Tesla’s AI, Robotics – Nvidia’s Circular Funding – Trump’s Tariff Wars – Powell’s Overvalued Warning – Fed’s Inflation Dilemma

● Tesla’s 500 Target-AI, Robotics Fuel Piper Sandler’s Bold Call

Tesla Target Price $500! The Real Reason Piper Sandler Gave Top Value to AI & Robotics, and 7 Key Points We Might Miss.

Key takeaways from this article: The logic behind Piper Sandler’s $500 target price and the reality of the ‘180x PE’.Key takeaways from this article: The structural meaning of the $100 billion (approx. 140 trillion KRW) partnership between NVIDIA and OpenAI, and its hidden risks.Key takeaways from this article: The practical competitiveness of Chinese electric vehicle (EV) companies and the essential difference in Tesla’s “data, chips, talent” advantage.Key takeaways from this article: The technological gap between Optimus and Chinese humanoid robots, and the commercialization scenario for robotics.Key takeaways from this article: Risks and investment checklists (valuation) that investors and policymakers must consider.

1) Piper Sandler’s $500 Target — The Logic Behind the Numbers

Piper Sandler has reclassified Tesla not as a mere EV manufacturer, but as an AI-centric innovation company.As a result, they applied a 180x PE ratio to the projected EPS for 2026, setting a target stock price of $500.This is not based on ‘EV stock valuation methods,’ but on ‘AI/Software & Robotics’ valuation approaches.A key point less emphasized by other media is that Piper directly confirmed the market’s perception of Tesla “creating 0 to 1” through on-site (China) due diligence.In essence, if the market’s focus shifts from ‘product sales’ to ‘data, platform, and robotics,’ multiples can change drastically.However, for this multiple to be justified, improvements in Software ARPU, monetization of robotaxis and Optimus, and a better margin structure are necessary.The most crucial, unseen prerequisite here is ‘whether investors will substantively re-evaluate Tesla as an AI company.’

2) NVIDIA-OpenAI Deal ($100 Billion) — A Signal of Shifting Tides in the Tech War

A circular structure has been created where NVIDIA secures non-voting shares from OpenAI, and OpenAI makes bulk purchases of NVIDIA chips.The positive implication of this structure is the ability to expand AI infrastructure and enhance revenue through the “alignment of hardware (chips) and software (AI models).”Conversely, the hidden risks include criticism of “circular revenue” and antitrust regulatory risks.Furthermore, this deal could make market entry difficult for competitors (AMD, Intel) and emerging AI chip companies, potentially intensifying ecosystem concentration.From Tesla’s perspective, the importance of the chip supply chain and independent design is noteworthy.If Tesla continues its in-house chip design and manufacturing, it can maintain its resilience against external shocks.However, if the NVIDIA-OpenAI alliance exclusively reshapes the AI infrastructure, the landscape of global competition for smaller players could change.

3) The True Competitiveness of Chinese EVs — Interpreting Piper’s Field Report

Strengths of Chinese companies: Improved in-house design capabilities for automotive semiconductors and electronic components have reduced cost and supply chain risks.Strengths of Chinese companies: Over-the-air (OTA) update speeds are often faster than Tesla’s, giving them an edge in customer response times.Strengths of Chinese companies: With a massive domestic market and a combination of subsidies and financing, their price competitiveness is extremely high.However, the core point Piper emphasized is that they are “good at scaling from 1 to 100, but lack the capability to create from 0 to 1.””0 to 1” signifies the ability to create new operating principles, collect and integrate large-scale multimodal data, and integrate complex systems (autonomous driving + robotics).Another unseen factor is “internationalization” and “diversity of data at scale.”While Chinese companies grow rapidly due to their large domestic market, it will take time to secure diverse global road, regulatory, and data environments.

4) Tesla’s Four Key Competitive Advantages — Data, Talent, Chips, Engineering Organization

Data: Tesla has already accumulated hundreds of billions of kilometers of real-world driving data, giving it an advantage in the quality and diversity of autonomous driving training.Talent (Human Resources): A concentrated group of engineers specializing in AI and robotics, along with domain expertise.Chips: In-house AI chip design enables hardware-software optimization.Engineering Organization: Faster expansion into products (from cars to robotics) and superior system integration capabilities compared to other OEMs.These four elements connect not just product competition, but “platform competition.”The combination of data and chips can lead to exponential improvements in model performance, which in turn leads to higher valuations.

5) Optimus vs. Chinese Humanoids — The Points of Practical Competition

Unitree G1’s “Anti-Gravity Mode” and HDMI (Unified Learning System) achievements demonstrate technological progress.However, the key to commercialization lies in “reliability, cost, and operational convenience.”For robots to replace human tasks in factories and logistics, they must be economical in terms of repeatability, safety, and maintenance costs.The crucial difference is the combination of “large-scale real-world data + simulation pipeline + low-cost hardware.”Tesla’s advantage is that its accumulated driving data and large-scale software deployment (OTA) system can be transferable to robot operations.A point often overlooked in the news here is the “simplification of the learning pipeline.”In other words, if multiple tasks can be performed through single learning without complex reward design, product development speed will accelerate rapidly.This is critical for robots learning everyday actions.

6) Synergies of Robotaxis and Neuralink and Their Social Implications

Tesla’s robotaxis have the potential to go beyond mere transportation innovation and solve mobility issues for people with disabilities and the elderly.Developing wheelchair-accessible vehicles is not just a technical challenge but is crucial from the perspective of “social impact.”The potential integration with Neuralink creates a larger picture of reducing human physical limitations through mobility + neural interfaces.What is important here but often overlooked in the news is “economies of scale and regulatory compliance.”For robotaxis to become commonplace, they must achieve compatibility with insurance, safety, and local government regulations, and this process will determine commercialization timing.

7) Financial & Sales Metrics and the Decisive Meaning of Model 2

Recent weekly sales based on China’s insurance registrations (17,300 units, +12.7% week-over-week, +25.6% year-over-year) show a short-term rebound.However, on a quarterly and annual basis, the recovery is not yet complete (cumulative year-to-date -5.9%, etc.).Piper’s 2026 assumptions include 1.9 million units sold, with 350,000 of those being Model 2.Model 2 is both a risk and an opportunity.Its actual success will depend on its price positioning, margins, durability, and how much it cannibalizes (or expands) the existing lineup.If Model 2 is merely a “scaled-down Model Y,” its impact will be limited.Conversely, if it creates a completely new price point and customer segment, the growth curve could become steep again.

Investment Perspective Summary — Points We Don’t Often See in Other News

Piper’s high PE ratio hinges on a “shift in investor mindset.”That is, the valuation will be completely different depending on whether Tesla is viewed as a traditional automotive company or an AI platform.The NVIDIA-OpenAI structure has the potential to grant excess profits to certain companies by increasing AI infrastructure concentration.This also escalates antitrust risks and the possibility of regulatory intervention.Chinese companies excel in execution speed and pricing, but Tesla holds an advantage in data, global validation, and regulatory adaptation.The success of Optimus and the robotics business will be determined at the “intersection of technological leadership and commercialization.”Investment Checklist: Data growth rate, Software ARPU, robotics monetization metrics, in-house chip shipments, Model 2 margin assumptions.

Policy & Industrial Implications

For policymakers worldwide, the balance between antitrust, export controls, and industrial subsidies becomes critical.The concentration of AI and semiconductors amplifies strategic risks (supply chain, technological sovereignty).For companies, chip self-sufficiency, data governance, and proactive engagement with safety regulations will determine competitive advantages.From a labor market perspective, the commercialization of robotics will trigger long-term structural changes, necessitating retraining and social safety net preparation.

< Summary >Piper Sandler’s $500 target is not based on sales volume but on a “re-evaluation of Tesla as an AI and robotics company.”The $100 billion NVIDIA-OpenAI partnership simultaneously amplifies AI infrastructure concentration and regulatory risks.Chinese EVs are strong in execution and price, but Tesla has an advantage in data and global verification.The competition between Optimus and Chinese humanoid robots is a battle not only for technological advancement but also for commercialization, cost, and safety.Investors must differentiate their positioning based on whether they view Tesla as an EV or an AI platform.

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 테슬라 목표가 500달러! 파이퍼 샌들러 중국 추격에도 AI·로보틱스로 최고 밸류 부여한 이유는?

● Nvidia-OpenAI 100B Deal Sparks ‘Circular Funding’ Fears, Market Shaken Investors Beware

Nvidia to OpenAI $100B Deal and Circular Investment Controversy — Market Reaction, Hidden Risks, and 7 Things Investors Must Check Right Now

Key takeaways from this article:1) The reality of the suspected “circular investment (money shuffling)” in Nvidia’s announced $100 billion investment deal, and a reinterpretation from accounting and demand perspectives.2) A chronological breakdown of the simultaneous market impacts from the Nasdaq shock (approx. -1%), Micron’s earnings, and Powell’s remarks.3) Hidden risks the industry doesn’t talk about — related-party transactions, supply chain, policy, and tax variables.4) True AI demand indicators and the long-term compute demand implications of the spread of inference models.5) A practical investor checklist (short/long strategies, risk management, position adjustments).Now, let’s break it down step by step, chronologically and by group/item.

Event Timeline: Announcement → Reaction → Earnings → Message

Nvidia-OpenAI Investment Announcement (D0)Nvidia announced a large-scale funding (approx. $100B) to OpenAI.Immediately after the announcement, some analysts raised concerns about “circular investment.”

Market Reaction (D0~D1)The Nasdaq index fell by about 1%.Nvidia’s stock price dropped by about 2.8% after market close.Reports of Bernstein analysts’ circular investment concerns spread through Bloomberg and other media.

Micron Earnings Announcement (D1 After Market Close)Micron’s earnings exceeded consensus.Interpreted as a leading indicator for the semiconductor industry, it provided a short-term market stabilization factor.

Powell’s Remarks (Mid-point)The lack of a clear hint regarding interest rate cuts led to some easing of expectations.

Comprehensive InterpretationThe short-term correction was a complex result of the announcement shock + psychological uncertainty (circular investment controversy) + policy uncertainty.

The Reality of the Circular Investment Controversy — What’s the Issue?

Basic LogicNvidia provides funds to OpenAI → OpenAI purchases GPUs for model operation and inference → The buyer is ultimately Nvidia → Revenue is attributed to Nvidia.Criticism arises that this structure, if repeated, leads to “money circulation.”

Accounting and Real Economic PerspectiveInvestment (Equity/Convertible, etc.) and Purchase (Revenue) are different accounting flows.The real issue lies in the “independence of decision-making” and the “marketability of the transaction (arm’s length).”If OpenAI commits to preferential purchase from Nvidia without competitive bidding, or if there are contractual benefits, regulatory and shareholder concerns will grow.

Scale of the IssueUnlike past deals in the hundreds of millions to billions, $100B has a significant impact on the system (pricing, supply priority).Large sums are more likely to attract the attention of third parties, competitors, and regulators.

Practical Suspicion Points (What Investors Should Check)

Transaction Structure: Confirm if it’s a simple stake, preferred stock/convertible bonds, or a conditional transaction.
Existence of contractual preferential supply clauses.
Revenue recognition timing: The point and price level at which Nvidia “sells” products to OpenAI.
Independent audit and disclosure: Disclosure related to related-party transactions.

Additional Risks Not Widely Covered by the Media (Monopoly, Policy, Tax, etc.)

Regulatory (Antitrust) Risk

The risk that supply advantage could hinder market competition.
EU and US antitrust authorities could raise concerns about “vertical integration” and exclusionary effects of the transaction.

Supply Chain and Allocation Priority Risk

If Nvidia prioritizes GPU supply to specific partners (like OpenAI), it could distort costs and demand for other customers.
Distortion of price signals (ASP) could lead to misjudgment of bubble-like demand in the overall semiconductor market.

Tax and Capital Flow Risk

Large-scale capital movements could lead to controversies regarding transfer pricing, profit allocation, and tax structure optimization.
If investment leads to repurchase, it could be classified as inter-company transactions, creating tax and disclosure risks.

Financial Soundness and Liquidity Risk

Conflict between Nvidia’s cash asset management and capital allocation priorities (shareholder returns vs. business investment).
Uncertainty of investment recovery if OpenAI’s fund utilization plan is not clear.

Is the Demand Real? — Industry Evidence and Hidden Indicators

Official Comments and Industry Consensus

Nvidia, cloud providers, and software companies have all expressed “strong demand for inference infrastructure.”
This industry consensus is a signal supporting the reality of the demand.

Real Demand Verification Indicators Not Widely Covered Abroad

Tracking changes in GPU backlogs (order wait times): Rising wait times are a strong signal of actual demand.
Cloud instance/pricing fluctuations (especially spot/on-demand prices for GPU instances): Can confirm increased utilization.
Increased investment in data center power and cooling: Empirical evidence of physical infrastructure demand.
Whether inference costs (cost per compute) are decreasing: Lower costs can lead to a surge in usage.
Increased token consumption and API calls per model (can be verified through some public data or vendor reports).

Implications of the Spread of Inference Models

Inference models create demand for large volumes of repetitive compute (serving).
While training is a large event, inference generates consistent daily demand, forming a strong long-term compute demand base.

Market Interpretation: Is This a Bubble or a Trend Reversal?

Two Scenarios Summarized

Overheating (Bubble) Scenario: When prices rise based solely on numbers without actual investment → purchase → demand indicators.
Structural Growth Scenario: When actual demand increases due to the spread of inference models, leading to improvements in financial performance and indicators.

My Judgment (Including Basis)

Currently, it is in a “self-reinforcing feedback” phase, where stock price rise → fundraising → reinvestment → demand increase are intertwined.
Since actual demand (cloud usage, ASP, earnings of companies like Micron) is being confirmed across the industry, it’s difficult to consider it a “complete bubble.”
However, due to the scale, regulatory, disclosure, and governance risks must certainly be factored in as discounts.

Investor Practical Checklist — What to Check and Act On Immediately

Position Review (Short-term Traders)

Reconfirm stop-loss and take-profit rules in preparation for increased volatility.
Monitor for spread and liquidity deterioration before/after news events (regulatory investigations, detailed disclosures).

Portfolio Reallocation (Medium to Long-term Investors)

Adjust holding proportions for core positions (Nvidia, etc.) after “valuation reassessment.”
Redesign sector exposure (Semiconductors (Micron), Cloud (CoreWeave, etc.), AI Software (Inference Platforms)).

Risk Hedging

Hedge downside risk with options (puts) or partially hedge with related ETFs.
Strengthen diversification (geographical/industry) considering regulatory risks.

Monitoring Item List (Priority)

Key points of Nvidia-OpenAI transaction agreements (disclosures).
GPU backlog and ASP trends.
Cloud provider GPU usage/pricing data.
Inquiries/investigations from regulatory bodies (FTC, EU competition authorities).
Quarterly earnings and guidance from leading indicator companies like Micron.

Competitor and Ecosystem Impact — From AMD, Intel, and Cloud Provider Perspectives

Changes in Competitive Landscape

If Nvidia’s dominance strengthens, AMD and Intel’s pricing and market share strategies may change.
Competitors may counter with subsidies, partnerships, and open-source community support.

Impact on Cloud Providers

As the competition for GPU acquisition intensifies, cloud providers will strengthen their strategies for price pass-through or differentiating their AI-as-a-service offerings.
Some customers will attempt to mitigate supply risks through multi-vendor strategies.

Ecosystem Ripple Effects

Software and service companies will need to revise their product pricing strategies based on changes in inference costs.
Changes in the funding environment for startups: Initial funding may become easier due to Nvidia’s capital inflow, but VCs might also impose excessive valuations due to benchmark distortions.

Concluding Interpretation & Differentiated Insights (What Other News Often Misses)

Key Message Summary

On the surface, it appears as “large investment = positive,” but the $100B scale entails non-price risks such as supply, regulation, accounting, and tax.
The actual market is already reflecting a significant increase in inference demand, supported by leading indicators like Micron’s earnings.
What should be truly guarded against is the impact of “lack of financial and transactional transparency” on long-term trust (valuation).

Points Not Widely Covered Elsewhere (Summary)

Contract details of related-party transactions (especially preferential purchase, discount, and deadline clauses) can lead to regulatory issues and shareholder lawsuits.
Ecosystem distortions due to GPU supply priority (harming smaller cloud providers/startups) could hinder technological diversity in the long run.
Real demand verification indicators (backlogs, instance prices, power investment) are closer to the truth — focus on these indicators rather than emotional interpretations of news.

1) Review Nvidia-OpenAI Disclosure Documents — Prioritize understanding the transaction structure and terms.2) Track GPU Backlogs, ASP, and Cloud Instance Prices.3) Monitor Earnings and Guidance from Micron, Intel, and AMD.4) Examine Regulatory Body (FTC, EU) Actions and Corporate Disclosure Transparency.5) Position Rebalancing: Adjust weights to reflect valuation and risk premiums.

Short-term: Prepare stop-loss and hedging strategies to deal with news-driven volatility.Medium-term: Avoid excessive leverage until infrastructure demand is substantiated (confirm earnings/indicators).Long-term: The spread of inference models presents a structural opportunity — balanced exposure to semiconductors, cloud, and AI software is advantageous.

Nvidia’s large-scale investment in OpenAI has the potential to accelerate the structural growth of the AI industry.However, the $100B scale entails regulatory, disclosure, and ecosystem distortion risks beyond simple technological investment.Investors must guard against emotional news interpretation and manage positions by focusing on the details of actual demand indicators and disclosures.

< Summary >

Nvidia’s $100B investment announcement caused short-term market disruption, but signals of increasing inference demand across the industry and leading indicators like Micron’s earnings support structural growth.The key risks are regulatory and disclosure issues stemming from the transparency and scale of the transaction, and investors should prioritize verifying actual demand indicators such as backlogs, ASP, and cloud instance prices.Respond to short-term volatility with hedging, and for medium to long-term, approach semiconductors, cloud, and AI software with a balanced perspective, reflecting valuation and governance risks.

*Source: [ 내일은 투자왕 – 김단테 ]

– 엔비디아, OpenAI의 돌려막기 순환출자 논란

● Trump’s Total Reset Tariff Wars, Currency Battles, and Korea’s Survival. AI-driven reshoring, phased roadmaps, and strategic investment.

Trump’s ‘Total Reset’ Strategy: Something Stronger Than the Trade War is Coming. Can Korea Survive?

Key Points Covered in this Article:

The actual framework of the Trump-style ‘Total Reset’ and how tariffs are not just protectionism but long-term fiscal and strategic tools.
The next front after tariffs: currency wars and mechanisms to induce dollar depreciation.
Hidden impacts on the Korean economy—a structural crisis where domestic new investment and employment contract due to incentives for investment in the US.
Points not often covered by other media: the liquidity pathway from stablecoins and SLR relaxation to government bond purchases, and the scenario connecting this to dollar depreciation.
A 0-6/6-18/18-36 month response roadmap and specific strategies that the Korean government and corporations must implement immediately.
How AI and robotics serve as key means to resolve the ‘cost issue’ in large-scale reshoring (domestic US production).

1) Major Trends Chronologically: 2025 → 2026 → Beyond

2025:The trade war escalated, leading to global supply chain instability and inflationary pressures.Investment pressure on US and multinational corporations (tariff reduction for US investment) initiated a global reallocation of investment.

2026 (Critical Phase):The US utilizes tariffs as a ‘negotiation chip’ without completely abolishing them.Simultaneously, liquidity is expanded through SLR deregulation and stablecoins to stimulate demand for government bonds.The combination of liquidity and fiscal policy ultimately creates pressure for dollar depreciation (or a shift from dollar strength to weakness).Inducing dollar depreciation facilitates increased factory operation and investment in the US, aligning with the objective of economic stimulus for the mid-term elections.

Medium to Long Term (2026-2028+):Tariff levels are likely to be fixed at an ‘elevated’ base rate, higher than pre-Trump era, as a permanent feature.Geopolitical fragmentation of global supply chains will be structurally reinforced.AI, robots, and smart factories will resolve the cost issues of reshoring, making the return of advanced manufacturing centered in the US a reality.

2) Specific Mechanisms of the Trump-Style ‘Total Reset’

Tariffs are utilized as ‘revenue and negotiation chips.’Tariffs are likely to become a stable source of revenue rather than mere protectionism.Tariff increases create a transactional structure of “tariff reduction for US investment,” guiding companies to relocate their production bases.SLR deregulation and stablecoin liquidity connect to government bond purchases, influencing interest rates and exchange rates.Ultimately, the strategy involves ‘redesigning trade structures’ through the simultaneous operation of tariffs (fiscal) and monetary/financial (liquidity) policies.

(Points not often discussed by other media)The expansion of stablecoins can lead to the absorption of dollars (cash) during the issuance process, which then flows into government bond purchases by issuers.This pathway can influence dollar circulation, interest rates, and exchange rates in ways different from traditional monetary policy.

3) Direct and Structural Impacts on the Korean Economy

(1) Contraction of New Domestic InvestmentAs large corporations begin to fulfill their investment commitments in the US, their capacity for new domestic investment will diminish.Reduced investment is likely to weaken job creation capabilities, potentially triggering domestic demand slowdown.

(2) Chain Reaction of Worsening Employment and Domestic DemandInvestment contraction → reduced new employment → downward pressure on income → consumption slowdown.Korea, being a country with a vulnerable consumption base, could face greater impact from this trend.

(3) Restructuring of Exports to the USUS tariff and investment strategies will necessitate a re-evaluation of Korea’s export strategy to the US.If many companies opt for ‘US production and export,’ the acceleration of Korea’s manufacturing scale and value chain contraction could occur.

(4) Increased Policy and Sovereignty ConcernsThe US pressure of “we’ll cut tariffs if you invest” narrows the scope for economic sovereignty and policy choices.Concurrently, the necessity for multilateral cooperation with China, the EU, India, and others will increase.

4) Exchange Rate and Financial Market Scenarios and Korea’s Response

Possibility of the US Inducing Dollar WeaknessSLR relaxation, stablecoins, and interest rate cut pressures are factors that could weaken the dollar in the short term.Dollar weakness will promote increased productivity within the US, deepening the reconfiguration of global supply chains.

KRW (Won) Impact ScenarioDollar weakness creates pressure for relative won appreciation.Won appreciation could lead to deteriorating profit margins for export companies, further fueling domestic economic slowdown.

Financial Market Risk PointsTariff and exchange rate volatility → impact on corporate profits → potential for increased credit risk.Risk of a ‘liquidity trap’ where excessive risk asset overheating due to liquidity expansion leads to increased volatility.

5) Response Roadmap for the Korean Government and Corporations (By Period, Specific)

Immediate (0-6 Months) — Survival StrategyMandatory strengthening of FX hedging for exporters and adjustment of tax incentives.Negotiation with companies committed to US investment to secure conditions for maintaining minimal production and R&D in Korea.Design of emergency employment and consumption stimulus packages (targeting vulnerable groups and youth employment).

Short Term (6-18 Months) — Resistance and AdaptationPreservation of core value chains through tax benefits, subsidies, and deregulation for strategic national industries (semiconductors, batteries, materials, defense).Domestic investment matching funds utilizing public and private funds (to replace or supplement US investment).Promotion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and deregulation to incentivize domestic production.

Medium Term (18-36 Months) — Structural TransformationEnhancement of labor productivity through widespread adoption of smart factories, AI, and robotics.Strengthening of the social safety net alongside domestic job transition programs (retraining, job changes).Negotiations for global supply chain diversification (strengthening cooperation with ASEAN, India, EU).

Long Term (3-5 Years) — Strategic RealignmentTransition to a ‘high-value-added, digital manufacturing-centric’ economy through long-term realignment of industrial and education policies.Establishment of strategic foreign exchange and energy reserves and international cooperation frameworks.Securing future technologies (AI, quantum, advanced materials) through sovereign wealth funds and venture ecosystems.

6) Investment and Industry Strategy: Where to Bet

Defensive Portfolio (For Korean Investors)Essential consumer goods, healthcare, and education services among domestic consumer goods.Large domestic companies with stable dividends and cash flow.Export companies with concurrent FX hedging (managing the risk of won appreciation).

Aggressive Portfolio (Seizing Opportunities)Beneficiaries of large-scale US production reshoring: automation, robotics, industrial AI platforms.Semiconductors and advanced materials: core value chains with sustained demand beyond borders.Power, LNG, and energy infrastructure: benefiting from increased US demand and the reconfiguration of the energy value chain.Fintech and stablecoin infrastructure: potential for hyper-growth upon regulatory clarity.

Policy and Corporate Investment PrioritiesExpansion of government support for R&D and workforce retraining.Tax credits and accelerated depreciation benefits for facility investments.Support for automation and smart manufacturing for domestic small and medium-sized enterprises.

7) Essential Trends from an AI and 4th Industrial Revolution Perspective (What Korea Must Not Miss)

Expansion of Smart Factories:Virtually solves labor cost and workforce shortage issues through production site automation.The combination of robotics, digital twins, and edge AI is key.

Supply Chain AI Optimization:AI for demand forecasting, inventory management, and logistics optimization reduces costs associated with border reconfigurations.

Fusion of Industrial AI and Humanoid Robots:Replaces low-skilled labor while simultaneously creating demand for high-value-added workforces.

AI Security and Data Infrastructure:Data sovereignty and security are new geopolitical assets.Korea must secure strategic advantages in data infrastructure, cloud, and security.

Startup and Scale-up Strategy:Incentives to prevent AI talent outflow and parallel global cooperation (overseas R&D stations).Companies must concretize their AI transformation roadmaps on a 12-24 month basis.

8) Risk Checklist — Items Korean Companies and Investors Must Review

Confirmation of ‘survival condition’ clauses in US investment agreements (specifying minimum R&D and production levels in Korea).Re-evaluation of FX hedging and export pricing strategies.Securing alternative supply chains (e.g., ASEAN, India) and adjusting inventory policies.Estimation of labor transition costs and retraining budgets.Development of response scenarios for regulatory changes related to stablecoins and digital assets.

< Summary >The Trump-style Total Reset is a strategy aimed at fixing tariffs as a permanent revenue and negotiation tool.The visible trend is the inducement of dollar depreciation through liquidity supply via SLR relaxation and stablecoins, alongside tariffs.Korea faces the risk of shrinking domestic new investment and employment due to commitments for US investment.Solutions lie in short-term FX hedging and domestic demand stimulus, coupled with medium to long-term smart factory and AI transformation, and industrial policy realignment.The 0-6/6-18/18-36 month roadmap to be implemented immediately, along with AI and robot investment and supply chain diversification, creates both survival and opportunities.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– 트럼프의 ‘토탈 리셋’ 전략.. 관세전쟁 이후 더 강한것 온다. 한국은 살아남을 수 있을까? | 클로즈업 – 2026년의 ‘머니 트렌드’ 5편

● Powell warns stocks overvalued, AI infrastructure bottleneck looms, Micron’s HBM boom signals memory shift, Tether’s valuation hints at crypto integration, focus on power, cooling, HBM, pharma, quantum sectors.

Here’s the English translation of the provided text, maintaining the original formatting:

Key Takeaways from Last Night’s US Market — Powell’s Warning, the Inside Story of the OpenAI-Nvidia Deal, Power Bottlenecks, and Hidden Beneficiaries All at Once

By reading the following content, you will gain:An understanding of why Powell publicly warned that “stocks are overvalued” and the practical implications of internal Federal Reserve conflicts.The unaddressed power and infrastructure risks in the mega-deal (Stargate) between OpenAI and Nvidia, which the media often overlooks.The structural changes in the HBM and memory ecosystem indicated by Micron’s “explosive earnings.”The potential market impact of stablecoin (Tether) valuation.Sector investment ideas (power, cooling, HBM, pharmaceuticals, quantum) and specific stock ideas that are crucial to watch now from an investment perspective.

1) Market Overview — Last Night’s US Stock Market and Key Events

Powell (Fed Chair) publicly stated that “stocks are significantly overvalued.”The market is in a tug-of-war between Powell’s remarks and expectations for interest rate cuts.The key variable this week is the PCE (Core Inflation) data to be released on Friday.If the PCE is higher than expected, expectations for interest rate cuts could rapidly recede.Policy risks and political risks (potential for budget impasses and shutdowns) exist simultaneously.All these factors contribute to increased volatility in the US stock market.

2) Internal Federal Reserve Tensions (Key Insights Not Covered by Other News)

Powell’s public warning is a signal targeting “asset market overheating.”However, some within the Fed are strongly advocating for interest rate cuts, fearing a deterioration in employment.These internal disagreements imply that policy stances can shift rapidly based on short-term events (data).In other words, the market should now focus more on “the balance of power within the Fed” than on “one-off interest rate adjustments.”This is an investment point that other news outlets often do not emphasize.

3) The Essence of the OpenAI–Nvidia–Oracle Stargate Deal

OpenAI has decided to build a massive data center in Texas (project name: Stargate).Oracle is joining as an infrastructure partner, and Nvidia is participating as an AI chip supplier and equity investor.This deal is not just about funding but a competition for “securing computing power territory.”Key Points (Overlooked by the Media):

Computing power is the core fuel for AI competition, and those who own and control it gain a strategic advantage.
Conversely, if a supplier (Nvidia) directly invests in a customer (OpenAI), the revenue structure and trading relationship can change.
Realignments with existing partners like Microsoft are inevitable, and power dynamics within the industry ecosystem are being reshaped.

4) Power and Infrastructure Bottlenecks — The Invisible Limits to AI Expansion

Large AI operators like OpenAI require enormous amounts of electricity.Even reported figures suggest that the power demand from new data centers could account for a significant portion of the US’s new power generation capacity.The Most Important Fact (Point Neglected by Other News):

Power infrastructure cannot be expanded quickly (design and permitting for power plants, transmission lines, and substations take time).
Nuclear, gas, solar, and wind power each have distinct limitations (construction periods, component shortages, political regulations).Consequently, a realistic bottleneck of “no power despite computing demand” is likely to constrain the pace of industry growth.This issue is as closely tied to politics and energy policy as it is to technological (model) competition.

5) Semiconductors and Memory: Micron’s Earnings and Their Implications

Micron showed strong performance in its quarterly earnings and guidance.The key reason is the explosive demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) for AI.Investment Signal (What to Watch Closely):

The surge in AI server demand is driving a significant increase in HBM and specialized memory demand, benefiting related companies.
Conversely, a “resource reallocation” is observed, with some reduction in traditional server and general data center investments.
Therefore, within the semiconductor value chain, “AI peripheries (memory, power management, cooling)” are likely to be the key beneficiaries.

6) Key News and Investment Points by Company

Micron: A representative company directly benefiting from HBM.

Strong momentum, but potential slowdown in some existing businesses due to “AI focus.”Vertiv: A hidden beneficiary candidate for data center cooling and power management.
As AI data center expansion accelerates, demand for power and cooling solutions will surge concurrently.Johnson & Johnson: Possesses defensive qualities and growth potential through its pharmaceutical and oncology pipelines.
Even when the market is concerned about the pharmaceutical sector, companies with “genuine new drug lineups” become relative safe havens.Eli Lilly: An example of reshoring benefits from investment in large-scale production facilities for oral obesity treatments.
This is an example of increased domestic production in the US due to trade and tax pressures from the Trump administration.IonQ: A leading stock in the surge of quantum computing.
Technological advancements (such as artificial diamond films) are building investor confidence.Tether (USDT): Tether’s high valuation (estimated investment attraction) signals the institutionalization of stablecoins and the cryptocurrency market.
Financial system integration risks and regulatory responses are key risks.

7) Long-Term Message from Wall Street’s Perspective (e.g., Vanguard) — “Higher Interest Rates (New Normal)”

Some on Wall Street advocate for “normalization in an era of higher interest rates.”Key Rationale: Inflation remains above the target of 2%, and the labor market is robust.Investor Implications:

Investors need a strategy to adapt to “structural interest rate levels” rather than focusing on short-term rate cuts.
Attention should be paid to bonds, dividends, and quality growth stocks (companies with strong cash flows).

8) Political Risks — Budget, Shutdowns, and Foreign Policy (China) Variables

There is a possibility of a government shutdown if the US Congress fails to reach an agreement.A shutdown has a negative impact on short-term economic and sentiment indicators.Foreign policy variables related to China also show signs of uncertainty resolution.

The reopening of US-China dialogue channels is a factor for long-term risk mitigation.

9) Investment Practical Checklist (By Priority)

Short-Term (Next Quarter)

Prepare for increased volatility until the PCE announcement.
Monitor Powell’s remarks and statements from Fed officials.Mid-Term (6-12 Months)
Examine the HBM/memory supply chain and key players like Micron.
Pay attention to data center power contracts, Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), and cooling solution providers.Long-Term (Structural)
Realign portfolios for a “higher interest rate” environment (cash flow, defensive, infrastructure).
Scenario planning to prepare for regulatory risks in stablecoins and crypto assets.

10) “The Most Important Thing” That Other Media Outlets Don’t Cover

The real constraint on AI competition is “power and data center infrastructure, not semiconductors.”The pace of technological (model, chip) innovation is outstripping the pace of infrastructure (power, transmission, cooling, sites, permits), creating a significant bottleneck.This point should be a top priority in both investment strategy and policy response.In other words, investing in the AI ecosystem requires looking at the entire chain: “computing → power → cooling → network.”

< Summary >Powell’s “overvalued stocks” warning and internal Fed concerns about employment are clashing, increasing policy uncertainty.The Stargate deal between OpenAI and Nvidia is a battle for computing power, with power and infrastructure bottlenecks as the key risks.Micron’s earnings show strong demand for memory, particularly HBM, and data center infrastructure-related stocks (cooling, power management) are hidden beneficiaries.Tether’s overvaluation attempt signifies the institutionalization and financial market linkage of stablecoins.Investors should monitor short-term data (e.g., PCE) and Fed remarks, while also transitioning to portfolios that reflect structural “higher interest rates” and infrastructure bottlenecks.

[Related Articles…]

Interpretation of Powell’s Remarks and Interest Rate Outlook — Summary of the Impact of Fed Risks on the Market

OpenAI-Nvidia Stargate and Power Infrastructure Issues — Practical Impact of Data Center Power Bottlenecks

*Source: [ Jun’s economy lab ]

– [ 어젯밤 미국은?] 브로드컴 실적 발표! 공개! / 연준 파월이 한 말말말 / 오픈ai-엔비디아 이대로 괜찮아?

● Dallas Fed’s 2 Dilemma – Micron Signals AI Inflation – Fed, Rates, Prices, Stocks, Strategy

Dallas Fed Report’s “2% Return Impossibility” and Micron’s Earnings Signal Investment Opportunities — Practical Strategies from the Fed, Interest Rates, Prices, Inflation, and Stock Perspectives

This covers the following key points:The core conclusions of the Dallas Fed report and the reasons why a 2% return is realistically difficult.The impact of Micron’s earnings and AI/memory supply-demand dynamics on prices (especially core goods inflation).A chronological outlook of the Fed’s monetary policy path (interest rate scenarios) and market (stocks/bonds) reactions.Crucial points less covered by other news – the structural stickiness of non-housing (services) inflation, the paradoxical effect of AI driving up some goods inflation, and supply/labor structural factors difficult to solve with policy.Practical strategies and checklists for investors (short-term, mid-term, portfolio) and monitoring indicators.

1) Immediate Market Reactions — Powell’s Remarks & Micron’s Earnings (Situation on the Day)

The market initially reacted with a downturn following Powell’s remarks, feeling short-term pressure.Despite the Fed Chair’s statement that he doesn’t directly manage stock levels, the market interpreted this as a signal of caution regarding previous overvalued zones.On the same day, Micron significantly exceeded market expectations across revenue, EPS, and guidance.Specifically, the acceleration of HBM and AI demand confirmed tight memory spot prices and supply-demand conditions, creating strong upward pressure on semiconductor (memory) related stocks.In essence, it was a day where monetary policy uncertainty (interest rates) and industrial performance (especially the AI semiconductor boom) simultaneously amplified market volatility.

2) Dallas Fed Report Summary (Key Numbers and Structure)

The Dallas Fed broke down core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) by its components.It noted potential for improvement in housing services (rent/housing-related) as they are likely to decline with a lag.Core goods (goods inflation) were assumed to normalize within a few years, with some temporary factors like tariffs.The problem lies in non-housing services (leisure, healthcare, education, professional services, etc.) remaining stubbornly high.According to the Dallas Fed’s analysis, due to the weight and rising rate of this category, it’s difficult to bring core PCE down to 2.0% even if housing and goods normalize.Ultimately, it emphasized that the likelihood of historical precedents (like the large disinflation in goods seen from 2002-2007) is low.

3) Crucial Points Other News Often Misses — My Emphasized Perspective

The “stickiness” of non-housing services inflation isn’t just due to high demand.Services prices are labor-intensive and are a complex result of wage/supply constraints across regions and sectors, making them difficult to lower solely through monetary policy.There are also measurement issues. Housing measurements in PCE and CPI (e.g., owner-equivalent rent) have a strong lag, delaying policy signals.Another paradox: AI demand is fueling “some goods inflation.”As seen in Micron’s earnings, the increased demand for HBM and high-performance memory can continuously push up prices of specific electronic materials and semiconductors.The premise that goods inflation will significantly decrease, as assumed by the Dallas Fed, might weaken in an era of AI transformation.In other words, scenarios that rely on goods disinflation to confidently achieve a return to 2% are overly optimistic.

4) Scenario and Probabilistic Outlook by Time Horizon (Short-Term, Mid-Term, Long-Term)

Short-Term (3-12 months): The Fed is likely to continue favoring monetary policy normalization (or maintaining a “higher for longer” stance).Due to the stickiness of services inflation, further easing (rate cuts) may be delayed.Mid-Term (1-3 years): As housing costs and goods factors normalize, there could be a mild downward pressure, but without a decline in non-housing services, returning to 2% will be difficult.Long-Term (3+ years): Complete return to 2% remains uncertain until structural factors (labor market restructuring, productivity gains, global supply chain shifts) are resolved.Even with an optimistic assumption of the Dallas Fed’s model, a 2% target is a significantly challenging objective.

5) Impact on Financial Markets (Interest Rates, Bonds, Stocks) and Investment Logic

Interest Rates/Bonds:The stickiness of services inflation increases the likelihood of higher long-term interest rates through the impact of real interest rates (adjusted for inflation).Therefore, long-duration bonds (old duration) are vulnerable to rising interest rate risk.Recommendation: Consider short-to-mid-term bonds, inflation-linked bonds (TIPS), and variable-rate instruments.

Stocks:The AI and semiconductor (especially memory) sectors are positive due to supply-demand imbalances.However, if the trend of rising interest rates continues overall, highly valued (growth) stocks may face downward pressure.Recommendation: AI infrastructure/semiconductors (memory), value/dividend stocks, and inflation-sensitive assets (some commodities/energy).

Alternative Investments:Defensive positioning can be found in real assets (income-generating real estate/inflation-linked returns), commodities, and infrastructure investments.

6) Practical Portfolio & Risk Management Checklist

Maintain Cash Holdings: Secure dry powder for re-entry during increased volatility.Duration Management: Reduce exposure to long-term bonds, increase short-term bonds/TIPS.Sector Allocation: Overweight AI/semiconductors (especially memory), rebalance away from high-growth/unprofitable startups.Company Selection Criteria: Pricing power (margin protection), financial soundness (cash flow), and ability to capitalize on high inflation (e.g., memory for AI servers).Hedging: Inflation hedges (commodities/TIPS), currency/interest rate options to defend positions.

7) Practical Monitoring Indicators (Data/Signals) — What to Watch

Core PCE and CPI (especially non-housing services components) – monthly trends.Rent/housing costs (Owner-equivalent rent), new housing supply/building permits.Services sector employment and wages (especially average wages in leisure, healthcare, education).PPI Services and the corporate pass-through index – the speed at which companies transfer costs to consumers.Memory, HBM, DRAM spot prices and OEM inventory levels – to gauge the impact of earnings announcements like Micron’s.News related to tariffs, trade policy, and supply chain restructuring.

8) Investment Ideas (Specific) — Ready-to-Use Checklist

Short-Term Trading:Event-driven trades leveraging the momentum from earnings surprises of Micron and related memory suppliers.Position building to hedge against price shocks with TIPS/short-term government bonds.

Mid-Term Investing:Proactive exposure to suppliers and equipment manufacturers in the AI infrastructure (servers, GPUs, HBM supply chain).Defend portfolio with value stocks strong in dividends and cash flow.

Long-Term Investing:Invest in inflation-hedging assets (infrastructure, energy, some commodities) and companies that enhance productivity (companies offsetting real wage increases through AI adoption).

9) The Most Important Sentence (Key Point Not Widely Discussed)

The combination of structural stickiness in non-housing (services) inflation and the simultaneous occurrence of AI-driven inflation in specific goods (memory) makes the Fed’s 2% target difficult to achieve through monetary policy alone, necessitating a paradigm shift in interest rate and asset allocation strategies.

10) Risk Scenarios and Response Plans

Upside Risk (Scenario of Further Price Increases): Potential coexistence of falling real interest rates and rising nominal rates. Response: Increase allocation to TIPS, commodities, AI, and semiconductors.Downside Risk (Sharp Economic Downturn): Downside for growth/highly leveraged stocks, preference for safe assets. Response: Cash, short-term bonds, defensive sectors.Stagnation Risk (Stagflation): Simultaneous occurrence of low growth and high inflation. Response: Investment focused on real assets, dividends, and companies with pricing power.

The Dallas Fed report concludes that returning core PCE to 2% is realistically difficult due to the stickiness of non-housing services inflation.Micron’s earnings suggest the potential for continued memory price increases and goods inflation driven by AI demand.Consequently, the Fed’s interest rate path is likely to remain higher for longer, requiring investors to rebalance portfolios towards reduced duration, TIPS, AI, semiconductors, and value stocks.Prioritize monitoring core PCE components (especially services), wages/employment, and memory spot prices.

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– [홍장원의 불앤베어] 아무리 낙관적으로 계산해도 2% 물가 계산이 안나온다는데