● Bank Panic Sparks Policy Put, Trump Market Shield – Nasdaq Tech Reboot

Trump’s “Market Defense” Communication, the Paradox of Regional Bank Turmoil, and the Q4 Nasdaq & Big Tech Refocusing Scenario – A Comprehensive Summary

This article focuses on three key points.

First, the mechanism by which regional bank issues can paradoxically act as a “policy put” for the US stock market.

Second, what the decision to release inflation data during a shutdown phase signifies for interest rates and the Nasdaq.

Third, the interpretation of messages from Trump and his key aides, and the main points of capital reallocation during the Q4 big tech earnings season.

Market Briefing: Volatility is High, Yet the Indices Have Almost Not Dropped

While the US stock market has corrected only about 1% from its peak, the perceived volatility has widened.

Even though the fear & greed index reached the fear territory, prices are ambiguously holding within a box range.

In summary, tactical responses to individual events are more advantageous than directional bets.

Regional Bank Issues: Not a Déjà Vu of 2023, but a Trigger for “Policy Put” Activation

The bankruptcy related to auto parts and loss disclosures by some financial firms have intensified domino effect concerns.

However, unlike the 2023 SVB incident, this case is characterized by dispersed impacts, speed, and causes.

At that time, liquidity contraction was the root cause, whereas now it is largely an issue of individual credit matters being overinterpreted.

The key factor is “precedent.”

The Fed’s BTFP in 2023 already unveiled the manual for liquidity conversion.

Even if the systemic risk is not as strong, increased stress can act as a catalyst for an earlier easing signal.

As a result, expectations for a rate cut increase and the expansion of multiples for growth stocks may resume.

In other words, bad news for regional banks can paradoxically be favorable for the Nasdaq and big tech.

White House & Trump Messages: Systematization of “Market Defense” Communication

When the market was shaken by US-China issues, the risk was immediately cut off with comments like “Don’t worry about China.”

As concerns over regional banks grew, high-level officials repeatedly stated “It’s already being addressed.”

Kevin Hassett (former White House economic adviser and a prominent candidate for the next Fed chair) also emphasized sufficient bank reserves and proactive measures.

Regarding the shutdown, he managed market anxiety by indicating that its impact relative to growth is minimal and that an agreement before it becomes prolonged is expected.

In summary, the playbook of “news risk → immediate communication → market reassurance” is in effect.

Proceeding with Inflation Data Release Amid a Shutdown: The Signal is Clear

The decision to proceed with the inflation data release amid a shutdown is akin to placing a bet on optimism.

With stable oil prices and signs of weakening demand, it is judged that inflation is likely to slow down.

Once a slowdown in headline inflation is confirmed, expectations for a more accommodative guidance from the Fed could increase again.

Expectations of rate cuts are favorable for the overall US market, particularly for Nasdaq and big tech valuations.

US-China Negotiations: A Pre-Deal Scenario before APEC is Likely

Trump himself eased his previous stance of a 100% tariff, and his comments regarding Rare Earth sanctions hinted that excessive shocks would be avoided.

Quick follow-up between the Treasury Secretary and China’s Vice Premier on practical issues is underway.

The focus is on stabilizing supply chains and eliminating corporate uncertainty.

This outcome is directly connected to chains such as AI semiconductors, power & optical communications, as well as robotics & EV components.

Earnings Season Strategy: From Story to Earnings, the Flow of Money is Shifting

Over the past three months, big tech has stagnated or corrected while small-to-mid cap thematic stocks have seen rapid and sometimes overheated rises.

During the earnings season, capital tends to revert to stocks that can be verified by numbers.

Starting with companies like Netflix, Tesla, and Intel, the focus may shift to “where the numbers speak for themselves.”

The market has already factored in significant volatility of about ±8% for Tesla.

The recommended approach is a divided strategy with maintained cash positions and reduced leverage.

Asset Class View: Possible Cooling of Overheated Gold, Silver & Commodities, and a Short Break for Defense Stocks

If the tone of easing regarding US-China and Russia-Ukraine issues continues, the short-term rally in safe assets might take a breather.

On the other hand, heightened expectations for rate cuts may bring growth stock premiums back into focus.

While oil prices could be pressured by easing geopolitical tensions and weaker demand, inventory and OPEC factors still need to be monitored.

In-depth Analysis of the AI Trend: 2025 Will See a Shift from “Training to Inference” and a Battle to Resolve Power & Cooling Bottlenecks

The AI Capex from hyperscalers is on track to be maintained or increased, and the focus of investment is shifting from training to inference infrastructure.

NVIDIA is transitioning to its H200 and B100 series, AMD is expanding its MI300 series, and custom ASICs are gaining market share in specific workloads.

Secondary beneficiaries include HBM memory, high-bandwidth packaging, glass substrates, optical modules, power semiconductors, and cooling & power infrastructure.

In corporate IT, the focus is now on proving the ROI of AI agents and copilots.

Adoption is spreading first in verticals where ROI can be quickly demonstrated (call centers, software development, sales & customer service automation).

If US-China negotiations conclude, uncertainties in delivery for optical components for telecommunications and servers, as well as power & cooling equipment, could diminish.

China’s five-year plan is likely to strengthen domestic production in robotics, electric vehicles, autonomous driving, and AI semiconductors.

Rare Earth elements are essential for EV motors and server motors, so excessive export restrictions could be mutually damaging.

Therefore, a “two-track” approach of a hardline message combined with practical compromise is likely.

Calendar Check for This Week

Netflix earnings announcement.

Tesla’s earnings, guidance, margin, demand, and AI roadmap comments.

Intel earnings and the tone regarding PC & data center demand.

Inflation data release and shifts in rate expectations.

Updates on US-China practical-level meetings and preparations for the APEC summit.

Risk Management: Rapidly Changing News, Policy Curveballs, and Regulatory Issues

Policy communication is swift and strong.

Positive and negative headlines alternate, potentially causing abnormal volatility surges.

Avoid excessive leverage and theme concentration, and set your stop-loss and diversification rules in advance.

Key Points Highlighted That Other Channels Might Miss

Policy isn’t only about interest rates.

This “market defense” is functioning as policy itself through communication.

Proceeding with the inflation data release during a shutdown is a signal of confidence in slowing inflation, and it preemptively pressures the Fed’s guidance.

The regional bank issue, thanks to the BTFP precedent in 2023, has created a shortcut from “systemic risk → easing transition.”

The “pre-deal” strategy before APEC is a compromise that minimizes the real shock from tariffs and Rare Earth elements while securing political leverage.

AI investment is shifting its focus from “model competition” to the infrastructure for power, cooling, and optics.

During the earnings season, the earnings and order intake tone of the infrastructure chain will be a turning point for value re-rating.

Practical Positioning Guide (Personal Opinion)

There is significant uncertainty in direction and many catalysts.

Maintaining 20-30% cash as a defense, adopting a segmented approach mainly centered on large-cap stocks, and managing risks around events are advisable.

The structural top and bottom of the US stock market will be determined by Fed liquidity expectations and earnings.

Let’s update our checklist, focusing primarily on big tech with numbers to back them up.

Core Keywords Insertion Guide

The body of the text reflects core keywords related to the US stock market, the Fed, interest rates, the Nasdaq, and big tech.

< Summary >

Regional bank concerns, thanks to the 2023 precedent, act as a paradoxical catalyst by accelerating expectations for an “easing transition.”

Proceeding with the inflation data release during a shutdown fuels confidence in a slowdown in inflation and increases expectations for rate cuts.

The rapid communication by Trump and his key aides is essentially functioning as a “market defense” policy.

In the earnings season, there is a strong possibility that capital will re-concentrate from story stocks to big tech with solid numbers.

AI investments are shifting from training to inference and from semiconductors to power, cooling, and optical infrastructure.

[Related Posts…]

The 2025 Nasdaq Scenario Driven by the Fed’s Liquidity Conversion

How a Pre-Deal US-China Agreement before APEC Could Impact Big Tech

*Source: [ 소수몽키 ]

– 증시 철통 방어에 들어간 트럼프, 악재 쓰나미 물리칠까

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● Planned Dollar Collapse, Debasement-Fueled Bubble

IMF’s Identified “Exchange Rate Aberrant Signal”: The Weak Dollar Is a Planned Strategy, and Debasement Trade Transforms the Asset Market

This article captures the core points ranging from the differences between the 2018 and 2025 trade wars, the intent behind the falling Dollar Index, the so-called “Myron Report” which outlines a planned weak dollar, the under-the-surface second Plaza Accord (a unilateral approach), and how debasement trade pushes up asset prices while eroding purchasing power.
It specifically details the pressure on foreign exchange reserves’ “usage fee” that other news outlets rarely cover, the reuse of the logic from the Gold Reserve Act, and the mechanism that forces U.S. manufacturing reshoring through the simultaneous operation of tariffs and a weak dollar.
Organized with the core keywords of global economic uncertainty, exchange rates, the dollar, interest rates, and liquidity, it is arranged for immediate use in investment and management decision-making.

Headline News Summary: The “Exchange Rate Aberrant Signal” Observed by the IMF and the 2025 Weak Dollar

– The IMF’s October Economic Outlook presumes that “the economy drifts in a foggy global environment” and noted abnormal signals in exchange rates.
– In 2018, during Trump 1.0’s trade war, the Dollar Index (DXY) rose, but in the 2025 phase of Trump 2.0’s trade war, the DXY shows a reverse trend with a decline.
– In response to the question, “Can the dollar be weak even with a high won–dollar exchange rate?” the answer is: even if the dollar weakens, if the won weakens comparatively more, the won–dollar rate can rise. In other words, both a global weak dollar and a domestic weak currency in Korea can occur simultaneously.
– The IMF’s identified focal point is “the structural change in the tariff–exchange rate interaction.” This cycle’s weak dollar appears less to be a coincidence and more of a “policy design.”

2018 vs 2025: The Changing Dynamics of Tariffs and Exchange Rates

– 2018: When the United States raised tariffs, its trading partners such as China responded with currency devaluation. A trade-off operated where a 20% tariff was offset by a 20% devaluation. The Dollar Index experienced relative strength.
– 2025: In the same trade war, the Dollar Index falls. The reason is that the United States, aiming to neutralize the counterpart’s “currency devaluation card,” intentionally weakens the dollar to force a reduction in export prices.
– Case example (Japan’s exports to the U.S.): When tariffs and a weak dollar are operated simultaneously, U.S. importers pass the price reduction onto exporters. In response, exporters either lower prices or opt for reshoring by moving production facilities to the United States.
– Conclusion: The 2025 trade war aims at shifting the value chain, utilizing a dual mechanism of tariffs and a weak dollar.

The Real Background Behind the Weak Dollar: The “Myron Report” and Planned Diplomacy

– Lesson from 2018: Tariffs alone were unable to stop counterpart currency devaluation responses.
– 2025 design: The approach known as the “Myron Report” involves operating both tariff and exchange rate policies simultaneously, preemptively neutralizing the very strategy of countering devaluation.
– Objective: U.S. manufacturing reshoring, fine-tuning of supply chains, and internalization of strategic industries. Tariffs act as a “whip,” while a weak dollar applies “price pressure,” collectively enhancing the economic rationale for shifting production bases.

A Second Plaza Accord?: A Under-the-Surface Unilateral Approach Rather Than a Multilateral One

– The 1985 Plaza Accord: A multilateral public agreement to induce a weak dollar.
– Hypothetical scenario for 2025: An under-the-surface “Unilateral Currency Approach” is key. Instead of public consensus, informal bilateral pressures and transactions are at work.
– Measure 1: The imposition of a “usage fee” (1–2%) on foreign exchange reserves (within the framework of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, IEEPA). This increases the total cost of holding and using dollars, structurally recalibrating dollar demand.
– Measure 2: Reusing the logic of the Gold Reserve Act (1934) to pressure a reduction in gold holdings and, by substitution, to demand an expansion in U.S. Treasury purchases. Reduced gold → a reallocation of demand among the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.
– Measure 3: Formal joint statements appear to “respect market principles,” but actual coordination on exchange rate policies takes place “under the table.”

Debasement Trade: Asset Prices Rise While Purchasing Power Declines

– Policy package: Accelerated interest rate cuts, signals for ending quantitative tightening (QT), and fiscal expansion (raising the debt ceiling and increasing Treasury issuance) to expand liquidity. Both interest rates and liquidity align in a simultaneous “easing” direction.
– Mechanism: The money supply increases while the amount of gold remains constant → nominal asset prices rise while the currency’s value declines (rearranging inflationary pressures). The relative appeal of risk and alternative assets such as stocks, housing, gold, and bitcoin increases.
– Evidence framing: Even if the S&P 500 rises in dollar terms, it falls when measured in gold (for example, an interpretation suggesting a -13% performance against gold since 2020). In other words, as the “value of money” is eroded, prices appear to rise, creating an optical illusion.
– Alignment with the political calendar: The strategy converges with the aim of maximizing voter-perceived benefits (rising asset prices) before the 2026 midterm elections. The intention is to lower inflation gradually while significantly enhancing the “asset effect.”

Implications for Korea: The Simultaneous Reality of a High Won–Dollar Exchange Rate and a Weak Dollar

– Paradoxical interpretation: Even with a global weak dollar, if the won is weaker comparatively, the won–dollar exchange rate can rise. This may continue to burden Korea’s import prices and inflation trajectory.
– Export strategy: U.S. exports face increased price pressure. The model of “U.S. production → exports to the United States and third countries” could become comparatively advantageous in such an exchange rate and tariff environment.
– Portfolio: Expand exchange rate hedges, restructure the maturity profile of dollar-denominated debt, diversify contract currencies for raw materials and key components, and review the proportions of gold, cash, and core technology assets.
– Policy implications: Achieving a “triple balance” is crucial – smoothing exchange rates while simultaneously optimizing price stability and growth. It is necessary to secure a channel that minimizes information asymmetry with U.S. monetary and fiscal lines.

Checklist in Numbers: Indicators to Monitor Immediately

– Dollar Index (DXY) vs. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (TWI): Check for directional divergence.
– After-tariff USD Import Price (reflecting tariffs): Indicator to measure the extent to which exporters pass on price cuts.
– Interest rate gaps between the U.S. and major countries, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path inferred from the futures market (bets on cuts within this year/next year).
– M2, reverse repo, and Treasury issuance calendar: The net flow of liquidity (inflows/outflows).
– Changes in the proportion of U.S. Treasury holdings overseas (especially in Asia/oil money) and signals of adjustments in gold holdings.

Strategic Guide for Corporations and Investors

– Corporations: Reevaluate the NPV of U.S. production options (reflecting tariffs, exchange rates, logistics, and subsidies). Expedite the roadmap for localization for items with a high proportion of U.S. sales.
– Finance: Hedge against exchange rate volatility (through futures, options, NDFs), manage the duration of dollar assets, and assess the policy sensitivity of the proportions of gold and alternative assets.
– Risks: If the weak dollar accelerates too quickly, emerging market currencies may experience sharp volatility (capital outflows) along with an expansion of trade credit risk. When the policy curve transitions, manage the risks of overvalued assets accordingly.

Key Points Not Covered Elsewhere, Summarized Separately

– The simultaneous operation of tariffs and a weak dollar imposes an economic compulsion for reshoring. It remedies the shortcomings of 2018, which relied solely on tariffs.
– The second Plaza Accord might be a combination of “unilateral, under-the-table approaches” rather than a “public multilateral agreement.” Non-price pressures such as imposing a usage fee on foreign exchange reserves and inducing U.S. Treasury purchases by reducing gold holdings are key tools.
– Debasement trade provides voters with an illusion of increased wealth, even though purchasing power declines. Nominal wealth increases, but the currency’s purchasing power is eroded.
– When remeasuring the strength of the S&P 500 “in gold terms,” a different conclusion arises. In investment decisions, the choice of the base currency is crucial to the perceived yield.

< Summary >

The IMF highlights an “exchange rate aberrant signal” in this cycle, and the 2025 trade war is a designed game that accompanies a weak dollar.
Instead of a public agreement, it induces a weak dollar through unilateral, under-the-table pressure, forcing companies to lower prices and reshore production.
At the same time, with interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion driving debasement trade, asset prices are pushed upward while the currency’s value declines.
For Korea, in an environment where a high won–dollar exchange rate coexists with a global weak dollar, it is essential to simultaneously pursue exchange rate hedging and localization strategies.
Constantly monitor key indicators (DXY, TWI, import prices, M2, overseas Treasury holdings) and the timing of policy measures.

[Related Articles…]

Era of the Weak Dollar, Accelerated Restructuring of the Manufacturing Value Chain
IMF’s Warning on Exchange Rate Aberrant Signals and an Investment Strategy Checklist

*Source: [ 경제 읽어주는 남자(김광석TV) ]

– IMF가 포착한 ‘환율 이상신호’ : 달러가 흔들리고 있다[경읽남 215화]

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● Tesla Energy Coup, RoboTaxi Permit Bomb, China EV Price War, AI Power Goldrush

Tesla “ESS is Becoming the Core Business” Conversion Signal, Robo-Taxi Permitting Risks, One-Year Outlook on Chinese EV Restructuring, and a 100 Million Portfolio (Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir) Action Plan

This article contains two main points.
First, it analyzes when to buy by interpreting the structural shift from automobiles to ESS in Tesla’s performance highlights with numbers and regulations.
Second, it organizes in chronological order the shock that the hurdles of robo-taxi and Optimus permits and the oversupply of Chinese electric vehicles will have on the global economy and stock valuations within one year.
Additionally, it outlines the pathway whereby the surge in power demand for AI data centers lifts ESS, Nvidia, and Palantir simultaneously, and even explains the often overlooked revenue sources such as “power market software and capacity revenues.”
It comprehensively covers when to hold cash and strike, how to allocate a 100 million portfolio, and where risks may emerge.

News at a Glance: Key Briefing

• Tesla Energy (ESS) sales and margins are structurally increasing, clearly elevating it from a “secondary business” to a “core revenue source.”
• Once the gross margin remains sustainable above 20%, profit strength will be maintained regardless of the automobile cycle slowdown.
• Robo-taxi and Optimus face inherent risks due to the “permit barriers” imposed by state and local governments rather than technology.
• Chinese electric vehicles will trigger a global restructuring of the market within one year as inventory pressures and intense price competition intensify.
• The surge in power demand from AI data centers is boosting ESS demand and is connected to the AI innovation momentum of Nvidia and Palantir.
• The ideal timing for buying is during periods of increased volatility driven by regulatory variables, price wars, and margin announcements.

Tesla Update: Shifting from Automobiles to Energy (ESS), the “Profit Engine” is Changing

• Header: Sales Mix Transition and Margin Structure
• Details:
  1) Once the ESS gross margin achieves the 20%+ bracket, it will drive overall corporate margins despite automobile price cuts.
  2) The U.S. standalone storage Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and the volatile structure of the power market enhance the economics of battery storage.
  3) Expanding Megapack production capacity and regional diversification reduce transportation costs and lead times, creating additional margins.
  4) Operating software (Autobidder, power trading optimization) adds high software margins compared to hardware.
• Main takeaway: Independently of vehicle deliveries, ESS stabilizes cash flow with long-term contracts and power market revenues.
  As a result, the valuation focus shifts from “vehicle ASP” to “recurring energy revenue.”
  This trend acts as a shield that is less sensitive to global economic fluctuations and interest rates.

Robo-Taxi & Optimus: Permit Sequence Determines Timeline More Than Technology

• Header: Regulatory Checklist and Investment Points
• Details:
  1) Both state DMV/PUC permits and local government road occupancy and operation permits are required, embedding political and social risks.
  2) Key approval variables include the submission of safety records, data logging standards, insurance/liability subjects, fare systems, and remote support (teleoperation) regulations.
  3) A phased expansion from trial runs → limited paid operations → expanded operational areas is typical.
  4) For Optimus, stabilization in industrial safety regulations, workplace certifications, production rates, and defect rates is the gateway to commercialization.
• Main takeaway: For robo-taxis and humanoid robots, “the speed of accumulating permits and safety data” is the core driver of valuation rather than a one-off breakthrough.
  The actual buying strategy is to adopt a strategy of gradual buying when news of permit delays causes a sharp drop.

Oversupply of Chinese Electric Vehicles: Global Landscape Reshaping Within One Year

• Header: Price Wars, Trade Barriers, and Tesla’s Strategic Choices
• Details:
  1) Ongoing domestic inventory pressures and export drives in China intensify global price competition.
  2) U.S. and European tariffs and subsidy regulations are shifting supply routes to third regions.
  3) Although battery raw material costs have stabilized after declines, differences in cost structures among companies widen the gap.
  4) Tesla aims to absorb the shock of price wars through software revenues (FSD), ESS expansion, and manufacturing efficiency improvements.
• Main takeaway: Within 12 months, subtle impacts on the global economy and inflation will occur.
  Electric vehicle price declines might reduce headline inflation, but trade barriers could push up parts and logistics costs.
  In this environment, changes in the value chain — cost, subsidies, and tariffs — will be the key variables influencing stock price movements rather than interest rate directions.

The Intersection of AI and Power: Connecting Real Demand with Nvidia and Palantir

• Header: AI Data Center Power Demand → ESS Investment → Software Revenue
• Details:
  1) As peak power demand in AI data centers surges, investments in power grid expansion and storage devices accompany it.
  2) Nvidia directly benefits from the increased demand for AI training and inference, spurring data center investments as power constraints ease.
  3) Palantir expands its revenue through its integration of operational data in utilities, governments, and industrial fields with its AI operating system (OS).
  4) Tesla’s data from vehicles, robots, and energy operations will later enhance “data network effects” that boost software margins.
• Main takeaway: AI-driven innovation extends the investment cycle for power infrastructure, creating conditions where ESS and AI infrastructure stocks can experience concurrent upward trends.
  Structural demand remains robust even if the global economy slows down.

Designing a 100 Million Portfolio: A Combination of Tesla and “These Stocks” (Nvidia and Palantir)

• Header: Weight Distribution According to Risk Preference and Buying Timing
• Details:
  1) Conservative: Tesla 40%, Nvidia 40%, Palantir 20%.
  2) Growth-oriented: Tesla 50%, Nvidia 30%, Palantir 20%.
  3) Aggressive: Tesla 60%, Nvidia 20%, Palantir 20%.
• Main takeaway:
• Buying Timing Guidelines
  · Tesla: Gradually buy when news of robo-taxi permit delays, recalls, or price cuts cause a sharp drop.
  · Nvidia: Increase weight when issues such as demand slowdown, inventory concerns, or intensifying competition trigger adjustments.
  · Palantir: Buy at lower prices when dragged down by large contract gaps or revenue recognition timing issues.
• Example of Gradual Allocation
  · Divide purchases equally in stages at the -10%, -20%, and -30% drop levels.
• Risk Management
  · Limit the maximum individual allocation to 60%.
  · After reaching the break-even point, realize some profits while maintaining the principal.

Checkpoint Calendar: Earnings, Policies, and Facilities

• Header: An Event-Driven Approach
• Details:
  1) In Tesla’s quarterly earnings, pay attention to ESS sales, gross margins, and installation capacity (including order backlog).
  2) For robo-taxi, monitor the stages of approval by state and local governments and the disclosure of safety data.
  3) Track the expansion of Megapack factories, their operating rates, and changes in lead times.
  4) Stay updated on U.S. and EU trade policies/tariffs and subsidy policies toward China.
  5) Look out for announcements regarding 24/7 power purchase agreements (PPAs) in AI data centers and utility tenders for storage devices.
• Main takeaway: Although macro variables like interest rates and inflation are important, this sector is more strongly driven by “earnings indicators, regulations, and facility” triggers.

The Overlooked Core: The “Hidden” Revenue of ESS

• Header: Beyond Hardware – “Power Market Software and Capacity Revenue”
• Details:
  1) Capacity market: A structure that earns money for being on standby rather than generating power stabilizes ESS cash flow.
  2) Ancillary services revenue (frequency and reserve services): Batteries capable of short-term responses command higher prices.
  3) Differential settlements and spread trading: The time gap revenue from charging at lower prices and discharging at higher prices expands.
  4) Software revenue: Real-time bidding and scheduling software like Autobidder generate high-margin recurring revenue.
  5) The expansion of 24/7 zero-carbon power contracts: As big tech and AI data centers demand green power by time-of-use, ESS is elevated to essential infrastructure.
• Main takeaway: This “hidden” revenue accumulates steadily regardless of automobile ASPs and shipment volumes, offering high defensive strength against economic cycles and interest rate fluctuations.
  It is the basis for a long-term valuation premium.

Macroeconomics and Valuation: Global Economy, Interest Rates, and Inflation Framework

• Header: Understanding the Differential Sensitivities by Sector
• Details:
  1) Even if the global economy slows down, the structural demand for AI and power infrastructure remains robust.
  2) A drop in interest rates is favorable for valuation multiples, especially for ESS and software with high long-term cash flow proportions.
  3) Even if inflationary pressures resurface, the widening of power market spreads defends ESS profitability.
• Main takeaway: Even in periods of economic slowdown, the intersection of “AI innovation x power” is likely to provide relative excess returns.

Q&A Summary of Key Points

• Q: Should I buy right away or wait?
  A: It is advantageous to gradually buy during the -15% to -30% drop phases triggered by permit issues, recalls, or price cuts.
• Q: With a 100 million portfolio, what level of returns can be expected?
  A: Aim conservatively for an 8–12% compound annual return, and in a best-case scenario, target 15%+, though managing volatility is essential.
• Q: What is the most dangerous variable?
  A: The most dangerous variables are delays in robo-taxi permits, prolonged price wars originating in China, and temporary adjustments in the AI infrastructure investment cycle.
• Q: If you had to pick one number to monitor, what would it be?
  A: Tesla’s ESS gross margin. Whether it remains above 20% consistently determines the valuation floor.

• Tesla is shifting its “profit engine” by expanding ESS and its software.
• For robo-taxi and Optimus, the timeline is determined by the permit sequence rather than technology.
• The oversupply of Chinese EVs will shake up the price and trade dynamics within a year, increasing volatility.
• Surge in power demand from AI data centers acts as a catalyst for the concurrent growth of ESS, Nvidia, and Palantir.
• The 100 million portfolio strategy revolves around gradual buying of Tesla, Nvidia, and Palantir along with an event-driven approach.
  

[Related Articles…]

• The Day Tesla ESS Becomes the Core Business: Summary of the Power Market Revolution
• AI Data Center Power Battle: A Concise Summary of Nvidia and Power Stocks’ Collaborative Surge

*Source: [ 달란트투자 ]

– “1억도 필요없다” 테슬라와 이 주식 묻어라. 5년 뒤 뒤도 안보고 은퇴한다 | 강정수 박사 풀버전

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