FOMC’s “Two” Cuts – NVIDIA, Meta, Quantum: Hype or Hope?

● FOMC ‘Two’ Rate Cuts Speculation Only – Post-FOMC Market Drivers NVIDIA-Intel, Meta’s Smart Glasses, Quantum Computing**Key Takeaways*** **FOMC Dot Plot** A forecast, not a promise. Rate cuts depend on CPI and employment data.* **DollarBond Anomaly** Signals position restructuring, not just policy impact.* **NVIDIA-Intel Stake** Strategic partnership, political alignment, and regulatory risks, not an acquisition.* **Meta Smart Glasses** Early stage of form factor shift enterprise adoption precedes consumer replacement.* **Quantum Computing IonQ** Momentum from government RD long-term bet requires caution.* **Action Plan** Data-dependent strategy – cautiously position pre-event, aggressively pivot to growth sectors on positive data.

Annual ‘Two’ Rate Cuts are Just a Forecast — Real Market Variables After FOMC (NVIDIA, Intel, Meta Smart Glasses, Quantum Computing, etc.)

This article contains all the following key points:

Interpretation of the 9/17 FOMC decision’s “dot plot” and practical investment scenarios (probability of annual rate cuts vs. data dependency)
The hidden meaning behind the market’s misinterpretation of “dollar and bond’s unusual reaction” (a point less covered by other news)
The significance of NVIDIA’s investment in Intel: strategic and political implications beyond acquisition rumors, and associated risks
The realistic timeline for a form factor shift suggested by Meta’s $1,100 smart glasses launch
The tangible investment impact of quantum computing (IonQ, etc.) and collaboration news with the US government
A practical reinterpretation of institutional scenarios (JP Morgan, UBS, etc.) for buying and positioning strategiesReading this will allow you to immediately create an action plan for “when the next trigger will be, and where to capture risks and opportunities.”

1) FOMC (9/17) Summary — The Key is ‘The Dot Plot is Just a Forecast’

Fed Chair Powell announced a 25bp rate cut, and the dot plot (projected rate path for the year) still indicated further cuts (1-2 more).However, the most important point is that the dot plot itself is a “projection,” not a “policy commitment.”In other words, the path can change at any time depending on CPI (inflation) and employment data.

Additional points the market is overlooking or under-reporting:

The median of the dot plot (2 cuts) is a “signal of possibility,” not a “confirmed commitment.”
Powell’s remarks can be interpreted as a “risk management (insurance) cut” — meaning a cautious easing.
There’s a significant gap between the real economy (consumption, employment) and financial markets (stocks, bonds, dollar), which could lead to a longer transmission lag for policy effects.

Remaining FOMC Schedule (2025):

October 28-29 (Policy Meeting), December 9-10 (Policy Meeting).Key Macro Triggers: October 3 & October 15 (Employment and CPI announcement dates highlighted by institutions) — These are the critical dates cited by JP Morgan for their October “surge scenario.”

2) Market Reaction (9/17-9/18) — Disjointed Stock, Bond, and Dollar Movements

Market Movement Summary:

New York Stock Market: Significant differentiation by sector and stock (Nasdaq mixed, Dow up, Russell highly volatile).
Bonds: Distortion in the yield curve, with long-term maturities (30Y) rising.
Dollar: Typically, rate cuts lead to dollar weakness, but this time it showed temporary strength (abnormal).

Insights Less Covered by Other Media:

The dollar’s strength is likely due not just to policy effects but also to position unwinding, corporate dollar demand, and global capital flow rebalancing (a mix of risk-on/off).
The simultaneous occurrence of strong long-term bonds (falling yields) and a temporarily strong dollar is a “position re-framing” process — expect increased volatility until future macro data (especially CPI) is released.

Investment Implications:

Short-term: Recommend dollar-cost averaging and options-based risk management for volatile markets.
Mid-term: If inflation stabilizes, growth sectors like AI and cloud are likely to strengthen (according to UBS) — however, be prepared for valuation adjustments.

3) NVIDIA’s Investment in Intel: ‘Acquisition or Strategic Partnership?’

Event Overview: NVIDIA announced it would buy $5 billion worth of Intel stock and jointly develop custom CPUs for integration into its AI infrastructure, causing Intel’s stock to surge (up ~28% pre-market).

Key Points Reporters Often Miss (What readers of this article must know):

This is not an “acquisition.” The equity investment signals a partnership, and NVIDIA’s goal is likely “ecosystem expansion (integrating its AI infrastructure).”
Political Significance: This could be a result of aligning interests between the government and industry, tied to the Trump administration’s semiconductor self-reliance and industrial policies (industry complementing government support for Intel).
Regulatory and Governance Risks: If NVIDIA increases its influence through its stake in Intel, complex conflicts of interest and regulatory risks could arise in technology and production roadmaps.
Operational Risks: It remains uncertain whether Intel’s financial structure and foundry capabilities will yield immediate results. The short-term stock surge is a “momentum play,” not an indication of permanent fundamental improvement.

Proposed Investment Strategy:

Recommend a “selective exposure” approach to semiconductors (Intel presents both risk and return).
For Intel-related positions, enter in tranches and clearly define stop-loss points until partnership terms (equity ratio, management participation, IP licensing, etc.) are disclosed.
Simultaneously monitor NVIDIA’s “satellites” (supply chain, server, memory, and foundry-related stocks).

4) Meta’s $1,100 Smart Glasses Launch — How Realistic Is It?

Key Product Features Announced by Meta:

Equipped with a full-color, high-resolution mini-display on the upper right lens.
Features AR functionalities such as checking messages, previewing photos and videos, and navigation.
Priced around $1,100, competing in a form factor with established partners like Ray-Ban.

Key Analysis (Aspects Less Covered by Other Media):

For a form factor shift, the “ecosystem (apps, content, AI integration)” is more crucial than the hardware itself.
Meta’s strengths lie in its AI talent and control over content. However, widespread consumer adoption will require overcoming UX, battery, privacy, and price barriers.
The timeline for smart glasses to replace smartphones is not short-term. However, AR layers are more likely to spread faster in industrial applications (field operations, logistics, healthcare).
Meta’s smart glasses success will be driven by “how much advertising and commerce can be generated on the AR platform,” rather than just “hardware sales.”

Investment Points:

Meta is one of UBS’s recommended stocks, with potential mid-term momentum driven by a combination of dividends (partial) and AI content strategies.
However, early user and enterprise demand should be viewed separately from consumer demand (industrial needs are more likely to be met first).

5) Quantum Computing (IonQ, etc.) Rebound — The Difference Between ‘Theme’ and ‘Real Program’

Recent News: Quantum computing companies like IonQ have seen their stock prices rebound, driven by momentum from collaboration news and joint research programs with the US Department of Energy and federal agencies. Analyst target price upgrades have also been reported.

Key Insight:

Quantum computing is a “long-term structural bet,” and short-term stock surges are based on news momentum and expectations of government contracts.
Collaboration with the government and military (space, energy) could accelerate the commercialization roadmap, but various technical challenges (error rates, scaling) remain before widespread adoption.
Companies like IonQ have the potential to win relatively based on their technological advantages and ecosystem partnerships (cloud, defense research).

Investment Stance:

For momentum followers (short-term): Essential to have profit-taking plans when news emerges and enter in tranches.
For long-term investors: Maintain a small position size with risk capital, and track technological advancements and contract performance.

6) Institutional Scenarios (Empty Talk): JP Morgan vs. UBS Reinterpreted

JP Morgan: If both September employment and CPI data are “positive,” expect a “stock surge” in October (even mentioning S&P 500 reaching 7000).UBS: Tech, AI, and software are likely to see significant gains during the rate cut cycle, recommending Meta, MS, Amazon, Eaton, and Schneider.

My Interpretation (More Practical Perspective Than Others):

JP Morgan’s scenario is “conditional.” Both data points must improve, and this must coincide with the Q3 earnings season (the third week of October).
UBS’s recommendations are based on a “normal scenario (no recession).” If a recession occurs, growth stocks could underperform, unlike in the first half of the year.
Therefore, investors must prepare for both a “momentum plan” (aggressive when data is favorable) and a “defensive plan” (defensive sectors when inflation and employment worsen).

7) Practical Investment Checklist (Grouped by Sector/Item Action Plan)

Macroeconomic Aspects

Key Trigger Monitoring: September Employment Data, September CPI, October 3rd & 15th announcements, October 28-29 FOMC, December 9-10 FOMC.
Strategy: Data-dependent. If CPI/employment improves, be aggressive in growth/AI sectors; otherwise, shift to value/defensive stocks with strong cash flow.

Equities (By Sector)

AI Software (Not just NVIDIA-centric): Long-term structural beneficiary, manage valuation through dollar-cost averaging.
Semiconductors (Including Intel): Intel has revaluation potential but carries significant risk – limit positions until partnership terms are announced.
Meta & Big Tech: Potential beneficiaries of form factor changes like smart glasses – but beware of short-term momentum overheating.
Quantum Computing: Theme bets should be small; increase exposure after verifying government contracts and benchmark performance.

Bonds, FX, Commodities

Bonds: Expect increased interest rate volatility, essential to monitor the yield curve (risk of divergence between long and short-term rates).
Dollar: Current unusual strength is short-term – focus on global capital flows and corporate demand.
Gold: Potential beneficiary of rate cut momentum, but sensitive to dollar fluctuations.

Risk Management

Dollar-Cost Averaging & Profit Taking: Essential in volatile periods.
Stop-Loss & Hedging: Prepare for extreme downturns with options (puts) or inverse ETFs.
Event Risk: Recommended to reduce positions or hedge before FOMC, CPI, employment, and earnings seasons.

8) News Timeline (Organized Chronologically)

2025-09-17: FOMC decides on a 25bp rate cut. Dot plot indicates further cuts within the year (up to 2 more) — however, the dot plot is just a forecast.
2025-09-17~18: Mixed market reaction — sector differentiation in Nasdaq, S&P, Dow; increased volatility in Russell. Observe unusual movements in the dollar and bonds.
2025-09-18 (Around): NVIDIA announces stake investment in Intel ($5 billion) → Intel surges pre-market. Triggers related political and supply chain discussions.
2025-09-18: Meta unveils its first smart glasses priced at $1,100 — AR interface and content ecosystem are key.
Recently (Within weeks): Rebound in quantum computing stocks like IonQ → Momentum from US government/Department of Energy collaboration news.
2025-10-03 & 10-15: “Key Macro Triggers” identified by JP Morgan (Employment and CPI announcement dates).
2025-10-28~29: FOMC (Potential confirmation of future rate path).
2025-12-09~10: Year-end FOMC (Final policy direction for the year to be decided).

9) The ‘Decisive Line’ Not Mentioned by Other News (Key Insight)

The expectation of “two” additional rate cuts this year is just market expectation; the real game-changer is “the next CPI and employment data.”In other words, until the event (data), a strategy of “phased, defensive positioning,” and then quickly shifting to a more concentrated approach (growth/AI focus) if the data is favorable, is optimal — this is a practical tip that is “subtly” omitted from most broadcasts and articles.

< Summary >

The FOMC’s dot plot is merely a forecast; annual rate cuts are data-dependent.
The unusual movements of the dollar and bonds are signals of position restructuring, not just policy effects.
NVIDIA’s investment in Intel is a result of strategic partnership and policy alignment, not an acquisition, and carries regulatory and governance risks.
Meta’s smart glasses are the start of a form factor shift, but smartphone replacement is not short-term; industrial adoption will come first.
The quantum computing rebound is momentum driven by government R&D and contract news; approach long-term bets with small amounts.
Practical Strategy: Before events (September employment/CPI, October data, FOMC), engage in phased/hedged positioning; if data is favorable, increase exposure to growth sectors like AI/cloud.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

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