● Tesla’s stock surges on EV tax credit rush, FSD advancements, and robocar progress

Tesla Surges 6% and 7% for Two Consecutive Days — Q3 Deliveries, FSD v14, and Robo-Taxi Permit: 7 Key Points to Watch

This article provides a comprehensive breakdown of the following:

Immediate Market Drivers: The ending of the $7,500 EV tax credit (9/30) has spurred a flash demand for deliveries (delivery volume) and triggered a technical rebound on charts.
Crucial Insights Often Overlooked by Other News Outlets: Tesla’s software (hidden FSD encouragement messages), voxel-based vision patents, and Nevada test drive permits are not merely feature enhancements. They signal a “structural shift towards fully automated commercial robo-taxis, covering the last 100 meters (parking, drop-off, curb maneuvers).”
Three Short-Term (September-October) Watch Points: Q3 delivery announcement, FSD v14 release details, and the expansion of test driving in Nevada.

Below are detailed items and practical interpretations organized chronologically (short-term → mid-term → long-term):

1) Short-Term (Now ~ Early October): The Real Reason for the Stock Surge — Tax Credits, Deliveries, and Chart Technicals

Phenomenon: Tesla’s stock price surged for two consecutive days (6%, 7%).
Three Key Drivers:
- Anticipated Delivery Pull-Forward: The potential end of the $7,500 EV tax credit (USA) at the end of September may have led to a pull-forward of purchase demand into Q3.
- Technical Market Foundation: Charts indicate a bottom formation around the 2011-day moving average, with a strong low point leading traders to shift to an offensive stance.
- Psychological Shift: Even some skeptical Wall Street analysts have begun to “acknowledge the possibility,” triggering short covering and option adjustments.
Investment Checkpoints:
- The Q3 delivery figures (to be announced in early October) will be the primary determinant of short-term stock direction, indicating how much actual delivery was pulled forward.
- The continuation of demand momentum will depend on changes in announcements and interpretations from Congress and the IRS regarding the tax credit.

2) Imminent Events (Days to Weeks): The Significance of FSD v14 and Hidden Software Features

Key Discovery: The latest software versions (e.g., 2025.32.3) have revealed a feature that “encourages FSD usage when the driver’s focus is low or they show signs of drowsiness.”
What This Means (Point Not Well Covered by Other Media):
- Tesla is transitioning its product strategy to position FSD as a “complement to driver limitations” rather than a mere assistant.
- From a User Experience (UX) perspective, Tesla can artificially increase FSD usage frequency by suggesting, “If you’re tired, turn on FSD.”
- This is a highly sensitive change from a regulatory and insurance standpoint: manufacturer-led driver replacement could accelerate debates about liability and legal frameworks.
Practical Checklist:
- Review FSD v14 release notes for mentions of ‘driver monitoring,’ ‘automatic transition encouragement,’ and ‘monitoring levels.’
- Track the expansion scope of the beta program (regions, eligibility), the number of safety event reports, and whether logs are made public.

3) Mid-Term (Weeks to Months): Voxel-Based 3D Vision Patents — The Solution for the “Last 10cm” in Parking, Pickups, and Robo-Taxis

Technology Summary: Tesla’s patent describes a method of combining video data from eight cameras to create a 3D voxel (3D pixel) map, segmenting it into 10cm units to distinguish fine details like surfaces, paint, and parking lines.
Why This is Key (Under-Reported Aspect):
- Most coverage focuses on “road driving (lanes, intersections),” but the real challenges for commercial robo-taxis lie in the finishing maneuvers like “curb navigation, entering parallel parking spots, and selecting optimal drop-off locations.”
- The 10cm precision of voxel-based mapping enables “the vehicle to accurately distinguish between parking spaces and road-side boundaries (e.g., curbs, paint, obstacles) and park or stop itself.”
- Specifically, scenarios like “entering a parking space rather than the road upon reaching the destination” significantly enhance the commercial value of robo-taxis by allowing safer and more efficient passenger pick-ups and drop-offs.
Impact:
- Improved operational efficiency of robo-taxis (better pick-up-to-dispatch matching, reduced parking wait times) leads to higher per-mile profitability.
- The ability to “navigate to parking spots” offers a differentiated user experience compared to traditional taxis and ride-hailing services, driving adoption rates.

4) Regulatory and Commercialization Path (Nevada Test Drive Permit → Commercial Certification): Realistic Timelines and Hurdles

Current Status: Tesla has passed the test drive registration (provisional operating certificate) with the Nevada DMV, receiving a permit for public road testing.
Strategic Reasons for Choosing Nevada:
- Relatively flexible regulations and existing test infrastructure for autonomous driving companies like Waymo and Motional facilitate rapid data accumulation.
- A strategic approach to “quickly gather data and case studies” rather than navigating the stricter regulations of California and New York.
Key Gateways to Commercialization (Paid Operation):
- Phase 1: Accumulate sufficient safety data during test drives (with safety drivers onboard).
- Phase 2: Obtain commercial operation certification (unmanned or limited paid service permit), and establish systems for liability insurance and accident reporting.
Realistic Scenarios:
- Short-Term: Start with safety drivers onboard and limited paid operations in designated areas (a precursor to broader expansion).
- Mid-Term: Gradually transition to unmanned operation as accident rates, liability, and insurance regulations are established.

5) Economic and Business Impact: Profitability, TAM (Total Addressable Market), and the AI Trend Connection

Robo-Taxi Economic Model (Key Point):
- Per-mile revenue (profit) of a vehicle = Fare × Utilization Rate.
- Improving utilization rates (parking and pick-up efficiency) has a significant margin improvement effect by amortizing fixed costs (vehicle, depreciation).
Considering TAM (Total Addressable Market):
- Beyond simple passenger transport, the revenue potential is significantly larger than traditional vehicle sales models when combined with ancillary revenue streams like “automated parking and subscription FSD.”
From an AI Trend Perspective: Voxel-based mapping presents a path distinct from lidar and radar-centric approaches, leveraging the convergence of “data + models.”
- This creates a structure for continuous performance improvement through AI model (network) and software updates, enabling sustained value creation without hardware replacement.

6) Risks (Legal & Operational) and Potential Side Effects

Legal and Insurance Risks:
- Accelerated debate on manufacturer liability: FSD encouragement complicates accident liability issues.
- Potential for high premiums and demands for liability sharing in negotiations with insurers.
Operational Risks:
- Public Trust: Early accidents or negative reporting could lead to a sharp decline in adoption rates.
- Regulatory Change Risk: Divergent state regulations increase expansion costs.
Technical Risks:
- Recognition errors in edge cases (unusual situations), potential decrease in voxel accuracy in adverse weather or dark conditions.

7) Practical “Checklist” — 9 Things Investors and Observers Should Watch Right Now

Q3 Delivery Volume (Announcement Date & Regional Breakdown) — Verify delivery pull-forward.
FSD v14 Release Notes and Beta Expansion Announcements — Observe mentions of driver monitoring and automatic encouragement.
Follow-up Documents from Nevada DMV and Expansion of Operating Permits.
Number and Type of Accident Reports (Vehicle-to-Pedestrian, Parking Lots, etc.) — Analyze accident occurrences related to voxel-related scenarios.
Disclosure of Insurance Policy Conditions and Premium Changes.
Additional Disclosures and Demo Videos of Tesla Patents and Papers (related to voxels).
Announcement of Similar Features and Commercialization Timelines from Competitors (Waymo, Motional, etc.).
Changes in Positions in the Options and Futures Markets (e.g., reduction in short selling, large call purchases).
Government (Federal and State) Regulatory Guidelines and Hearings.

Conclusion (Investment and Strategic Perspective): What Should Be Done Now?

In the short term, the Q3 delivery announcement and the end of the tax credit are the most significant catalysts.
In the medium term, the FSD v14 features (especially driver encouragement and monitoring) and the real-world performance of voxel vision will be critical turning points for robo-taxi commercialization.
In the long term, as regulations and insurance frameworks are established, Tesla’s “software-based monetization (FSD subscriptions and robo-taxi fares)” could fundamentally alter its earnings structure.
In conclusion, this stock surge represents more than just momentum. Tesla’s technical and institutional execution (voxel 3D vision + Nevada test drives) is a structural battle to solve the “last 10cm” problem, and resolving this has the potential to dramatically increase the intrinsic value of the robo-taxi business model.

< Summary >Tesla’s stock surge is a combined result of pull-forwarded deliveries due to the end of the September EV tax credit, a technical chart rebound, and a shift in market sentiment. The hidden “driver encouragement” feature in FSD software suggests Tesla is pushing FSD towards actual replacement rather than just assistance. The voxel-based 3D vision patent (8 cameras, 10cm mapping) is a key technology to solve the last-mile challenges for robo-taxis, such as parking and pick-ups. The Nevada DMV’s test drive permit is a strategic choice for Tesla to quickly gather data and operational examples in the regulatory race, with two phases (testing → commercialization) remaining. Investors and observers should prioritize monitoring Q3 deliveries, FSD v14 release notes, Nevada-related documents, and accident/insurance reports.

[Related Articles…]

Tesla Delivery Volume Analysis and Quarterly Outlook — Summary of Earnings Scenarios Read Through Data

Robo-Taxi Commercialization: Summary of Regulations, Insurance, and Business Models

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 테슬라, 이틀 연속 6% + 7% 급등! 월가 비관론자들마저 입장 전환… 3분기 인도량·FSD·로보택시 기대 폭발

● Tesla’s 7 Surge-Vote Power, Musk’s Pay Deal, and Hidden Market Plays

The Core Content of Today’s Article:Analysis of the reasons behind today’s 7% surge.Implications of surging trading volume and the record date (September 15th) and shareholders’ meeting (November 6th) timing on stock prices.Key, previously undisclosed points from Robyn Denholm’s Bloomberg interview (compensation plan, voting structure, XAI’s stance).A practical checklist for shareholders and investors to review and act upon immediately.And, a comprehensive breakdown of “hidden risks and opportunities” that other news outlets often fail to cover.

Tesla’s First 7%+ Surge in a While — A Combined Impact of Trading Volume, Shareholder Meeting, and Compensation Plan

1) Key Factors Behind Today’s Surge (Timeline Perspective)

Today, Tesla’s stock price surged by over 7%.This surge is not attributable to a single news event but is the result of a confluence of cumulative factors.Firstly, expectations for Q3 deliveries and earnings (and anticipated performance) are steadily strengthening.Secondly, signs of improvement in interest rates and macroeconomic conditions are positively impacting the stock market as a whole.Thirdly, the expansion of real-world AI applications like Optimus and robotics, along with the widening of operational service areas, has boosted expectations for fundamental improvements.Fourthly, trading volume exploded to one of the top 10 levels in the past year (indicating a rapid inflow of buying interest).All these factors combined have acted as catalysts for a re-evaluation of the “stock price and market capitalization.”

2) The Subtle Timing of Trading Volume and the Record Date (September 15th)

The Plumxi (Block) Statement, disclosed a few days ago, lists September 15th as the record date.A surge in large-volume purchases just before the record date raises the possibility that someone aimed to secure voting rights (shareholder meeting voting power).”Block purchases” made just before the record date may not be simple trades but rather for the purpose of securing votes.In such cases, “stock price and trading volume” can be distorted in the short term, and there’s a risk of liquidity rapidly decreasing and volatility increasing after the record date.Furthermore, such timing-based purchases can also be made through hedging using options/swaps or through borrowed shares (stock lending).Consequently, trading around the record date presents an opportunity for short-term traders but requires risk management for medium- to long-term investors.

3) The Shareholder Meeting (November 6th) and the Significance of Voting Strategies

The shareholder meeting scheduled for November 6th this year will center on a vote regarding Elon Musk’s new compensation plan.The approval or rejection of this compensation plan is directly linked to the company’s operational momentum (CEO motivation) and future strategies (real-world AI and robotics businesses).The possibility of short-term purchases aimed at securing voting rights raises concerns about “vote distortion.”Korean shareholders can also exercise their voting rights through electronic voting or proxies via their securities firms, so it is essential to check official disclosures and announcements from their brokers.Especially before and after major events related to voting rights, strategic trades sensitive to “market capitalization” become frequent.

4) Key Takeaways from Robyn Denholm’s (Bloomberg) Interview

In the interview, Director Robyn Denholm clearly explained the essence of Elon Musk’s compensation plan.First condition: The first phase of compensation will commence only when the market capitalization, currently valued at approximately $1 trillion, reaches $2 trillion.Second condition: A mere increase in market capitalization is not enough; compensation will be paid only upon the simultaneous fulfillment of operational milestones (sales, subscriptions, robot and service performance, etc.).Examples of added operational milestones include: 20 million electric vehicle sales, 10 million FSD subscriptions, 1 million Optimus units, 1 million robotaxi units, etc.Ultimately, to receive all 12 compensation stages, a very high market capitalization target (a significantly high level in the long term based on figures presented in the interview) is required.The core message is that “Musk’s compensation is perfectly aligned with Tesla’s success.”Furthermore, Denholm mentioned Musk’s intention to reduce his political activities, stating that the board will evaluate the CEO based on his performance.Regarding XAI investment, the board expressed a neutral stance, explaining that Tesla’s real-world AI and XAI’s digital AI are distinct domains.

5) Hidden Points Not Well Covered by Other News (Most Important Content)

The “mega-volume trading” just before the record date may not only indicate a shift in institutional positioning but also the “temporary holding by external parties with the aim of influencing voting rights.”The key hidden point here is the “possibility of vote manipulation through derivatives such as stock lending, options, and total return swaps (TRS).”In other words, the stock price increase may not be a simple fundamental revaluation but a tactical purchase to gain voting influence.In this scenario, after the stock price surge, if holders rapidly realize their profits after the record date, a sharp correction could occur.Another hidden point is the timing mismatch with “index and ETF rebalancing.”When large ETF rebalancing or passive fund flows coincide with the period around the record date, the direction of liquidity supply/absorption can change abnormally.These factors are not well captured in news articles but have a significant impact on investors.

6) Practical Checklist (For Korean Shareholders and Investors, Immediate Actions)

Immediately check official filings (Plumxi Statement, 8-K, etc.).Verify stock ownership and lending status as of the record date (September 15th).Do not miss checking the agenda explanations and proxy instructions for the shareholder meeting (November 6th) from your securities firm.Closely monitor large block trades and Form 13D/13G/4 filings.Check for changes in market structure using options, futures, and stock lending (stock borrow) data.For short-term surges, pre-set strategies for phased selling/scaling and stop-loss rules.Long-term investors should understand that the compensation plan is “aligned with shareholder interests” but adjust their position sizes to prepare for renewed volatility after the voting game concludes.

7) Investment and Policy Implications (Medium to Long-Term Perspective)

Tesla’s direction is rapidly expanding from an EV focus to “real-world AI, robotics, and services.”The compensation plan structure strengthens the alignment with shareholder value while also motivating management.However, temporary risks of stock price distortion due to short-term trading related to voting persist.The possibility of conflict with regulatory risks (voting manipulation, market making activities, etc.) is also a monitoring item.Investors must re-evaluate risks and returns by considering all three pillars: “market capitalization, performance, and shareholder meetings.”

< Summary >Today’s 7% surge in Tesla’s stock is a result of a complex interplay of expectations for deliveries, fundamental upgrades, interest rates, and a surge in trading volume.Large-scale trading just before the record date (9/15) raises the possibility of purchases aimed at securing voting rights.The shareholder meeting (11/6) is a watershed moment for Musk’s compensation plan, which requires simultaneous fulfillment of market capitalization increases and operational milestones.Robyn Denholm’s interview reaffirmed the long-term alignment of the compensation plan (aligning shareholder interests with CEO incentives).The key hidden points not well covered by other outlets are the risks of short-term distortion caused by “securing votes using derivatives and stock lending” and the “interaction between rebalancing and the record date.”Korean shareholders are encouraged to actively exercise their voting rights through proxy voting and electronic voting instructions provided by their securities firms.

(Point Keywords: Stock Price, Market Capitalization, Earnings, Trading Volume, Shareholder Meeting)

*Source: [ 허니잼의 테슬라와 일론 ]

– 테슬라 오랜만에 시원한 7%대 상승! 심상치 않은 물량이 심상치 않은 시기에 몰려왔다

● US CPI data-shock or stability- Fed, Japan, tariff-risk nexus

[LIVE Instant Analysis] Key Implications of the US August CPI Results — Inflation Shock or Stabilization, and the Intersection of Fed, Japan, and Tariff Risks

Key Points Revealed in Advance — This article includes an instant analysis of the US CPI, the reality and time lag of PPI-to-CPI transmission, the ‘partial and asymmetrical’ impact of tariffs (import duties) on prices, an analysis of the Fed’s interest rate cut scenarios (baby cut vs. no cut), the timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate moves and yen carry risks, and strategies for ‘real-time inflation detection’ using AI and alternative data.Among these, three key aspects are particularly underexplored in other YouTube channels and news outlets: (1) Tariffs create an asymmetrical effect that disproportionately stimulates prices only within the US, (2) The 1-2 month average time lag for PPI declines to translate into CPI declines means short-term market reactions can be misleading, and (3) AI-based alternative indicators (card payment, satellite, transportation data) provide faster signals for the Fed’s ‘interest rate timing surveillance.’Now, let’s delve into the key points and practical interpretations, grouped by category and item, in chronological order.

Instant (Now) — Facts and Misconceptions Left by the August CPI Announcement

Headline and core CPI were in line with market expectations (core 3.1%, headline 2.9%, etc.).

However, a ‘slowing growth rate’ does not mean prices have fallen, but rather that prices are still in a phase of ‘year-over-year increase.’

The month-over-month slowdown in PPI (Producer Price Index) is a positive signal, but PPI-to-CPI transmission affects CPI with an average time lag of 1-2 months.

A decline in energy prices was a factor pulling down the overall headline number, but core goods prices (affected by tariffs) actually showed an increase.

Housing costs (shelter) continue to contribute significantly, supporting the ‘baseline’ of inflation.

Key Messages — 3 Misconceptions by the Market

First, a decrease in the inflation rate does not equal a decrease in prices.

Second, a drop in PPI does not immediately lead to a drop in CPI (time lag must be considered).

Third, tariffs (import duties) disproportionately stimulate US CPI through goods prices, while global supply adjustments can put downward pressure on prices in non-US regions.

Short-Term (Next Few Weeks) — Fed and Market Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts

The Fed continues to maintain a ‘data-dependent’ stance.

With the August CPI meeting expectations, expectations for a ‘full 0.50% cut’ have weakened, and the ‘baby cut (0.25%)’ scenario has become more prevalent.

However, if employment indicators (unemployment claims, labor force participation rate, etc.) show signs of weakening, the Fed may consider accelerating the timing or implementing more aggressive cuts.

Ultimately, the Fed’s priority is shifting somewhat from ‘prices’ to ‘full employment,’ making the direction of employment data crucial.

Medium-Term (September-December) — Risks Created by the Interplay of FOMC, BOJ, and Tariffs

The market will likely experience significant short-term volatility around the September FOMC meeting.

If the Fed signals strongly about cuts between September and November, it could trigger a dollar depreciation and a stock market rally.

Concurrently, the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could stimulate yen appreciation and yen carry unwind risks.

An increase in US tariffs (or intensified trade restrictions) could directly push up goods prices, limiting the Fed’s room for rate cuts.

Therefore, if the timing of ‘US interest rate cuts’ and ‘Japanese interest rate hikes’ overlaps, sharp fluctuations in exchange rates and capital flows (such as yen carry unwinding) could become a reality.

Medium-Term Scenario-Based Strategies and Responses

Scenario A — Gradual CPI Slowdown + Weakening Employment: The Fed signals a gradual baby cut (0.25%), leading to bond strength and positive sentiment for stocks.

Scenario B — Resurging CPI (Tariffs, Service Stickiness) + Strong Employment: Fed rate cuts are delayed, with expectations for rates to be maintained/increased, leading to increased volatility in stocks and bonds, and weakness in risk assets.

Scenario C — Japan’s Additional Rate Hike (Earlier than Expected) + US Fed Lack of Synchronization: Global capital flows could lead to a sharp decline in emerging market currencies and stocks.

Investor Response — Secure portfolio liquidity, maintain defensive positions in dollars, bonds, and gold, and recommend real-time rebalancing using AI-based alternative indicators.

Long-Term (2026~) — Liquidity Rally, Stablecoins, and AI to Reshape Market Structure

My Outlook (2026) Key Points: A liquidity rally will continue, with ‘risk factors’ being tariffs, central bank policy divergences, and stablecoin regulatory battles.

The stablecoin war will alter payment systems, dollar substitution, and financial intermediation costs, impacting long-term financial stability.

AI and alternative data (card payments, POS, satellite, transportation data) will serve as ‘ultra-short-term leading indicators’ for both central banks and investors.

Specifically, AI-based price crawling and consumer behavior analysis can detect early shifts (trend changes) in the CPI.

The Microstructure of Tariffs and Inflation — An Underexplored Area by Other Media

Tariffs do not simply increase overall prices by a fixed percentage.

Tariff burdens are distributed and absorbed through the margin allocation processes of importers, distributors, manufacturers, and retailers.

Consequently, tariffs create an asymmetrical effect that disproportionately pushes up ‘domestic goods CPI’ in specific sectors (durables, imported consumer goods).

Furthermore, global supply chain adjustments (exporters finding alternative demand sources) can lower prices in some countries, leading only the US to experience higher inflation.

Techniques for Interpreting Employment Data — The Meaning Behind the Numbers

A ‘slowing pace of increase’ in non-farm payrolls is not an employment shock, but a ‘slowing pace of growth.’

When interpreting a rise in the unemployment rate, it’s crucial to consider the labor force participation rate, hourly wages, and real wage changes in conjunction with the absolute figure (e.g., 4.3% → 4.4%).

If the Fed is placing greater emphasis on employment, an abnormal sharp decline in employment-related data will accelerate rate cuts.

Practical Inflation Monitoring Using AI and Data Science (Differentiated Insights)

Traditional statistics have compilation delays, so using AI with transactional data, card payments, logistics tracking, and web scraping can yield signals 2-6 weeks earlier.

Example: Creating a real-time ‘retail price index’ with AI can predict PPI-to-CPI transmission more rapidly.

Additionally, satellite and AIS (ship location) data can detect supply bottlenecks early, warning of potential commodity price increases.

These alternative indicators offer practical value for determining the timing of Fed policy, corporate inventory strategies, and investor hedging strategies.

Investment and Policy Checklist — Practical Items for Immediate Use

1) Check CPI and PPI Numbers: Examine not only headline but also core goods, core services, and shelter trends in detail.

2) Monitor Tariff-Related News and Specific Items (Consumption share of tariffed goods) — Identify sectors with concentrated impact (e.g., home appliances, durables).

3) Analyze Fed Statements and Powell’s Remarks Tone in conjunction with Employment Data (unemployment claims, participation rate, wages).

4) Check BOJ Meeting Schedules and Valuation Points (yen, Japanese government bond yields) — Prepare for yen carry risks.

5) Adopt AI and Alternative Data Alerts to preemptively detect abnormal signals (transportation bottlenecks, surge in retail prices, etc.).

What to Focus On Now — Practical Priorities

Short-Term: Closely monitor the PPI-to-CPI time lag (1-2 months) and the next release of employment data.

Medium-Term: FOMC communications from September to December, the BOJ’s rate schedule (possibility in October-December), and reports on tariff expansions.

Long-Term: Developments in stablecoin regulation and the regulation/commercialization of AI-driven payment and data services.

< Summary >The US August CPI met market expectations, but this should not be mistaken for ‘price stabilization.’While a PPI slowdown is positive, it takes 1-2 months to reflect in CPI.Tariffs have an asymmetrical effect, disproportionately stimulating goods prices within the US.The Fed is watching both price and employment data, with the baby cut (0.25%) scenario gaining traction, but a weakening employment picture could accelerate cuts.Japan’s potential interest rate hike (BOJ) creates risks of yen carry unwinding and exchange rate volatility; the timing synchronization between US and Japanese rate policies is crucial.AI and alternative data can detect real-time inflation precursors, providing a differentiated edge in investment and policy decisions.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– [LIVE] 미국 8월 CPI 어떻게 나올까? ‘물가쇼크’ vs ‘물가안정’ [즉시분석]

Tesla’s Surge-EV Tax Rush-FSD Leap-Robo-Taxi Play, Market’s Hidden Card-Musk’s Pay-Data Shock-Fed’s Tariff-Yen Twist