between the court’s ruling wording and its actual enforcement.

3) Practical Issues of Data Sharing — Key Points Not Adequately Covered Elsewhere

Specificity of data to be shared: Query logs, click data, personalization signals (user sessions, ad responses), etc.The data that companies can actually provide is unlikely to be ‘complete raw data’ but rather anonymized, sampled, or API-based.The format, frequency, and sampling rate of data significantly impact AI model performance.Due to legal, privacy, and security issues, ‘data bridges’ are limited, and scenarios where only low-utility data is transferred are entirely possible.Ultimately, ‘data sharing’ may not directly grant decisive advantages for training competing AI models.However, certain high-quality signals (e.g., user click patterns, SERP rich snippet responses) hold significant value, making control over them a crucial factor.

4) AI Changed the Verdict — A Turning Point in Market Structure

With the advent of generative AI, the center of gravity for traffic and user behavior is shifting from ‘search (search engine-centric)’ to ‘interactive assistance (conversational AI)’.The fact that this change has been reflected in the court’s judgment signals that the very standards of regulation are changing.However, user transition is not complete: AI is seen to complement search rather than replace it, or to absorb specific use cases (coding, summarization, creation, etc.).Google possesses the ability to defend and expand its search and advertising revenue structure by integrating it with an AI front-end.In summary: AI functions as a variable in regulatory judgment, but actual competitive dynamics are multi-layered, with data, models, and product integration being the deciding factors.

5) Google’s Internal Strengths and Weaknesses — Why Did the Market React Immediately?

Strengths: Vast user data (search, Android, Chrome), cloud infrastructure (GCP), top-tier AI talent pool, capital.These strengths directly translate into an advantage in maintaining AI model competitiveness and productization (Gemini, Labs, etc.).Weaknesses: Regulatory risks (possibility of appeal), relative weakening of competitiveness due to data sharing requirements (short-term).Even if Google shares some data, its overall network effect and diverse data sources are not easily undermined.This is why, despite short-term volatility, its long-term moat is still considered robust.

6) Changes in Relationship with Apple — Implications for Licensing and Advertising Revenue Structures

The ‘consideration’ Google pays to smartphone manufacturers for default search inclusion is known to be substantial (the text provides an example).The resolution of legal constraints is favorable for renegotiating search contracts with Apple.However, due to the ruling’s demands for competition and data sharing, Apple’s negotiation power could also increase to some extent.Key point: Apple still retains negotiating leverage by controlling user data on its own platform (iPhone).

7) Who Will Benefit from the Data — Beneficiaries and Limitations

Potential direct beneficiaries: US-based AI companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Mistral, and xAI.If they receive some of Google’s log data, it could aid in model tuning and product competitiveness.However, the actual volume and quality of provided data are likely to be limited.Important note: Chinese companies are unlikely to gain direct benefits from this ruling (due to domestic data and security regulations).Therefore, the global competitive landscape is likely to be characterized by ‘relative improvement for AI players within the US.’

8) Technology Roadmap — The Meaning of Gemini 2.5 → 3

Observation: The period when Gemini 2.5 showed performance improvements marked a turning point for Google’s accelerated growth.Future Gemini 3 (enhanced coding and multimodal capabilities) could directly impact Google’s product portfolio (Search, Workspace, Cloud).If Gemini 3 excels in multimodality and coding, it could secure an advantage in the competitive landscape against OpenAI/GPT series.However, beyond model performance, real-world competitiveness will be determined by data access (real user logs) and product integration.

9) Regulatory Outlook and Litigation Progress — Timeline for Investors to Check

The possibility of an appeal is high.Due to appeals and execution delays, actual data sharing could be pushed back by several years.Until the final details of data sharing (what, how, how much) are finalized, most of the ‘ruling’s effect’ will be based on expectations.Items for investors to check:

Whether an appeal is filed and the appellate court’s initial ruling.
The scope and technical methods of data sharing (anonymization, sampling, APIs, etc.).
Google’s response (settlement, voluntary measures, technical blocking).
Whether competitors can actually access the data and demonstrate model performance improvements.

10) Valuation and Analyst Reactions — Is It Cheap or Expensive Now?

Market reactions are trending towards upward revisions of analyst target prices and an increase in buy recommendations.Comparatively, Google was at a relatively low level in terms of forward P/E compared to other Big Tech companies (refer to example figures in the text).Important: While the ruling itself is positive news, excessive expectations (short-term stock revaluation) should be approached cautiously until tangible benefits are confirmed.Investment perspective:

Short-term: Increased volatility, potential for news-driven trading.
Medium-to-long-term: Worth betting on continued growth stories based on data, talent, and infrastructure.
Risks: Regulatory uncertainty, changes in revenue structure due to data sharing.

11) Investment Strategy (Practical Advice, Reinterpretation) — Short-Term Positions and Medium-to-Long-Term Portfolios

Conservative approach: Stage buyouts until the effectiveness of the ruling (quality of data provision) is confirmed.Aggressive approach: Pursue long-term buying opportunities if AI advantages (Gemini 3, etc.) align with valuation attractiveness.Hedging: Prepare for regulatory/litigation risks through options and liquidity management.Sector diversification: Recommended diversification across Big Tech (Google, MS, Apple), cloud infrastructure (GCP beneficiaries), and AI infrastructure (semiconductors, data centers).Note: This content is for informational and analytical purposes only, not investment advice.

12) Media and Product Observation Checklist — What to Watch Closely in the Coming Months

Corporate disclosures: Google’s appeal status and plans for voluntary data sharing.Regulatory documents: Detailed regulations and scope of data sharing.Product metrics: User growth and activation indicators for AI products like Gemini and Google Labs.Competitor reactions: Announcements from major AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic regarding data utilization cases.Analyst reports: Frequent updates to target prices and earnings estimates.

13) My ‘Most Important Takeaway’ — A Perspective Not Emphasized Elsewhere

The core of the verdict is not ‘data sharing’ itself, but the ‘quality of data accessibility’.Many media outlets focus solely on the divestiture/no divestiture aspect, but actual competitive changes depend on the resolution (granularity), real-time nature, and presence of personalization signals in the provided data.In other words, ‘how the data pipeline is designed’ will determine the future of AI competition, more so than the superficial verdict.Therefore, investors should pay closer attention to the technical and practical execution plans than to the verdict’s text.

14) Practical Risk Check (Legal, Technical, Market)

Legal: Possibility of appeals and injunction requests.Technical: Data utility could be drastically reduced due to anonymization/sampling.Market: Risk of stock overheating due to anticipated gains being priced in.Operational: Google has significant capabilities to respond through technology and contracts (licenses).

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16) Conclusive Perspective — A Message to Investors

This verdict has alleviated some uncertainty surrounding Google, but actual competitive changes will be determined by the ‘quality’ of data and ‘product integration’.While there may be a significant positive event-driven reaction in the short term, Google’s technical execution and realistic agreements with regulators will be more crucial in the medium to long term.Investors should monitor the practical execution of the verdict (data provision methods, scope, and timing) rather than just the text of the ruling.

The surge in Google and Apple stocks stemmed from expectations of reduced antitrust risk.The core of the ruling is the demand for ‘data sharing,’ with actual effects depending on the quality of data provided.The fact that generative AI became a factor in the verdict signals a shift in regulatory standards.Investors should focus on checking appeal possibilities, data provision methods, and product metrics.Despite short-term volatility, Google’s data, infrastructure, and talent base remain strong long-term competitive advantages.

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*Source: [ 월텍남 – 월스트리트 테크남 ]

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