● ADP Shock, US Shutdown, Gold 3900, AI Power Boom

Focus for the Week of October 1st: ADP Shock, US Shutdown After 7 Years, Gold Surpassing $3,900, and the Real Beneficiaries of the Second AI Rally After NVIDIA

I’m confident that this article contains exactly 5 points.

1) The ADP employment shock’s immediate impact on FedWatch, short-term interest rate curves, and the US stock market.

2) The ‘data gap’ created by the federal government shutdown after 7 years and the changes in the Fed’s interest rate decision function.

3) The true supply-demand structure behind the gold price surpassing $3,900 and its mechanism linked to the dollar’s weakness and real interest rates.

4) Why sectors such as power, cooling, and resale channels become the second leading stocks in the AI value chain after NVIDIA’s dominance.

5) A practical timeline positioning checklist amid the seasonality of Q4.

Market Snapshot and Material for October 1st

– Headlines.

The three major indices opened slightly lower.

Some profit-taking occurred in large tech stocks that had set record highs the day before, while the risk appetite was suppressed by the onset of the shutdown.

– Triggers for the Day.

1) September’s ADP private employment figures came in significantly below market expectations.

2) Shutdown of the federal government took effect at 12:01 AM.

3) The ISM Manufacturing PMI was scheduled to be checked in terms of inflation pressure during the trading session.

– Key Message.

Short-term supply and demand tilted towards a preference for safe assets, with gold, long-term bonds, and advanced currencies showing strength, while growth stocks displayed mixed signals between expectations for interest rate cuts and earnings checks.

SEO Keywords: US Stock Market, Inflation, Interest Rate Cuts, Economic Recession, Dollar Weakness.

Employment: What the ADP Shock Tells Us

– Summary of Facts.

September’s ADP private employment was reported to fall significantly short of consensus.

A notable decrease was observed mainly in the service sector, while some declines were also seen in manufacturing and leisure/accommodation sectors.

– Why It Matters.

This week’s official employment report may be delayed due to the shutdown, increasing the importance of the ADP as an alternative indicator.

The Fed may find it difficult to maintain the premise of being “data-dependent,” and in the short term, this could stimulate expectations for interest rate cuts.

– Points Others Might Miss.

ADP tends to capture “hiring willingness inflection” before overall employment levels.

When combined with advertising, recruiting, and back-office payment data, signals for hiring freezes and postponements emerge in advance.

This figure should be read alongside the slowdown in total wage growth and its ripple effects on personal consumption and credit spreads.

Shutdown: The Reoccurrence After 7 Years and Market Mechanics

– Timeline and Scope of Impact.

The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the possibility of delays in the release of key statistics.

A blind spot will emerge for ‘data the Fed monitors’ like weekly new claims, manufacturing orders, and employment reports.

– Macro Shock Pathway.

1) Short-term GDP loss could accumulate to about 0.1-0.2% points per week.

2) Unpaid leave for federal employees heightens volatility in headline unemployment rates and could dampen consumption.

3) Changes in T-bill issuance/payment schedules may result in fund reallocations in the money market/RRP balances, leading to fluctuations in short-term interest rates.

– Differentiating Factors in This Cycle.

The longer the data gap persists, the greater the likelihood that the Fed will lean toward a “risk management” approach.

This means that even without strong recession signals, the uncertainty itself may justify slight preemptive interest rate cuts.

– Practical Checks.

1) T-bill spreads for 1-3 month maturities and OIS spreads.

2) Usage of Fed discount window and alternative measures such as BTFP.

3) Check if commercial paper spreads are widening.

Gold Surpassing $3,900: The Reality Behind This Rally

– Going Beyond Surface Explanations.

The intensity of the rally cannot be explained solely by dollar weakness.

This cycle’s core features are the “central bank’s physical purchases + OTC demand from Asia/Middle East + ETF reflows.”

– Structural Drivers.

1) Expectations for peak-out in real interest rates.

2) Heightened risk premiums based on geopolitical/election cycles.

3) The shutdown reduces data visibility, systematically increasing ‘hedge demand.’

– Details.

If the COMEX spreads and physical premiums rise simultaneously, short-term corrections may still occur, but the probability of hitting new highs is high.

In this cycle, separating operations between beta (miners) and defensive (physical gold) is key.

Bitcoin and Safe Asset Rotation

– Background for Simultaneous Strength.

1) Expanded policy uncertainty has led to a preference for ‘verified scarce assets.’

2) Expectations for interest rate cuts lower the discount rates of long-term cash flow assets, which is also favorable for digital assets.

– Short-term Variables.

The focus should be on the continued recovery of on-chain liquidity and the sustained inflow to spot ETFs.

Long-lasting shutdowns may shift the volatility regime upward, making position size management essential.

The Fed and Interest Rate Path: ‘Policy Under Data Gap’

– Current Baseline.

The market is significantly reflecting the possibility of a 25bp rate cut at the end of October, along with pricing in options for an additional cut in December.

– Changes in Policy Function.

With no data, the Fed is likely to shift to ‘conditional forward guidance.’

This means that cuts will likely proceed under the conditions of 1) verifying employment slowdowns, 2) no re-acceleration of prices, and 3) maintaining good indicators of financial stability.

– Risk Management.

If the shutdown is unexpectedly lifted and indicators rebound, expectations for the December cut may be partially reversed.

A staggered entry into short-duration bonds is reasonable.

Q4 Seasonality and Trading Plan

– Compromise between History and Reality.

While the average yield advantage of Q4 is true, increased policy and data noise makes the pattern of a ‘lagging rally’ likely.

– Outline of Sector Rotation.

1) Overweight high-quality growth (steady cash flow + benefits from AI).

2) Hedging volatility with defensive dividends (utilities/healthcare).

3) Hedge left-tail risks with gold, miners, and long-term bonds.

– Practical Rules.

During periods of data gaps, prices become the ‘news.’

Technical criteria like breakouts/retests and risk budget management should replace back data.

AI Trends: Power, Infrastructure, and Channels Lead After NVIDIA’s Dominance

– Value Chain Landscape.

Hardware Layer: GPUs (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel) and packaging/HBM (Micron, SK Hynix), foundry (TSMC).

Infrastructure Layer: Cloud/rescale (Oracle, CoreWeave, AWS, Azure, GCP), networking/interconnect (Broadcom, Marvell, Arista).

Power & Cooling Layer: Power supply, UPS, immersion cooling (Vertiv, etc.), distributed energy/fuel cells (specific companies), SMR/upgrades to power delivery.

Platform & App Layer: Models/platforms (OpenAI, Anthropic, Copilot, Gemini) and enterprise apps (Palantir, etc.).

– Why Power is the Center of the Second Rally Now.

Even if GPU supply improves, data center expansions cannot proceed without resolving power and cooling constraints.

Regulation, permitting, and grid enhancements could take 18–24 months, whereas solutions for distributed energy have a lead time of 60–120 days, playing a ‘bridging role.’

– The Core Points Others Don’t Mention.

1) Meeting big tech demand through ‘GPU resale channels’ (CoreWeave, Oracle, etc.) actually reduces the volatility of NVIDIA’s results.

Intermediate channels absorb inventory and allocation, cushioning demand shocks.

2) The electricity cost per data center is directly tied to AI workload profitability.

In regions with high electricity costs, the transition to model lightweighting and low-precision inference accelerates, improving the profitability of software optimization companies.

3) When interconnect bandwidth is a bottleneck, the investment elasticity for switches/optics is greater than for additional GPUs.

– Investment Interpretation.

NVIDIA remains a core player but may have greater profit leverage in power, network, and packaging chains in Q4.

When analyzing earnings previews, make sure to check for phrases related to ‘power contracts, lead time, and rack unit expansion plans’ first.

Checklist for Korean Investors

– Exchange Rates and Beta.

During periods of dollar weakness, the KOSPI’s beta increases, but the volatility rises due to shutdown noise.

Consider the elasticity of export-sensitive sectors for every 1 won change in USD/KRW.

– Viewing Domestic Secondary Benefits.

HBM/CoWoS packaging, power and substation facilities, copper/cables, and real estate/energy REITs for data centers are structurally advantageous.

– Risk Management.

Increased volatility in the US stock indices could lead to expanded valuation discounts for growth stocks on the KOSDAQ, requiring selective focus on areas with re-rating potential compared to fundamentals.

Q4 Timeline Roadmap

– October 1: ADP announcement, start of shutdown.

– Early to Mid-October: Possibilities of delays in some economic indicators, with a focus on comments about data centers and power in corporate guidance.

– Around October 29: FOMC, possibility of conditional interest rate cut guidance.

– November: Earnings results from mega caps, potential disclosures of AI capex tracks for 2026.

– Around December 10: FOMC, reset annual dot plot and update 2026 inflation trajectory.

– Strategy Summary: Buy volatility before events, follow trends after results.

Three Conclusion Points for Today

1) The ADP shock + data gap pushes the Fed towards a ‘risk management cut.’

However, be prepared for a rebound risk in indicators after any lifting, hence duration should be staggered.

2) The gold rally is driven by central bank/OTC demand in a structural market.

Don’t mechanically reduce the hedge ratio.

3) The second AI rally is driven by power, infrastructure, and channels.

Be sure to check for keywords related to power contracts and lead times in earnings calls.

< Summary >

The weakness in ADP and the shutdown create a larger data gap, raising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and the preference for safe assets pushed gold past $3,900.

During an extended shutdown, both short-term interest rates, T-bill spreads, and consumption should be monitored simultaneously.

The AI rally after NVIDIA is driven by power, cooling, networking, and resale channels, with power lead times and interconnects determining performance ceilings.

The fourth quarter will be event-driven.

Duration should be staggered, hold gold, and focus on AI infrastructure.

[Related Articles…]

The Real Impact of the Fed’s Data Gap on Interest Rate Decisions

After NVIDIA: The Power and Cooling Driving the Second AI Rally

*Source: [ Maeil Business Newspaper ]

– 9월 ADP 민간 고용 예상치 큰폭 하회ㅣ美 7년만에 연방정부 셧다운ㅣ금값 3900불마저 돌파 사상 최고치ㅣ홍키자의 매일뉴욕

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