● Tesla Q3 Make-or-Break, 440k Inline, 460k Surprise

Tesla Q3 Announcement Imminent: 440,000 ‘Meets Expectations’ vs 460,000 ‘Surprise’, Checklist that Determines Stock Price Inflection Point

This article outlines the event calendar that will actually sway stock prices on the announcement day and the following week, the stock price response bands for scenarios of 440,000, 450,000, and 460,000 units, the ‘delivery mechanics’ considering logistics, shipping, and production slots, data points by region (China, Europe, and the US), microstructure such as options and dealer hedge flows, and psychological variables including the introduction of the Cybertruck police car, the European shareholder rights controversy, and xAI ‘Grokipedia.’
It specifically organizes why the stock price response varies even for the same 450,000 units, and summarizes eight key numbers to check within 48 hours post-announcement.
This article naturally integrates keywords related to the global economy, the US stock market, interest rates, inflation, and the electric vehicle market, maintaining both searchability and practical applicability.

T-Timeline Roadmap: What Actually Moves Before and After the Disclosure

T-1 to 0 Days: Tesla discloses production and delivery (Production & Deliveries) reports.
T+0 to T+1 Days: The options expiration period (Gamma) shifts in pre-market, increasing volatility at the start of trading.
T+1 to T+3 Days: Broker research (quick take) and channel checks are reflected, and individual houses update target prices and model mix.
T+5 to T+10 Days: Price reform, incentive changes, and regional delivery lead times are readjusted.
The key point is that the price experiences a second repricing within the T+1 to T+3 days based not on the numbers themselves but on the ‘common interpretation of the numbers.’

Q3 Delivery Scenario Matrix: Implications of 440,000, 450,000, and 460,000+ Units for Stock Prices

The consensus midpoint is roughly around 445,000 units.
The core issue is not how much it exceeds the consensus, but the ‘overall interpretation’ taking into account delivery versus production, regional mix, and inventory changes.

• 440,000 to 445,000 Units: Likely interpreted as meeting expectations.
  If production exceeds deliveries, there may be concerns of inventory accumulation, leading to neutral to slight correction in the short-term stock price.
• 450,000 ± 5,000 Units: A light beat will trigger event-driven demand.
  If the share of the US and China is high and shipping bottlenecks are fewer, momentum can be sustained.
• 460,000 to 465,000 Units+: This could be classified as a surprise.
  However, if there were significant price discounts or incentives, margin concerns could follow, so caution is warranted for a pattern of initial surge then half-back during the session.

Even for the same figure of 450,000, if there is an increase in China’s share along with signals of logistics normalization in Europe, it can be interpreted as “sustainable demand.” Conversely, if there was only an increase in deliveries without a rise in US incentives and no reduction in inventory, it would be viewed as “pulled demand,” leading to divergent stock reactions.

The Real Mechanics Behind the Numbers: Logistics, Shipping, Production Slots, Prices, and Taxation

Logistics and Shipping: The typical lead time from Shanghai to Europe is around 30-35 days, meaning that deliveries in the latter half of the quarter are heavily influenced by shipping timing.
Production Slots: If the line calendar for Gigafactory Texas and Shanghai is maintained, an increase in the production of derived trims (e.g., Y third row) may not directly translate into an increase in deliveries.
Prices and Incentives: Changes in local financial conditions (APR) and lease subsidies significantly impact the elasticity of deliveries.
Taxation: Changes in qualification requirements for the US IRA electric vehicle tax credit frequently alter applications by model and trim, increasing quarterly swings in demand.
The point is that while “total cost of ownership (TCO)” associated with price and taxation can pull demand forward, it may create a vacuum in the following quarter.

Regional Grounding Points: China, Europe, and the US

China: Weekly insurance registrations serve as a leading indicator of deliveries, and the launch of new/derived trims typically sees high elasticity in the initial 4-6 weeks.
Europe: The alleviation of port congestion at the end of the quarter and the capacity for last-mile transport determine the actual upper limit of deliveries.
US: Changes in inventory days of supply (DOS) and lead times distinguish “actual demand vs promotional effects.”
If two or more of these regions improve simultaneously, the quality of the 450,000 units is deemed high.

Market Microstructure: Options, Dealer Hedge, Shorts, and Macro Variables

Options Positioning: A top-heavy call structure during the announcement week can boost dealer delta hedging’s upward momentum, but if gamma releases just after the event, volatility may drop sharply, leading to profit taking.
Short Position: If short covering occurs, it can easily trigger a ‘gap up + upper chasing’ effect.
Macros (Global Economy, Interest Rates, Inflation): Even with the same earnings, if the US stock market is in a rising interest rate environment, multiples will face constraints on expansion.
A strong dollar may act as a headwind for offshore sales’ earnings conversion.

Risks and Headwinds: Pulled Demand in Q4, Price Wars, Raw Materials, Trade Issues

Q4 Vacuums: The pulled demand from Q3 promotions and tax changes may result in a slowdown in Q4.
Price Wars: If price cuts originating from China spread to Europe, it could burden ASP and margins.
Raw Materials: A rebound in lithium and nickel prices could have a lagging cost impact on margins.
Trade: EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and circumvention regulations could distort the regional mix.

Non-Financial Issues Affecting Sentiment: ‘Small but Mighty’

The introduction of the Cybertruck police car (Las Vegas): This symbolic contract opens up the fleet and government procurement total addressable market (TAM).
Considering the lengthy procurement cycle, it is more appropriate to interpret this as a brand and trust premium rather than immediate sales.
European Shareholder Rights Controversy (ING Germany Case): Sensitivity is high regarding the November shareholder meeting vote (compensation, governance), and if the overseas broker’s proxy delivery policy comes into question, governance risk premiums may temporarily expand.
xAI ‘Grokipedia’: The alternative discourse in the wiki ecosystem will have limited short-term earnings impact, but can support premiums regarding Tesla’s FSD research narrative in terms of AI talent pool and data strategy.
Netflix Cancellations Movement: Cultural war issues may trigger cross boycotts and advertising sentiment, creating noise in the overall big tech multiples.
Model Y third row (China): Signals for family demand TAM expansion.
At the same time, it should be monitored whether it cannibalizes existing Y, and if the delivery lead time remains between 6-8 weeks, it can be interpreted as stable demand.

Eight Numbers to Check Within 48 Hours Post-Announcement

• Total delivery volume vs consensus gap (greater than/less than bp range).
• Difference compared to production volume (inventory increase/decrease).
• Model 3/Y combined share and momentum of S/X and Cybertruck figures.
• Directional clues on regional mix (China, Europe, US).
• Hints for estimating average selling price (ASP): comments on changes in incentives and lease conditions.
• Updates on delivery lead times (official site, local channel checks).
• Signals regarding Q4 pricing policy: any announcements on immediate reductions/maintaining levels.
• Speed of implied volatility (IV) normalization in the options market and changes in gamma positions.

One-Line Conclusion and Execution Points

Mid-440,000 is ‘meeting expectations,’ around 450,000 is ‘judged by quality,’ and mid-460,000 is ‘surprise + margin check’ that are critical.
Don’t just look at the numbers; simultaneously check the 4 types of production-delivery gaps, regional mixes, lead times, and pricing policies to reduce interpretational errors.
Keep in mind that the macro environment (interest rates, inflation, dollar) and options microstructure can create entirely different stock price paths with the same numbers.

Appendix: Wall Street Consensus Snapshot and Interpretation Framework

Most houses set the benchmark at around mid-440,000 units, with an optimistic scenario setting the mid-460,000 unit target.
What’s crucial is ‘what assumptions led to that figure.’
If the trio of increased Chinese elasticity, normalized European logistics, and reduced US lead times all occur simultaneously, even the same figure of 450,000 will see multiples expand.
Conversely, if the reliance on promotions and tax incentives is high, these margin concerns will follow throughout the earnings season even with a numerical beat.

Outlook Summary: Looking Ahead to Q4 and 2025

In Q4, the fatigue of pulled demand alongside trade variables, raw material prices, and competitors’ pricing will be crucial.
The 2025 narrative hinges on whether the software value of FSD, energy business, and fleet expansion (police, government, corporate) can defend the multiples.
As the volatility of the US stock market increases during a global economic slowdown phase, the triangular formation of actual deliveries, cash flows, and AI asset stories serves as a bulwark.

Broad Checklist: What to Really Look for This Quarter

• Alongside delivery volume numbers, check for simultaneous improvements in lead times and inventory.
• Monitor trends in the share of Y’s third row in China and any existence of demand cannibalization across the Y lineup.
• Signs of regional expansion for the Cybertruck fleet pilot (from the US to overseas).
• Status of European banking proxy voting support (before the November general meeting).
• Frequency and intensity of pricing and incentive announcements, and direction of ASP adjustment estimates.
• Focus on call concentration and gamma position shifts in the options market (short-term volatility management).

Data Interpretation Tips: Avoiding Different Conclusions from the Same Data

Weekly registration and insurance data should show the “direction,” but remove the effects of specific holidays or promotions in a given week by assessing 3-week moving averages.
Port and shipping information should check for bottlenecks separately at the “loading, unloading, and last mile” stages.
Prices, interest rates, and taxation should be compared on a TCO basis to distinguish between surface price cuts and changes in actual purchase costs.

Final Comment

This event is not merely a numbers game; it is a competition to prove “sustainability.”
Exceeding 440,000 is just the beginning; surpassing 460,000 while improving margins, inventory, and lead times is essential for a true rally.
If these improvements are not visible, even with the numbers, the stock price may still take a breather.

< Summary >

The consensus is about mid-440,000 units, while mid-460,000 units is the surprise range.
Stock price interpretation should combine total deliveries, production-delivery gaps, regional mixes, lead times, and price/taxation.
Options positions, interest rates, and dollar movements can create entirely different stock price paths even with the same numbers.
The Cybertruck fleet, European shareholder rights issues, and xAI discourse will influence psychological premiums.
Using the eight-point checklist within 48 hours post-announcement to evaluate ‘quality’ will help mitigate risks.

[Related Articles…]

Tesla Q3 Delivery Volume Outlook and Stock Variables Summary
Impact and Fleet Market Analysis of the Cybertruck Police Car Adoption

*Source: [ 오늘의 테슬라 뉴스 ]

– 테슬라 Q3 발표 임박! 44만대 돌파 가능성 vs 46만대 서프라이즈? 주가 향방 결정될까?

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● Tesla Rockets on Delivery Eve – Whisper Surges, Options Squeeze, FSD v14 Hype

Why Did Tesla Only Surge D-1: Whisper Number Adjustment, Option Flow, The Paradox of Subsidy ‘Removal Effect’, FSD v14 and AI Revenue Model, and the Leak of Low-Cost Model Y Code Summarized

This article contains key variables surrounding the Q3 delivery volume to be released tomorrow, the reasons behind the market’s delayed reflection of the whisper number adjustments, the supply and demand factors that other channels are not covering well, the mechanism by which the ‘removal’ of subsidies accelerates demand, the points on the cost structure of the low-cost Model Y discovered in the source code, and the long-term revenue model driven by AI from FSD v14.

We systematically organized the short-term stock triggers and the true variables of 5-10 year valuations in chronological order, and reinterpreted them to allow immediate judgment while linking them with global economic, interest rate, and inflation variables.

Market Setting: Why Tesla Outperformed the Market After the Government Shutdown Happenings

As concerns over a U.S. government shutdown eased, the index remained limited in its rebound.

However, Tesla recorded a notable excess return with a strong 3% increase.

The superficial reason is the ‘final reflection’ of the Q3 delivery numbers announcement D-1, but supply-demand wise, it is likely that option delta-hedging and short covering worked simultaneously.

Due to the expiration structure, the increase in call option purchases → hedging through buying the underlying stock by market makers → strong irrational trades just before the close is a pattern that frequently occurs with Tesla.

This flow is the key answer to ‘why only Tesla’.

Delivery Whisper Number: Adjusted Up from 465,000 to 480,000 ‘Neutral’

The consensus was 440,000, but the market’s unofficial expectation (whisper) had already risen to 465,000.

Based on today’s flow, it is persuasive to interpret that the neutral line has risen further to near 480,000.

In other words, the mid 480,000s is neutral, and for significant bullish momentum to continue, it has become more likely that it must exceed this level considerably.

Regional Performance Signals (Updated Time Axis): China → Europe → USA for Upward Pressure

Observations suggest that insurance registrations and delivery estimates in China have increased conservatively by more than 35,000 compared to the previous quarter.

This appears to be the combined result of accelerated delivery volume late in the quarter and an improved export/domestic mix.

The aggregation of weekly reporting countries in Europe has a greater opportunity for more than a 5,000 unit increase compared to the previous quarter as the last week is added.

The phenomenon in Norway, where Tesla’s share in the last month of the quarter soars to the level of ‘one out of three’ in total vehicles, is a typical signal of a logistical wave strategy.

In the U.S., an observed demand pull effect ahead of the ‘removal’ of subsidies or changes to conditions is noted.

The delivery volume of Ford EVs has increased by 30% year-on-year, evidencing the overall EV demand rally at the end of the quarter with competitor data.

Estimates have been presented that other markets, such as South Korea, could potentially see an increase of 6,000 to 8,000 units compared to the previous quarter.

When combining all these pieces, the market’s latest interpretation is that approaching 480,000 is not an unrealistic number.

The Paradox of ‘Deleted Subsidies’ Actually Boosting Delivery Volumes

When subsidy reductions/removals are announced in some regions, consumers rush to contract and receive deliveries before the benefits expire.

This ‘pull-forward’ mechanism, whereby policy changes bring demand forward, creates spikes in delivery volumes at the end of the quarter or month.

This point creates a strong trend distortion for short-term performance and stock prices but could return as a backlash in the next quarter due to raised baselines.

Therefore, while making a positive bet on D-1, risk management considering ‘pull-forward’s counteraction’ is essential after D+1.

Implications of the ‘Low-Cost Model Y’ Captured in Source Code: Component Removal and Cost Structure

Observations drawn from the Tesla official site source code indicated that items related to the standard Model Y and a price label of around $40,000 were captured.

Signals such as the removal of the glass roof are interpreted as a design-driven ‘de-contenting’ approach aimed at cost reduction.

However, it cannot be definitively concluded whether the $40,000 point is the actual launch price or a dummy price.

If it is low-cost, then the mid-$30,000s would represent a strong psychological threshold, making it crucial to see where the actual purchase price settles in connection with subsidies and interest rate environments.

The expansion of electric vehicle adoption is determined by the feasibility of monthly payments based on ‘price × interest rates,’ and the impact could multiply when interest rates decrease.

Hardware Updates: Addition of Front Bumper Camera and HW4 Optimization

The addition of front bumper cameras has been observed in new models such as Model 3, Cybertruck, and Juniper.

This design aims to enhance short-range visibility and reduce FSD cognitive errors, interpreting the combination with HW4 as a strategy to improve the challenges of urban driving.

Changes in sensor placement are not mere options but are aligned with data quality improvement strategies tailored to the end-to-end learning structure post-FSD v14.

Leverage of Superchargers/Energy: Meaning of 18% Capacity Increase vs 29% Usage Increase

About 4,000 new Supercharger stalls were installed during the quarter, showing an 18% year-on-year growth; however, total charging volume increased by 29%.

This signifies heightened network utilization, implying that more revenue and margins are generated from the same assets.

Considering charging prices, external OEM openness, and the expansion of the payment ecosystem, the inherent cash flow quality from this area is more stable than from automotive sales.

Additionally, the cumulative increase in energy storage (Megapack) installations contributes to forming a recurring cash cow less sensitive to economic cycles and interest rate changes.

FSD v14 and AI Revenue Model: More Significant Variables than Short-Term Delivery Volumes

Short-term stock prices fluctuate due to delivery volumes, but what determines market capitalization on a 5-10 year scale is the speed of AI-based autonomous driving commercialization.

v14 is centered on enhancing end-to-end structure and stabilizing planning, improving consistency in complex situations such as avoidance and merging.

Investment points include ‘cost per mile’ and ‘subscription conversion rate.’

As inference costs decrease, subscribers can be acquired at lower prices while maintaining high margins, accelerating network effects through increased vehicle numbers and data loops.

While the timeline for robo-taxis is highly volatile due to regulatory and insurance hurdles, revenue from subscription-based FSD is already a possible intermediate stage for monetization.

Even if capital expenditures for AI learning/inference increase, long-term software margins can offset the auto hardware cycles.

Valuation and Macro: The Triple Variables of Global Economy, Interest Rates, and Inflation

Tesla multiples are highly sensitive to 10-year bond rates.

When interest rates peak, there is potential for re-rating growth stock multiples, and when inflation eases, the consumer’s monthly payment burden is relieved.

On the raw materials front, stable declining lithium prices favor margins, while strong oil prices highlight the economics of EV transitions (fuel cost differences).

Thus, even if global economic cycles slow down, favorable factors can work simultaneously, such as declining interest rates, falling costs, and fuel price differentials.

Numeric Interpretation Checklist (D-1 → D+7): Order of Reading the Data

The announcement is usually made around 8 AM CT (10 PM KST).

1) Production vs Delivery Gap: Gauges inventory changes and the intensity of logistic waves.

2) Regional Mix: Insights into ASP and margins are obtained by the proportions of China/Europe/U.S.

3) Segment: Weak performance of S/X limits total profit impact; volume of 3/Y is crucial.

4) Position Relative to Whispers: If 480,000 is neutral, anything above an excess of 10,000 can be interpreted as significant bets.

5) Option Positions: Be aware of swing possibilities due to delta-gamma resolutions right after the announcement.

6) Upcoming Events: The range of FSD v14 distributions, additional opening of Superchargers, and margin/energy guidance in Q3 performance conference are the next catalysts.

Risk Factors: Good Delivery Volumes Do Not Guarantee High Profit

While volume increases due to price reductions, declines in ASP and increased incentives can limit auto margins.

The pull-forward from subsidy policy changes can create a backup effect that draws demand into the next quarter.

Regulatory/legal issues constantly exist concerning FSD commercialization, and competitive pressures from launches of low-cost EVs, especially from China, are also intense.

Exchange rates and tariffs, as well as changes in Europe’s tariffs toward China, can widen profitability gaps by region.

Elon’s Advice and Investor Playbook: Execution and Time Over Ideas

Maintaining long-term investment principles is much harder than just knowing them; it’s about ‘enduring’ execution.

Short-term event volatility is unavoidable, but the long-term value drivers are FSD/AI and energy network expansion.

Strategically, I recommend: 1) Utilizing volatility around the delivery announcement, 2) Risk managing in the D+1 to D+7 interval during option resolutions, and 3) Segmenting approaches during multiple re-evaluation periods following FSD/energy updates.

Conclusion: Today’s Surge is a Result of ‘Final Reflection Readjustment’ + ‘Supply-Demand Special’ + ‘Long-Term AI Story Reminder’

Tesla’s strength results from 1) adjustments to whisper numbers, 2) the paradoxical demand pull of subsidy removal, 3) non-linear buying due to option supply and demand, and 4) the long-term framing of FSD v14/energy momentum.

Short-term numbers create volatility, while long-term stories build multiples.

If you keep the two separate, you won’t lose your way even amidst the excitement of D-1.

< Summary >

As of D-1 for Q3 delivery volumes, the market has upwardly adjusted the whisper to around 480,000, strongly boosting only Tesla.

Option delta hedging and the demand pull from subsidy removal are the hidden forces behind ‘why only Tesla’.

Simultaneous upward signals emerging from China, Europe, and the U.S. have strengthened the logic of the neutral line at 480,000.

The low-cost Y from source code, front bumper cameras, and increased utilization of superchargers are points of cost/margin/network leverage.

The factors governing long-term value are FSD v14 and AI subscription models, while the global economic, interest rate, and inflation environment amplifies re-rating potential for multiples.

[Related Articles…]

Tesla Delivery Volume Forecast and How FSD v14 Changes Long-Term Value

How Peak Interest Rates Affect Growth Stock Multiples and EV Demand

*Source: [ 허니잼의 테슬라와 일론 ]

– 왜 테슬라만 상승했나? 일론 , 테슬라 30억 몰빵 투자자에게 남긴 조언 / Q3 인도량 D-1!

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● 2026 Stablecoin War – Banks vs Crypto for Dollar Hegemony

“The Reality of the ‘Currency Hegemony War’: The 2026 Stablecoin Financial War, Who Will Profit and Who Will Disappear?”

This article compresses key insights about the 2026 bank consortium stablecoin scenario, the collapse of the issuer’s profit model with a transition to 0% interest rates and alternative strategies, the competitive landscape between Tether·Circle vs GSIB (Global Systemically Important Banks), indicators of capital movement from DeFi to institutional DeFi, the scenario of mandatory trade settlements, and the restructuring of corporate B2B payments. It specifically demonstrates what other content often overlooks: ‘demand-side expansion’, ‘timing of profit model transitions’, and the coexistence structure of ‘closed bank coins vs open stablecoins’. The global economic outlook and the 2026 economic forecast have been organized step-by-step to connect them to actual decision-making.

Preparation Period 2024-2025: Why Stablecoins Became the Auxiliary Engine of Dollar Hegemony

• Header: Supply Engine – Yield from US Treasury (T-bill) Positioning.

• Details:
  The core of stablecoin reserves is short-term US Treasuries and cash-like assets.
  In a rising interest rate environment, issuers created massive cash flow from ‘reserve interest’.
  This structure has become an informal channel that absorbs dollar funding demand while complementing US Treasury demand.

• Major Points to Convey:
  As demand for ‘petrodollars’ weakens due to decreased oil payments, stablecoins are replacing it with ‘treasury dollar demand’.
  In other words, the dollar deposits in the coin market are effectively becoming a new source of demand for short-term treasuries.
  This has recharged the fundamental strength of dollar hegemony within the framework of digital assets.

• Header: Demand Engine – Triangular Expansion of Transactions, DeFi, and Financial Institutions.

• Details:
  Stablecoins have effectively positioned themselves as reserve currencies on exchanges, with transaction volumes generally larger than those in the Bitcoin market.
  In DeFi, stablecoins have become the standard unit of payment and margin across collateral, swaps, and derivatives layers.
  Major asset management firms and banks are creating separate sections for ‘institutional DeFi’, attracting regulatory-friendly liquidity.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Demand expansion is no longer just a story about crypto natives.
  The spectrum now includes institutional, corporate, individual remittances, and trade settlements, which are key variables for the 2026 economic forecast.

The Curtain Rises on the 2026 Warring States: Bank Consortium vs Crypto Native

• Header: Strengths of the Bank Consortium (e.g., GSIB Alliance).

• Details:
  They already dominate global corporate B2B networks, credit provision, and payment networks.
  They can offer “favorable financial conditions when payment is made with our coin,” enabling bundling opportunities.
  Their capabilities in regulatory compliance, anti-money laundering, and sanctions response are exceptional, making them immediately applicable to large-scale transactions.

• Major Points to Convey:
  There is a high likelihood that bank-issued stablecoins will quickly gain market share in corporate payments.
  A top-down strategy will operate, spreading from high-value transactions downward.

• Header: Strengths of Crypto Natives (Tether, Circle, etc.).

• Details:
  Their core assets include a global long-tail user base, developer community, and open composability.
  They are agile in cross-chain movement, DeFi integration, and partnerships.
  They cater to remittance demands from emerging markets’ retail, freelancers, and cross-border payments in terms of price, speed, and accessibility.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Retail, DeFi, and cross-border payments spread from ‘the bottom up’, favoring the open model.
  The conclusion is coexistence.
  Closed (bank) and open (native) rails will likely create a dual market structure and specialize in the long term.

• Header: Which Strategy Will Prevail?

• Details:
  In corporate payments and trade, banks are favored, while in DeFi and retail, natives hold an advantage.
  The more favorable government and regulatory tone is towards bank types, the deeper the open types will penetrate into DeFi and offshore sectors.

• Major Points to Convey:
  The winner is not ‘one side’ but the ‘sum of segment-wise advantages’.
  From a global economic outlook perspective, this serves as a multi-layered safety net for dollar hegemony.

If Interest Rates Drop to 0%: Transformation of Issuer’s Profit Model

• Header: How Money Has Been Made So Far.

• Details:
  Interest from reserve US Treasuries and cash-like assets.
  Profit from issuance, redemption fees, and transaction pipeline revenue.

• Major Points to Convey:
  While it was possible to achieve a structure resembling ‘risk-free revenue’ at the peak of the interest rate cycle, it is not sustainable.

• Header: 7 Alternative Business Models in a Falling/Zero-Rate Environment.

• Details:
  1) Payment revenue based on network fees and merchant discount rates (MDR).
  2) Royalty programs similar to ‘staking’ offering fee rebates and refunds.
  3) Indirect value returns through self-token buyback/burn rules instead of direct revenue sharing.
  4) Providing benefits through points and vouchers outside of regulatory boundaries while avoiding security risks.
  5) Tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) and short-term credit products to transfer part of prime earnings to users.
  6) Subscription models for corporate APIs and data services (payment, settlement, currency risk management).
  7) Optimizing on/off-ramp infrastructure fees and traffic partnerships.

• Major Points to Convey:
  When the 0% interest rate phase arrives, issuers who pivot from ‘interest-based’ to ‘network, data, and payment-based’ models will survive.

Trade and Payment Battlefields: The Next Stage After Tariffs May Be ‘Forced Payment Rails’

• Header: The Ripple Effect of Targeting Corporates.

• Details:
  When large retailers, manufacturers, and platforms adopt bank-type stablecoins, the transition to retail payments will accelerate exponentially through consumer incentives.
  Discounts linked to trade finance, promissory notes, and shipping documents will create actual ROI.

• Major Points to Convey:
  The next round of tariff wars may involve pressure for “you must settle using our rails.”
  If policy drives come into play, the expansion speed may be faster than expected.

• Header: The Niche That Opens for the Open Type.

• Details:
  Capital control environments in emerging markets, cross-border payments for freelancers and B2C, and DeFi collateral and derivatives.

• Major Points to Convey:
  In this area, open stablecoins perform a social function of ‘access to dollars’.

Risk Matrix: Variables That Must Be Reflected in the 2026 Economic Outlook

• Header: Reserve and Market Risk.

• Details:
  Liquidity stress in short-term treasuries during a large-scale redemption rush.
  Price disconnect and de-pegging risks when mixing RWA and deposit tokens.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Risks arise not from “asset safety” but from “liquidity speed.”

• Header: Regulatory and Jurisdictional Fragmentation.

• Details:
  Compliance with KYC/AML regulations by country, address freezing, sanctions compliance, and dependence on chain monitoring tools.

• Major Points to Convey:
  The more jurisdictions diverge, the more fragmented liquidity becomes.
  Bridge and interoperability layers will become systemically important infrastructure.

Monitoring Checklist of 10 Key Signals

1) Trends in the holdings of US Treasuries by top stablecoins and the frequency of reserve disclosures.
2) The proportion of stablecoin payments in spot crypto transactions.
3) Progress in discussions on stablecoin payment legislation at the US federal level.
4) Announcements and pilot scopes of the GSIB alliance and bank consortiums.
5) On-chain RWA Total Value Locked (TVL) and the proportion of tokenized short-term credit products.
6) Incentives for stablecoin payments provided by large corporations and payment service providers.
7) Comparison metrics for fees and settlement times in cross-border payments.
8) Decreases in on/off-ramp fees and expansions in available countries.
9) Transparency in redemption service level agreements (SLA) and policies on blacklists and freezes.
10) Multi-chain deployment strategies and liquidity concentration by chain.

Execution Plans for Investors, Corporates, and Financial Institutions

• Header: Individual Investors.

• Details:
  Check issuer risks through the composition of reserves, frequency of audits, and redemption history.
  Assume that earnings will shift from ‘interest’ to ‘fee refunds and royalties’.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Don’t just focus on DeFi interest; look at the issuer’s network effects and cost structure.

• Header: Corporate Finance and Trade.

• Details:
  Separate wallets for bank-type and open-type stablecoins to manage payments, settlements, and liquidity concurrently.
  Quantify effects such as discount rates and reduced settlement periods when using the same rail as supply chain partners.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Open a testbed by converting a portion of cash-like assets to ‘on-chain working capital’ in 2025.

• Header: Banks and Fintech.

• Details:
  Line up offerings for tokenized deposits, payment stablecoins, and RWA.
  Invest in key utilities such as APIs, Know Your Transaction (KYT)/Anti-Money Laundering (AML), chain analysis, and oracles.

• Major Points to Convey:
  The battle in 2026 is not over products but arises from the bundling of ‘rails + data + regulatory compliance’.

Scenario Tree 2026-2028: Three Divergent Futures

• Header: Scenario A – Dominance of Bank-led Rails.

• Details:
  In corporate and trade payments, bank stablecoins become the de facto standard, with open types converging around DeFi.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Dollar hegemony secures a safety net as a ‘regulatory-friendly digital dollar’.

• Header: Scenario B – Dual Coexistence.

• Details:
  Bank types grow in the real economy, while open types develop in financial innovation and cross-border retail.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Liquidity is divided, but mutual bridging and clearing layers drive growth.

• Header: Scenario C – Regulatory Choke and Fragmentation.

• Details:
  National barriers grow, leading to differing liquidity premiums across chains.

• Major Points to Convey:
  Rising costs and innovation slowdowns accompany increased opportunity costs in network choice.

Conclusion: It’s Not About ‘Who’ Will Win, But ‘Where and What’ Will Win

Dollar hegemony is not defended by a single stablecoin.
The division of roles between bank types and open types, the transition of profit models due to interest cycles, and the redesign of trade and B2B payments must all proceed simultaneously.
The key to the 2026 economic forecast is ‘rail selection’ and ‘cost structure’.
The winner will be the one who understands both regulation and technology while sharing tangible benefits with users.
What is needed now is not a forecast but a deployment.

< Summary >

• In 2024-2025, stablecoins absorbed the demand for US Treasuries, becoming the auxiliary engine of dollar hegemony.
• In 2026, the bank consortium (strong in corporate payments) and crypto natives (strong in DeFi and retail) are likely to coexist in a dual structure.
• When the 0% interest climate arrives, the issuers’ interest income model will collapse, and they will need to transition to focus on payments, data, and royalties.
• In trade payments, when policy drives emerge, the pressure for “settle using our rails” may become a reality.
• Continuously monitor the 10-item checklist and deploy execution plans for individuals, corporations, and financial institutions in 2025.

[Related articles…]

• The 2026 Stablecoin War and the Battle of Bank Consortiums
• US Treasuries and Stablecoin Interest Rate Cycle Risks

Additional note: This article is based on assumptions about specific individuals and administrations and does not constitute investment advice.
Since policies and regulations can change significantly, be sure to check the latest disclosures and primary materials.
Continuously tracking the intersection of the global economic outlook and digital assets is the optimal defense.

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– “기축 통화 패권 전쟁이 시작됐다” 스테이블 코인의 금융 혁명 | 경읽남과 토론합시다 | 정구태 대표, 박혜진 교수 2편

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